Dkollidas
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Posts posted by Dkollidas
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26 minutes ago, dneveu said:
Someone made a point elsewhere - but if the cap hits 175 - a lot of those guys will restructure. Why? Because there is a capped amount of cap space remaining and several of these guys are north of 30.
You can take john browns 9m hit, and position most of the base salary into bonuses in 2022, and guarantee another base salary in 2022. So 1 year 9M cap hit becomes like 3.7 on year 1 and like a guaranteed 6-8M in 2022. 1 year 9M becomes 2yr 12M with a 3M cap hit in 2021. Normally the player can say "i'll hit the market" but this market has fewer teams spending, and fewer jobs available. If you lose the musical chairs game your 2 years fully guaranteed 12 could be 1 year 2 million. The players have a ton of risk in free agency this year.
Same goes for the dlinemen. Addison and butler are likely to get less money than they did a year ago in a lower cap market. If Buffalo needs space on the butler deal, he extends a 3rd year and gets a 2020 market rate add-on to 2022.
And it could be even less bc Brown could be cut outright and only walk away with about $1M. And if the cap is as low as is predicted, what’s a 31yr old banged up small wideout gonna get, 1yr $4M? And how much is really guaranteed? So I could see him doing a 2yr deal here where he gets maybe $4M in 2021, with about $3M of it guaranteed, and then maybe $6M in 2022 with maybe $1M-$2M guaranteed and another $1M in roster bonus.
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Mario would be helpful.
Lynch would be interesting as well. He could be a big hammer to swing at teams come playoff time.
But Mario wouldn’t fit on this team IMO in terms of personality. So I’ll go with Lynch.
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My question for those who pay more attention to the NCAA is this:
Can UB, with Leopoldo at the helm, but in the MAC, become a consistent top-25 to top-30 team?
If that’s possible, Could it become a program that could then possibly get into the Big East or ACC or something like that.
Women’s Basketball is a great program.Men’s basketball is also becoming a great program.
If the football program can do the same, shouldn’t they get power 5 consideration?
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28 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
You're not cutting Murphy, Norman and Milano! Those three are all upcoming free agents so they don't count. You only save money by cutting players under contract for next season.
The Bills projected payroll next season for the 40 players under contract is about $170 Mil leaving them to be about $4.8 Mil under the cap of $175 Mil, Rumor has it the cap may end up going up to $190 Mil so that would leave them about $20 Mil under. Out of that 20 mil they need to save about $5 Mil for draft picks and ideally save another $3 to $5 Mil for replacement players signing due to injures etc.
There was around 18 to 20 upcoming FA on the Bills roster 16 of which are players that gave a meaningful contribution to this years team so need to replace with equal quality. As I stated they only have 40 players under contract, considering that this team is getting pretty deep and stronger, lets assume 6 draft picks make next years roster, that means they still need to sign around10 players just so that they would end up with 53 players on opening day. And they have about $10 maybe $12 Mil to sign those ten with. So how you going to do that without making some big cuts, but again to save money you can only cut players who are actually under contract for next year.
Butler would save you think it was around $7 mil so agree with that one, Addison would get you another $6 Mil, Morse is worth around a $5 Mil saving, Smith is only going to save you about $2 Mil so not sure if he's worth cutting as you'd likely want to replace him with another blocking TE. Kroft is also a FA BTW so the only TE you'd have left on the roster would be Knox, Gilliam, and Sweeney if you cut Smith too.
Both Norman and Wallace are FA's so there goes both your #2 CB. At least Wallace is a restricted FA so can resign him on the cheap. Bojo is also a FA, again restricted so can resign cheap. McKenzie, T Jones, Barkley, and Roberts are also upcoming FA's too. There are only 4 O-lineman under contract next year, Dawkins, Bates, Ford, and Morse, but if they cut him to save the money, then only three left signed. And BTW if they do cut those 4 players I mention instead of having ten open roster spots, they now have 14 to fill, admittedly gained around $20 mil more they can spend. Two slots will be filled by Star and Gaines if he can stay healthy.
Does Davis have the wherewithal of Brown at this point, no, but he's a rookie, he can learn. Would I like to see them keep Brown yes, but just can't see how they could do that and still be able to sign Feliciano, Williams, and Milano. Of the three I'd rate Milano the lowest so if I had to lose one, maybe it's him. If they can get Brown down to about $4 Mil then he's worth keeping. But if I had to decide between signing those 3 or keeping Brown, I'd let Brown go. And even if they signed all three of them with the $20 mil, you still have another ten or so roster spots to fill the names of the upcoming free agents I mentioned above.
