Inigo Montoya
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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya
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Josh isn't going to win the MVP even if he balls out the last few weeks of the season and Mahomes and Rodgers stumble. The NFL hasn't decided to market Allen yet like they have Mahomes and Rodgers. You saw Manning and Brady become the face of the NFL for years. That wasn't an accident. Sure they were winning, but more that that, the marketing arm of the NFL decided to promote those two QBs across every market in the country.
The NFL has also done that with Pat Mahomes, Russell WIlson, and Aaron Rodgers at different times over the last decade. That kind of national marketing by the NFL is what puts someone over the top for this sort of stuff. It will be interesting to see if Allen joins those ranks next year. He seems to have a lot of things going for him. Choir boy looks and attitude. Nice background / upbringing story. He's starting to win a lot of games. He has a couple "wow plays" almost every week. There is also the feel good "long suffering Buffalo Bills franchise on the rise" story. There's a lot to work with there if you are a NFL marketing team.
Josh Allen may be about to take that next step and become one of the faces of the NFL next season. That's worth at least five points of MVP voting.
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My son is 22 and grew up watching the Bills lose year after year in every excruciating way possible. Just about every game this season he has turned to me at some point and marveled at how good the Bills look. It's like he can't believe his own eyes. It's a whole new world for him.
It is a good time to be a Bills' fan. Finally.
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The Steelers are pretty banged up. They will be playing their third game in 11 days when they play us Sunday night. They lost Dupree last week and Spillane this week so the middle of their defense might be a bit soft and it should also slow down their pass rush.
I think the Bills win by two scores.
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13 minutes ago, WideNine said:
This.
Also, I look at GB with its strong-armed QB and they play outdoors and I think it is an advantage, playing at Arrowhead does not seem to impede Mahomes putting up gaudy numbers...often when warm weather dome QBs and teams play in the elements they struggle so there is some home field advantages.
The only benefit is you can trick out a dome and host other events even in bad weather, a city is also able to try to host a Superbowl if you erect a dome that is attractive enough for such an event.
Obviously, there is a lot more to this and it starts going down the road of balancing investors with public investment, logistics, and how such an endeavor fits in an overall strategy of attracting businesses, favorable taxation policies, and revitalization efforts and those belong on another board.
It's not just the cold, it's the 25 mph winds swirling around the stadium from a different direction every five minutes that makes throwing the ball difficult. Lambeau and Arrowhead don't have Lake Erie 10 miles away. Bad weather games favor the defense and mitigate a strong offense. For years with the Bills identity being defense it played to our strength. Now that we have an elite offense these late season cold weather games will work against us. I don't want to play Tennessee in Buffalo when its 20 degrees outside with 20+ mph winds a month from now.
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22 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:
If Dabolls’ sincerity is to be believed, he ain’t goin’ nowhere. 23 years as a Coach in the AFCE and finally able to move back home where he can visit his grandparents while directing the thrilling Bills Offense is, IMO, his dream job. Don’t know/haven’t heard that he actually seeks to be a HC but I’d be surprised if so.
Part of me wishes Sean hadn’t promoted Frazier to AHC as Brian is more deserving and worthy of the ‘protection’ the title entails from wannabe poachers. If he does aspire to move away from WNY again and become a HC, then Best Wishes! I just don’t think he’d prefer it -e$pecially if the Bill$ $weeten the pot $ome..
I agree 100%. The Buffalo connection is the big thing here. He has a daughter who is a heck of a multi-sport athlete in high school at Nardin. That's where my mother went to high school back in the day. As a dad Daboll may be loathe to uproot her during highschool. Daboll is only 45 years old and has plenty of time to be a HC if he wants to. If he can help the Bills win a SB in the next few years he will have his pick of jobs at that point. Being from Buffalo he understands what a championship would mean to this town. Who wouldn't want to be a part of that? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pegulas get proactive and put more money in his pocket before the end of this season. They seem to understand the value of continuity in a franchise.
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Dion Dawkins catches a TD on a tackle eligible pass from McKenzie on a fake jet sweep.
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The heart and soul of Buffalo has always been our football team. For two decades we have been downtrodden as the Bills struggled to do anything positive. We watched the lowly Aints become a contender and win a Super Bowl. Even the Tampa Bay Bucs won a Super Bowl. We were humiliated by that team from Boston over and over again and the Bills became a punchline. Just like our city. A professional football team shouldn't be so important to the psyche of a city, but the bottom line is..... to Buffalo it is.
