JGMcD2
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Posts posted by JGMcD2
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10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:
Watching Wentz looking absolutely clueless this year and badly regressing makes me really wonder...how much was Reich responsible for his successes? It seems like he started downhill once Reich left and this year he has hit rock bottom...he may no longer be a starting caliber QB in this league.
And that is what I worry about with Allen a little bit...Daboll has been instrumental to his success and maturation into a star for us...how much would Allen regress(if at all) if Daboll leaves for a HC coaching job this offseason. There are expected to be a lot of opening, more so than any other year in recent memory perhaps, and Daboll has been a hot name for a year or two now.
Can someone clue me in on the offense that Wentz was running early on in Philadelphia?
It seems to me that Daboll has forced Josh to go down a more traditional path and learn all of the really hard stuff from the get go. I think that bodes well for long term development because anyone who potentially comes in after Daboll, likely won’t be running as complex of an offense.
Just a thought
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2 minutes ago, hemma said:
Josh got his taunting call for spinning the ball, then a mild reminder from McDermott that a second offense would lead to a disqual.
I started thinking about that and remembered that he did another ballspin later in the game.
At 3:45 in the 4th, he had a 13 yard run from the Chargers 24 on a 3rd and 9. It ended up being negated by 2 other Offensive penalties, but while on his knees, he spun the ball again.
Officials didn't notice as they were already chit-chatting about the other 2 penalties.
He needs to immediately get that little ball spin gimmick out of his game.
The issue wasn’t spinning the ball, it was spinning the ball in the face of the opposing team’s player.
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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Put a little more out there - when healthy (5 games) Ekelar collects 6. Kellen Ballage (he's pretty good) collects 6. Joshua Kelley, 4th round rookie RB, gets 2 or 3.
Jalen Guyton is the only UDFA I see who's getting significant targets. He gets about 3 targets/game.
Far cry from "throwing to mostly UDFA"
Wellllll technically Austin Ekeler falls in the UDFA bucket... UDFA in 2017. 😉
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12 minutes ago, mannc said:
That’s not who they’ve had for much of the season. Herbert put up 300 yard games throwing to mostly UDFAs. And the LA online is worse than philly’s.
Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen have played in all 11 games. Mike Williams 10/11 games.
Williams averages ~ 6 targets a game.
Allen averages ~ 11 targets a game.
Henry averages ~ 7 targets per game.
Herbert averages 40 attempts per game and 60% of them are in the direction of Williams, Allen, Henry.
Where exactly are you getting your information from?
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16 minutes ago, mannc said:
With all due respect, you sound like Brian Griese. Wentz is completely shot. He can’t process what’s in front of him and can’t get the ball to open receivers (yes, there are plenty of those). The o-line and WRs aren’t great, but they aren’t any worse than what Herbert has to work with, and they are miles better than what Allen had in 2018. If Pederson deserves criticism, it’s for not playing Hurts.
They’re MUCH worse that what Justin Hebert has... Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen?
Wentz has primarily been throwing to Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham and Richard Rodgers this year. Miles Sanders has missed time too. Only one of his offensive lineman have played in over 10 games.
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8 hours ago, HappyDays said:
What’s exciting about this is we did it against some really really good offenses.
1 top 5 according to DVOA (SEA) and two top 12 (LAC & ARI) in weeks 7-12.
In terms of total offense (which is what you see on the graphic during the broadcast) they’re 3 of the top 5... Arizona at 2, LAC at 3 and Seattle at 5.
Interestingly enough we’ve faced 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 10 on the season.
Hopefully these are permanent positive changes we are seeing!
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29 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:
Nice work! Thank you,
This info does fly in the face of the fire Beane / McDermott sucks posters here, but that should come as no surprise, they are the hot take drama queens of our corner of the football world, again thanks for your work to present this, It does gives a reasonable perspective on our decision makers. 👍
Go Bills!!!
