glazeduck
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Posts posted by glazeduck
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1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Great, so much for smoke screens, now we basically have no shot at him. He'll go 7 or 8....
You are looking at (and talking about) the smokescreen.
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5 minutes ago, ChanticleerBillsFan said:
I just get the feeling if Oliver makes it to 5-6 we are gonna move up.
Good lord that'd be a disaster! ?
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Really surprised everyone is taking the bait here.
At best this is Miller grasping at straws, at worst its false info leaking during "lying season". If anything, I think it's damning evidence against the likelihood of Oliver to the Bills...
To me, more interesting would be who are the players who haven't been linked to Buffalo by "sources"? Off the top of my head... Taylor, Sweat, Q. Williams, either LB...
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I'd be shocked if TB takes him (think there's a much higher likelihood of them trading out of that spot if he falls there) -- he's not a NT, but could ostensibly be tried at 5T?
The Jets are the Jets, there's absolutely no way to know what they're thinking, but if they DID take Q, I'd be interested to see what their plans for him were, or if Leonard might be available? I'd gladly take him as our 3T (not that I think they'd trade with us, but it'd be intriguing...)
Similar deal with SF -- if they take Q, one of their young DL may become available. Doubt it'd be Buckner, but Armstead or Solomon Thomas might be nice, young affordable pickups in that event.I think there's a real chance he falls to 5 -- especially when you take into consideration the fact that it's entirely possible one or more teams trade up for a QB...
1 minute ago, section122 said:Yeah I think 6 is Q's floor. Giants have a need there and Gettleman has shown he will grab his highest ranked player regardless of position (Saquon).
Bosa should go to the 49ers but that might be more what I want to happen rather than what will happen. I see him as more of a sure thing than the other Josh Allen.
Whether its the GMen or somebody else, he's way too good to fall too much farther than that. I think we'd need to trade with TB to secure him if he got that far...
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47 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:
so he's a physical freak. however scouting reports that exclaim his 40 time, also point out it's straight line speed. i've not heard anyone gush over his route tree or route running. he wasn't even the best receiver on his team.
i'm not putting him down, but at no.9 you need a star at a position of need. the hole kyle left leaves us wide open to have our defense be the side of the ball to drag us down record wise. there's no way in hell that drafting dk is gonna cover that up.
i would rather they get a couple of difference makers on the dline. if we ignore that hole on d, we could end up going 8-8 with a top ten offense. omg, flashback!...25 years worth!
i will absolutely trust their decisions, but there's just no argument that dk could be bpa at no. 9....none
Of course there's an argument that he could be BPA at 9. He's a generational athlete at a position of need whose comps are some of the best WRs of the past few decades (if not ever) -- that is the argument.
While none of your points above are really wrong, they're also not necessarily the point, and I think that's the biggest thing that Metcalf deniers are missing. Not every WR needs to be a blur when it comes to short area quickness. Not every WR is going to win with precise routes. A guy built like Mecole Hardman is going to have a natural advantage in the agility game, just like a motorcycle is going to be more agile than a mack truck -- that doesn't mean that the motorcycle can't be more effective in certain things. DK Metcalf wasn't ever going to be a jitterbug, but if you watch his film, look at his makeup (height/weight/bulk/strength/wingspan) and how he uses those to his advantage, he doesn't need to. As others have posted, we wouldn't be asking him to run the same routes as, say, Cole Beasley, and that's okay.
To your point about not being the best player on his team, that's also not really the point -- firstly, he was every bit as good as Brown when he was on the field, secondly he fits the type of player we need far better than Brown.
Everyone has their own opinions on the draft and its prospects, that's what makes it so much fun, but to say that DK Metcalf doesn't have star potential or that "there's just no argument that dk could be bpa at no. 9....none" is peak silliness. It may end being Oliver (size), Sweat (still developing as a pass-rusher), Taylor (can he transition to LT?), Hock (value of drafting TE at 9?), Burns (size), or (god help us...) Gary (unproven at his projected position) but each of these guys have as many question marks as DK Metcalf.
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QB:
- Ryan Finley -- great size, great arm, analytics bear out... If there's a later-round QB who goes on to become a success, it'll be Finley.
RB:
- David Montgomery -- only sort of a sleeper, but I think he's got Leveon Bell upside, probably goes in the 3rd or 4th rd
- Rodney Anderson -- again, only a pseudo-sleeper, probably a day-2 guy... all depends on health, but uber talented
- Ryquell Armstead -- small school kid with prototype size and athleticism... shows a lot of good traits on the field too.
- Elijah Holyfield -- phenomenal feet, patience, power, balance and vision.
- James Williams -- won't be a feature back, but will be a high-end satellite back
WR:
- Deebo Samuel -- another pseudo sleeper, but my bet to be the most "underdrafted" wr of this group.
