Typical TBD Guy

Anyone have a complete list of Bills GM's? All I have so far are: Dick Gallagher: 1960 - ???? INSERT INFO HERE... Terry Bledsoe: ???? - 1985 Bill Polian: 1986 - 1992 John Butler: 1993 - 2000 Tom Donahoe: 2001 - now Just curious, as I'm trying to fill in some holes for this Bills booklet I'm making for my dad (it's a Christmas present, and he's as big a Bills fan as it gets). Thanks for any help you can provide, guys! Oh, and I've tried searching all over the internet, so spare me your semi-witty njsue/google comments

You can? Then what's your excuse for Week 8's results? Try again, troll...

Think it will become one of those "tear-down-the-goal posts" kind of days?

Curse this new sh-- filter!

Here you go, Mr. sh--: Playoff Scenarios Playoff Scenario Probabilities

Can you pick her out of this lineup?

Oops, I meant to type 80% likelihood, not 20%. The end-result percentage numbers are all still accurate; that was just a typo.

No doubt, the individual game percentages will have to be changed and updated each week - this playoff probability "algorithm" was meant to be dynamic. As long as the Bills keep winning, I'll keep updating each week. I don't know if what I did was at all helpful or interesting to anyone else, but it does put things in perspective - at least for me. Now, when family and friends call me up to ask about the Bills, I can say that I think they have a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning out, a roughly 2 in 3 chance of getting outside help from other teams, and a roughly 1 in 15 chance of making the playoffs.

I was originally going to add this: Probability of Bills getting outside help: 63.84% Bills (H) over Browns - 80% likelihood Bills over Bengals (H) - 40% Bills over 49ers (H) - 80% Bills (H) over Steelers - 40% Probability of Bills finishing 10-6 - 10.24% Total Probability of making playoffs - 6.54% But that last number was too depressing...

Now I know I'm labeled a Bledsoe Basher among the inner circle of the Bledsoe Apologists crew, but I will say this: great post. Is Drew's second-half career flop more the result of Drew or of his coaches and the lack of continuity among the offensive systems he's been told to run? I don't know for sure, but I do know that anything's possible and that you could very well be right.

I did all the math right. Don't worry about that. Worry about my individual game percentages. There's 16 of them. Here they are: Week 14: Steelers (H) over Jets - 80% likelihood Giants over Ravens (H) - 20% Dolphins over Broncos (H) - 20% Bears over Jags (H) - 20% Week 15: Seahawks over Jets (H) - 40% likelihood Colts (H) over Ravens - 80% Chiefs (H) over Broncos - 50% Packers (H) over Jags - 80% Week 16: EDIT: Patriots over Jets (H) - 80% likelihood Steelers (H) over Ravens - 80% Titans (H) over Broncos - 40% Texans over Jags (H) - 40% Week 17: Rams (H) over Jets - 60% likelihood Dolphins over Ravens (H) - 20% Colts over Broncos (H) - 50% Raiders (H) over Jags - 40% I want everyone's feedback on my percentages. I kept them simple by only giving out 5 different possibilities: 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 80%. However, now that I worked out the raw probability template, it's only a matter of number substitution. So basically, give me your opinion and feel free to be more specific (as in, feel free to make your percentage increments by 5% or whatever). Thanks, The Kelso

ICE=John Kerry.

1. We won't find a difference-maker DE in round 2 or later 2. Free agent difference-maker DE's will be way too expensive for us. 3. With our current DE's as they are, and given the injuries to Milloy and Vincent throughout the season, we are still the #4 overall D, #4 in rushing and #9 in passing. Conclusion: In the salary cap era, we can't have All-Pros at every position. Schobel and Kelsay aren't future HOF'ers, but they'll do.

Because the 9-3 team happens to be just as - if not more so - likely to lose 3 games as the two 7-5 teams are to lose 2.

And don't forget we have the #1 special teams unit in the NFL...special teams could be the X factor in any tight playoff game. Plus, in a dome, even Rian friggin Lindell could make a few critical field goals beyond 35 yds.

You make a very good point. If the Bengals beat the Pats away, then even Mr. Spikes will be stevestojanning in his pants for the Week 15 matchup. Thanks for the input, guys. I've edited that matchup in my list above...

While I agree with both of you on your opinion of the final game of the season (if we have won 6 straight and 9 of 11 coming back to The Ralph, the Steelers are the ones who will be the underdogs...), why NOT make the road to the playoffs a little easier? That's all I'm saying when I have us rooting for the Steelers to wrap up the #1 seed. Also, please note that the Bengals CANNOT be eliminated after next week, win or lose to the Pats. So basically, they will be playing their little hearts out against us no matter what in Week 15.

That outcome will best help the Steelers wrap up the #1 seed before they play us in the final game, thus making it easier for us to beat them and go 10-6 for the season. We want the Steelers ranked above the Pats in playoff seeding because we need the Steelers' help anyway in beating the Ravens and Jets; meanwhile, we only need the Pats to beat the Jets.

Once again, this is all conditional on the Bills winning the rest of their games. If they lose even 1, due to their horrid AFC record (3-6), the outside help they'll need gets ridiculous to the point that it's no longer worth keeping a playoff scenario tracker. In order for the Bills to make the playoffs, they will need 3 of the following 4 scenarios to occur for the #6 seed, all 4 to occur for the #5 seed: 1. Jets lose at least 3 games (one of them MUST be the Patriots) 2. Ravens lose at least 2 games 3. Broncos lose at least 2 games 4. Jags lose at least 1 game Full remaining schedule breakdown of who to root for: (*** - critical, must-win Bills games) (* - games that directly, i.e. mathematically, affect our playoff chances at this time) (NOTE: I may have to make a couple changes to our Week 16 + 17 favorites if the Chargers and/or Colts start tanking while the Broncos and/or Jags start surging, respectively...neither are very likely, though, so take 'er easy) Week 14: 1pm games: Bills (H) over Browns *** Bears over Jags (H) * EDIT: Pats (H) over Bengals Texans (H) over Colts Giants over Ravens (H) * 4pm games: Steelers (H) over Jets * Bucs over Chargers (H) Fins over Broncos (H) * Week 15: Saturday games: Steelers over Giants (H) 1pm games: Bills over Bengals (H) *** Chiefs (H) over Broncos * Seahawks over Jets (H) * Browns (H) over Chargers 4pm games: Packers (H) over Jags * Sunday night game: Colts (H) over Ravens * Monday night game: Dolphins (H) over Patriots Week 16: Saturday games: Titans (H) over Broncos * 1pm games: Steelers (H) over Ravens * Texans over Jags (H) * Chargers vs. Colts (H) - too early to choose sides, really 4pm games: Bills over 49ers (H) *** Patriots over Jets (H) * Week 17 1pm games: Bills (H) over Steelers *** Fins over Ravens (H) * Rams (H) over Jets * 49ers over Patriots (H) 4pm games: Chiefs over Chargers (H) Raiders (H) over Jags * Colts over Broncos (H) * I'll keep updating each week as long as we keep on winning...

Here are this season's stats to verify what you just said: Price: 12 games, 29 receptions, 458 yds, 2 TD Evans: 12 games, 29 receptions, 554 yds, 5 TD

Actually, the Jets can still win 1 more as long as it isn't against the Patriots.

I wonder what his 40 time would be now?

Please don't forget the 9-3 Jets. Look at their remaining schedule: @ Pitt - L? Seattle - W? NE - L? @ St. Louis - L? 10-6, with a loss to NE in Week 16, would give a 10-6 Bills team the tiebreaker.

That's friggen hilarious!

That's friggen hilarious!