Sierra Foothills
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Posts posted by Sierra Foothills
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4 hours ago, PBF81 said:
It is an interesting topic to discuss. To start, any semblance of newness always takes a handful of games, which can vary in number, for a steady-state to emerge.
At the end of the day however, the needle hasn't moved that much on game metrics. Brady's been the OC for the past five games, started with the Jets game. Since then we've averaged 27.8 PPG contrasted with the 26.2 PPG prior to that, for a marginal +1.6, an improvement but hardly earth-shattering, and still down from last season's 28.4 and with an easier schedule as well.
Our 1st-Downs have also increased marginally from 22 to 23.2, a +1.2.
Our total yards haven't increased at all for all intents and purposes, having bumped from 380 to 382.
The biggest difference as you point out is our running game, with Cook obviously being our primary ball carrier. His carries have increased from 12 to 17.6 per game on average. His receptions have increased by 1 from an average 2.8 to 3.8. So in that sense there's somewhat more balance to the offense run/pass.
The Dallas game is what has skewed everything statistically for both him and the team. In the other four games Cook has averaged a pedestrian 3.9 yards-per-carry. In all four of those games he's got 244 rushing yards, in the Dallas game he had 179 on 7.2 YPC. His YPC in the other four games were 4.3, 2.7, 5.8, and 3.5, with that 5.8 being his low carry (10) game in which he had 11, 12, and 15-yard runs.
His receptions have increased from an average 2.4 to 3.1, but his receiving yards have increased to 42.2 from 22.2, nearly doubling. Having said that, in our zero-sum-game of the same yards per game, Diggs' production has averaged a mere 4.6 receptions for an average of 40.4 yards, down from 7.3 catches for 86.8 YPG, fewer than half the yards. On a season, under Brady so far, Diggs' 17-game average is 78 catches for 687 yards and 3 TDs.
Having said that, our average number of pass attempts has dropped by 12 from 45.5 to 33.6, while our average number of carries has increased by 15 from 22.4 to 37.4. A good chunk of that is the skewed Dallas game where we ran 49 times and had only 16 pass plays. Nonetheless.
We'll be fully steady-state by the end of the season if we aren't already.
The referendum on this season is going to come down to the playoffs, against what is generally considered to be the weakest field in the AFC at least since Allen emerged in 2020. There's no dominant team and with Allen we arguably have the best offense in the AFC and more than a good enough defense to compliment it.
Great stuff. I think turnovers also have played a part in the turnaround.
To the OPs thesis, yes there is a ton of luck involved in sports. Anyone who's played sports or followed sports for a long time knows this. Bad luck can last an entire season OR MORE. Sample size and regression/progression to the mean average can take what sometimes seems like forever.
3 hours ago, BearNorth said:I suspect Bieniemy will get an interview if he is interested. He has a couple of rings, just saying.
Don't forget FWIW Bieniemy was a non-play calling OC with the Chiefs.
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Just now, Doc said:
They might have been targeting Berrios, he chose Miami and they panicked and upped their offer to Harty and he signed. It was a bad signing.
I suppose that's possible.
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58 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:
Is it me or does this guy just look ugly returning punts, even before his fumble that almost cost this last game he just looks totally lost and an accident waiting to happen... When you include his contribution as a WR and how much we paid him this was a terrible signing, in fact his cap humber at just over 4 mllion is higher then Hopkins cap number at 3.9 mllion with the Titans.
I was willing to give the Bills the benefit of the doubt on Harty because Beane's track record is pretty good and he certainly would know better than me who would be a good signing. That said:
- On March 16, 2023 which is the very day we signed Deonty Harty, the Dolphins signed Braxton Berrios.
- The Bills signed Harty to a 2 year $9.5 million contract with a $2.75 million signing bonus.
- The Dolphins signed Berrios to a 1 year $3.5 million contract with a $1.5 million signing bonus.
- Berrios is bigger, faster and largely had better combine numbers.
- Berrios has outperformed Harty as a receiver and as a runner over their 5 year playing careers.
