harryS
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Posts posted by harryS
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Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board. There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted. At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5. Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news.
On 10/30/2023 at 6:59 AM, newcam2012 said:I don't find the references of last year being pertinent now. The Bills were the super bowl favorites and the darlings on many in the NFL. They were often over bet and the betting lines were often slightly inaccurate. This year isn't the case especially with the injuries.
Given that we are 0-4 against the spread since the injuries, I'd say that we are again overvalued due to the injuries.
On 10/30/2023 at 9:36 AM, BuffaloBaumer said:I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1
You should just bet the Bengals moneyline (Bengals to win outright, no spread) then. It's not usually a recommended bet when you can get -2.5 because you're eating much more juice but given your fears, that's the way to go.
On 10/30/2023 at 1:59 PM, Big Turk said:You would win if the line is Bengals -1.5, Bills would have to lose by 2 to lose that bet.
He's talking about betting on Cincy, not Buffalo. He doesn't want to bet $500 on Cincy spread and then have the Bills lose by 1 or 2. That's a double whammy.
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2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:
The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5.
I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5.
You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s). 2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that.
As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it. I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line. However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game. In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs).
The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side). To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news. Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.
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historically teams that play overtime on Sunday (like Washington did) and then have to play Thursday perform horribly
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On 9/30/2023 at 10:21 PM, Neo said:
If you were a “sharp”’ wouldn’t it pay to go the books where the “sharps” were not?
It's about the betting limits. The books that cater to sharps will allow them to put down 10K on an NFL side.
At square books, they can get limited to $500 a bet and if they win too much, the limits might even go down more.
So, yes, most sharps will have a Bovada account so they can grab a good number for $500 but the majority of their action will be elsewhere.
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12 hours ago, Fallser said:
***** bruv, games aren’t even over yet, Vegas needs another day to digest. I’d bet we’re -7.5 by Tuesday.
Nah, won't happen. Just like the Dolphins getting bet to pick'em against the Bills didn't happen. Generally speaking there aren't these wild swings in the line like many think.
You have to give Jax credit for home field in this one, imo. They're already in England, they already played a game there this week (won comfortably), and they've been there more than any other NFL team the past few years. The fact that we have to travel across the Atlantic after an emotional blowout win against our hated division rivals, and Jax is just sitting there chilling, waiting for us.... imo, I give Jax the full 1.5 points for home field.
And considering CRIS/Bookmaker and BetOnline are at 5.5 and Circa is at 5, then this game is considered Bills -7/-6.5 on a neutral field in America. That's a very healthy line already and shouldn't go up much more more, if any. It might even come down if some syndicate decides they're going to weigh HFA even higher than I did.
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White really hasn't been the same since his previous season-ending injury. We're not losing Pro Bowler White; we're losing the opportunity for White, in his second season back from that injury, to eventually turn into Pro Bowler White again later on in the season. But that was no guarantee. Sucks for him and us though. Wish we could've played seen how it would've played out.
Hopefully some of the young corners make a leap.
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I can vouch for there being a preference for the Bills among sharps. That's because the sharpest books (i.e. the books whose clientele are more sharp-heavy) are at 3 or juicier 2.5s than the rest of the books. Sharp books include, among others, Circa, Pinnacle, and CRIS/Bookmaker.
It's not a huge preference but the preference is obviously there. Oh, btw, there were folks on here predicting that we would get a chance to bet the Bills at pick'em / even because of public money. Never materialized, did it? Because that's just not how things work.
Of course all of this is meaningless. Maybe Miami wins by 30. Maybe Buffalo does. The line's the line but the players still have to suit up and get it done.
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On 9/24/2023 at 8:28 PM, Dr.Sack said:
Bills D will hold Miami under 17. I don’t see Miami scoring 70, 60, 50, 40, 30 or 20.
a much lesser version of this dolphins team scored 21, 29, and 31 against the Bills last season. (the playoff game output was aided by Bills turnovers to be fair).
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7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:
The Bills just destroyed the Commanders in a game in which we had something like NINE sacks while our starting RB nearly broke 100 yards and we choose now to complain about the offensive line? Okie Dokie?
The goal isn't to beat Washington.
Plus, criticism is sometimes best received after victory. A win doesn't mean you're perfect.
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5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:
A team is 3-0, won their last game by 50 freakin points and scored 70, are underdogs??
