harryS
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Posts posted by harryS
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On 2/12/2024 at 10:47 PM, Awwufelloff said:
The Bills will never win a Super Bowl while McDermott is coach.
I will piggyback off your post for my own unpopular opinion.
Sean McDermott is 49 years old, keeps himself in good shape, and should be able to live another 40-45 years or so. Let's give him a full 50 years of remaining life to make it a round number.
The Bills winning the Super Bowl will increase the life expectancy of millions of Bills fans by at least one year. That's a conservative estimate. Most people would live an extra 3-5 years, imo.
Millions of (collective) years > 50 years.
Therefore, Bills fans should mob up and murder Sean McDermott in the street.
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Stroud scored 3 points today. I think some folks got drunk on recency bias.
1-0 on my bets so far. I hope to finish 2-1. (Well, I hope the Bills win by 1 or 2 but if that's not possible I'd rather lose my bet and have them win).
9 hours ago, harryS said:The Ravens have been obsessed with their 2019 failure when they were the #1 seed and lost their first playoff game in this round. That obsession will either drive them to (A) put together one of their best performances in this game or (B) choke. I tend to think it'll be (A).
Ravens -9.5 is my third favorite bet of this week following TB +6 (previously 6.5) and KC +2.5.
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The Ravens have been obsessed with their 2019 failure when they were the #1 seed and lost their first playoff game in this round. That obsession will either drive them to (A) put together one of their best performances in this game or (B) choke. I tend to think it'll be (A).
Ravens -9.5 is my third favorite bet of this week following TB +6 (previously 6.5) and KC +2.5.
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3 hours ago, Process said:
Healthiest team in the NFL going into Week 18. Only missing Milano. Two weeks later and we fielding a practice squad defense. Unreal.
this is the cost of losing to the Jets, Patriots, and Broncos. if we take care of business, maybe we could've rested guys Week 18. additionally, if we don't choke away the game at Philadelphia, maybe we're not even playing in the wild card round. there's usually a price to pay for not taking care of business.
but we're here now and we're at home. hopefully we can man up and next-man-up our way to a W.
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14 minutes ago, nucci said:
we've played the Chiefs enough to know them....Unless we have have injuries tomorrow I don't think that day will make too much of a difference.
That's true. I should've added I just don't want the Chiefs to have 2 extra days of rest. They also basically had a bye Week 18.
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Sorry if already covered, but with the postponement, the Bills went from a 9-pt favorite to a 10-pt favorite, and the total went from 33 to 37.5 (crossing the key number of 37). It's probably true that the Bills have a better chance of beating the Steelers playing it Monday but given that we were big favorites either way, I'd have liked that extra day of rest to prep the Chiefs.
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I mean, the Bills ripped Miami's hearts out last week. KC just put a dead-man-walking out of its misery, is all.
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if we get the 2 seed, i'd feel our chances are as good as a typical 2 seed. maybe better because we have done well against the ravens in past seasons but the sample is small.
if we get a wildcard, i'd also feel our chances are as good as a typical wildcard, meaning not so good. even during this turnaround, our road performances don't inspire confidence that we could win 3 road games in a row. KC could easily have been a loss, we choked away the Philly game (and look at their recent results), and we almost lost to the pathetic chargers.
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10 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
I think the line would be more pits way if they truly knew. Baltimore does have really seasoned backups though and Huntley is much better than mason rudolph straight up so who knows
feels like a ‘could go 3 points either direction when we have more info’ line to me…if the ravens starters play a half I think it’s a pick em
i mean, Pitt is currently -4, so that's roughly an 11 point swing in the line if it were a normal week. i think the oddsmakers very much expect the Ravens to do a lot of resting of starters. even if they play a series or two.
