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Rew

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Posts posted by Rew

  1. 4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

    They said on the radio he's had multiple concussions this year so it will take longer than usual

    There is nothing definitive about a single or multiple concussions.  Each one is different and follows the same protocol.  The average time to clear protocol for multiple in the same season is longer, but there is nothing in the rules that prevents him from coming back quickly if he clears all the steps.

     

    He could clear it in 5 days, or this could be his worst ever and not clear for a month.

     

    Key is to watch for cleared for non contact by Friday.

  2. He really doesn't seem to match the physicality of the rest of the defense.  He looks like he's on skates every time someone is running at him with the ball.  He might have been an nfl starter 5 years ago, but with the way the run game seems to be surging back he is a liability.

     

    His coverage, as always, is not bad and he makes good plays on the ball.

     

    It's like to see him hit the gym in the off-season and come back with another 10 lbs of muscle.  Otherwise, he'll never be a starter for the Bills.

    • Like (+1) 1
  3. Just now, Shaw66 said:

    Right.  Romo was right.  Up by 21, keep the clock running by running on second down. Force Steelers to use time outs.  

     

    And you're right about the field goal.  No need for it there.  

     

    McDermott really does have clock issues. 

    With the way the defense has been playing I think McD was counting on getting the ball back before half.  A bit greedy, but we wanted to score with 2:30 left and leave enough time for us to score again.

  4. 7 hours ago, Mango said:

     

     

    This is all fine until you lean into the bolded. 

    Von really was not any more impactful on Sunday than he was 4-6 weeks ago. There would be next to zero noise about Miller if he has any linear progression. Hell forget linear....just any notable improvement in production. 

    At best Von was meh on Sunday...which is the exact same summary of his game ion October, and then again in November, and then again in December.....and then again in January. 

     

    Maybe Von comes back improved for 2024, but right now he isn't getting better and he isn't progressing. Full stop. 

    My comment wasn't to suggest that he should be dressing or playing X number of snaps right now.  Purely a response to "he's toast, shot, done, he's insert more derogatory term here".  He's going to be more physically ready next year than he is now.  There's no way to know if he'll ever be back at the same level, but also no reason to think Aaron Maybin is his new ceiling.

     

    Right now he shouldn't be taking meaningful time from someone that the coaches currently grade better at doing what they are asked to do.

  5. 1 hour ago, PetermansRedemption said:

    Doesn’t mean we should judge his current play on what he was. It’s perfectly reasonable to believe he’s toast at this point.

    It's equally reasonable to believe that he is still recovering and will look better every week and certainly be better next year than he is now.  Given his age and injury, it's reasonable to wonder what dropoff he'll eventually have, but pretending that his current condition is his forever condition starts to seem unreasonable.

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  6. The entire premise of this post is off.  Our options are either:

     

    A) Play the chiefs (with CLE/HOU going to Baltimore)

     

    B) Play CLE/HOU (with MIA going to BAL)

     

    I think the easiest round 2 game for us is Hou (MIA win), but by far the best chance of Superbowl is KC win.  Give CLE (hopefully) a shot at taking out Bal.

     

    The only way we play Miami again is if they beat both KC and BAL on the road.  It doesn't look likely to happen.

    • Awesome! (+1) 1
  7. Just now, Process said:

    The scoreboard won't show it, and it sure as hell didn't feel like, but that game was another complete domination of the dolphins. We should have won by 30 points if it weren't for a complete ********* of a first half where we did everything possible to beat ourselves.

     

    What a rollercoaster this season has been.

     

    Somehow, someway we are the 2 seed. Go bills.

    People are somehow missing how dominating we were on O and D all game.  We thrashed them in yards, first downs, 3rd down conv, top, and pretty much every stat ever made.  Sloppy, which needs to stop, but a strong performance overall.

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Agree 2
  8. 3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

    it's early but Miami looks too fast and explosive. Doesn't look like a Bills night. 

     

    Really starting to wonder how good this Bills team really is. We are gonna found out. Glad the Titans won! 

    Bills are driving down the field easily and already have 2 defensive stops.  How is this your takeaway?  They look just as fast and good.  They won't win if they turn it over, but what game are you watching?

    • Agree 1
  9. Just now, FireChans said:

    Oh come on bro lol

    Davis clearly never recognized the need for hot route.  He never even turned around to see how he could help his quarterback.  Josh probably shouldn't have thrown off his back foot, but he expected Davis to do something different than what he did.

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Disagree 1
  10. 56 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

    Agreed, I was treating them as independent events.  But I think you'd need a strong basis to assume that they can't be approximately treated as independent.  That is, how does the very recent game specifically impact the next game?  

    With the premise of gameplan and winning individual matchups having influence on outcomes of games, I would postulate that both are different when preparing to play a team twice. 

     

    For starters, you may be more likely to hold back on the first game "to not show all your cards".  Secondly, the prep for the second game makes you not want to use the same plan.  Additionally, the prep for the 2nd game is done with actual tape of the other team against your guys, as opposed to watching them play against other teams/systems.  Essentially, decision making in prep and in game is different in both game one and game 2.  The result of all of this seems like coaching would have more opportunity to overcome talent differences.

     

    The second factor is the player factor.  Whether it's your overall emotions going into a game, the feelings you have for the guy across the line, or your ability to adapt to what you went against a week ago.  Even the thought of "they're a good team, how can we beat them twice in a row" would have the potential to impact individual performances.

     

    All of these factors could contribute to changes in the probability of winning each game vs an isolated game in a vacuum.  I have no clue how much or even which direction the impact would go. 

     

    I'm with you overall on gamblers fallacy being prevalent in most people's understanding of chance.  I wish I had enough data to analyze, but some of the fun of watching the games is that it's not all based on chance. If I had to guess, I would postulate that both the first and second games of a known or probable back to back situation move closer to 50/50 than the vacuum odds of the two teams.

    • Awesome! (+1) 1
  11. 2 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

    This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin.  That's not true.  It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. 

     

    So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win).  But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game.  No reason for the odds to change.  We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

    That's true for independent events.  However, playing the same team twice (especially back to back) are not independent events.  Play calling, gameplan, player familiarity, on field drama all play into a rematch.  You can argue the extent of the real world factors, but you can't simply treat them as dice rolls.

    • Agree 1
  12. 4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

    I wonder if it’s a literal tell or just tua staring down routes and not really going through progressions/not using the sideline much unless it’s a deep ball 

    The queen video seemed to imply it was an actual tell. 

     

    Really got some perspective for game plans for me.  The idea of some coaching aide hitting rewind/play/rewind/play on the same players all week looking for how much weight they put on their knuckles is crazy.  It helps understand why upsets can happen that seem incomprehensible to fans.

    • Like (+1) 1
  13. Probably one of the better links I've found on an opponents forum:

     

     

    They made a really good point that the Bills defense earlier this season already seemed to know what was going on.  Really interesting to see if we can reproduce our earlier defensive effort (and Baltimore's).  

     

    Edit: to be clear, the guy talking in the video turns 10 minutes into 70.  But the first 10-15 had good knowledge in it

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