Josh Allen has given all of us hope that we might finally win a championship again. He means hope and a chance at redemption. It means we won't have to hear about losing four straight or wide right again. Just one championship would mean so much to this small city and its loyal fans. The fact that Josh Allen seems like such a genuinely good guy makes it all the more easy to jump on the bandwagon.
My father passed away last year. He was a life long Bills fan and raised his three boys to be the same. He never got to see his beloved Bills win it all. We laid him to rest in his favorite Buffalo Bills sweatshirt. I kept his Buffalo Bills belt buckle, and on the night when Josh Allen finally wins a Super Bowl for this city, I will be wearing it. When Josh Allen brings home the Lombardi Trophy to Buffalo he will exorcise fifty years worth of demons from this city. That is what Josh Allen means to this city and its fans, a chance at redemption. That's a lot to put on the back of a 24 year old and we all know it. It's also the reason that as long as he is our guy, and he is representing this city, and fighting hard for us, that we will always have his back.
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The 49ers are hobbled with injuries on both sides of the ball. Josh shows up to play under the bright lights. If not for the Zona Hail Mary, Josh and the Bills would be coming into town riding a five game win streak. The Bills' defense is going to be run blitzing and daring Mullins to make them pay with his arm. Mullins can't push the ball down the field. Listened to one of the San Fran beat reporters this week saying that the San Fran offense is essentially an "18 yard bubble" with Mullens under center because he doesn't have the arm strength anymore to effectively throw the ball down the field further than that. That will allow Poyer and Hyde to cheat up on the line to help in run support.
I think the Bills win by two scores.
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8 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:
"I came here to help him, help him develop his career, and we haven't been able to do that," said Gase, who is 7-20 and has presided over the NFL's worst offense for the better part of two seasons.
That’s too funny 😂
The bottom line is that whatever Gase's intention was, what is not debatable is that Gase has just gone in front of the media and said that Sam Darnold is a failed QB. Even if you agree with Gase that Darnold is a failed QB, the last person who should be putting that out there to the media is the QB's head coach two-thirds of the way through the season.
It would be like my wife going on tv and saying she feels personally responsible for the fact that her husband is fat. When I hear that statement, I'm not seeing her taking responsibility for making me cheeseburgers every night for dinner, what I see is my wife going on tv and telling the world that I'm fat.
What do you think the first question Darnold is going to get the next time he is in front of the media? They will ask Darnold why he thinks he failed. Is Gase the reason he failed? Was the lack of supporting cast the reason he failed? Is having multiple coordinators and offensive systems the reason he failed? Are Darnold's own shortcomings the reason he failed? Whatever answer Darnold gives is really meaningless because the underlying premise of all the questions is that Darnold is a failed QB. Why Darnold failed will be the subject of the week for the New York sports media. Won't this be a great week for Darnold....
No matter what Gase's intentions were with this statement, it has further damaged Sam Darnold and is just another example of why Gase just doesn't have the basic leadership / people skills to lead any organization.
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Listening to a podcast that included an interview with a beat reporter from San Fran last night who said the San Fran offense with Mullins at QB is essentially an 18 yard bubble. He just doesn't have the arm strength to push the ball down the field any further than that. My guess is we will probably stick with our nickel package which we use almost 75% of the time, but I would expect our safeties to be creeping up to the line at the snap to help contain on the edges where Mostert does most of his damage.
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I think Ken Dorsey should definitely be in the running if Daboll leaves but don't see that he has had any play calling experience (I looked at his Wikipedia page). He has been a QB coach twice, here and with Cam Newton in Carolina. There are probably going to be 6-8 head coaching changes this year and that means a lot of experienced candidates with OC and HC experience out there looking for a paycheck soon. There might be someone who would be a good OC for us who was just stuck in a bad situation.
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1 minute ago, YattaOkasan said:
Gonna disagree on the Jets being the best HC spot. I think the Chargers are the most desirable HC spot. They have talent and a QB already.
Fair point Yatta. I agree the Chargers will be a good coaching gig.
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I thought it might be interesting to look at a few areas that give an indication of where the Bills are as a franchise right now in comparison to the rest of the AFCE. The AFCE is a division in transition with all four teams undergoing significant change. Gone are the days of the Pats automatically winning the division and the rest of the teams scrambling for one Wild Card spot. How long the Bills can stay on top is affected by how each of these five areas play out over the next several seasons.
