glazeduck
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Posts posted by glazeduck
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9 minutes ago, TigerJ said:
If Buffalo does draft a WR, my preference would be that they pick up a guy with size to balance out the group some. Robert Foster is not a smurf at 6'2" and Duke Williams has some nice size to him, but we could use a bit more. There are lots of receivers in this draft with size. I'm pretty intrigued by Miles Boykin. He needs some development, but he's an elite athlete and has a great attitude. There are other too. It's not limited to DK Metcalf and Hakeem Butler.
We can always hope, but I think the best way to think about Williams is as a free lotto ticket -- don't expect him to be anything, but if he pays off it's (obviously) gravy...
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Great topic...
WANT
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Mid-first:
- DK Metcalf -- a lot on this board don't want him, and I get it, but I want a dynastic Bills team, not a *good* team... I say swing for the fences -- that's DK.
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Late first/early/mid-second:
- Butler -- tantalizing potential and not hard to see how a guy with his catch radius could help a QB with less-than-pinpoint accuracy.
- Harry -- love how physical he plays. With Smokey and Foster stretching the sidelines, he could be a matchup nightmare against smaller DBs and/or LBs.
- AJ Brown/Deebo Samuel -- smaller dudes but would be very happy with either. Brown just seems to be a natural, but I question his ceiling... I LOOOOOOVE Samuel. If we didn't have an entire roster of 6' WRs I'd be dying for him to join the Bills, but would ideally like a bigger dude.
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Mid-rounds:
- Riley Ridley -- seems to have a safe floor and a high ceiling... may end up being a great value.
- Mecole Hardman -- kills me that we signed Beasley to such a big deal because this guy is exactly who we need. Multipurpose weapon, great kick returner, innate ability to get open in the slot... Probably won't happen but he'll definitely be a fun one to watch.
- Miles Boykin -- craaaaaazy potential, seems like the type of guy we could let grow slowly with 4 solid WRs.
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Late:
- Antoine Wesley -- poor man's Butler
- Preston Williams/Anthony Johnson/Lil'Jordan Humphrey/Tyre Brady -- prototype big WRs with "artificial" (or at least superficial) deflation
- Jalen Hurd -- just starting to play the position. Great athlete, big upside.
AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
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First Couple Rounds:
- JJ Arcega-Whiteside -- TE in a WRs body, one-trick pony (and that trick is starting to die out in the analytics-driven NFL)
- Parris Campbell -- Speed blinds, drops nullify.
- Kelvin Harmon -- Separation is the name of the game in the NFL these days. If he was a Metcalf-like athlete he'd be a no-brainer, but bad athleticism coupled with poor ability to separate means trouble against pro DBs.
- Isabella -- Sorry, just don't see it. If he was as good as many here think he is, we would've heard of him prior to the senior bowl.
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Later:
- Hunter Renfrow -- Small hands aren't worth what he could produce... Not like he's the second coming of Randy Moss.
- David Sills -- See JJAW, pedestrian athlete. As a UDFA, sure, but don't waste a draft pick on him.
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Mid-first:
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53 minutes ago, Turk71 said:
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dillon-mitchell?id=32194d49-5422-8980-b5b6-45b020209f4e
https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39033/dillon-mitchell
Met my wife 23 years ago at the U of O and still live there part of the year. We go to a few games every year and watch all the other games on TV. I hadn't heard about those work ethic questions either before reading some scouting reports. I think he will be drafted around the 5th or 6th round personally but I have seen late round to undrafted projections on a couple draft sites.
I do think another year with Herbert might have been a good idea for him but maybe he was concerned his target share could change. He is fun to watch and I would be psyched if the Bills get him.
Awesome, go Ducks!
Yeah TMitch would be awesome on the Bills and probably a solid value. Not overly concerned about those rumors... they gotta say something (see: Mariotta's "no red flags red flag...)
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2 hours ago, Turk71 said:
Oregon jr. wr Dillon Mitchell. Can play slot or outside, dangerous after the catch. May not be a process guy as his maturity and work ethic have been questioned. Was hoping he would come back for one more year with Herbert and I think it would have improved his stock. Probably a late round or undrafted prospect at this point but the talent is definitely there imo.
