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fans (who often don't even know the rules) are far more biased than the refs (who actually know the rules) could ever dream of being. if the argument was simply, "refs make bad calls," then of course i agree with that. human error has always existed. do a Google search for "bad call" or "controversial call," you'll see no shortage of articles spanning sports beyond the NFL.

puts their thumb on the scale, how, exactly? they communicate orders to the refs to help the chiefs? they'd risk EVERYTHING on the truth coming out, opening themselves to criminal charges, class-action lawsuits, discovery, etc? the nfl is in such a weak position financially that they need to risk it all to help the kansas city chiefs!?

there’s like three dozen investigations into college hoops players potentially fixing games, on top of actual arrests made in the NBA for the same and similar. but yes, i’m sure the NFL is pulling off the greatest rigging operation in the world for seven plus seasons right in front of our eyes while the feds look the other way to protect their precious chiefs. the league would do just as well ratings wise, and likely better, if they rigged games for the cowboys, one of the four teams in NY or LA, a team in Chicago, or a team that isn’t in the middle of nowhere in the 4th smallest market. taylor swift is barely even shown on broadcasts this year, and as the Daily Mail recently reported, hasn’t been photographed entering a stadium this season. the NFL clearly desires parity, thus the salary cap, the worst teams picking first each year, results-based scheduling, expanded playoffs etc. given that, why would they try so hard to have a near 20-year dynasty (patriots) before then pivoting to a near decade dynasty (chiefs) without breaking stride? why would the other 31 owners stand by and let it happen? why would they allow for repeat super bowls (chiefs-eagles, chiefs-49ers) twice in the last six years? why would they let mahomes lose super bowls by scores of 40-22 (vs eagles) and 31-9 (vs bucs). it was the chiefs, not tampa bay, who got the worst of the whistle: kc had 11 penalties for 120 yards while tampa had just 4 for 39 yards, one of the biggest discrepancies in super bowl history. a bills-lions super bowl, or anything involving the cowboys, would do better ratings than chiefs vs opponent X.

Here's penalty data from every Chiefs-Bills game since 2020 (9 games total). All listed are penalties against the offending team. Penalties against: Chiefs: 43 penalties, 322 yards Bills: 48 penalties, 358 yards Unncessary roughness/late hit: Chiefs: 3 (42 yards) Bills: 6 (83 yards) Roughing the passer: Chiefs: 2 (27 yds) Bills: 2 (30 yds) Taunting/unsportsmanlike: Chiefs: 1 Bills: 1 Games with 50+ penalty yards: Chiefs: 4 Bills: 1 Games with >5 flags: Chiefs: 4 Bills: 3 Pre-snap penalties: False start: Chiefs 7, Bills 6 Offside: Chiefs 4, Bills 6 Delay of game: Chiefs 1, Bills 2 Illegal formation/illegal shift: Chiefs 0, Bills 3 Holding-type fouls: Offensive holding: Chiefs 8, Bills 7 Defensive holding: Chiefs 3, Bills 7 Illegal use of hands: Chiefs 3, Bills 1 Ineligible downfield/block above waist: Chiefs 1, Bills 3 Pass interference (offense & defense): Chiefs 9 (117 yds), Bills 6 (63 yds) Quarter by quarter trends: 1st quarter: Chiefs 35 yards, Bills 65 yards 2nd quarter: Chiefs 112 yards, Bills 117 yards 3rd quarter: Chiefs 98 yards, Bills 82 yards 4th quarter: Chiefs 77 yards, Bills 96 yards Declined/offsetting: Bills declined 9 penalties (5 offsetting) Chiefs declined 5 penalties (5 offsetting) Most penalized players: Bills: S. Neal (5), T. White (3), D. Dawkins (3), J. Allen (2) Chiefs: T. Kelce (3), J. Taylor (3), O. Brown (3), B. Breeland (3) Notes: Allen intentional grounding; and unsportsmanlike ... Neal predominantly defensive holding ... Dawkins holding and personal foul ... White DPI and unnecessary roughness ... Kelce offensive PI and false start ... Taylor holding, illegal use of hands ... Brown holding (also two declined) ... Breeland pass DPI, illegal contact, unnecessary roughness. Average yardage swing (per penalty): Chiefs: 8.5 yards Bills: 9.2 yards TOP 10 MOST HARMFUL PENALTIES (RANKED BY ESTIMATED GAME IMPACT) Rank Team Penalty Player Qtr Yds ΔEPA GCF PII Why It Was Devastating ----- ------------- -------------------------- ------------------- ---- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Buffalo Defensive Pass Interference Tre'Davious White 3rd 18 +1.9 1.5 +2.85 3rd-and-long DPI deep in own red zone → extended KC drive. 2 Buffalo Intentional Grounding Josh Allen 1st 18 –1.8 1.4 –2.52 Turned red-zone chance into 3rd-and-long; drive stalled. 3 Kansas City Defensive Pass Interference Charvarius Ward 2nd 24 +2.0 1.3 +2.60 Deep shot DPI flipped field into BUF territory. 4 Buffalo Roughing the Passer Ed Oliver 3rd 15 +1.5 1.5 +2.25 Erased 4th-down stop; KC went on to score. 5 Buffalo Unnecessary Roughness A.J. Epenesa 1st 15 +1.3 1.5 +1.95 Post-play shove gave KC new set; early momentum swing. 6 Kansas City Roughing the Passer Frank Clark 4th 15 +1.5 1.2 +1.80 Late-game drive extender; BUF capitalized with points. 7 Buffalo Face Mask Matt Milano 4th 15 +1.2 1.1 +1.32 Gave KC free first down in crunch time. 8 Kansas City Offensive Holding Jawaan Taylor 4th 10 –1.0 1.4 –1.40 Negated key 1st-down conversion on go-ahead drive. 9 Kansas City Offensive Offside Kadarius Toney 4th 5 –0.8 1.4 –1.12 Wiped out positive play in final minutes; stalled drive. 10 Buffalo Defensive Holding Siran Neal 2nd 5 +0.9 1.3 +1.17 3rd-down grab kept KC possession alive, led to points.