1. AFCE Quarterbacks; Right now the Bills have the only franchise QB in the division. When is that last time a Bills' fan could say that? We don't just have a franchise QB, I think it's fair to say that we have one of the best QB's in the NFL. The Phins are likely going to roll with Tua, the Jets will likely draft Lawrence, and the Pats are wandering in the wilderness right now. I don't think Cam will be back. I also don't expect Belichick to draft a QB high, I expect he will go shopping for a vet QB to plug into the team. Time will tell about Tua and Lawrence and we'll have to wait to see what Bill pulls out of his hat, but there is no arguing that the BIlls currently hold a huge advantage at the most important position in the game.
2. AFCE Cap Space; Beane has been great in managing the salary cap and has been making contracts based upon the anticipated salary cap next year at pre-COVID levels. That plan has been blown up and it is projected the cap will be $30+ million less next year than expected. Beane is going to have to let some key pieces of this roster walk. The current Spotrac projections for 2021 have the Bills sitting at $5mm of available cap space, Jets $82mm, Pats $69mm, Phins $36mm. The Bills have gone from having one of the best cap situations in the League to far and away the worst numbers in our division. The Phins, Jets, and Pats should be able to be a bit more active in free agency and have the potential to improve their roster while we will be scrambling to maintain what we have.
3. AFCE Draft Capital; The Bills will have a 1st round draft pick this year, probably in the high 20's (I'm hoping for pick #32). The Pats should be drafting in the mid-teens. The Jets and Phins have stocked up on draft capital. The Jets have two 1st rounders (likely the first overall pick) and the first pick in the 2nd round, #33. The Phins have two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks. During the first 33 picks in next year's draft, our AFCE opponents have six selections. That means on roughly one out of every five picks at the top of the draft we will have an ACFE foe on the clock. The Jets and Phins should be able to narrow the talent gap with the Bills this off season through the draft.
4. AFCE Rosters; Right now, from top to bottom, I think Beane has assembled the most talented roster in the division. As noted above, with cap space and draft capital the Jets and Phins should be able to close that gap some this off season. The Bills have the most talented offense and special teams units in the division. I don't think it's close. The Bills' defense is starting to get hot and regain its 2019 form, but as of right now, I think that the Dolphins' defense has the edge over the Bills, and the Pats' defense is frustratingly close. The Pats' defense should instantly get better next year just by getting their COVID opt-outs back. Hopefully Star's return will bolster the Bills defense and we are able to keep Milano. I'm worried more about the future of the BIlls' defense than I am about the Bills' offense or special teams.
5. AFCE Coaching; Belichick is the best coach in the AFCE. Sure he cheats, yeah he's a jerk, but the guy finds a way to win. He almost never makes a game management mistake and always puts his team in a position to win. They just beat the Cards. They had no business beating the Cards. Flores looks like a promising coach, time will tell with him. Adam Gase got hit in the head with a lawn dart when he was a kid and will be out of the NFL one second after the last play of the season. With Lawrence, draft capital, cap space, and a big market, I think the Jets' HC job will be the best job out there next year and they should be able to land a solid candidate. McDermott is the second best coach in the division and I think he is still getting better. The Bills are in good shape with McDermott extended through 2025. Losing Daboll this off season would hurt, hopefully that doesn't happen.
My take away... The Bills are clearly at the top of the heap in the AFCE. How long they can maintain that position is hard to say. The Bills have several key advantages, a real franchise QB, solid coaching, and a talented roster top to bottom. The question is can the Bills keep that roster together as the rest of the AFCE rushes to catch up with more resources. We are in a small window right now with Josh Allen on his rookie contract, the Jets just beginning a rebuild, and the Pats without a QB. I think the next couple seasons will be a throwback to when I was a kid and it was the Bills vs Dolphins every year for the division title. I trust Beane and McDermott to continue to work together to put a solid squad on the field, but COVID19 has clouded what should be a very bright future. I think the Bills win the AFCE this season and next season as the rest of the division improves but not enough to knock the Bills off the top spot. After that I think it's really up in the air. The AFCE should be a very competitive division for the foreseeable future. The days of the AFCE being the Pats and the also-rans is over.
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2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:
Can we give the game ball to the 00:00 on the clock at the end of the 4th?
It was an ugly game.
My son and I watch all the games together and he said something to me today that is spot on, he said watching the Bills play is always stressful and not a lot of fun. Even when they win they have to drag you through the mud first. He's right.