Only in the NFL.
This isn't surprising. Until Tua proves it over a full season, Josh is considered the better QB. As of right now, 32 out of 32 GMs would pick Josh over Tua.
So we have the better QB playing at home complemented by a defense that's been playing well. It would be insane for Buffalo not to be favorites.
A decent amount of sportsbooks have already flipped this back to Buf -3 flat. (As mentioned before, Circa being at 3 was a leading indicator). So much for this line going to pick'em.
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16 hours ago, stlbills13 said:
3 is a good line. I think the sharps will let the public get it down to -1 or -2 and then hammer the Bills back up to -3 or even-3.5 by kickoff.
The Dolphins are legit. And their speed worries me. But keep them in front of you and get it done defensively in the red zone. Their defense has some big names but they don't scare me
I really don't think there will be such fluctuations for the marquee game of the week (especially not the 3.5), unless either team has an awful injury report.
I can see it staying -2.5 (juiced to Buf) or 3 (juiced to MIa) all week like it currently is now. IMO 2.5 is a good number. Hard to give that Miami offense the full 3 unless it's juiced and hard not to have Buffalo as a team rated at least even with MIami but more likely slightly ahead given the small sample of this season so far. (Miami might turn out to be the better team, but we don't know that yet based on 3 games). Thus 2.5 would be my number; Bills home field is probably worth 2 and then a half point to give us credit for being slightly better.
BTW, for those thinking this will get down to even, Circa is the sharpest book around and they currently have it at 3. Circa and Pinnacle tend to be leading indicators for the market. Meaning the line is currently more likely to go to 3 than to go down.
And again, none of this matters as to the outcome of the game. Maybe Miami wins by 40. Maybe the Bills do. It's strictly about reading the market like nerds.
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42 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
So, we're scoring 73!
In all seriousness, after what Miami just did Im betting a ton of money comes in on them. I'll bet the line is close to even by kickoff.
37 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:The line will move close to even by next Sunday
The Dolphin hype train will be at an all time high, which I love for us
Take the Bills all day
Unless we have a horrible injury report, I'd be shocked if that were the case. The lowest this line can go is Bills -2.5 heavily juiced.
It's unheard of for a well-known (several seasons with same HC and QB), highly-regarded team like the Bills to go from -3 to even without injury being involved.
All of this is irrelevant to who will win or lose. Just saying, the line movement you predict won't happen without injuries. (I'm a degenerate gambler and should know ;-)
Man, I wish this game at Buffalo were in Nov/Dec.
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what percentage of zone has Howell seen the first two week? a QB can look good against one type of D and horrible against the other
are the zone vs man stats freely available anywhere? thanks.
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7 hours ago, Chugga said:
I’ve said it 50 times and I’ll say it 50 more. 13 seconds was our super bowl. That was our game. That was our year. With every passing day that we get farther away from 13 seconds the more it haunts me. We’ve done nothing to better ourselves from that game.
McDermott should've been fired immediately after 13 seconds. I said right after the game that McD was destined to be fired by the Bills; the only question was whether the Pegulas would waste 5-8 years before firing him, or whether they would move on right away and hopefully find an innovative, ballsy, non-choking coach. They chose to waste years. Sigh.
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Does it really matter if McD should actually be 15th or whatever instead of 22nd? It's stupid to be so precise in these coach rankings anyway, and it's especially stupid for Bills fans to get all up in arms about the rankings one way or another.
No, what matters is that McD will be fired within a few seasons after having wasted much of Josh Allen's prime.
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can we block?
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too simple, he was both BPA and fulfills a need
best of both worlds
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26 minutes ago, KzooMike said:
Josh didn’t lose this game and for years he has made plays no player in FB can make.
Favre was the same way and he ended up winning a title, but for how great he was, generating multiple MVP’s, widely considered one of the best of all time…..He just wasn’t consistent enough to be a late season closer. He made deep playoff runs each year, but each year he would typically be the team who lost in the Divisional or Championship round only making one SB.
Josh is similar to Favre. He is adored for his guts and heart and recognized for his freakish ability to do things nobody else can. With this, he’s been the bridesmaid for several years now. At this point I don’t know how anybody could make Buffalo the favorites. They will challenge each year, but at the end of the day, better or worse, we ride Allen’s back on offense and that just doesn’t work against the better teams for multiple games in a row. It’s also not always on Josh where that breakdown occurs. Our version of the Tampa 2 doesn’t seem to hold past the Wild Card.
