Richard Noggin
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Posts posted by Richard Noggin
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On 6/19/2019 at 9:57 PM, BuffAlone said:
P.S. Byron Brown is a douche
Interesting comment, considering that Brown is a slick-enough politician not to ever display actual personality traits in public. (Which is not a terribly complimentary take.)
So how is he a "douche"? I don't ask in a partisan way at all. His policies don't define his behavior. And "douche" is such a particular term for people who behave a certain way...
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1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:
I think it’s less about preparing for what your opponent is going to do, which is a guessing game early in the season for everyone, and more about being able to execute your own game plan well. I think the advantage there is on our side.
I don't exactly disagree on general terms, except that this particular circumstance tilts the gameplan advantage to the Jets' favor.
McD's week one gameplan guessing game is far more hypothetical than Gase's. His coaches have several years of concrete, Buffalo Bills film to base their gameplan on. And hell, Gase has faced McD's Bills first-hand four times over that span. So the current book on Buffalo (their team can evolve, of course) is well-established. The New York Jets, on the other hand, are MUCH more mysterious and difficult to tailor a gameplan to. New schemes and new personnel.
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52 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:
I couldn't tell you, but I'd be interested to know.
My perception was that neither Murphy, nor Lawson were really complete DEs last season, anywhere near the way Hughs has been. When Murphy was active last season, I believe the two were swapped frequently, with Murphy being the better pass rusher, and Lawson used against the run. But, I have no stats, or evidence to back that up. I can't tell you that as I watched the games, I was able to account for all 11 players on the field. and I have no desire (or time) to analyze, play by play, which situations these two were placed in. It was just my perception that last season I watched Lawson work (effectively) in stopping the run, and I watched Murphy pressure the QB a lot more than Shaq. Was this by design? I suspect so.
Love the honesty. Of course that's where most fans fall: in this highly subjective place of watching the games live (in-person or on TV either at a business or a private home) and forming (sometimes strong) assessments based upon imperfect, fleeting, and incomplete information (often gathered while we curse, converse, gesticulate, drink, pace about). I thought, in total disagreement, that Lawson made impactful plays, on meaningful downs, deflecting passes (especially as the season wore on). I'm sure stats can prove me right or wrong here.
That being said (that fans like me have subjective and/or faulty opinions), I think the decade-plus drought would have been interrupted if Wilson had simply, post-Butler, implemented a crowd-sourced, Bills fan referendum approach to major football decisions. Poll the fans prior to the draft, free agency, and hiring head coaches and coordinators, and execute those majority decisions. It's not a good NFL success plan, but it would have avoided some draft blunders, fo sho.
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14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Wrong Williams. That was Karlos. This is Jonathan. This one had feet made of lead. The only cut he ever made was a paper cut.
Which makes it an even more puzzling pick, as I have personally witnessed Doug Whaley doing an unflattering imitation of Trent Richardson taking a handoff and trying to make a cut. He took like thirteen quick stomps forward/backward/sideways before moving forward. It was actually kind of funny. He did this in front of McCoy and a few other players and personnel, if I recall correctly.
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16 minutes ago, MJS said:
Well, it's tough to beat someone on their home opener. There's also a case for them having the advantage because they can game plan for us, but we cant for them as well because it's all new.
We'll see. I actually think we might lose to them week 1, but that's if the Jets can hold all those egos and disfunction in check.
I was having similar reactions, or at least questions, as I read the OP.
Are new coaches historically UNsuccessful in early-season games, especially in the last three to five seasons? The OP seems to be assuming (or knowing) that coaching changes tend to result in early season losses, for the reasons provided in that post.
HOWEVER, my initial thought, as I try to see it through an opposing gameplanner's perspective, is that new coaches and schemes with ZERO actual NFL game film with their current teams present a unique and probably frustrating challenge: akin to scouting college talent, the gameplanners must predict and project how previous schematic and situational traits and performance will translate and develop in new circumstances. That seems far more worrisome, ahead of time, than how well the opponent will execute said plans in-game. NFL coaches and players thrive on studying their opponents' specific tendencies. They hate the unknown.
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On 6/21/2019 at 6:17 PM, WhoTom said:
A textbook example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Dunning-Kruger reference on TBD? Outstanding.
But in the golden age of entitled, self-promoting, unreflective blowhard grifters...why isn't Ryan flourishing?