I would love for the Bills to blow someone out from start to finish just one time. No stress. No angst. No sense of dread.
Just one time....
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18 minutes ago, Mango said:
If I were an NFL owner I would need to see a lot more from Daboll at the moment. The offense is drastically improved this year, but just from a results stand point this is an anomaly in his career production. A second year showing the same consistency in passing attack and revamping the run game in the offseason, and I would be willing to pull the trigger.
Hey Mango!
Daboll is now, for better or worse, true or not, that most mythological of all offensive coaches, a "quarterback whisperer". He took Josh Allen who couldn't hit the ocean with a football while standing in a rowboat and brought him along to a near 70% completion rate QB. A team that is drafting a new QB who has some rough edges may look at what Daboll has done with Josh and think it's a wise move to bring him in.
In fairness, I think Daboll does deserves credit for some of Allens' development over the last three seasons but I'm of the opinion that Allen deserves the majority of the credit himself. He has spent big chunks of the off season paying out of pocket to work with his own QB coach, actually relocating to be close to Palmer during the off season. He has spent hundreds of hours studying defenses so he can be more mentally nimble on the field and has done every single thing he possibly could to get better at his craft. Daboll is not responsible for that competitiveness and that work ethic or that will to succeed. That is all inside of Josh.
Let's contrast Josh attitude with this little gem from Baker Mayfield at the end of last season. I don't think Daboll would be having the same amount of success if he was Baker's OC.
Having said that, I think Daboll has impressed a lot of people in the League with how he has helped Josh come along (deservedly so) and I would be shocked if he doesn't get a HC offer this off season.
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7 minutes ago, FireChans said:
BOB won their division 4 times in 6 full seasons. Had a winning record in 5/6. Won two playoff games.
McDermott has never won the division. Never won a playoff game. Winning record twice in 3 seasons.
If BOB is mediocre, what is Seany boy?
BOB wouldn't have won their division once in the last 6 years if he had the Patriots with Brady in it. It's a pointless comparison and an odd way to weasel in a gratuitous shot on McDermott, but you do you.
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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Was coming. Houston is the best job. Yea you are draft deficient in year 1 but you inherit a roster with a top 5 QB and only one other player who you are "stuck with" in Tunsil. It is a pretty blank sheet of paper. I'd try and re-sign Fuller if I could but beyond that you can build it up with your own guys.
This might be an unpopular position but I think the Jets' job is going to be the best one out there next year. Big market, Joe Douglas seems mostly competent, tons of draft picks including the 1st overall pick (more than likely), lots of cap space, and time to do a complete rebuild with no immediate pressure to win. If you step into Houston they will expect you to win immediately because you have Watson. The problem is that Houston has mortgaged their future trading away many of their high draft picks on dubious Bill O'Brien personnel moves.
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1 minute ago, Ponch said:
I have felt similarly for many years, and this explains all the flameouts 🔥 from his “tree”. I just never had the ability to express it as eloquently as you Inigo. I admit it. You are better than I am.
LOL! But I know something that you don't know... I am not left handed!
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I think the lack of success from the Belichick coaching tree, especially when compared to the Parcells and Andy Reid trees, is because when you are an assistant coach in New England, Bill micro-manages everything. Belichick doesn't develop coaches, he simply instructs them on how to do things his way. When his coaches finally get a head coaching gig and leave New England they suffer from that lack of personal growth and development. Most of these guys go off to another team and try to be Bill Belichick, like Matt Patricia is doing, and it just doesn't work.
The other thing these fledgling coaches don't have is the incredible good fortune to find a unicorn like Brady, a generational talent at QB who is also beta-male enough to tolerate the constant abuse of his head coach even after numerous championships and MVPs. What Belichick did in New England is not reproducible elsewhere and I think the rest of the League is finally starting to figure that out.
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My Thanksgiving prediction is that Tyler Bass breaks the NFL record for the longest field goal by season’s end.
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You guys are all just too ignorant to understand the offensive genius of Adam Gase!!! You only think the Jets are out of the playoff picture! Gase is now going to unleash hell on the the NFL and beat teams so badly that each victory will count for two and carry the New York Football Jets to a first round playoff bye and eventual Super Bowl Championship!!!
You fell victim to one of the two classic blunders, the most famous of which is, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less know is this, "Never go in against Adam Gase when death, or playoff football, is on the line!!!!"