I'm a duck and have followed Oregon for 20 years and have never heard one word of DMitch having maturity or work ethic questions.
There was a time where he was thinking of walking away from football, but actually put in MORE work and re-found his love for the game.
He's definitely getting drafted. I wouldn't be shocked if it was late 3 or early 4... definitely not going undrafted.
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HARDEST of passes...
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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:
So nothing there points to how ONE is a Sure thing and the OTHER isn't.
I mean Aaron Donald cannot possibly be the best DT in the league because he came from PITT and not the SEC (take those SEC rose glasses off, it really helps in looking at player traits)
Neither are a sure thing. I didn't say they were. But one has quite a few more flags than the other.
Bills have picks to spend to get the right guy. At the right price, we should all hope they're willing to do that.
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14 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:
So how again is Williams a sure pick and Oliver might not pan out?
The fact is BOTH might not pan out. So makes more sound sense using one pick on a player vice multiple picks
One dominated the SEC and is prototype size.
The other was up and down in the... [literally having to check what league Houston is in] AAC and is undersized for the position...
Not sure what else there is to say about it but if you consider the two comparable then we're not going to see eye to eye on this one...
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I think this is a real possibility... Most fans speculating and formulating their opinions on these players and general trade values are basing them on industry mocks... What those mocks aren't taking into account, often, are teams moving up for QBs. That happening is about as routine as the sun rising.
I'm not saying the Bills will trade up to 2 or 3 for Quinnen, but if you assume that the top of the draft features a few teams trading up for QBs and the possibility of Bosa and possibly Allen going ahead of Williams, depending on what teams are looking for...
It's not inconceivable that he falls to 5 or 6, at which point I could see the Bills moving a pick or two to get Williams. I know a lot of people here like Oliver, but the fact is that he's not a guarantee... Tough to take a guy who may or may not pan out that high. Williams looks like as sure a pick as there is in this draft and fits a HUGE need...
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20 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:
Oh, the Charles Manson thing obviously was just a joke! Lighten up Francis. That said, I'm not touching this guy with a ten foot pole if I were a NFL GM. I've seen the video as well, and it makes the Ray Rice video look like an episode of Sesame Street. And that's like....just my opinion, noob ?
Light as a feather my friend -- I knew it was a joke. Just thought it was interesting that you brought a bazooka to a knife fight
Believe me, I get that what he did is a red flag to some. I've noticed that Buffalo fans, especially, are very focused on character -- which is great! Violence towards women is never okay, but I also think it's okay to give people second chances, again, especially when what they did happened as a kid and doesn't show a pattern of behavior. Just my take.
In a perfect world, he goes on to become a superstar (for the Bills) and takes the Mike Vick route and uses his position and success to help change the paradigm...
Kid is top-10 talent (Tillery is not) if he fell to us in the 2nd, I'd be okay with giving him that chance...
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2 hours ago, Rufridr101 said:
Cj Anderson is a younger better ivory and is highly motivated. Definitely would be on board with this.
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20 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:
Isn’t Simmons the one in the video beating the snot out of a woman? If so, I’d rather draft Charles Manson.
He is. And I never said he was a choirboy, though interesting you'd rather draft a mass murderer who tried to institute a race riot ?...
Simmons' incident happened in high school and he's had no issues since then. That doesn't absolve or justify his actions, I've seen the tape, what he did was horrendous. That said, he was an 18 year old kid and people grow and mature. It's unfortunate, but the NFL is full of players who've had past transgressions, Leonard Little was allowed to play after multiple fatal DUIs... Sometimes talent wins out.
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Tillery and Jeffrey Simmons would be names to watch in the 2nd.