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13 minutes ago, mannc said:
Will be interesting to see how the line moves on Sunday, depending on the early game results…
I think both teams will be very motivated to win regardless of previous results
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24 minutes ago, dma0034 said:
Bills played a close wild card game against a banged up Dolphins team last year that they could of lost. I don't want them to look at those injuries and think it's in the bag.
plus, nothing is official yet. okay i agree chubb is probably out but every other player mentioned could play. there's no reason to believe at this point that miami will be any more banged up than the average nfl team at this stage of the season. or that they'll be more banged up than the bills.
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Expect a tough game. This would be the Bills' best win of the season (which is different from most dominant / impressive). We've only beaten one good team on the road this season, KC, and the Chiefs are .500 at home this season (beating the Bengals today got them to .500). Miami, on the other hand, is 7-1 at home this season.
Add in the stakes -- it could be 2 seed or out of the playoffs -- and that we're playing to win the division against a hated division rival, this would be our best win.
We've come a long way but this is everything here.
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2 hours ago, Unforgiven said:
Will they even get lucky again and beat NE?
Not a playoff team, even if they are.
2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:Can't agree with this more. The Bills last year made the playoffs and almost lost to Skylar Thompson before getting blown out by a real playoff team (Bengals). You guys really think this team deserves to be in the playoffs and go through that again?
The Bills just almost lost to EASTON STICK. The football player, not the hockey equipment. Let that sink in and then reassess if you think this team should be in the playoffs.
2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:Oh you can make the playoffs, but that doesn't make you worthy of being a playoff team. Every year there's 1 or 2 teams that barely make it and then get blown out by the real teams. Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew (it autocorrected his name to Grander he's so unpopular) have a better chance of making the playoffs than Josh Allen. They wouldn't fold to the Chargers backups
First of all, every single playoff team will have a bad performance on the resume akin to this win.
Secondly, the pros who do this for a living (oddsmakers and pro bettors) have consistently rated the Bills as a top 8 team in the league, i.e. playoff worthy.
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okay, just wanted to quickly point out something
(1) apparently peacock has a wild card game this year. i didn't even realize that until reading this thread.
(2) lots of people are recommending to buy peacock for the Bills game and then cancel right afterwards.
if you buy peacock today, your month subscription would cover the wild-card game (which very well may involve the Bills). wild card weekend is Jan 13-15.
i'd illegally stream both, but if you're going to buy peacock, then NO, don't cancel it right after Saturday.
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18 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:
As upset as you are, if anyone is to blame it's us. We complained about cable prices, so everyone went to streaming. Now thats where we are headed. Cable TV will be a thing of the past in the next 10 years
not sure i agree that complaining about bad only to receive worse makes it our fault. in a just world, it would've led to better.
anyway, i agree with everyone saying to use an illegal stream so the streak doesn't break.
23 minutes ago, dorquemada said:I'd absolutely not recommend the myriad of ways that you can watch this without peacock getting any money, that would make you no better than them
good post. re: this final point, I would say it's okay to make a one-time exception in response to the extreme boning in the butt described by OP. plus, when you stream illegally, it's not like they cut out the commercials.
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26 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
Just get us in!!!!
A home game would be sweet but not necessary.
Would that McD had benched Dorsey earlier in the season😕Why? Since the switch to Brady, we lost to the Eagles on the road and very easily could've lost to the Chiefs on the road. We blew out the Cowboys and Jets at home. I think getting a home game would be great.
Also, historically, is there any easy way to look up all Super Bowl champions that had to play 3 conference playoff games? If we compare:
(1) Those that had to play all 3 conference games on the road to
(2) Those that started their playoff run at home
#2 will be multiple times more numerous than #1. Has there ever even been a Super Bowl champ that won three conference road games? I think maybe one of the Eli Manning teams did it?
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Unless it brings you some level of enjoyment, I wouldn't live and die on the games from other playoff contenders.
Keep it simple. The Bills win out, or they don't deserve to make the playoffs. I know it's a difficult task to win out, but it was the Bills who put themselves in that position by blowing so many games they should've won this season. Now it's time to do something special to dig ourselves out of the hole, or well, it's onto the draft and free agency.