- Berrios has also outperformed Harty as a punt returner 11.1 ypr vs 9.1 ypr.
It looks like we signed the wrong guy for more money.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deonte_Harty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braxton_Berrios
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrDe07.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BerrBr00.htm
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/deonte-harty-29629/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/braxton-berrios-25311/
37 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:Outside of that fumble he hasn’t been bad on punt returns……stop being a prisoner of the moment. He’s averaging 9 yards per return this season which is very good. 🙄
Harty sucks as a WR/gadget player, but as a punt returner he’s been just fine.
23 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:Like I said before you guys are prisoner of the moment. You guys see one bad thing a player does and y’all start threads acting like he’s been doing it all season... We saw the same thing with Cook…..ran outta bounds to avoid contact and thread after thread popped up about how he hasn’t broken a tackle in his life…..prisoner of the moment bs!
"Recency bias" is a really good term. Easier to write, too.
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2 hours ago, Billznut said:
Ravens better curb stomp these mother f’ers next week.
2 hours ago, UKBillFan said:Didn't expect any help from the Cowboys. Was the Ravens match up I was relying on. Cowboys took them closer than I expected.
2 hours ago, Einstein said:There is a silver lining to the Dolphins winning today. The Ravens will NEED to beat them next week in order to maintain the #1 seed. They will be highly motivated to win that game.
Reasons the Ravens win:
- They're better than Miami.
- They're playing at home.
Reasons the Fish win:
- They'll have 28 more hours of recovery time.
- The Ravens will be coming off an epic battle at San Francisco on MNF.
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Also, if Dan Quinn is such a great DC, how come he still doesn't realize that Tua is lefthanded?
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Dak really sucks. He had a one on one in the end zone with the defender's back turned and couldn't throw a back shoulder for the TD... he threw an uncatchable ball out of bounds.
Zero composure.
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His improved play has really put Stafford back on the stage...
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34 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
Need more from that Raheem shahid dude or whatever his name is for fantasy playoffs
Your metaphysical motivational skills are a bit lacking.
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I too believe that Breece Hall is a great player in a bad situation.
Still, getting James Cook where we did was great value. The 2022 NFL Draft RB retrospective:
Breece Hall 36
Kenneth Walker III 44
James Cook 63
Rachaad White 91
Tyrion Davis-Price 93
Brian Robinson Jr 98
Dameon Pierce 107
Zamir White 122
Isaiah Spiller 123
Pierre Strong Jr 128
Hassan Haskins 131
Tyler Allgeier 151
Snoop Connor 154
Jerome Ford 156
Kyren Williams 164
Ty Chandler 169
Kevin Harris 183
Tyler Badie 196
Keaontay Ingram 201
Trestan Ebner 203
Brittain Brown 250
Isiah Pacheco 251
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4 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:
I hate to say it, but their penalties definitely turned the game in the bills favor early. The roughing the punter, roughing the passer and the hit on Shakir. Any of those aren’t called, totally different game IMO. That’s how much impact the refs can have on a game
I don't totally agree. Yes, there were 3 personal fouls/roughings that extended the Bills offensive drives.
But penalties were not the reason that Dallas couldn't generate any offense all game long.
And the Cowboys inability/unwillingness to stop the run was the biggest factor in the game, IMO.
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5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
Are people having trouble tonight following the conversation? OldMan said the Bills haven't had a running performance like that since OJ. Running. What difference does it OJ's receiving make in a conversation about Cook's running.
But, if you want to have a conversation about OJ's receiving ability, he was an excellent receiver. He was a receiver before he became a running back, and as a receiver with the Bills, he was excellent. He wasn't targeted as often as Thurman, but his yards per reception were better than Thurman's. His touchdown production as a receiver was better, on a percentage basis, than Thurman's
Great as Thurman was, put OJ in the K-gun and the Bills might have won four Super Bowls in a row.
1 minute ago, K-9 said:He was fine as a receiver, but simply wasn’t utilized as such very often. Most of the great running backs in that era weren’t really utilized as such. He had a decent YPR average when he was here though. Better than Thurman’s for what it’s worth.