Past that, I really like Khalen Saunders in the 4th
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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:
Here are some unsigned Options (not going to list the tagged players) in positions in case looking for some more depth
CB
Ronald Darby
Bryce Callahan
Marris Claibone
Rashaan Melvin
Darqueze Dennard
Kayvon Webster
Trevor Williams (RFA)
DE
Ziggy Ansah
Justin Houston
Bruce Irvin
Derrick Morgan
Nick Perry
Shaq Barrett
Shane Ray
Adrian Clayborne
DT
Timmy Jernigan
David Irving - May be done with football
Muhammad Wilkerson
Darius Philon
Bent Urban
Corey Liuget
RB
Jay Ajayi
CJ Anderson
Alex Collins (RFA)
Spencer Ware
TJ Yeldon
LB
Zach Brown
Jamie Collins
Josh Bynes
Brandon Marshall
Jake Ryan
OL
T.J Lang
Josh Kline
Andy Levitre
Josh Sitton
George Fant
Ted Karras (RFA)
TE
Tyler Eifert
Jared Cook
Austin Seferian Jenkins
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Tre Boston
Clayton Geathers
Adrian Phillips
A lot of these guys (Ansah, Wilkerson, Irvin, to name a few) are still going to get paid...
That said, if cheap enough, sign me up for any of:
Callahan, Dennard, literally ANY of the DEs mentioned, Jernigan, Wilkerson, Liuget, Marshall, Sitton or Vit, Boston, and any of the TEs mentioned...
Again though, I don't think most of those guys will be had at bargain bin prices...
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My reading of the tea leaves (based off of the actual players they brought in and how the contracts were structured) is that Beane is going to be looking at bringing in a lot of guys to develop for a year and really look to blow out the depth of this team for a longer term run at things...
To me, perfect probably looks something like this:
1. [UNLESS Quinnen Williams falls (he won't)] Trade down to teens -- fully on board with this -- take Jonah Williams, Taylor or Dillard
1b. Trade back up to late 1 -- also fully on board with this -- take Jeffrey Simmons
2. Take best available big-bodied WR (my board would be: Metcalf, Butler, Harry, AJ Brown)
3. Take Josh Oliver -- LOVE this kid at TE
4. Best RB available
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14 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:
I actually agree with your take on Oliver. In regards to Wilkins, it works both ways. He played with talented guys but he also might’ve been held back because he didn’t need to dominate every game. I think the Alabama game answered a lot of those questions when Lawrence was out and they needed Wilkins to dominate and he did on the biggest stage against other guys who are gonna play in the NFL.
Agreed, to a certain extent. He played great in the Natty, and no Lawrence wasn't next to him, but (just playing Devil's advocate at this point) that's both a one-game sample size and against some of the worst interior line play Bama has had in a long long time. I think it's less that I think he's bad, and more than I just don't want to take much risk with a prime pick like that. I will say, if we traded down into the teens, I'd be MUCH MUCH more okay with this pick, but if I had my druthers, we'd just take Simmons at the end of Rd. 1 (or hope he falls to us in Rd. 2) and sign a stop-gap FA for a year...
If we really feel the need for a DL in this draft, take Khalen Saunders or Terry Beckner in the 4th... I think you'd get 80-85% of the production with minimal risk...
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I just can't bring myself to get onboard with either Oliver or Wilkins. I'm not going to flat out call either a bust, but I have concerns that either will live up to the draft hype, and we cannot afford to miss on top-10 picks...
Granted, it's a bit of an apples/oranges comparison, because most saw John McCargo as a bad pick to begin with, but I'd be afraid of a similar situation drafting ANY of those Clemson defensive lineman... McCargo benefited immensely by playing next to Mario Williams and Manny Lawson and as a result was grossly overdrafted. I can't tell you which player I think is the McCargo and which are the Mario/Lawson on that Clemson line, but I do think any of them pose some risk there -- none of Wilkins/Bryant/Lawrence/Ferrell are great athletes, Lawrence has the PEDs issue, etc. I just think between inferior ACC competition and playing together for as long as they did, the whole was better than the sum of those parts... Don't get me wrong, I LOVE that attitude, and it certainly seems like Wilkins would fit well in this locker room, but I don't see him being a major disruptor in the NFL. Hope I'm wrong, seems like an awesome kid.
Oliver, to me, feels like the NFL's version of Marcus Fizer. NBA scouts thought Fizer was too big and strong for small forwards to guard and too quick and athletic for power forwards... Instead, he was too small and weak to do anything against PFs and too slow/not skilled enough to beat SFs... Oliver's first step is exciting, but to me, I'm worried that he's too small to constantly contribute in the trenches AND stay healthy, yet not athletic enough to play on the edge. I think you're drafting him hoping and praying that he can become Melvin Ingram, but Ingram dominated against vastly superior competition and STILL took 4 years to emerge into much of anything...