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On 6/20/2019 at 8:52 AM, Tenhigh said:
Nothing is earned?
This quote speaks to me.
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7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:
Just try to take a realistic look at the team.
I think a lot of Bills fans give too much benefit of the doubt with new regimes.
Totally agree. I'm guilty of it myself. But then again, since the 2012/Mario Williams off-season, I've enjoyed some limited but unique access to internal goings-on with players, coaches, executives, etc., which encourages a more nuanced and subjective perspective on the team; sometimes positively and sometimes negatively. In large part, though, these are often impressive people who inspire confidence in those around them (results notwithstanding).
I'll ask again because I'm genuinely interested: IF you were once less skeptical as a Bills fan, when i n the last 25+ years did you finally reach your tipping point with the team?
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3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:
Even if the WR group looks OK, I can't fathom why anyone would be upset if the Bills spent $$$ on a big time FA WR next offseason.
Two objectively AND subjectively solid posts in a row.
Multiple opportunities to defecate on the Bills roster/depth and you kept it classy and forward-leaning. Moreover, I completely agree with your points.
I'll bet you're really a savvy and funny guy "in real life," despite your persona here (and on the BBMB before that). I'll bet most "realist"/ toxic Buffalo fans were once hopeful and energetic supporters. Which disastrous decision or on-field debacle was most damaging for you? (I ask sincerely.)
I've been hurt, too.
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13 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
Wasn’t Preston Brown MLB?
'Zo definitely lined up in the middle for a portion of the game (play #4 in the link shows one instance of this). Watch the man do it. He's good at it.
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17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
I didn't go back and re-watch every Allen play but wouldn't it be fair to say that this was a PRE-INJURY Allen antic? I don't recall to many instances where he panicked and turned his back to the rush AFTER he came back from the injury. In fact wasn't it the Jacksonville game, his first one back, where he stepped into the rush and as three guys were wrapping him up delivered a deep strike for a 75 yard TD pass? And it seemed like Allen learned that rather then running around like a chicken after the pass protection broke down he should just look for a running lane and take off.
I would also argue that most of the "laughable film" came from the Green Bay game. This was truly Allen's worst game as a rookie. But let's not forget that it came right after one of his best games. This means Allen was INCONSISTENT, especially before his injury. You should see my shocked face at the idea that a rookie QB might not be consistent in his play.
I think I agree with your negotiation of my previous points.
Reasonable back-and-forth. Feels good.
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8 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
What so many Bills fans seem to forget is that Josh Allen wasn't supposed to start in 2018. He was supposed to sit and learn while Peterman played behind that craptastic line with the inferior receiver corps and he would take the beating. Allen was graded as a developmental project and the Bills FO acknowledged this and had Peterman taking all the first string reps.
Then Allen was thrown into the fire, unprepared to fight that fire, and what a fire! It was a full blown dumpster tire fire with an OC who had never fielded a better then 23rd passing offense in his previous four years in the NFL as an OC. A QB coach who had never been an NFL QB coach. No veteran QB on the roster to help this rookie learn the NFL ropes. We already talked about the bad line and receiver corps.
Yes, Josh Allen had a rocky NFL start in his first season. Allen had 11 game starts and went 5-6 with an inferior offense around him and like at Wyoming in his final year he basically needed to carry the entire offense on his shoulders. There was no real run game by the Bills RB's as Allen was the teams leading rusher with 631 yards, 8 TDs. The teams top two passing targets had 80 missed targets between them and thus the reason as to why one WR outright cut while the WR coach was replaced.
In 2018 QB Josh Allen WAS the offense while LeSean McCoy was averaging a measly 3.2 YPC avg while Josh Allen was averaging a crazy 7.1 YPC avg. That 5-6 win/loss record would more then likely be 6-6 if Allen didn't get hurt in that Texans game and Peterman throwing two INTs with a pick 6.
The NY Jets finished 4-12 with their rookie QB picked at the #3 spot. Cleveland was only one game better with the #1 overall pick on a much better team. The majority of this board wanted Josh Rosen in the draft and he went 3-10 at Arizona with a QBR of 26.6.
Get a grip folks, he was a rookie who didn't do so bad with one of the worst offenses the Bills have ever fielded. I for one am very excited to see what the kid can do with a decent line, decent receivers and now given the time to learn the offense.
I can see playoffs year after year for Buffalo in the near future.