- Mecole Hardman -- Looooooooove this kid, just wish we had a need for a dynamic slot guy.
- Terry McLaurin -- Mecole Hardman Jr.
- Stanley Morgan Jr. -- suuuuuper high floor, unfortunately (in my opinion) very limited ceiling -- will be a solid #2 guy for a long time in the league... just not what I think Buffalo needs
- Antoine Wesley -- basically everything you're getting in a guy like Butler or Boykin, a couple rounds later. Won't become Randy Moss, but I could see him becoming Vincent Jackson...
TE:
- Josh Oliver -- agree with everything that's been said about this kid. LOVE his game.
- Caleb Wilson -- kid was one of the top TE prospects going into the year and disappeared... It's been a rough few years for UCLA and he looks way more athletic and dynamic on tape than his combine numbers suggest. Could be a late round or undrafted steal for someone.
OL:
- Nate Davis -- big, versatile, mean, more athletic than his size suggests
- Tytus Howard -- probably will be drafted too high to be considered a true sleeper, but very good athlete with great measurables... definitely an intriguing project at the right price
- Chuma Edoga -- tape ain't great, neither is the culture at USC, but was a highly ranked HS recruit, has great length and solid athleticism for the position... A lot of kids come from SC undeveloped and turn into good ballplayers, he could be one of them.
DL:
- Justin Hollins -- complete project, and probably a rough fit for 43 DE, but phenomenal length and athleticism, great motor, smart kid and a relentless competitor... I'm betting on him outperforming his draft position in the right system
- Joe Jackson -- just don't get why people are so low on him. Has the potential to be a top 3 guy at his position.
- Byron Cowart -- there's a LOT to clean up for him physically and personally, but there's a diamond in there somewhere, and he's still super young and learning the DT position. Longer term project, but could lead to a reward in the right culture/system.
- Khalen Saunders -- another maybe only pseudo sleeper, but sign me up for a guy his size that can do backflips on command...
DB:
- Ugo Amadi -- emotional leader of a tremendously improved Oregon defense. Do-it-all guy who's undersized, has a little honeybadger to his game.
- Kendall Sheffield -- highly rated HS recruit who will need to redshirt due to injury. High character kid with a lot of solid CB measurables -- injury probably drops his stock below where he'll contribute when healthy.
- Marvell Tell & Iman Marshall -- see Chuma Edoga... Great athletes, prototype size, underdeveloped.
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9 minutes ago, the skycap said:
No, we're into a 6'3" 230lb WR with a high catch radius, 40" vertical leap and a 4.3 40 yd. Stud OTs and DLs can be had in the later rounds. There are a variety of examples of this. Not so much a DK Metcalf type player
There's a lot of posters on this board who think that DK Metcalf became a draft prospect when that pic came out and all he is is a chiseled body and a great combine performance... Which is sad, because the reality, for those who were paying attention, is that Metcalf has been one of -- if not the -- top WR prospects for the past couple years.
It's funny, you can provide all the + arguments for him in the world and they make no impact, but any reference to "injuries" (which none of us can argue against because we have no idea how those checked out, not to mention the fact that logic would suggest he'd be off the board if his health didn't check out ?) or "route tree!!!" ignoring the fact that he compares physically and in tape review to guys like Calvin Johnson and Nuke Hopkins is all it takes to "win" the argument...
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On 4/13/2019 at 11:39 AM, Buffalo Barbarian said:
Domt know why its limited to 30 players, should be able to get as many as you want so you can get the best evaluation on a kid.
Just a guess -- probably to protect and keep things manageable for the kids -- these are still 21 and 22 year olds...
Imagine having to go to 32 job interviews in a matter of weeks, especially when they're as intrusive and intense as these are. Just not really feasible. Or beyond that, imagine being that kid and trying to keep some semblance of life balance in these final weeks -- you wouldn't want to turn any team meeting/interview/workout down... It'd just get to be too much. I don't know if these kids are technically part of the NFLPA yet, but that feels like something that they probably built into the system to manage loads...
Probably other reasons as well, but that's the one that comes to my mind...
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12 minutes ago, Agent 91 said:
The way I answer this is by asking first... where is Marquise Brown slated to be drafted
Hopefully to another team...
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6 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:
what is the best thing for Josh Allen ( the QB)
whatever it takes to help him realize his potential.
This is really all that needs to be said. Period. Full-stop. This franchise goes as Allen goes, so whatever helps him achieve that ceiling. We've shown that we can find undervalued defensive players, we've significantly improved the offensive line issues.To me, the biggest glaring holes of talent on this team are still TE and WR (yes, we've added to that unit, but Foster was undrafted for a reason, Zay has been hot and cold, Brown has issues with migraines and is a one-trick pony and Beasley is both tiny and has battled his own injury issues (Duke Williams is not a guy that should be counted on, at least in the "what is going to help our franchise QB hit his ceiling" discussion...) For a deep-throwing QB who excels in motion, a big-play/uber athlete at WR makes more sense to me than a solid/reliable TE. I just don't see it as a premium position...