the chiefs have literally a turnstile at left tackle if moore is out. would be their third string guy. that would be a five-alarm fire.

McDermott guaranteed KC's inevitable demise earlier this year. A Bills-Chiefs game in Arrowhead seems unlikely at this point, but rest assured this clip will be played on the jumbotron pre kickoff if they do happen to meet.

Way too many people forget how bad the 2020 AFC championship game was. The Bills went: FG Punt TD (1 play, 3 yard drive after Chiefs muffed punt) Punt Punt FG FG Interception After the INT, the Chiefs drove down the field to score, making the game 38-15. The Bills finally scored another TD with 4:08 left in the 4th quarter. In other words, the Bills went 47 minutes between TDs, and the offense failed to put together a real TD drive until the game was already out of reach. Allen's performance in the 13 seconds game was a masterclass. The playoff games the last few years were fine but not exactly legendary.

Do you really think Andy/Chiefs are unloading the clip in regular season games? You’re getting their absolute best in the playoffs - max effort, best plays, best everything. Until this year, when the Chiefs started 0-2 and were desperate for wins, Mahomes rarely scrambles in regular season to the degree he does in the playoffs. They routinely mail it in against lesser teams in regular season and do just enough to get by against average to good teams. Don’t get me wrong, there is clear evidence that the Chiefs take it to another level when the opponent justifies it, even in the regular season. And I think the Chiefs badly want to beat the Bills this week, and will use up some of their best stuff in pursuit of that goal. But it’s still not the playoffs, where they’ve proven over and over, if they can block you, they will beat you.

Let me know when you stumble into data for "penalties that aren't called" and will be happy to include it in the analysis. One thing I've learned through the years, the fans watching at home are far more biased than the refs could ever be; and if given an exam on the NFL rules/officiating handbook, I'd guess 95% of fans would fail the test as most have zero clue about officiating mechanics, what to look for, what constitutes a penalty, etc. There are bad calls made in every sport, on every level. Umpires calling ball/strikes, with the best view in the house, while literally standing stationary, with the ball directly in front of them, miss 1 call per inning. If you seriously think the NFL would cheat for the Chiefs, you’re basically saying the league would risk: wire fraud, honest-services fraud, the sports bribery act, breach-of-contract suits from 31 other owners, class-action fraud claims from fans and bettors, and federal investigations from the FTC or DOJ, all to help one team win? And that the other 31 billion-dollar owners would just sit quietly and let it happen? Wouldn't the NFL, at least on occasion, want to rig something for the Cowboys, Jets, or Giants? At the very least, why not cheat just enough to help the Giants or Jets get above .500 and in the playoff mix for the first time in a decade? Perhaps some love for the Vegas-based Raiders? How about rewarding the Chargers for moving to LA and helping finance SoFi?