I wish I knew the fix. I don’t think one exists. Like Favre, I think we will win a Super Bowl one day. With that, we will never be consistent. We will constantly be in the deep playoffs but we won’t break into being in the SB with consistency. What allows us to get to that position is also the thing that prevents us form consistently getting deeper. We will remain a lethal team but eventually our style will hinder our ability to get far or deep in the playoffs with consistency.
That would be an awesome 15 years, quite frankly. I'd be quite happy to root for that. We're the Buffalo Bills - why would we scoff at a Favre-like 15 year run that includes a Super Bowl win? We'd have killed for that during the 20-year drought.
But really, this season was only partially about Josh's shortcomings. We have a bad OL, bad WR depth, a D that can't rush the passer / defend the pass, a bad OC, a dumb head coach, and a GM that wastes treasure on the D without improving it.
I'm not saying Josh needs all those positions to be great, but he can't have them all failing him at the same time. The fact that he's a top-3 QB (albeit #3) is how we managed to go 13-3
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7 minutes ago, Mantis said:
That is exactly why this is worse. Last year was heartbreaking, but we had caught up to KC as arguably the best team in the NFL (but for that 13 seconds). There was so much reason for optimism.
This year we learn that we are a distant 3rd best in the AFC. Jacksonville is for real, chargers are getting better, Pittsburgh won’t be down for long (they went 9-8 with a rookie QB), and Miami and Jets were tough opponents for us. What’s there to be optimistic about?
At the end of last year, I was thinking it’s just a matter of time (maybe this year) where we win a superbowl. At the end of this year, I think a Super Bowl win May never happen…because like you said…we’re paper tigers.
just a difference in philosophy. to me, it hurts worse when you play great, have a team that could legitimately win it all, and then blow it with stupidity at the end.
but when you just have all the weaknesses we ended up having this year, it only hurts if you were fooling yourself otherwise.
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the move was to outbid the Rams for Von Miller last year.
but yes, we need to improve at WR, OL, and stop investing so much in the D for minimal gains
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16 minutes ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:
I've been a Bills fan since the OJ years, growing up in the Town of Tonawanda. The Bills have been and will always, be my team. I moved to Houston 22 years ago, but still passionately root for my team. I have suffered during the dark years, post the Music City BS. I hated the Rex Ryan hire, which wasted more precious years away. Josh was my pick for the draft that year; no one looked better to represent the Bills than Josh. He's proven to be exactly what we need. I've been so happy watching my team the past few years.
However, this game today just took all the wind out of my sails. I just don't know how much more miserable such an important, home playoff game could have been. This one hurts more than the Kansas City loss last year. It also tops the Texans defeat in overtime. The key difference being that in both those games, we were competitive and could easily have won. This game was over in the 1st quarter. It's like they didn't plan for the Bengals at all.
It will be a long time before I can even read anything about the Bills again. It just hurts.....
you were deluding yourself then.
the bills weaknesses were on display for most of the season. poor o-line, lack of quality receiving depth, and can't defend the pass after Von went down.
last year hurt. this loss was basically anticipated. at the very least, we're not a serious playoff contender with all of those weaknesses mentioned.
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i expected the NFL to give us an L, so i'm pretty happy with this outcome. we probably got better than we deserved, but even you don't agree with that statement, i don't see how you can B word too much
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i wouldn't needlessly stress over this. it's already baked in the cake that he's not going to have a Brady-esque long career. as long as Josh delivers one Super Bowl title over the next decade or so, we're good.
we can help him out by investing assets in the OL and WR
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7 hours ago, hemma said:
I think we were missing White, Poyer, Milano and Rousseau for 1/2, so they were definitely up against a much weaker D.
I think we step on their throats and cover that spread. Rare for me as I am usually an arm flapper.
I tend to agree. To reiterate, the line closed at 10.5 at the Jets. Flipping homefield, it should take the line to 14. Instead the line is 9, so the oddsmakers have already adjusted 5 points. They really can't make this much shorter.
I'm taking 9, and I would love to tease an 8 or 8.5 down as well if they pop on the screen.
Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Even the minor movement has been eliminated as we're back to mostly 2s and 1.5s across the board. As always, lines don't move big the way many fans think they do.