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So incredibly myopic, got it. I find it hard to believe that a team with a raw rookie QB, a terrible OL and an undrafted rookie as its most dangerous offensive weapon is somehow going to be better than next years'? I just don't see that...
I'm far from a sunshine pumper, but we'll be at least middle-of-the road. -
Just now, Chuck Wagon said:
Yes. Time value of money. Best case our 2nd this year is roughly equal to our 1st next year due to the time value of money. Worst case, we traded a top ~5 pick instead of the 40th pick.
That's not even remotely what the time value of money means.
Unless you have an incredibly myopic view if the direction this team is headed, it's all but a guarantee that we will be picking later than 9th next year...
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7 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:
I would give up a 2nd this year over a 1st next year 10 times out of 10. I've never understood thinking the opposite, seems like incredibly short sighted gambling.
My overly simplified logic to trading next year's 1 vs. this year's 2 is twofold...
1. Call it the "gas pricing" strategy -- just like $2.99.99 will always feel less than $3.00, a first round pick will never not be a first round pick, and a second round pick will never BE a first round pick (so it psychologically, could have at least slightly greater perceived value in trade negotiations -- maybe you can get a 5 back or something because of the number)...
2. This year's picks are already set in stone -- we have the 8th pick in the 2nd round -- that's a valuable (relative to the round). Next year's picks are not. Obviously it' hyperbole, but if Q makes some MASSIVE difference and this team wins the Super Bowl, our first round pick next year is 32 -- not a good pick (relative to the round). Beyond that, with all of our free agency acquisitions, it's not hard to envision our pick at least being middle of the pack next year. Time value of money and all that... -
3 hours ago, TOboy said:
Or they are really interested and want to get a closer look, to determine if he's worth what it'll cost to move up.
I don't think everyone is done with their boards yet. Still evaluating.
Everyone is done evaluating -- have been for weeks now. That I can promise you. Short of a major issue like an injury or something unknown coming out, teams know (or, think they know) who these guys are.
That doesn't mean draft strategy isn't continuing to evolve (which is probably more what you're saying)... I said in another thread that if a couple QBs go higher than expected (which they always do) that it wouldn't be unsurprising for Q to fall to 5 or 6. At that point, Buffalo could absolutely get up to get him...-
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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
..interestingly Jack DelRio said on NFLN (FWIW) that he sees Metcalf's physique/work out warrior status overshadowing his actual abilities as a top WR...yes?..no?...maybe?......
I think you can make that argument -- certainly ONE OF the top WRs. There's a lot of ways to play WR -- not everyone needs to be Desean Jackson fast or run Antonio Brown type routes...
When you watch DK's tape a few things stand out:
1. He's extremely difficult to press and is a great hand fighter -- that creates separation
2. His mass + explosion creates a "snowball rolling downhill" effect very quickly, so he's hard to move off his route -- when you're where your QB needs you to be, when he needs you to be there, you don't have to have as much separation (+added bonus of playmaking ability with the ball in his hands)
3. His routes and short area quickness are far from perfect, but his size, strength and general size make him a bear fir defenders to have to work through. If he gets his face across the defender's, he's got him beat, end of story -- that's also separation
4. He's got an enormous catch radius -- that can also create separation both laterally and vertically
5. The concern about his lack of production -- for me -- isn't the lack of production, in itself at all, but rather the inability to have enough game tape to see him play and react to different situations... From the small sample size that there is though, it appears that he's also a very smart, focused and competitive WR. You can see him set up his man mid-route, you see catches that only the most gifted AND focused of players can make, and I don't think I saw one ball thrown his way that he didn't give 110% for.
6. On top of all of that, he can definitely be an effective run blocker, when he wants to be.
Cards on the table, I've fully talked myself into DK at this point, and (as has been said many, many times) no question he comes with some uncertainty... But at 9 -- barring Quinnen Williams falling far enough to be gettable -- and with the positive momentum this franchise has going for it, I think hitting on the highest ceiling player in the draft is too exciting of a prospect to pass on. If he's healthy, that is!!!
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Just now, suorangefan4 said:
You're the one being racist towards white people.
So explain to me why Isabella isn't the top receiver with his insane production and athleticism. Or why a lot of white wide receivers are way underdrafted.
First of all, I'm as white as they come, so you're barking up the wrong tree there. Second of all, who are all of these "a lot of white wide receivers" that are being "way underdrafted"???? The most successful contemporary white WRs are...