You got it... just trying to do something a little different. Opinions are great but are often skewed... it’s hard for any one to see all 32 teams and evaluate every player outside of a glance here and there.
This isn’t perfect by any means but at least it kind of casts a wide net, and relates it to the entire league. -
55 minutes ago, Rew said:
Great work pulling this together. I'm not sure that AV is the perfect metric here, but I can't think of anything better (which is sort of the problem).
A missing piece to this, and much more challenging to track, would be the inclusion of trades and some way of valuing based on draft location. If I understand your ranking correctly, any team that trades away picks will show up lower in the ranking and any team that habitually amasses draft picks should do better. One suggestion would be to average a teams AV per round and then rank based on round performance. This would also be controversial though, because it would rank 2 average players the same as drafting an all pro and bust. In that case, what is best? Someone who is risk averse would prefer the 2 decent players to just 1 blue chip player. I think the blue chip hit rate is likely going to be more correlated with team success.
By no means do I think it’s perfect, I wish there was something better than AV, but it’s hard or else I start comparing apples to oranges... this is at least apples to apples. I was glad some of the findings at least passed the eye test with teams like NE doing pretty well in FA but not the draft recently... or IND doing really well in both, they’re just missing a QB to make them truly elite IMO.
Yeah, you’re 100% right. Draft pick trades/trades in general is probably the next step along with smoothing this all around the edges as well.
The FA stuff was time consuming and pick trades are pretty intertwined, so it would take a bit... but I’ll probably take a crack at it. I’m also not sure the best way to value that, I’d have to look into it and think on it.
I could probably do what you’re suggesting and just find the AV over ~20+ years for rounds 1-7 and calculate the NET for each team from 2017-2019. Maybe? Idk I have to think deeper.
Your point you bring up at the end is a really good one... I’m used to discussing it through the lens of baseball. My personal feeling in baseball is in Rounds 1-2 you should be drafting a low variance college player and then supplementing the low variance with high risk in future rounds.
Similar concept here, do I take a Josh Allen RD1 and then to safe in later rounds? Do I take a Saquon Barkley (pretty low variance guy) and then go someone high risk in RD2-3?
A lot to chew on... thanks for the response!
53 minutes ago, JohnRVA said:Thanks for pulling this together. This passes the eye test IMHO. We had so little talent when they arrived that we might have kept more draft pics than usual and maybe that helps our average?
I see what you’re saying, yeah that very well could be the case. Probably best to relate it all to the # of picks like suggested above. Although just off the top of my head I feel like we haven’t made more than 7-8 picks in a given draft, and trades a bunch away to move up for guys like Josh, Tremaine, Ford, Dawkins, etc.
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I started to discuss some of this in another thread about what folks consider a successful draft. Nobody really had a great way to measure success in the draft outside of their perception of a player.. I wanted to make an attempt at examining this objectively. Pro Football Reference has their Weighted Approximate Value which assigns a value to a player based on their performance. It's not an all encompassing stat like WAR is in baseball, it definitely has its flaws, but PFR said it's steady to use to measure draft success. I'm going to dive into the results below on the draft, as well as some analysis I have done of the FA signings. Nothing is really over the top, I'm going to take some feedback and try to refine this. I had to do a lot of it by hand in excel and couldn't just scrape everything because different pieces were all over.
I chose 2017 specifically because that is when Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived. Some folks want to argue that Beane shouldn't get credit for that draft and FA, which is perfectly fine. I am in the camp that believes McDermott and Beane are in lockstep, they make up the upper management of the football department, therefore the decisions made since 2017 have been made with certain goals in mind. I don't feel the need to omit 2017 because it was scrambled, it's very clear these two are close and the decisions made were made by McBeane in some way, shape or form starting in 2017.
"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.
AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR
The career AV is computed by summing
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so onYou will also see DrAV, which is just the Weighted Career Approximate Value but solely for the team that drafted them, so we won't get credit for Wyatt Teller performing well in CLE because it's not helping the Bills. Using 2019 may be a little premature but that's the case across the board for every team. I omitted 2020 because they don't have those draft values... this will be a fun exercise to conduct even further down the road when we have some more clarity on how McBeane's picks pan out. But to give us an idea of what things look like right now in comparison to the rest of the NFL... Here we go..
If you look at the McBeane drafts (2017-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see that the Bills have been a top 5 drafting team in the NFL since McBeane arrived. The Colts, Ravens, and 49ers are all ranked above us, with New Orleans right below. This lines up fairly well with what a lot of posters have said with those teams being very good drafters, but the Bills are right up there with them. This will obviously fluctuate the longer players play in the NFL, but that also includes them being retained by their drafting team in order to continue to provide value. Based on what I saw we could actually rise because of the great season Josh is having - we're actually top 5 while including Josh's below league average performance in his first two seasons. This could also drop with the inclusion of the 2020 Draft, but as of right now the first 3 McBeane drafts look like they went pretty well when compared to their peers.
I should note that 5 teams should probably be removed from the discussion because their GMs came in after 2017. I'm not including BAL and GB in that number because DeCosta and Gutenkunst were the top lieutenants in each city and are an extension of Newsome and Thompson who are both still heavily involved with their organizations. The teams that should probably be removed to fairly recognize the new GMs that came after 2017 are the NYJ, NYG, WSH, OAK and CLE. Regardless, McBeane was been at the top of the league as of the end of the 2019 season.
I also dove into free agency, this took a lot longer to put together and could probably use some feedback. My methodology was taking all free agents signed between 2017 and 2019 and applying each player's Weighted Approximate Value to the team once they were signed. I will walk through the chart below to give you a better understanding of what I found.
The far left column shows the team. The next column is the total Weighted Approximate Value that each organization has acquired via free agency since 2017. The Bills are highlighted there and they actually have the most AV acquired via free agency in the entire NFL since 2017, they're the only team over 200 AV. If I were to just add up the AV that has been brought to Buffalo since 2017 the Bills would be far and away the best with 380 with only NO (335) and IND (311) clearing the 300 AV mark.
I don't necessarily thing that's the best way to break things down though. Each team spent a different amount of money to acquire those players and brought in a different number of players as well. I like to use $/WAR in baseball to see the best player value, so I tried to use something similar here with with $/AV. The Bills are still above average here but they're around 12th in the NFL. The Rams, Seahawks and Patriots pace the NFL in this category, which makes a lot of sense the way the teams have been constructed in recent years.
The only team that ranks higher than the Bills in both DrAV and $/AV in FA is Indianapolis. New Orleans is very close as well, as they're one spot behind us in DrAV. Overall it looks like some teams are good at one or the other, or just plain bad at both. Nobody outside of Indianapolis, New Orleans and Buffalo has had substantial success in both the draft and FA since 2017. Teams like SEA, LAC and PIT seem to be in the next tier. It's a little bit of validation for some of the top organizations in the NFL.
I think most can agree IND, NO, PIT and SEA are well run. Buffalo is right up there with them, if not better based on this analysis. There are undoubtedly flaws, but this is a little bit closer to being objective then some people just FEELING that certain teams are so much better run than the Bills.
I'm open to thoughts and feedback, feel free to rip me apart... as long as you bring some facts and a thoughtful argument 😀
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9 hours ago, MJS said:
Nice work. This will be an interesting thing to look at going forward. Is this same type of thing possible for free agency classes (isolating the time played with current team only, not time with previous teams).
That would provide a full GM picture if you can look at draft classes AND free agency classes. You could then combine the metrics to come up with a single GM score card somehow.
Yes, it will take a little longer because I'll have to go by hand and separate their time with the team after signing, the draft table was laid out pretty nicely where I could just apply some formulas and throw it together pretty quick. But FA is doable for sure...
