[Bills Draft Capital Analysis]

Per the value chart, I can't wait for Buffalo to trade up with the Jets for the 3rd pick for only our 1st and 2nd round picks...

 

Jets: 514

 

Bills : 387+149= 536

 

Then we can get our second Josh Allen!!!!

[Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick]

5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this.  It is eleven pages long.

 

I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually  writing it.  I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts.

 

I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here.  I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable.  

 

At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it.  I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to burry it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago.

 

Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle.  They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential. 

 

I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st.  If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there.

 

Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9.

 

Will I be upset if we draft Oliver?  Nope.  The kid looks great.  The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise.  It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen.  I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are.  I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

 

 

 

Hell, I really liked the offense Philly was running because they have 2 TE's that are very serviceable blockers/catchers.

 

That way you can basically have 7 blockers out there, 2 WR, 1 RB (normally). But with that set, you also have 4 pass catchers and a RB.  With this set, you force LB's onto the field because if you they don't match the size of the TE's out there, the offense will just run over the defense.  BUT with good TE's, that also makes a great mismatch of the TE's on LB's.

 

I'm not saying we should draft 2 TE's here.  Only showing that have 2 good catching TE's could create a lot of problems on the defensive side of the ball and also help in the running game.

[Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick]

10 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I like Hockenson a lot but nothing at him screams a generational talent. I think he could develop maybe into a tightend like Whitten but I see more heath miller/Todd heap.

While I’d like a player of that caliber on this roster, I would not pass on him

for a guy like Ed Oliver. Especially when we can still get a tight end like Irv Smith, Josh Oliver, Jace Stenberger or Foster Meanru in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Now Noah Fant that’s different 

 

I think this is the key for Hock, if the Bills evaluate him to be a 'Gronk' level TE, then I think you take him at 9 (or trade back a couple of picks, and hope he falls a couple more spots and pick up a 2nd round pick (my favorite thing to do)).  IF not Gronk level, don't take him at 9 or even 10-15, not worth it.  Then wait till 2nd or 3rd round to get a serviceable TE.

[Did we land a top 5 GM in Beane?]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

TBD

He created the salary cap dead money issue. He threw away 2018 season and dismantled first playoff team in 17 years

He is partially complicit in the QB situation to start 2018.

His first FA class was terrible

The best player on the team was chosen by McD/Whaley

I love Allen and Beane's fate is sealed with him 

 

Interesting take.

 

I don't think Beane, in his grand plan, was planning on trying to make the playoffs that year.  Of course, he'll take it, but he knew the roster needed to be blown up.

 

If you are going to purge players/salary, he got a lot of value out of some of them so we could even have a shot at Josh.

Also, why stretch the dead money over years instead of just taking a 1 year hit and get rid of all the dead money in one shot.

 

We have made it thru, now let's see how he does.

[Joe B: 2019 NFL Mock Draft No. 2]

The NFL is all about mismatches.

 

Hock at TE should be a mismatch vs LBs in coverage and *supposedly* excels in blocking which we also need.

 

Instead of Tillery, I'd rather have Marquise Brown or other WR the Bills covet. (Brown has speed to burn and our QB can throw a long ways...)

 

Just think of the speed and mismatches the Bills could put all over the field and don't forget about Beasley as the comfort blanket on third down.

 

Take the OT with the third pick.  We can find another DT farther down in the draft that is serviceable.

[Which RB are we spending an early round pick on?]

Buffalo does need a RB, but not necessarily in the early rounds.

 

Alex Barnes, Kansas State (disclaimer I am a KSU homer).

 

Dude is a powerful running back that can catch out of the backfield.

 

Can probably get him in the 5-7 rounds.

[Tackle at #9, Dawkins to LG]

9 hours ago, Estelle Getty said:

Nsekhe, Dawkins, Morse, Long, #9 draft pick.  That is the best way we could turn our biggest weakness from last year into a strength.  I get we could use help on the Dline.  What needs more overall help our offense with a second year QB or a #2 ranked defense?

 

Then I would like to see DE in the second and TE in the 3rd.  I don’t see much of a need ar WR after the contracts we just gave out. 

 

Trade back w/ Wash to 14 (get 2nd round pick as compensation), take Hockenson. (Best TE that blocks and catches well)

Take Risner and best WR / DT in 2nd

Take 'other' WR/DT in 3rd

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Way later in draft take Alex Barnes RB. (Kids a stud).

[What am I missing about Jared Cook?]

Howdy! Been lurking for a while and finally decided to chime in.

 

Like many others on here, at 9, that feels too much for Hock. I’d like to trade back to around 14 and get him there. Then in the 2nd you can get a OT and WR.

 

Of course, if you get a TE at 9 or 14, you have to consider him at close to a gronk level of TE.

 

Then we could run a 2 TE offense with basically 7 blockers on running downs for shady to run... Then on passing downs you have TE/LB mismatches to take advantage of.