- Eric Decker -- was coming off of a devastating injury
- Wes Welker -- tiny, played in what was considered a gimmicky offense in a conference that doesn't play defense
- Jordy Nelson -- early 2nd round pick -- far from underdrafted
- Julian Edelman? -- transitioning from playing QB
- Chris Hogan? -- dude was a lacrosse player
Curious to know who all of these brilliant white football players are that you're referring to who were so devastatingly insulted in the draft...
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Just now, mannc said:
Bordering?
You're right. Figured I'd give him a little benefit of the doubt, but on rereading his post... there's nothing bordering about it.
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15 minutes ago, suorangefan4 said:
It's funny how white people created football (and pretty much every other sport) just like they create most things... yet they only make up a small percentage of football and basketball yet people still cry there aren't enough black QBs or coaches. No complaints at the lack of white players at every position though.
Isabella is super athletic and productive yet gets put behind black WRs with much worse production and combine numbers.
Weird how there's so many minorities who are millionaires in America thanks to things white people created yet they still act like you. There's far better opportunities here for minorities than there are in Arican countries that's for sure. But go ahead keep on with your hatred of whitey.
Boy, someone doesn't bother with subtext, does he?
Ignoring your ignorance, and flat-out racism, there's faaaaar too much on the line for coaches and GMs to play racial favorites. Andy Isabella being below "black WRs with much worse production and combine numbers" has more to do with his size and lack of competition than it does with his skin color.
But I'm sure you'd be fighting just as hard for his draft status if he were black...
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5 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:
DL/EDGE - 8
OT - 2
IOL - 2
WR - 3
TE - 3
DB - 5 (3CB/2S)
RB- 1
LB - 1
This list points to us going DL with pick 1, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. Lines up with what I want us to do though.
FYI - Darrell Henderson is visiting today per Cover1 on twitter
Worth looking at the draft ranges of the players too...
Bills brought in 3 WRs slated to go top 50, none later. Meanwhile they brought in 3 later rd. DL.
Obviously it's all projection and conjecture at this point, but you could probably also say that the list points to a wr early and a DL later... ?♂️
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45 minutes ago, suorangefan4 said:
White wide receivers always seem to be really underdrafted though. Funny how the the league and analysts never cry about how white positional players always get disrespected.
?Yeah, white people have had it soooooo hard...
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12 minutes ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:
Based on production and skill.
So based off your comment you would've hated drafting Khalil Mack because he dominated the MAC? You wouldn't like Andrew Luck cuz he dominated the great Pac-10? I could care less what conference you play in.
Except there's statistical precedent here...
Of the top 30 all-time leaders in passing yards, you can argue that 3 QBs have "made it" from the Big 12 (and that's including Sam Bradford).
Of the top 25 all-time leaders in receiving yards, the best pro is... Wes Welker? Michael Crabtree? Roy Williams? Far from a star-studded list.
You can certainly pick out exceptions to the rule, but that doesn't make the rule wrong. The Big 12 doesn't play a lot of defense.
I like Brown as a player, but between his size -- not that he can't win a jump ball -- I'm afraid he's going to get destroyed by NFL safeties, and the play style redundancy for the Bills, I'm hoping we pass on him too.
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Bills wait until day 2 to take a TE and DL and a lot of this board freaks out.
Bills make a big swing on day one (my guess -- trades up for a second, first-rd pick)...
Bills figure out a way to get Kendall Sheffield.
Bills don't draft a LB until late in day 3, if at all... -
27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think it will either. To be honest I am not convinced they will take a receiver in day 1 or day 2 unless someone really falls (like if Harry was there when they pick in the third).
This wouldn't surprise me, but would also be disappointing... I know "good enough" is never good enough, but I think our defense, as is, really is good enough to keep us competitive...
JA needs weapons. Beasley is a nice add and I like Smokey Brown, but the jury is still very much out on Zay and, while he had an impressive second half to his year, I worry that some of Foster's success was a function of teams: a) making Allen beat them deep; and b) not having much of a scouting report on him/underestimating him as a player.
Another way to say the above: I think adding a defensive piece or two could take us from, say a B+ to maybe an A-... Adding someone like DK and Irv Smith could take our offense from C+/B- to potentially a B+/A- range... I like the larger bump, personally...
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Patterns from OBD that have emerged in the Draft
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by glazeduck
Great accumulation of thoughts here...
To your point on 4.1: just because there's not a clear-cut defined starter doesn't mean that person isn't on the roster -- specifically at RT and CB2, I think we're fine with the guys that have been brought in.
You touched on it, but there seems to be some thought given to the depth pipeline as well... It's a little extreme, but I think if we could consolidate 10 picks into 4 talented players at 3T, WR, TE and RB, I'd be very happy with that outcome...
My dream scenario (emphasis on dream):
1. Trade up to 5 to get Quinnen Williams
2. Package Zay and 2 to get DK
3. Bundle most of our remaining picks to get a top TE
4. Grab a higher potential RB in the late rounds