I've gone through the AFC East from 2017-2019 already... the Bills have brought in the most AV at 220, New England is 180, New York is 152 and Miami is 82 over that span.
But when broken down by $/AV to basically show the value for that AV the Bills are 3rd in the division behind NE and Miami. It's really not a large margin at all, but we've actually handed our the 3rd most money in the NFL behind NYJ and JAX since 2017... the good news is it looks like we've gotten some good value. I'll keep digging.
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"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.
AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR
I was trying to check into this a little deeper and see if I could find a way to compare the Bills drafts since McDermott and Beane got to Buffalo. This isn't perfect, but I wanted something other than people just throwing their feelings around. I used Pro Football References Weighted Career Approximate Value... it's not perfect but they do say it's a fairly objective measurement to use to evaluate a draft class. I don't think it's as useful as WAR in the MLB is, I'm pretty familiar with WAR and this isn't really the same concept. The definition is below.
The career AV is computed by summing
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so onYou will also see DrAV, which is just the Weighted Career Approximate Value but solely for the team that drafted them... so we won't get credit for Wyatt Teller performing well in CLE because well... it's not helping the Bills.
I did one including 2017 which I will call McBeane and I did another one omitting 2017 which I will just call Beane. This should give us some separation between those who say that Beane didn't conduct the first draft, therefore he's not a good drafter, etc. Using 2019 may be a little premature but that's the case across the board for every team. I omitted 2020 because they don't have those draft values... this will be a fun exercise to conduct even further down the road when we have some more clarity on how Beane's picks pan out. But to give us an idea of what things look like right now in comparison to the rest of the NFL... Here we go..
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If you look at the McBeane drafts (2017-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see that the Bills have been a top 5 drafting team in the NFL since McBeane arrived. The Colts, Ravens, and 49ers are all ranked above us, with New Orleans right below. This lines up fairly well with what a lot of posters have said with those teams being very good drafters, but the Bills are right up there with them.
If you look at the Beane only drafts (2018-2019) sorted by DrAV you will see the Bills just outside of the top 5, tied at 6 with the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis and Baltimore stay strong at the top, as well as SF. CLE and NYG jump up above us, CLE is aided by their very strong 2018 where they got Mayfield, Ward and Chubb. Although we drop a little bit with just Beane, we're still in the top 6 in the NFL.
Obviously, OBVIOUSLY they need some more time with these picks. Some players will have better and longer careers and things will start to change, but overall right now it looks like McBeane has done a very solid job drafting since they've come to Buffalo. It looks like a few guys from 2020 should do well for themselves including Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass. Epenesa, Moss and Jackson have shown flashes. Not everyone is going to be a contributor... but so far under this regime the Bills have done well for themselves. I can't predict the future, but I can show you the past... and it shows the value we've gotten so far is in fact elite when compared to the other 31 teams.
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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Look........I never mentioned "the 22 number" and I never said only 5 of the signings were significant.
Star Lotulelei was signed for 5 years and $50M also..........and Kelvin Benjamin cost the Bills $8.5M in 2018 and he was utterly useless and dumped after 12 games.
Part of the context is that McBeane couldn't just pick any Carolina player off the Panthers roster or the rosters of Washington(Norman), New Orleans(Klein) or Dallas(Worley)..........the reason why the amount of ex McB Panthers has increased is because they had to wait for them to become expendable..........they have been on that Carolina waste product like white on rice.........it's only now that they can access a lot of them.
And it HASN'T been cheap.
That said............my point isn't to trash the signings..........I get it, they want players they are familiar with and you don't need playmakers at every position........but honestly the juice hasn't been worth the squeeze so nobody should be alarmed at the criticism.