Some notes on officiating/Cheffers.... Carl Cheffers' crew has a league-high 20.7 flags thrown per game, and a league-high 17.3 accepted penalties per game (nfl average is 14). Cheffers already officiated a Chiefs game earlier this year in Brazil when they played the Chargers. KC had 10 penalties for 71 yards; LAC had 6 penalties for 49 yards. Chiefs fans believe he missed a holding call on this critical TD late (below), which adds to their belief that Cheffers hates the Chiefs due to his involvement in other past controversial games. I don't buy into the ref bias BS. They have no incentive to get calls wrong that could hurt their standing for playoff or Super Bowl assignments. I do however believe that a couple of crews have proven to be more (or less) flag happy than others. Bill Vinovich is one that makes the list. His crew has thrown the fewest flags over the sample and has had the least or second least amount of penalties seven straight years from 2016-2022, and typically is never at the top. Cheffers' crew certainly makes the list, but falls into the flag happy category. In data that goes back to 2009, Cheffers' crew has ranked (out of 17 crews) top 5 in flags thrown nine times, and has led the league four times. That being said, his crew threw the fewest flags in 2024, and the second fewest in 2023, one of only five times he's finished in the bottom half of flags thrown. It goes to show you that single-year samples can still be pretty noisy, as most ref crews have no defined pattern. Most years, there's a 3-4 flag per game difference between the most flag happy crew, and the least flag happy crew, and some years it's in the 2s. Cheffers penalty rank by year: 2025 - 1st (most flags thrown) 2024 - 17th (fewest flags thrown) 2023 - 16th 2022 - 1st 2021 - 1st 2020 - 3rd 2019 - 11th 2018 - 5th 2017 - 2nd 2016 - 11th 2015 - 2nd 2014 - 1st 2013 - 7th 2012 - 6th 2011 - 7th 2010 - 5th 2009 - 12th Chiefs vs Bills penalties (2025): This year, the Chiefs are 4th worst in the NFL in net penalties at -12 and are 6th worst in net penalty yards; the Bills are 5th worst (-11) in net penalties, and 7th worst in net penalty yards. In terms of subjective defensive penalties, the Chiefs rank 23rd (+16.5 EPA), while the Bills are the third-biggest beneficiary (+37 EPA) behind NYG and Dallas. The ranks are the same when measuring WPA - KC 23rd, Buffalo 3rd. Buffalo also has the edge over KC in QB penalties drawn, 11-9, despite KC playing one more game than the Bills so far. Prior years: 2024: Chiefs (5th best, +19 net penalties); Bills (6th best, +14 net penalties) 2023: Chiefs (7th worst, -12 net penalties); Bills (13th worst, -6 net penalties) 2022: Chiefs (3rd best, +21 net penalties); Bills (12th worst, -4 net penalties) 2021: Chiefs (11th best, +10 net penalties); Bills 13th worst, -11 net penalties) 2020: Chiefs (4th worst, -18 net penalties); Bills (5th worst, -11 net penalties) 2019: Chiefs (9th best, +12 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -26 net penalties) 2018: Chiefs (2nd worst, -24 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -17 net penalties) 2017: Chiefs (11th worst, -11 net penalties); Bills (17th worst, -1 net penalties) 2016: Chiefs (15th best, -2 net penalties); Bills (13th worst, -6 net penalties) 2015: Chiefs (13th best, +6 net penalties); Bills (3rd worst, -30 net penalties) 2014: Chiefs (6th best, +19 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -20 net penalties) 2013: Chiefs (11th best, +13 net penalties); Bills (16th best, -2 net penalties) Chiefs in Andy/Mahomes era (2018-2025): -4 net penalties Chiefs Andy/Alex Smith era (2013-2017): +25 net penalties Bills in McDermott era (2017-2025): -72 net penalties Bills in Marrone/Ryan eras (2013-2016): -58 net penalties QBs/Roughing the Passer (2018-2025): Allen 0.932 per 100 attempts (5th highest of 74 QBs) Mahomes 0.633 per 100 attempts (29th)

chiefs are signing pennel. im sure the bengals released him at his request.

i could not disagree more with this. there's pretty clear evidence that andy saves "the good plays" for bigger matchups. last year, in weeks leading up to bills game, the chiefs looked borderline disinterested, play calling was not inventive, and the offense looked sluggish. against the bills, the chiefs came out with clear intent to target worthy a lot (pretty much the first time all year) and dialed up some gems for him in the first half. one first-half scoring drive was almost entirely worthy (through the air and on the ground.) in the end, kc's offense stalled out (largely due to terrible OL play) but they gave max effort and simply got beat. these teams know each other so well at this point, elite chess match both ways.

No Pacheco is a real problem for the Chiefs. Kareem has been short yardage only with very limited explosiveness. Kareem's snap share has been about 30% the last month plus. Brashard Smith, the rookie, is not trusted as a pass protector yet.

in fairness, no rice and no worthy, sort of a different offense without both.