I don't think they are in dire shape, but will require a couple of cuts or major restructures of players you don't wish to see leave to maintain or improve the roster. And many here will be very upset to hear some of the names that may be gone.
Players Under Contract
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2021/
Free Agents
There’s a lot more you can do than just cutting players. Restructuring Diggs’ contract, extending Hughed, Brown, & Hyde will all save money as well. Then offer reduced salaries to Butler & Matakevich, if they don’t accept greatly reduced deals... cut em. And cut Lee Smith.
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
Is that with keeping Butler? Initially, I thought he was a goner for sure. Now, I dunno if letting him go is a good idea. He and Ed have been playing very well next to each other the last few games. I guess we’d just replace him with star and save the cap space, but I think he’ll be missed. We’ll see how he plays down the stretch
That’s with cutting him. But with Star coming back, they’ll have Oliver, Star, Butler, Phillips, Jefferson and Zimmer back next year. They’ll need to drop one for sure, and a 2nd might be relegated to practice squad. Butlers been decent but he’s an easy contract to get out of. They either cut him or convince him to lower his cap hit (similar to Kroft and DiMarco prior to this season).
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I’ve listened to a lot of Greg Tompset on Cover 1 and using Over The Cap to look at our 2021 situation.
I think we should walk into 2021 with about $5M in initial cap space. But with doing some things that do NOT include cutting John Brown or even a Mario Addison, we should be able to clear about $30M on top of that.
So with $35M we should be able to sign a draft class, and fill the bottom of the roster, and still have roughly $25M or so (I believe vets like Andre Roberts, Kroft etc will be back on 1yr veteran minimum deals). With that cap space we will definitely be able to get 2/3 of Milano Feliciano & Williams. Possibly 3/3 but it would likely involve some backloading of contracts, and even then I could see a team like the Jaguars, Jets, Redskins or Bengals willing to throw $13M at him (JuWuan James type deal). These are all teams with big O-Line needs and large amounts of cap space.
Lastly, I do wonder if Beane would consider transition tagging him and trading him. But I really don’t think they’d do anything like that, if he signs for enough they’ll get a comp pick out of it anyways.
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10 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:
MAJ, I'm with you here except I'd go LB, CB, TE. Zaven Collins next to Edmunds will probably have the two biggest, fastest LBs in the NFL. Levi is adequate but could use an upgrade. Kenny Yeboah or Charlie Kolar in the 3rd. Edge is a need too. Chris Rumph is a sleeper.
Bosa was killing Dawkins too. Wouldn't releasing Morse help cap? Use Morse money on Williams
Then who plays center? Feliciano? Then you need a guard too? And if you start Ford coming off injury and Boettger who isn’t very proven, where’s your depth?
Also, I think left tackle is important because of the blindside aspect.
But I think with the amount of teams trying to run pressure through the middle, guard is an underrated position. -
I know Williams played well against Watt. But he also got burned pretty well by Bosa. So it’s not like he’s perfect. I just wonder if he’s going to be looking for the biggest deal he can get. Played a rookie contract, then got a 1yr $6M from Carolina and a 1yr $2.5M deal from us... I could see him getting $13M+ on the market. I think Beane has shown a talent for finding linemen (he put this entire line together minus the fact he didn’t draft Dawkins). I think he could replace Williams if needed. And adding a rookie to the group would help with the cap spent on the O-Line.
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Big 3 are Milano, Feliciano, and Williams. I believe that’s how the organization would prioritize their re-signings.
Tackles are usually valued higher than guards or linebackers but...
1) our defense is linebacker driven, and we only usually play two, which means they need to be good.
2) Beane has been able to find a lot of offensive line talent, and it’s been coached up well by Bobby Johnson. But the run game only really started to get going once Feliciano came back.
3) Feliciano is a leader in the room and I think that means a lot to McBeane. He can also play center in a pinch without losing much from Morse. Also, guards usually come cheaper than tackles, so keeping Feliciano will be about $5M-$7M cheaper than keeping Williams.
so I believe the organization will be able to bring back Milano and Feliciano, and that Williams will go and get a well deserved big pay day somewhere else.
