Rew
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Posts posted by Rew
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7 minutes ago, Success said:
Of course, I noticed the "was" more than anything....
He's no longer on the team. Using past tense to describe a time period of two plus years ago seems appropriate, and reading anything more into it feels like reaching.
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Been saying this since the season ended. If Von wants to play, he'll be on the team.
We can have him play this year for no additional cap hit with a big performance slider that we probably pay under 10M net. He was absolutely good enough to be a strong rotational pass rusher with upside. I have no problem with him being here as long as the comp matches performance.
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4 hours ago, GreenMtnBillsFan said:
To be honest, I don't think Beane seems to place a lot of value into the Backup QB's. I wouldn't mind a Minshew or backup of higher quality, but it always seems like they'd rather use that money or draft capital elsewhere rather than a higher rated backup or developmental QB in the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep Mike White and cut Trubisky after 6/1.
I see it a bit different. I think Beane/McD highly value QB2. However, they seem to prioritize the traits that QB2 can provide week in/week out instead of a "break in case of emergency guy". Film room, locker room presence, being "there" for Josh. I think they value all of these things and place the ability of someone to support Josh and the offense over getting someone to replace Josh.
Whether Mitch is this guy next y at or they find someone different I believe they are still looking for a support role and not replacement role.
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Initially was like WTF. After a bit of thought, this should actually work out. I felt the 30 was too far. Some teams agreed. Far more balls were kicked into a returnable location than prior years. Kickoff return rate increased 50%, from 22%->33%. However, many teams still stuck with touchbacks at a 85%+ rate. Moving it to the 35 should significantly reduce touchbacks.
This is an attempt to get closer to "the way it used to be", while still working to preserve player safety. I'm not sure what the NFL's goal is, but I'm assuming they are working to get kickoff return rates up, then will tweak return rules based on average starting position after teams have a couple of seasons to show how the play is working out.
Here is a pretty clear comparison that shows what they are trying to address with the kickoff changes.
2003 touchback%:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/kickoff-touchback-pct?date=2004-02-02
2023 touchback%:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/kickoff-touchback-pct?date=2024-02-12
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People that complain about dead money endlessly or make comments like "we're paying him and he's not on the team!" (Under many l, but not all scenarios) don't really understand the cap at all.
I'll try to explain the basic concept in a way that gets to the universal driver. In a cap inflationary environment, you are counting on the cap being bigger next year and the year after than it is today. Under this scenario, you can take advantage of accounting rules to pay your players today, but not take the cap hit for 2 years. If every other team is paying their players $250M (in cash), you can pay them $290M (in cash). This comes with downsides and risks, and does not provide any advantage when cap is not changing dramatically year to year. However, between NFLPA negotiations and overall revenue growth of the NFL the salary cap has increased 50% over the last 7 seasons. Using the the techniques of cap deferal in this environment allows teams to consistently pay their players 10-20% more than pure "cash to cap".
One downside of this is that you end up with more long term contracts instead of short term contracts. This can be good. If every player plays our their contracts you end up paying below market rates on an average basis. However, players don't end up playing out their long deferred contracts, so you actually don't end up paying less than market rates, so there is a few% inefficiency penalty for doing this. Also these longer term structures end up increasing your "committed cap", meaning that a team taking advantage of the cap this way is not as flexible in roster moves as a team not doing this. If every move you make us the right one, this isn't a downside.
Another big downside (and maybe the biggest factor impacting some teams) is that you still have to pay the cash, even if you are defering the cap hit. Sometimes this cash goes to the player and sometimes it goes into escrow, but you can't take advantage of cap deferal if you don't have an owner able to keep $100's of millions tied up.
There is a 5 year limit on deferal, so with items like a signing bonus scheduled over 5 years means a maximum of 2 year deferal (on average). It's challenging to come to terms with a player with all $ being deferred, so their is a practical cap of how much you can take advantage of this.
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In before "we are the chiefs Superbowl"
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There is no way he is playing for us under his current contact. However, this was a 6 year cap schedule. With dead cap hit from '26 and '27 I think we could keep him cap neutral in '25. I give better than 50/50 chance that he restructures to something like "up to 16M", with a 6-7M base and incentives that get him to 10-12M if he gets 10 sacks.
It all comes down to how much Von wants to play. If he wants to come back I think we give him the shot to continue being a rotational veteran.
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This was as actually my stance at our annual family football debate (hosting the holidays). I can't put Mahomes at the top of my list. I can put him among the best, but he is not the best. Kelce on the other hand is the best.
The chiefs 'dynasty" is a factor of Reid/Kelce more than it is Mahomes. Kelce is a complete TE, and sees coverage better than pretty much anyone. As soon as Kelce is gone, the dynasty is over. The chiefs will still be a very good and very competitive team, but the "unbeatable" factor is more about how clutch Kelce is.
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Agree with the few voices of sanity here. There was nothing more conservative about our second half gameplan (compared to first half), and the idea we came out running repeatedly is blatantly false. People need to go rewatch the 2nd half, or look at some drive logs and take notes. I think many people are as guilty of making up a narrative as the media.