I find these comparisons absurd though. OJ was a legit threat to score from anywhere on the field on every play. If TT had OJ’s world class speed, he would have been, too. But he didn’t and that’s why we never thought TT was gonna break off 80 yard runs with regularity. Whereas we always had that feeling with OJ. You literally felt it in your gut on every run.
First off, OJ Simpson was one of the top 5 running backs of all time.
I love Thurman but he benefitted from being on much better teams than OJ. Thurman played in 21 playoff games. OJ played in 1.
OJ's playoff appearance was in 1974 against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Against the vaunted Steel Curtain Defense he ran for 49 yards on 15 carries. In their next two playoff games en route to the Lombardi Trophy the Steelers gave up 29 yards rushing on 21 carries to the Oakland Raiders in the AFC Championship Game and 17 yards rushing on 21 rushes to the Minnesota Vikings in the Super Bowl. To summarize:
OJ Simpson 15 carries 49 yards, 3 receptions 37 yards, 1 TD
Oakland 21 carries 29 yards, zero offensive TDs
Minnesota 21 carries 17 yards, zero offensive TDs
Oakland + Minnesota 42 carries 46 yards, zero offensive TDs
Cook is stylistically unlike OJ or Thurman but he's more similar to Thurman IMO.
Cook has an explosiveness more similar to OJ but he exhibits the patience and some other traits of Thurman. OJ was not a patient runner... he dictated to the defense. Cook looked like Thurman today, getting small, finding creases, waiting in holes, hiding behind blockers, and then bursting through openings.
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Apparently mine is a minority opinion but this seems like two good teams playing at a high level. I've been very entertained.
I'm really enjoying this game... and that doesn't even take into account how many SNF games are clunkers.
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9 minutes ago, Heathcliff said:
Side Note: Cam Lewis had a good game. Is he heir apparent for Hyde’s spot next year?
I'm zero surprised that Cam Lewis played well. He usually shows well when given the opportunity.
Also he wouldn't be a staple of special teams if he wasn't a good football player.
I noticed he played deep safety most of the time but came up and played slot corner on several snaps. I love his versatility.
Cam is another player that our coaching staff trusts more than our fanbase.
6 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:Was there any doubt in anyone’s mind that we would lose?
I was fully expecting the Bills to win... but I absolutely did not envision this level of domination.
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Not spiking the ball is acceptable... but you can't then throw it to the flat to a player who's not gonna get out of bounds.
Just now, 1onemangang7 said:Took Dak about 6 tries to throw a pick. benford dropped 2 and caught 1.
And Jordan Phillips had one in his mitts too.
On the subject of Dak Prescott... the year he wins an MVP will be a year where every great player in the league has a down year.
But I sure hope he plays like an MVP next week.
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1 hour ago, racecitybills said:
The bills tush push? The Shnow Plow?
- The Buffalo Shuffalo
- The Josh Mosh
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Did you check the originators, Fathead?
https://fathead.com/products/m4900-00166?_pos=6&_sid=c787328f0&_ss=r
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I mentioned this in another thread but it needs to be posted here too:
As of earlier this season there were fans here roasting the Bills for taking Kaiir Elam at 23... especially in the context of the Jets taking Breece Hall at 36.
In that same 2022 draft the Bills took James Cook at 63.
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1 hour ago, Juice_32 said:
Makes me feel better about all those times I was screaming at my TV because we would stop running the ball even though it was working.
1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:If I had a dollar for ever time I typed run the ball more over last two seasons I'd have a million dollars. Not a peep today. Keep running the ball. I love it. When they stack the box throwing will be that much easier but honestly we're good enough you still run the ball just to keep them honest.
You guys were in the minority on this message board. During the Dorsey Era Offensive Identity Crisis (26 regular season games, 2 playoff games), most people here were saying one of two things:
- "Let Josh be Josh." (Put the team on Josh's shoulders)
- "Any Offensive Coordinator who takes the ball out of Josh Allen's hands is an idiot." (This was stated repeatedly to the point that it seemed like a majority opinion)
1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:Imagine the irony if the Bills made the big show in a year when everyone shoveled dirt on ‘em !