Ha-Ha-Ha-ha-ha-ha-haaa.....
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8 hours ago, mjt328 said:
It is also a sport that evolves and changes over time.
Absolutely right mjt.
QBs like Murray and Lamar Jackson would have never lasted a full season playing in Jim Kelly's era and would have been killed outright on the field playing in Bradshaw's era. I can't imagine what Jack Ham or Mike Singletary would have done to those guys during or after one of their runs. The amount of punishment opposing defenses were allowed to put on a QB back then was nuts.
With the league putting rules in place to protect the QBs it allows a player like Murray to have a chance. I think Josh could have played 50 years ago and been successful. He has the frame and the stones for that kind of football. You know that guys like Steve Young and Bradshaw must shake their heads when they see what gets called Roughing the Passer in today's NFL.
Personally, I like it. I don't want to see players getting injured and I think today's NFL is a lot more exciting that it was 40 years ago. I do miss the crushing hits sometimes, but on the whole, I think the changes were needed and the game is a lot more fun to watch now.
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27 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:
The bills are ranked 20th in yards a game and 18th in points allowed per game. Still not good but your rankings are way off bro.
I think you looked at cumulative yardage and point rankings on the year without factoring in the fact we haven’t had a bye week. Simply put, if you go to ESPN to do something like that click on the yards per game tab or ppg tab and it will give you a more accurate ranking since we haven’t had byes all play out yet.
Here is where I got my stats Stank: https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-team-summary-stats?category=defense&sort=def_pts_a&season=2020&seasonType=reg&sortOrder=asc
I did have the wrong numbers and I adjusted the original post to put the right numbers there, but your numbers and mine are still off a bit, not sure how to square that. In any event, thanks for the heads up.
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We have all seen the big step backwards the Bills' defense has taken this year. I have listed the key stats comparing last year's dominant squad vs this year's below average group. I'm just not sure what can account for such a huge drop off. It would be one thing if we had new coaches and schemes. We brought back most of the unit. I've read a lot of conjecture here about the "Star Effect" and the ripples created in this defense when you don't have an immovable object clogging up the middle of the defensive line, but I don't know that you can reasonably put all of this drop off on Star opting out.
In addition to Star, I think it is becoming very obvious how fortunate we were last year to have so few injuries on our team and it seems like this year we are falling back to the norm. In 2019 the Bills were 11th best in the league with 64 AGL (Adjusted Games Lost). The NFL average was 75.8. AGL is a metric created by Football Outsiders to measure the impact of players lost and guys playing injured throughout the season. They don't have numbers for this season yet, but I'm certain we won't be in the top half of the League again this season.
Here are the Team Defense stats to compare...
2019
Points per game: 16.1
Points per game League rank: #2
Yards per game: 298
Yards per game League rank: #3
Rushing yards per game: 103
Average yards per rush attempt: 4.3
Passing yards per game: 195
2020
Points per game: 26.5
Points per game League rank: #21st
Yards per game: 373
Yards per game League rank: #20th
Rushing yards per game: 135
Average yards per rush attempt: 4.8
Passing yards per game: 238.7
Falling from 2nd in the League in points allowed in 2019, to 21st in 2020 is horrific. Last year we had a bend but don't break defense. This year we are bending and breaking. The consensus during this off-season was that the Bills would go as far as Josh Allen would take them based on the idea that we would return the same stout defense, and if we could just manage to score more than 19 points a game (the 2019 average), we would win more games.
After 10 games played it is still the consensus that the Bills will go as far as Josh Allen can take them, but now it is because Josh needs to score enough points to make up for our poor defense, and so far he has. Barely... The offense is averaging 27.2 points per game this year, and the defense is giving up an average of 26.5 points a game. You can see how this team is living on the razor's edge week to week. Fixing the running game should be a big focus during this bye week, but figuring out what the hell is going on with the defense should be a close second.
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Josh Allen named AFC Offensive Player of the Week
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Stefanski has turned Baker into a game manager. Don't turn the ball over. Turn around, hand the ball off to Chubb and Hunt 40+ times a game and win. And winning they are.
Contrast that with the Bills and Josh Allen. The coaching staff here puts the ball in Allen's hands almost every week and says "Go out there and win this game for us kid." It's a big difference. Can Baker have a game like he did last week now and then? Of course. He'll have one or two games a season like that. Josh on the other hand needs to have a game like that every week for the Bills to win. And winning they are.