"And of the 20 or so former Carolina free agents they've tried since coming to Buffalo only Daryl Williams and Dean Marlowe have proven worth the investment so far. "
You did say this, which sparked my initial post ^
"If they had actually gotten Olsen they could have easily been an opt-in(Lotulelei) and an injury(Norman) away from having 6 of THEIR former Panthers players in the same starting lineups for much of the season(Williams, Klein and Addison) and also had Butler and Marlowe playing 37% and 21% of the snaps............that's A LOT of playing time coming from players from one other team.........it's not a bunch of camp fodder as you'd like to present it."
Then you also pointed out who's playing significant snaps this season, while also throwing in some hypotheticals. Now I would say guys playing significant snaps like you laid out are significant signings, unless you have another definition? ^
Did they really wait for those players to become available? They didn't have any idea Norman would be released... they didn't jump all over signing AJ Klein in 2017 when he signed with the Saints? They released Marlowe once...I mean if Worley being signed to the practice squad isn't worth the squeeze then.. uh...
1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:Klein is the 32nd highest paid off-ball LB in the NFL.........for perspective, every team employs AT LEAST 2 starting off-ball LB's.
If you include all the 3-4 teams with big money edge rushing LB's........Von Miller, Khalil Mack etc............Klein is STILL the 45th highest paid LB in football.
So by any definition he is receiving excellent starting pay for his position.
Well then you need to factor in the true value of ALL starting off-ball LBs who are on rookie contracts, because their deals are below market value.
You can't combine a free market and the cost controlled draft amounts... it doesn't represent true value.
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5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:
Perhaps Diggs driving a comically small overpacked RV from minny to buf?8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:I can’t wait to see ours next week. A few years ago they had Tuhrod going over the falls in a barrel.
I hope it’s Josh in shorts, with a rocket arm, NFL sized hands, walking in the LaGuardia Airport with a shirt that says “Stats are for Losers”
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2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:
They traded for another that was supposed to be starter and was out of league a year later.
Benjamin, Star, Williams, Addison, Norman (5).
Butler, Marlowe and Klein weren’t signed to be starters. Klein I guess you can argue would technically be a starter even though we play with 2 LB WAY more often than not.
I would say Benjamin and Norman are clear busts.
Star and Butler have been ok, but leave a lot to be desired.
Marlowe has been good in limited action.Williams, Addison, and Klein (now that he’s adjusted to playing a new position without TC) have made a substantial impact.
Does someone want to point out who they would have acquired this off-season instead of those players?
Because prior to this season they brought in Benjamin and Star to be starters and the other ~14 were depth.
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11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
In stats.........22 and then a drop-off to a field of 17, 16, 15, 14.........is the definition of "inordinate".
30% more Panthers than the next closest team isn't a thing.
Mmmkay.
As for your last point..........again.........no perspective to make it relevant. Like how many of the "17 former Jets" were "competing with camp trash" etc..
Show your work if it matters to you.
In a league where the average player career is less than 3 seasons...........it's not "nothing" that 4 offseasons into their regime they signed 5 of their former Carolina players to play significant roles and tried to sign another in Greg Olsen.
If they had actually gotten Olsen they could have easily been an opt-in(Lotulelei) and an injury(Norman) away from having 6 of THEIR former Panthers players in the same starting lineups for much of the season(Williams, Klein and Addison) and also had Butler and Marlowe playing 37% and 21% of the snaps............that's A LOT of playing time coming from players from one other team.........it's not a bunch of camp fodder as you'd like to present it.
Dude, you keep contradicting yourself.
You’re pounding the 22 number as if it means something super significant. Then you come down and talk about how only 5 of those signings were actually significant. That’s literally the point I was trying to make initially.
You can’t pump up the 22 number when only 5 of them were ever supposed to be serious contributors. It’s not like they went out and signed 22 former Panthers and with the intention of them all being starters and only 2 of them have proven worthwhile. Until this season they had signed 1 Panthers that was expected to be a starter, in Star.
Your whole thing was that the Carolina pipeline hasn’t been fruitful because they signed 22 of them and only 2 have proven worthwhile. Well 2/5 is a lot different than 2/22...