Actually you could see this coming a mile away. Yes, many people here are "the sky is falling" types of fans but there's lots of people here who understand that the NFL season is a marathon and that you want to be playing your best football when the temperatures drop.
It's truly amazing how many people here forgot that the Bills were 7-6 in 2021 and won their last 4 games of the regular season.
1 hour ago, jethro_tull said:Cook emerging as a star is just what this team needed !
1 hour ago, Putin said:Cook is turning into a superstar
This would be a good time to mention that before this season began there were MANY people who were spouting "The Bills took Kaiir Elam at 23 when they could have drafted Breece Hall at 36.
In that same 2022 draft the Bills drafted James Cook at 63.
1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:yep.
Hey where did all the legions of "Fire McDermott" posters go to? Where did they go? That's all you saw two weeks ago>. Fair weather fans they are.
Yes they are. I'm still ambivalent about McDermott but two things have to be said in his favor:
- The Tyler Dunne 3 part series seems to have proven that the players support their Head Coach.
- You have to credit McDermott for both giving Dorsey a fair chance and then recognizing that he could no longer wait for the offense to get their act together.
1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:We beat the Dolphins by more points but this felt even more dominant. We throttled the most hyped offense in the league
It's interesting. IF the Bills offense didn't dominate today, it seemed like the Cowboys offense still would have struggled. They were not successful in anything they did and it seemed like the Bills had cracked the code on the McCarthy Offense. It's rare to get that feeling that the Bills out-strategized an opponent but it certainly felt that way today with our D and their O.
Also, the Bills Defense seems to be coming together. It's a real kick in the teeth to have lost Milano, DaQuan, and Tre White and then Micah and Epenesa but the coaching and player development seems to be showing that the Bills are a pretty sound organization. Guys like Dodson, Dane, Cam Lewis, Siran and others are getting appreciable playing time and the defense seems to be improving week to week.
1 hour ago, Fallser said:I'll check in on him by dumping a bucket of toilet water on him...
I wouldn't piss on that piece of crap if he was on fire.
57 minutes ago, wjag said:Was thinking today that the Bills early season injuries were a sort of blessing. They had many games to matriculate in the backups and they played like Matt who today? Beane did his job and got us a big body to replace Jones and Douglas to replace Tre. Dodson stepped up as well.
Apparently the talent assessment and player development on this team is better than a lot of people on this message board believed it to be. The faith that this team has placed in many of its players was not shared by the fanbase in most cases.
47 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:reminded me of Thurman vs. the Fish…several times.
29 minutes ago, Gman10 said:Wow!!'
My buddy who is an older bills fan said he hasn't seen running that good (Cook) since Thurman Thomas...thoughts ?
Yeah, more so than OJ.
Thurman used to get small and patient and play hide and seek with defenders... disappearing into the lines. Cook was showing that same quality today. There were numerous runs where no one laid a hand on him till 7-8 yards downfield.
Cook's patience, feel, and instincts behind a big O-line was very reminiscent of the Super Bowl years.
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2 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:
My thoughts after the game were that KC adjusted at the half and buffalo didn't do good enough to respond. Josh did a couple josh things and the defense held up.
I agree that KC made better halftime adjustments than we did. I also thought they outschemed us on both sides of the ball.
Josh was pressured as much if not more than in any game this year. I also noticed that when Josh was flushed he was always flushed to his left.
Another thing that jumped out at me was the horizontal throws in bunch formations. The Bills suck at these plays and should either redesign them or scrap them. By contrast it seemed that when KC ran these types of plays that they were successful.
Granted the Bills offense is one of the best in the league statistically but I feel like the best OCs in the league (Reid and Shanahan to name two) scheme players open better than the other teams. It seems like the Bills sometimes really struggle to get free runners in the defensive secondary.