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This game doesn’t concern me, which concerns me.
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I think he’ll break the record for breaking the most records in franchise history 🤣
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56 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Shaun Wade opposite Tre White is my dream scenario. I like Divine Deablo from VT (Day 2).
I think he’s better in the slot or as a hybrid slot/safety. But he could develop into an outside corner as well
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I know it was discussed, as nauseam last year with the possibility of Dugger. Is there anyone you see that could fill that role for the Bills?
Some guys I’ve noticed:
LB-Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Notre Dame 6’1 217lbs
(1st Round)
S-Hamsah Nasirildeen
Florida State 6’4” 215lbs
(Day 2)
S-Bubba Bolden
Miami 6”3 205
(Day 2)
LB- Tony Fields II
6’1 220 West Virginia
(Day 3)
One other possibility... if he bulked up over time...
CB- Shaun Wade
Ohio State 6’1 195
(1st/2nd Round)
He’s struggled a bit on the outside this year. I believe it’ll hurt his stock, but I do think he’ll be at his best if he’s used in the slot or as a 3rd safety. He has a ton of athletic ability and can really bring a different dimension to a defensive backfield. Not huge, but aggressive and a solid tackler.
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Kyler Murray, DK Metcalf, Russel Wilson or Rodgers are all ahead of Allen in my opinion. They like “big market” players. They won’t put a Buffalo player on there imo
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I tell anyone considering this... PLEASE listen to the Cover 1 podcast with Greg Tompsett from the bye week I believe, about the Bills 2021 cap situation.
While certain media types (WGR, Fairburn & Buscaglia on the Athletic) are bemoaning the Bills cap situation in 2021, they can do a lot, rather easily, to give themselves cap space.
With rollover from this year, we’re projected to have roughly $5M in cap space.Easier cuts like Vernon Butler ($6.8M saved), Tyler Matakevich ($3.35M) and Lee Smith ($2.25M) can be made. That saves a total of $12.4M
John Brown, Jerry Hughes, and Micah Hyde can all be re-signed, lowering all of their 2021 cap hits, by an average of about $3M-$4M each. That saves another $10M-$12M.
Also, their 2022 years of their contracts (except maybe Hyde, would be relatively easy to get out of if Hughes/Brown regress further in 2021).
So with those cuts and extensions, we’re at about $27M-$29M.Lastly you can restructure contracts. This is usually reserved for players who you plan on keeping. You basically turn their salary for 2021 into a signing bonus which gets evenly divided throughout the length of the contract. Someone Ike Diggs is perfect for this, gives him more money up front, and gives us a year to hold off on totally redoing his contract. It also saves about $7.5M-$8M on his 2021 cap hit.
So right there, without anything very painful at all, I’ve built up the Bills 2021 cap space to roughly $35M-$37M.
Then looking at a guy like Milano, maybe the injury allows him to take a deal that is more based on incentives, and has an overall value of maybe $11M/aav, but the cap hit for the first year is only say, $7M. Another $6M on Feliciano.
Our draft class should be cheaper since we pick later, maybe $3.5M, and then re-sign outstanding free agents (Dean Marlowe, Taiwan Jones etc etc) for veteran minimums of roughly $1M each (let’s say 6 guys make the roster at the end of the day, a cost of maybe $8M total).
We’ve filled a roster, re-signed two of our three top UFA’s, and added 6 draft picks, a complete roster, for about $25M of that $37M-$39M in cap space.
That leaves us with about $12M-$14M to play with in the UFA market, or make trades, or keep in space and roll over into 2022 when Allen and Edmunds will likely be on their 5th year options and more space will be needed.
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Not my favorite, probably my least favorite. Really like the white top blue bottoms. All blue is the best if you’re gonna do color rush.
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1 minute ago, Victory Formation said:
I think McDermott has huge potential.. but he can simply no longer be a DC.. He has to have a great understanding of offense as well to be successful long-term.
Agreed. And I think that comes with time. Belichick has had 20+yrs in New England alone to become that kind of coach. Andy Reid is one of those coaches as well to me, but more offensive oriented, but has also had a long time to reach that level.
Next year will be year 5 for McDermott, and i believe if they lose Daboll it will necessitate McDermott becoming a bigger part of the offensive brain trust. His overall aggressiveness (willingness to going for it on 4th for example) makes me think he’ll be a valuable mind to the offensive game plan and execution.