I’ll concede my analysis has been poorly constructed, your feedback has been more than fair on it. It was an attempt at adding context and putting it together quickly.
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My new hope is that Jalen Hurts looks like a stud tonight and the Eagles cut Wentz.
Nobody wants Wentz as their starting QB and he backs up Josh for the next 15 years. Otherwise it’s gonna be Trubisky doing that.
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1 minute ago, Process said:
Where did you see this? Just curious because I can't find any updates on stills.
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Geez. I didn’t realize that we also have Dennis Hickey (former Dolphins GM) in the personnel department. We also have Alonzo Highsmith’s son as well...
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4 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:
That goes for front office execs as well as coaches?
• A team that loses a minority assistant coach who becomes a head coach or loses a personnel executive who becomes a general manager will receive third-round compensatory picks in each of the next two drafts.
• A team that loses two minority staffers to head coach and general manager positions would receive three third-round picks.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/6234064002
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Beane has assembled an outstanding front office. They didn’t even mention Brian Gaine who we brought back after Houston (Bill O’Brien) fired him as their GM.
Also, if Dawson, Boyd and Gray get GM jobs we get 3rd round compensatory picks in the next two drafts for each. I think it’s a stupid rule, but kudos to Beane for having a diverse front office BEFORE there was a reward for it.
EDIT: I don’t think hiring diversely is stupid, at all. I’m a huge advocate. I just don’t like the compensation attached... it seems to create the wrong atmosphere. I don’t have the solution though, at least the league is trying.
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I wonder how much the perception of McDermott changes if we overachieve in 2017 but DON’T make the playoffs. We finish 9-7 and just miss out... things are great because he took a rebuilding team and performed above expectations.
It seems many fans are hung up on the 0-2 in the playoffs... which I’ll concede is somewhat fair. What I’ll push back with, is the fact that that first season they were playing with house money. Being there exceeded expectations and they played a competitive game. A win would have been wonderful and nobody mailed it in, but a win surely wasn’t expected, the playoffs weren’t even really in play for many people that year.
Does the perception change if he’s only 0-1 in the playoffs going into this year? Or do folks just harp on the fact that he’s only been to the playoffs 1 time going into this year?
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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
So this article seems to contradict that point of view:
Shanahan: "Jimmy has won a lot of games for us this year. It's a lot harder to win games when he's not here. Just hoping we can get him back."
Lynch: "I think the elephant in the room, everyone wants to know about Jimmy," Lynch said on 104.5 FM KNBR Friday. "We're a better football team when he's out there. We win a lot of games when he's out there, we've struggled to win without him. "
https://ninernoise.com/2020/11/03/sf-49ers-steve-young-convinced-garoppolo/
It was this quote from Steve Young, but another writer tweaked it and made it sound like that was the belief inside of the 49ers building that Shanahan felt that way.
One of their beat guys said he finds it unlikely that they bring Garoppolo back next year based on performance, cap decrease and Shanahan’s ability to win with any QB.
Looks like maybe those were spliced together wherever I read that? Or I very well could be misremembering... if that is the case I apologize.
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Stills went unclaimed on Monday and is free to sign with anyone.
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Just now, Hampton Josh fan said:
Unfortunately, big dollar extensions need more than that, especially if you're competing for championships. 10 games and limited plays in some of those is his profile. No thank you. Move on from him.
He’s played 15 in 2 seasons. 13 in one. 5 this year.
This is the first year he’s missed significant time. 10 games isn’t even his average if he fails to play another game this season. His seasons ends without playing another game and he averages 12 games a season. He plays the next 5 and he averages 14 games a season.
This injury prone thing is a little strange. I’m not advocating a huge contract extension for him, but he’s also not injury prone. 10 games isn’t his profile because 1/4 seasons he played in 10 games due to injury...
Organizational Success Since 2017
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I appreciate the kind words!