JMO.
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The Chiefs D has been coordinated by Steve Spagnuolo for the last 5 years.
I don't recall that their D under him has ever ranked very highly but they tend to play well in big games and he seems to scheme pressure better than most coordinators. I realize Chris Jones is an elite player but I think Spags does a great job creating pressure.
By contrast I was watching the Bills pass rush a bit today and though we sent extra rushers quite often, as has been the case most of the year it seemed like our pressures were too vanilla and easily blocked for the most part. By my untrained eye it seems like McDermott and Eric Washington need to use more stunts and play more games in the pass rush.
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Two things:
- This feels like the makeup game after the Bills had been screwed by the officials in Philly.
- We're talking about Kadarius Toney... classic great athlete with a 10 cent brain. His list of missed mental assignments and diva tendencies made it easy for the Giants to write him off not long after taking him in the 1st round. This guy is a complete moron and not someone who should be given the benefit of the doubt in any situation. Actually if I were Andy Reid I would use this latest *****up to light a fire under his ass. Why would any coach run to the defense of a chronically underachieving and mistake-prone player? If I were his coach I'd have Chris Jones grab him by the shoulder pads and shake him violently until some small glimmer of comprehension flickered in his eyes.
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I was watching in the SF Bay Area. I assumed because it was the national game that it would not be available on YouTube TV/Sunday Ticket.
I went to Hulu to watch the CBS feed (local affiliate KPIX). Buf-KC was listed but they stayed with the Jax-Cle game. I went over to YouTube TV/Sunday Ticket and they had Buf-KC listed stand alone and as part of their 4 game multi-view. In both instances the feed was Jax-Cle. I was not able to watch the Bills game.
It ended up that I had to wait until after Jax-Cle was over. This meant I had to endure Jacksonville's statistically remote attempt at coming back from 2 scores down. I had to watch the Cleveland victory formation. Finally the game ended and after a LONG commercial break joined the Buf-KC with just 3 minutes left in the first quarter. I missed the Epenesa INT and the Cook TD. Interestingly the game was available on Sunday Ticket even though it was on local broadcast TV.
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On 11/21/2023 at 1:34 PM, Buffalo716 said:
If linval Joseph wasn't waiting on the couch for a contender to call him we'd still have a lot of problems
And I recall a bunch of people complaining that we drafted a backup to Matt Milano in the 3rd... And we traded for Douglas
We're getting by because we got replacements... Barely... And we're only still in this because we have Josh Allen
This team would be on a different level if we had Milano and DaQuan Jones... We did not replace them easily
We've been struggling to get timely stops
On 11/21/2023 at 1:39 PM, Buffalo716 said:Usually anytime this defense needs a stop it has not gotten one this season
Josh has left the field multiple times with the lead only for it to be erased
We have a defensive guru as a head coach of course he could keep it together for the most part... But when it matters it's struggled
If We can hold the eagles or the Chiefs to under 24 I would be pumped ...
We also traded for Douglas to shore up the secondary... So we've tried hard to patch all the holes
Including the most money invested in the defensive line in the NFL
You were right.
The defense, in spite of some nice in-season reinforcements is falling short and trending in the wrong direction.
The loss of DaQuan, Milano, and Tre White hurt quite a bit but in addition Von's recovery remains stuck in neutral and there's little doubt that the Hyde/Poyer excellence is a thing of the past.
The officiating in the game was just horrendous but the defense really let the team down again. On the bright side I believe that with another strong offseason combined with the development of players already on the roster that this defense can return to top 5 status.
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Even when you set aside Zack Moss and Devin Singletary (and please do), there has been real or fan-perceived improvement by the following players : Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa, Spencer Brown, James Cook, Terrell Bernard, Kahlil Shakir.
All 6 of these picks look better now than they did in August.
Around the League Week 16
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
You seem to have very little understanding of how these things work.
Agreed.
Agreed.
On the other hand, I don't think anyone would have batted an eye if the time ran off the clock and the half ended.
A Philly field goal was not a just outcome.