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I posted this in another thread, but definitely think it fits this discussion too --- definitely worth the read! https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/debunking-the-myth-of-the-weak-2019-wr-class The gist is that the NFL is evolving into a league where the definition of "#1 WR" no longer has to mean the Randy Moss/TO prototype. As Beane said at the combine, it's more about guys who can figure out a way to get open and/or schemes to get them open. So if the question is, do we need DK Metcalf to win, the above would suggest no.
That being said, there are a variety of ways of getting open, and the NFL will always be a league where mismatches are highly sought after. So it's also not unfair to say, simply walking off the bus, that DK Metcalf possess advantages in his height, verticality and physicality that John Brown does not. Another way of saying this is that physical attributes are still an advantage (duh) but not the be-all/end-all that they once were perceived to be.
With yesterday's pickups, we have speed to stretch the field in Brown and Foster, and guys who can work the seems and the middle in Zay and Beasley... What we lack is that vertical/physical/catch-radius component (which might be critical, given JA's less than pinpoint accuracy) that can be so critical in extending drives and succeeding in the red zone.
Going into the draft, I loved Deebo Samuel and McClaurin, but given everything above, I think if we go WR early, it will likely be more of the big bodied type. Not, necessarily because you need that to win, but because it will contribute to the diversity of this offense (just please don't let it be JJ Arcega-Whiteside!!! ?)...
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2 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:
Like I said.....a disappointment.
Disappointment, yes. They've also been using him incorrectly.
To me, he's Shaq Lawson +++ and would be a very nice complement to Hughes, while also essentially extending our "rookie contract investment" that we're on with Shaq currently. If the price were cheap enough, he's all upside...
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Given how many holes we've addressed... I wouldn't be altogether shocked if we tried to trade up for Quinnen Williams.
Might just be my biases, but to me there's a lot of question marks around Oliver, Dre'Mont Jones, Wilkins and obviously Simmons is hurt... Williams is the cleanest prospect in the DT group by far...
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14 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
Solomon Thomas available? Give them Zay?
Seems like Thomas could be had for less than that. Would be an awesome pickup on the cheap...
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Think about Duke like a free lottery ticket...
Sure, he's got a chance to hit, and if so, you're in the money with absolutely nothing invested! If he doesn't, and odds are probably against him hitting, it's (hopefully) nothing you were counting on as an investment strategy...
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While I think that narrative is a bit overblown, I also think its fair to look at the franchise's history with marquee FAs and recognize that they're really only ever landed one.
Today and yesterday have been exciting, but I don't see any of these guys -- perhaps with the exception of Morse (who still has injury questions) as any different from past years. I think the easy way to look at it is -- what would the LA Rams, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, etc. have offered guys like Brown or Beasley -- I think the clear answer is less. So while this season has perhaps been moving the needle in the right direction, I don't think that narrative is completely false, either.
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5 minutes ago, H2o said:
Not true. His stats with Flacco were way better and not a disappointment. Jackson isn't much of a throwing QB.
Yep, I was going to post the same thing, when playing with Flacco he put up good numbers, drew several PIs (that obviously don't go to his stats) and just missed on several other big plays.
Unmentioned is the fact that our top 3 WRs are all very versatile and can succeed from multiple spots in the formation...
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4 minutes ago, jahnyc said:
I thought durability was a big thing with Beane. Another player with very recent injury issues? Starting to get concerned.
No question it's less than ideal, but taking measured risks like this is really our only path back to relevance. Gotta win on the margins in small markets.
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WR draft prospects
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
My comment on DK wasn't referring to deep balls, although he could absolutely be a deep ball nightmare... I was saying "go big or go home" -- go for the special player, not the really good one...
Butler isn't the athlete that Moss was and ditto for Julio and Harry. But definitely think they'll both have good careers.
Medicals have to check out, but if they do, 100% agree.
I think you can even trade down and still get him.