I agree on those games you mention but they will be overwhelming favorites for LV, @ WAS, and TEN. Even if they win only those 3 we will have to beat DEN, NYJ, @ LAC, and NE to have a shot at the division
If this happens, we will get in at least as a wild card with a victory over Miami. Might even win us the division, but that is less likely as Miami would have to go 3-4 leading up to Week 18 with a pretty easy upcoming schedule
This is the best and likeliest route to the playoffs for the Bills. Would put us at 7-5 in the AFC which should be good enough for a wild card, and may still allow us to be in position to win the division in the final week