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I think they fill it from within. And I think Ken Dorsey gets the job as the OC.
I know a lot of the league is trending towards offensive coach matched with a QB (Mahomes-Reid, Rodgers-LaFleur, Goff-McVay).
I do believe no small part of this offense’s success is due to Daboll. But this is Allen’s 3rd year in the system, Daboll and Dorsey have been here the entire time together, Dorsey knows the system and knows Allen.
But I believe overall the better setup is to have a strong QB run your offense, and a coach who can coach up the defense, like McDermott. I do believe he’s also growing as a head coach right in front of our eyes and that this organization has a top-5 Head Coach/Quarterback combo and in my estimation THAT is the greatest precursor to long term success if well managed (which I also believe we are with Beane as GM as well).
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12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
Good point. We absolutely crushed the dolphins with crossers. I do wonder though why they have gone away from that. Not sure if it’s because we are seeing more zone than man lately?I think a lot of it is what the defenses that they’re showing us. Miami does a lot of Cover 1 & Cover 0 so maybe with so much man coverage they felt they could exploit them horizontally on those slants and crossers
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1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
Interesting comment re the slant.
I find it weird that we rarely, if ever, run quick slants.
I thought we ran a lot more early on in the season. Slants & crossers.
Maybe they realized it’s successful and are just looking for other things to be successful with and then they can pull this back out come playoff time if the opportunity arises?
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3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:
I am curious as to why you think that we are all set at Center, given Morse and his concussion history.
I believe they’ll re-sign Feliciano and that he could play there without losing much if needed.
I believe they’ll be able to clear about $30M in cap space via restructuring (Diggs), extensions (Hughes, Brown, Hyde), and cuts (Butler, Matakevich, Smith). Along with about $5M they’re set to have in cap space $35M will be enough to bring back Milano in a more backloaded, Incentive laden deal, and Feliciano as well.
I believe Daryl Williams will be gone and that they’ll probably look for his replacement early on in the 2021 draft.
17 hours ago, JaCrispy said:I’m concerned with the RB position, but I agree with your overall philosophy for the upcoming draft...👍
I agree with the concern at running back. But I believe they’re looking for a committee as opposed to finding a workhorse. Singletary and Moss have their negatives, but both bring something to the table. I believe they’re missing that speed back that can really stretch out a defensive front-7 horizontally
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41 minutes ago, CNYfan said:
I believe the offense really misses John Brown. When he is out, the whole thing looks more difficult.
Agree. I think he’s the only real true speed option on the team. Diggs can win deep, but he’s not necessarily a burner.
McKenzie is almost more quick than fast. And no need to talk about the running backs.
If we add one thing offensively this off season I’d want a depth option with speed added to the offense, particularly at wideout.
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I think they’re gearing up for a couple tough divisional games to end the season. If they beat New England and Miami, that alone gives them at least 10 wins with a 6-0 record against the AFC East. That would basically crown them the division.
I think the mentality of preparedness amongst the coaches & staff is understood throughout that organization (players, coaches, staff, water boys etc etc).
I agree the defense has been really gearing up, and I would say most of that is getting healthy. Edmunds looks like he’s feeling a lot better. Wallace and Norman are healthy, Tre is healthy, and young guys are getting opportunities (Epenesa and D. Johnson dressed while Murphy was benched).
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Before this year, he’s missed 3 games in 3 previous seasons, 2 in 2018 and 1 in 2019.
I know he’s had some nagging things that he’s played through as well, but he’s played through them, which is a testament to his toughness IMO.If he gets on the market I bet he’ll get $12M/yr from a team that has a lot of cap space (even with the reduced cap there will be a few of those).
I believe the best thing would be a 3yr deal, with much of it incentive based (probably based on games played), with a cap hit of around $7M in 2021, then up to about $12M the last two seasons and also be something that can be gotten out of relatively easily (see John Brown contract).
Prioritize which upcoming UFA’s to re-sign
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I don’t believe Beane is afraid to give out big contracts to any of these guys.
I believe the rub will be in guaranteed money. They won’t sign contracts that handicap their future unless it’s for franchise type players at important positions (QB, LT, CB1, WR1).
That’s basically why we signed guys like Addison and Butler as opposed to Shaq & J. Phillips.