We passed 7 out of our first 9 plays. This small dataset represents most of the 3rd quarter, half of our 2nd half drives, and had zero repeat runs. We didn't execute. We picked up 1 first down on 3 sets of downs with a couple of drops, slightly misplaced balls, and good defensive plays.
By the time we got to our 3rd drive it had closed to 21-19 with 1 quarter left to play. The smart drive here is to eat up 6-8 minutes and score a touchdown. We executed a 4:30 drive that got us to field goal range. This consisted of 4 passes and 5 runs. The runs were (11,-1,4,7,2). There were no back to back runs in the same set of downs. Likewise there were no Run-Run-Pass sets. The set of downs that we stalled on consisted of 2 consecutive missed passes. While we ended up stalling in the passing game, this drive was on track to be exactly what was needed at that point. We were moving he ball and eating up clock. While it didn't look easy, we could only blame ourselves for missing plays that were there. The play calling was not holding us back.
4th drive... We get the ball with 8:40 left, up by 5 near mid field. It's hard to kill 8 minutes on a 54 yard drive, so we start out just trying to move the ball with our normal offense. Pass for 12, Run for 8, pass for 5, pass for 8, pass for 1.
We are now at 15 passes, 8 runs in the 2nd half. We have come out pass heavy for 1.5 quarters and are averaging 4YPC on the ground with 3.86 yards per play in pass game. This was our standard 2nd half attack that looked sluggish because we were playing a good defense and were not executing at our best for those 1.5 quarters.
I think this point is when the strategy actually changed and some debate could actually make sense. We are now at the Bal 21 with 6 minutes left. McD does the math and says to Brady "we have to score here. I want you to punch it in, but even if we don't let's see if we can burn some clock and get an easy FG.". We manage to burn another 2.5 minutes and two Baltimore timeouts. Runs of 8,2,3,5,0. The call on 3rd from the 2 was a Josh option. We had our 2 minute drill touchdown of first half on a similar/same play and multiple first down pickups on a similar call. This was not a conservative call, it was our best call to punch it in. We just "went to the well" too many times.
At the conclusion of meaningful play calling, we ended with 15 passes and 13 runs, including the 5 consecutive runs to kill time at the end. Like I said, I don't agree with many of the takes and dialogue surrounding the 2nd half. I saw the exact opposite of a conservative shell. People are confusing the results with what was called.
I hated the results. I wish we had executed better or had called something different that was executed better. But just because what they called didn't work out doesn't give us justification to blame it on Brady or McD. Call out Josh, Knox, shakir, Kincaid. Every one of them missed a key 1st down in the 2nd half. Or just realize you can get an unfortunate streak of 2 drives that just don't work because you are playing a good team.
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I think Brown always showed he had the potential to be something special. He showed it even in his rookie year. However, guys with his height and build have a tendency to have back issues linger (and potentially never recover). From people who are uninformed on his medical status (all of us) I think it was quite reasonable to be sceptical of his long term availability. When they gave the contract to him, they did it with full awareness of his medical situation. I felt pretty good at that point.
While it is possible that he has a shortened career or availability concerns at some point in the future, I don't think any of us have a reason to doubt him. From all available evidence he is "good to go".
This season he has absolutely played to the level that we only hoped for and absolutely is outplaying his contract.
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Agreed that this comes across poorly.
Doing this for someone who did the right thing that helped us (Bengals getting us the wildcard) is positive messaging. Doing this bc someone made possibly the biggest mistake of their career against us is just rude (to put it politely).
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Agreed, not understanding the love for a sneak. It's not a gimme from that distance and they had like 13 in the box. If you know you are kicking on 4th, you make a play to try for it. Wish they did something off the edge or rolled Josh out, but glad they made a call to try and get it in. Also glad they made the right call on 4th.
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Third down play would likely have failed with push. Ravens were all in to stop it. Play should have gone outside.
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1 minute ago, stuvian said:
Only one penalty on us. That's disciplined football
It wasn't even a penalty either
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I wouldn't ever bet against the bills to win, but I would bet ATS if I felt the game was going to be closer than the spread indicates.
Does that count as betting against them?
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4 hours ago, zow2 said:
There is no way in hell that our Bills are losing a 3rd consecutive Divisional playoff game in Orchard Park in OUR weather and in front of OUR great fans. Not this team, with this QB. No way. I'm willing this to happen and putting it in writing.
January 19, 2025 Baltimore at Buffalo??????
January 21, 2024 Kansas City 27 at Buffalo 24
January 22, 2023 Cincinnati 27 at Buffalo 10
I'll play. The trend indicates that the score should be Baltimore 27 at Buffalo 38
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50 minutes ago, peterpan said:
So I never understand this. Why does the NFL allow a third party group of sportscasters and journalists decide who is the NFL MVP and NFL All Pro(s)?? Wouldn’t the NFL want to control that list?