I don't hate this narrative for last season, but it IS a glossy, Allen-centric depiction of something far more circumstantial and nuanced than we see here.
Again, I mostly agree. But why are so many fans drawn to such polarized interpretations? There's no monetary fan award for being proven right first about certain players, coaches, transactions, etc. I disagreed with the pick at first. Then the Bills had a meltdown at QB. Then Allen returned from the elbow injury (suffered in a Texans game most of us agree Allen would have steered to victory--which never gets brought up in the pre- vs post-injury critique, that maybe the rookie was progressing on-the-job even BEFORE his step-back) with some kind of spark, and/or leadership, and/or improved play, and I was sold. I'm excited to watch him play in 2019.
But let's not ignore the full truth. He was REALLY bad at times last season. He panicked in ways an NFL QB never should, especially the tendency to turn his back to the pass rush rather than step up. Resulted in some laughable film.
Let's be reasonable?
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On 6/16/2019 at 8:02 PM, Kelly the Dog said:
That would have been an almost expected post from a Josh fan. But from a Josh critic it is an excellent one. I find it hard for anyone to watch the games from last year and not see him swarmed immediately a huge portion of the time, and still trying to make a play. That is the reason for his completion percentage more than inaccuracy.
Agree to an extent. Allen was dealing with early, disruptive pressure on too many plays. But no "cynical man" completely white washes Allen's issues setting protections, reading defenses pre- and post-snap, and seeing the whole field quickly. The OP really sweeps too much under last year's turf.
But for the record, I'm more optimistic than pessimistic about his chances to improve.
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1 hour ago, MichaelAbdallah said:
I only disagree with the following:
3. Thompson over Stanford. You need a backup MLB on your roster. Without Stanford, we don't really have one. The preseason waiver wire is another option here.
Your eye for detail is appreciated here. Any high-functioning 4-3 defense needs on-field fluency from its MLB. That means a clear succession plan at the position. Stanford seemed to my limited eye to grow into that role last season.
However, I will go to my grave believing that #57 Lorenzo Alexander can, in a pinch, play MLB at a HIGH level in the NFL. The 2018 wildcard playoff loss to JAX is my primary evidence to support this claim.
https://www.buffalobills.com/video/top-5-lorenzo-alexander-plays-afc-wild-card-20215128
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2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
I don’t think we will see a 27/23 split between offense and defense. I’d expect one more DB and one less RB for starters.
I hadn't added it up (thank you), but I was immediately thinking that his projected offensive roster is a little bloated/indulgent at the skill positions.
I'd guess fewer WR(s) in favor of another DL, DB (or even a hard maybe on LB). Fans will thus worry over some interesting, albeit unproven, offensive players out there in the wind after cuts. It's a good "problem" to have, I say.
My 21st century roster-building mantra: QB plus those paid to quarrel over him (TM). That's who REALLY matters.
It's not a new idea.
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2 hours ago, Augie said:
I’m not a gambler, but I am willing to bet there is a 100% chance it is one or the other. Any takers?
Um...I'm not a mathematician, but what if he gets EXACTLY 9 sacks?
That's neither over nine nor under nine, right?
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3 hours ago, Estro said:
Ive said it before and Ill say it again: The Bills did not give Ty Nsekhe $6.5M this year to be a backup. If he is a backup, then it was a really bad signing, that is not a backup contract.
Whether its LT or RT I fully expect Nsekhe to be a starter come week 1.
Plans change.
2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:Then you are expecting Cody Ford to start at RG. I think the Ford pick changes their plans. Nsekhe becomes a high-priced swing tackle imo, but we'll see.
Right. Circumstances now dictate that Nsekhe might be best utilized a swing tackle, which he does quite well. The Bills can afford a highly paid swing guy with their cap situation. No sweat.
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10 hours ago, MichaelAbdallah said:
I'd also like to see the Bills try rolling with 10 OL on the roster. An entire backup line of Nsekhe - Spain - Bodine - Feliciano - Waddle would be the envy of the league!
That backup line is probably a bloated use of roster spots, as Feliciano and Long both have C flex, making Bodine (who doesn't really play G--not a big, strong dude) expendable. If only one of our depth guards also had T flex, we could do away with a 4th T as well. I think nine linemen is the max we'll carry, eliminating Bodine. I could listen, albeit un-enthusiastically, to an argument for eight, even, with either Waddle or Spain being cut (as neither has position flex--that I know of).