A lot of Bills games are already torture to watch. I don't see the point in adding to the torture by living and dying on a Bengals-Vikings game on a Saturday.
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Making the playoffs isn't the goal anyway, and hopefully people remember that! We want to win a Super Bowl. Making the playoffs only to choke away a win @Ravens or @Chiefs is a failure.
The sneaky bastard McDermott has moved the goalposts. Very few expect us to make the playoffs anymore, so now making the playoffs with Josh Allen is a success lol and will save his job.
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I can believe they'll get in. Only for the season to end with the Bills choking away a win @Ravens or @Chiefs in the playoffs. McDermott gonna McDermott.
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While it's mathematically possible to lose to both the Eagles and Chiefs and still make the playoffs, in reality we need to cash in on the advantageous schedule situation we're in to go at least 1-1 and hopefully 2-0. (Against KC, the advantage is obviously 2 weeks of prep/rest to their 1 week). We're not going to win out if we blow these two opportunities here.
Also, from a "deserve it" standpoint, we need to man up and get a good road win. The Browns won at the Ravens. The Texans won at the Bengals (with Burrow). Our only road win is Washington so far.
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Of course not. You're basically saying he's never going to have a season in the future where we say, "This is the best he's ever played."
Josh has never even played under a great offensive mind yet. Hopefully Brady proves to be one.
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On 11/21/2023 at 7:17 PM, nucci said:
How are we catching them at a perfect time? They're 9-1, won 4 straight coming off big road win in KC. This won't be a "letdown" or "trap" game for Eagles
As others have explained, they are on a short week after playing on MNF in an emotional and hard-fought Super Bowl revenge game while the Bills coasted to a blowout win. Eagles have the 49ers on deck next week while the Bills have a bye, so we will focus solely on Philly and let it all hang loose this week.
Savvy bettors have recognized this as a great "spot"/situation for the Bills and it's the sole reason the point spread is 3 instead of 3.5 or 4.
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21 hours ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:
And they still beat the Bills. Go figure. That is the true travesty of the season. The other losses I could handle, but that one. pukeworthy.
That was the only time Belichick was coaching for real, as he was auditioning for Pegula. The rest of the time, he's been trying to get Kraft to fire him, i.e. release him from his contract with pay. (As an aside, getting fired in pro sports is awesome). It's obvious that Belichick is eyeing Josh as his next Brady, like Palpatine lusting after a young undisciplined Annakin. Together, they could build an empire and deliver Buffalo multiple Super Bowl trophies. Unfortunately, not sure Pegula is paying attention or if Kraft is falling for it.
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56 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
Sharp money is on the over.
Absolutely right.
4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy
This one is more speculative, but why not, let's speculate. Among public sharps (those that share their picks on podcasts, twitter, etc, after they have already bet), there has been more of a sharp preference for Cincy although it is by no means unanimous as some sharps disagree and back Buffalo. It's not like the over, which is heavily backed by the sharps. I do think the public sharps are representative of the overall sharp pool, so why hasn't this line moved when both the public and the sharps favor the Bengals.
Ah, here's the rub. There's a subset of the sharp pool called "syndicates." These are rich men, many with a background in math and finance -- some come from Wall Street -- and they pool their money together kind of like a hedge fund and have decided they want to conquer NFL betting using mathematical models. These guys wait to bet later in the week when the sportsbooks have fully removed the limits, so the syndicate can drop $100,000 on the Bills if they want to.
Why would the syndicates prefer Buffalo? Remember, these guys are math nerds. Buffalo's season-long stats are way better than Cincy's. They probably have Buffalo favored by 1 in this game or something.
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Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
This is not a WR. With his lack of speed, the Bills are going to convert Coleman into a zone corner, perhaps a good one for McDermott's defense.
It's way past time to admit that McDermott and Beane are lovers, and McDermott uses his starfish to mesmerize and control Beane.