I feel like each teams GM and/or Head Coach should get the votes, with a rule that you can’t vote for anyone on your own team.
this reminds me of how they used to award the college football “National Champion “. Two polls- and coaches poll and the journalists poll. Uhh which group do you think knew more about the best football team? The football coaches or the nerds in the press box?
at least these days, it seems like more and more former players have votes.
It's not a league award. It is literally the Associated Press's list of awards that they made up and award how they see fit. The NFL has neither the ability, or desire to stop outside parties from discussing and driving traffic to the NFL. There are other MVP awards given, like PFWA, PFF, yahoo, and other media orgs.
The only thing that makes the AP unique is that the NFL decided over the last decade to host the "NFL Honors" as an additional league event where 20ish awards (most or all from 3rd parties) are announced and the AP was given the honor of presenting a series of their awards. I suppose you could consider these "sanctioned" by the NFL. The AP (and other media) has a bunch of awards that they give outside of NFL honors (like All Pro).
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Hollins had me rofl with that spin
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Even Lamar could have made that throw!
(am I doing it right?)
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Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
What would be the basis to overturn it?
If his toe tapped down before he had possession.
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20 minutes ago, RiotAct said:
any significant injuries sustained by the Ravens last night?
Lamar looked to have something going on with lower back. He might be fine, or it may tense up after the game and impact him for a couple weeks.
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I think the steelers are a really good pick against the spread, this is likely to be a close game. I think Steelers win this straight up at least 4/10 times for all the reasons others have mentioned.
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On 1/2/2025 at 4:30 PM, FireChans said:
I know I know, we don't have Andy Reid or Chris Jones or Travis Kelce.
But let's look at the similarities:
Major questions surrounding QB after trading away their best WR.
QB then plays at an MVP level, and arguably the best blend of big play and smart play of their career with a less than star studded supporting cast
Questionable defenses
Let's look at:
Mahomes' 2022 top 6 pass catchers
Kelce
Juju
MVS
MckinnonWatson
Gray
Josh's 2024 top 6 pass catchers
Shakir
Coleman
Kincaid
Hollins
Knox
Cooper
Not too much difference there, outside of Kelce.
Now let's compare their numbers and the offenses numbers:
2022 Mahomes
5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record
2024 Allen
4262 total yards, 41 TD's, 6 INT's, 5 fumbles, 101.4 passer rating, 76.7 QBR 13-3 record
Obviously yardage is the starkest difference, but the 2024 Bills were much run heavier, with Mahomes passing 165 more times. And they did have Kelce as well, as above.
Now let's look at their offenses:
2024 Bills offense
31.8 PPG (2nd in NFL)
5846 yards (9th in NFL)
2022 Chiefs offense
29.2 PPG (1st in NFL)
7032 yards (1st in NFL)
This Bills offense, with worse talent IMO put up more points than that SB winning, MVP having team. Yardage again the biggest difference.
And now finally, let's look at the defense. There is a lot said about the style of play the Chiefs have now, but their 2022 defense was most certainly not elite.
2022 Chiefs
16th in points
11th in yards
11th in yards per drive
21st in points per drive
2024 Bills
11th in points
20th in yards
26th in yards per drive
16th in points per drive
So there you have it. Both teams had offseason departures in talent and honestly questionable regular season defenses, but with their QB's playing at an MVP level, the best year in their careers, they managed to post one of the best records in the conference.
Now its time to see if history can repeat itself and Allen can continue his flawless play into the postseason, and the defense can step up when it needs to.
You're not the only one to connect these dots. The similarities extend into how prior seasons played out, how the off-season played out, expectations coming into the year, having a middling defense on regular season, and more.
Obviously the Chiefs capped it off by the Defense stepping up in playoffs and ended as champs. Hopefully the similarities continue .
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I don't think it is a given that he is gone next year. Clearly he isn't going to be playing under a $17M base salary. A similar, incentive laden restructure bringing his base down with incentives to get over $10M wouldn't be a bad deal for us or him. If cut, with dead cap and bonuses yet to be paid he would account for >$20M cap next year (>$10M post June 1st with only $100k workout bonus cost). We could get him at a $15-$18M cap hit in '25 with <$10M dead in '26.
I'm not pounding the table for him, but if he still wants to play I think we would go for it. Assuming he wasn't suspended and played 17 games he would have hit 8+ sacks this year on a part time schedule.
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Malaki Starks wants to pick off Josh Allen most
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I agree with you in the macro sense. But you have to have interacted with enough people to realize that motivation, while it doesn't change talent, can certainly impact the observed performance of talent.
Bulletin board material doesn't make a player better, but it definitely can help them show up and play their best. People have off days, with less energy or a "I'm not feeling it today". My life experience says that people use different coping techniques to find motivation to attempt to be at their best. Enough athletes talk about getting motivation from perceived slights for it to be a real factor in their thinking.
On this specific topic, I doubt Starks' comments are really going to have any bearing on Josh. He seems to have his motivation pretty figured out and this won't really impact the chip on his shoulder.