It's all about position versatility for oline backups. Just like it's often about special teams utility for WR/RB/TE/LB/DB backups.
P.S. Sometimes I feel like an a-hole predicting cuts or critiquing players like this, when my 2nd job has me interacting and getting to know them, their families, and the staff (of PSE/Buffalo sports teams in general) fairly well over time. Bodine is a smart, cool guy. I wish him the best. (He's NOT very large by linemen standards, btw. Listed at 6'4" 311, which might be a bit generous for both measurements.)
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9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
Nice post. It makes a lot of sense that the defense could be much better.
I think Edmunds is a huge question mark. I have a good deal of confidence in Allen making the big second-season jump in performance; not so much in Edmunds.
As you note, if the offense gets better, that will help a lot. Field position, time on the field, score all should be working more in the Bills' favor this year.
Oddly enough, I have a similar concern.
Against the run especially, Edmunds has never shown the physicality and playmaking ability that the NFL's best MLBs, even early in their careers, display regularly. He strikes me as more of a freak athlete who's pretty good at football, rather than a heckuva football player who happens to be a good athlete.
9 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:I agree Shaw. I’m dying to see if Edmunds put on any weight over the off season. I hope so.
250 not heavy enough?
I agree he has the frame for more mass, but I've not heard his weight used against him, until now.
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16 hours ago, HT02 said:
What will be interesting to watch is that last year the Patriots played quite a few games (including both games against the Bills) where they clearly were committed to running the football. Even playing old-fashioned power football and doing it successfully. As Brady continues to age, and his replacement isn't obvious, I wonder if Belichick is going to be ahead of the curve again and take advantage of these smaller, faster more athletic linebackers by using power football to wear them down. I stall have nightmares watching the gigantic offensive lines of the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys abuse Jeff Wright and the lighter, faster athletic defenses of the Bills.
Of course I could just be suffering from battered fan syndrome.
It's interesting, through this lens, to look at the types of linebackers New England has fielded in recent memory: my immediate thought is that Belichick has had continued success with bigger bodies at LB (multiple 250+ guys). Hightower and Van Noy last season, Collins (who was an athletic freak), Mayo, and Spikes before that...
All while the rest of the league gets lighter and faster and more pass-happy.
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On 6/7/2019 at 7:12 AM, Johnnycage46 said:
This actually makes me like him more (can't believe I am saying that). Other players could learn something from him regarding being a "present" father.
True. But so many of us have to be absent more often than we'd like to make ends meet.
Brady has the means to make expensive arrangements to have his family closer to work during the very long NFL "season", if he so chooses. He's definitely earned the right to do as he pleases with respect to voluntary "off-season" workouts, but it's an issue with me that he does so for the same reasons that so many of his younger, less-established teammates share but cannot/should not indulge.
I believe the more seniority, security, and salary an employee accrues, the more responsibility (moral/ethical) they have to lead by example. Not on behalf of their employers, but instead on behalf of their colleagues who are still grinding to carve out a stable living. So often, of course, it works out quite the opposite. All the way up the ladder.
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On 6/8/2019 at 5:59 PM, GunnerBill said:
You do realise that most of those plays in Rex's last year where Gilmore was pointing at the safeties was because the safeties were actually terrible. Rex's last year our safety play was the worst in the NFL.
For sure...but the on-field blame-displays DURING said plays is just really poor football character.
I effing hate working with ego cases like that (in admittedly different circumstances).
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5 hours ago, NewEra said:
He failed at upgrading the OL
I'm reading this a lot on this thread.
Scuttlebutt is he got canned because he did NOT draft for need? That's kinda, like...backwards, yeah?
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14 hours ago, teef said:
my fear is that the moon will collide into the earth.
What if it's just a slender, crescent moon? And it pierces only some lame-ass, non-tax-dollar-generating land mass?
Might be kinda cool...
Schedule makers give Bills big advantages vs Jets
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I don't really disagree with you. Just pointing out that your OP maybe avoids the advantageous "unknown" of a new coaching staff and scheme that the Jets present to the Bills staff leading up to week one. I still value the Bills players having now a second off-season in the same playbook; don't oversimplify what I'm saying to make it some kind of binary opposition to you. Just don't also overlook competing narratives. There's room for complexity.