BigDingus
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Posts posted by BigDingus
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19 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:
I agree that he could potentially see a bump in numbers due to Allen and the system here, but his glowing praise of Palmer and his ability to win more than most receivers etc is just flat out nonsense
I'll hope he can become a guy who can produce at a starters level, but to me that's likely the dudes ceiling. What we've seen from him so far is he's probably a borderline boundary receiver
He could also see a dip in his numbers due to Allen & the system here, just as Curtis Samuel did (worst season in his career) or Amari Cooper (barely averaged 2 receptions a game).
I think our system is more centered around running the ball now, which is reflected in the passing & receiving numbers being down so much (especially Josh's). Which is all the more reason I feel Cook should've been one of the first people paid, as he was our best weapon & the person to take the most pressure off of Josh.
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3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
What’s his ceiling ?No idea, but his TDs have gone down every year since he was a rookie.
2021: 4 TDs
2022: 3 TDs
2023: 2 TDs
2024: 1 TD
Here's to 0 TDs in 2025 to cap things off! 😂
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Neat. The one WR we get in FA every year who we all hope breaks out.
Maybe this time it'll actually happen.
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Tisk, tisk... He should've played out his contract to give us more time to see what he can do!
What if he ends up a bust like Elam? Bad move by Bills brass.
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I'd rather they extend Cook over most of those guys, especially given he's been more productive & would cost less money than someone like Rousseau.
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2 hours ago, BuffAlone said:
Zero factor
I doubt that. I know a lot of people think "tariffs will only add 10% to the cost of the end product!" or "if supplies aren't coming from tariffed countries, no issues!" but that's not what happens (not saying YOU specifically).
Add 10%+ to every bit of manufacturing & distribution up & down the supply chain, plus whatever price increases these guys will add to keep their expected margins, keep up with expected inflation, or simply take advantage of the opportunity to raise costs. Then you factor in if these companies use labor, shipping or whatever from affected countries at any point in the chain. A company may be importing materials from a country outside of tariffs, but that doesn't mean who they're importing from doesn't have their own costs tied in with another tariffed country.
And given how interconnected so many of these companies/countries are, always looking for the cheapest route possible while increasing their own margins, prices go up across the board & leak into other markets.
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21 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
2.2 billions does not buy what it did 6 years ago
And that's what happens when you drag your feet doing something we all knew was going to happen eventually.
Imagine paying nearly $1 billion more than the Cowboys did for AT&T stadium (or $300 million accounting for inflation) and getting significantly less for the investment.
Then again, looks like we're on our way to a recession at this point, with prices skyrocketing for everything & wages falling even further behind. Guess I can't be too hard on them. We're all feeling it.
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Huge waste imo.
I'm in the minority, but we were already paying Rousseau almost as much as Cook wants, yet Cook has a much bigger impact than Groot.
But people are still of the mindset RBs are a dime a dozen, despite the fact we struggled to find a RB for years (and despite the SB champs proving how valuable a good run game is). This year was our most productive offense ever, but since it wasn't all high-flying passing through Josh, people dismiss it.
Meanwhile, our middling defense who gives up historically high numbers in their playoff losses, is getting rewarded with extensions at various positions.
If there's one thing I've learned it's that you could remove the weakest link on D & replace him with a great player, yet come playoff time, the D performs the same. That's because unlike our offense, the D is consistently stuck with McD. The offense gets retooled & new coordinators can come in, but D stays the same.
I put this in another thread, but tell me which group has had DEFINITIVELY a bigger impact:
A) Edmunds, Oliver, Groot, Basham, Elam, Epenesa,
B) Milano, Bernard, Benford, Hamlin, T. Johnson, D. Williams
I'd say it's pretty even. But people want us to use more early picks on D and extend these guys, then just hope McD & Beane finally land a star.
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On 3/3/2025 at 8:01 AM, YoloinOhio said:
My 16 year old daughter knows who he is and that’s all I need to know. He’s a tik tok star bc he cheated on his insta Thot girlfriend apparently. Everything I know about him I learned against my will. Also anyone named Jaxson isn’t getting that extra yard on 4th and 2.
Sounds (and looks like) a Mormon dude I know. And given that he's from Utah, I think I'm not too far off...
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3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
This!
The Bills had the #1 defense in 2021 with Poyer, Hyde, and Tre White, even with Levi Wallace. Hyde and Poyer both had 5 INTs on the year. Pass rush was ok with Mario Addison leading the team with 7 sacks. That secondary was very good.
Huge drop off when Rapp and Benford were both out. Add to that little or no pass rush and you have a really bad defense.
The 2025 Bills need to improve their secondary and pass rush, and with both improved, you have a more balanced unit.
But even when we had prime Poyer, Hyde & White (along with Milano & Edmunds), our D still looked the same in the playoffs. The best game they ever had against a good QB was against the Ravens in the Divisional round. The 4 losses to the Chiefs & 1 to the Bengals looked the same regardless of who we had out there, all because McDermott.
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So when they inevitably do not reach their goal, what then?
Do they have to lower prices or do they just wait it out?
They better hope the team stays a competitor & Josh stays healthy for as long as possible (well, we all hope that), because good luck selling those PSLs if we ever hit another drought.
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57 minutes ago, T.E. said:
The defense won those games. Rob Johnson also effectively won the Titans game, which most people forget. Flutie had the same opportunity at Miami the year before in the playoffs and predictably turned it over in the red zone, something that lost multiple games for the Bills in 1999.
It does not matter. There's a reason you don't pull your season-long starter QB & replace him with the backup come playoff time. No other team is dumb enough to do that.
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On 3/1/2025 at 9:45 AM, billieve420 said:
In a weak WR class could live with this being one of our 2nd round picks. Defense should be the priority in the first.Eh, I disagree. No matter what kind of players we have on D, it's still coached by McD & still fails to show up in the playoffs. Would anyone say our safeties are better than prime Hyde & Poyer? Definitely not, yet they performed pretty much the same come playoff time. I'm not saying it's hopeless, but our defense has been historically bad in these last 5 losses.
Whether McDermott goes heavy D in the 1st or 2nd, the end result ends up the same because he still coaches the same & goes after the same types of players. Did Ed, Groot, Basham & Elam have more impact than Hamlin, Bernard, Benford & Williams? Maybe slightly, but those 1st & 2nd round picks haven't really been much more impactful come playoff time than the picks we took later in the draft.
In my opinion, might as well keep taking shots at giving Josh the best weapons possible. The offense is the only thing that really has a chance to change & improve year over year, and it's lead by our best player. In a perfect world, Josh would've been paired with a great offensive coach, then if the D isn't carrying its weight, we could replace the coordinator & start over. But we're stuck with McDermott's D no matter what.
We've seen 6 years of McDermott's D suck in the playoffs, while Josh shows up. Spent a 1st round pick on Edmunds & he's just solid. Spent a 5th on Milano & he became a stud. You just never know, but I've yet to see McDermott find a huge impact player in the 1st round outside of Josh, but we've seen him do so in the later rounds.
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1. Allen
2. Kelly
3. Bledsoe
4. Kemp
5. Ferguson
6. Flutie
7. Fitz
8. Tyrod
9. Reich
10. Alex Van Pelt
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12 hours ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:
Not sure why they are intent on giving teams getting beat the whole game chances to win when they really don’t deserve it.
How does an onside kick mean a team is "getting beat the whole game?"
The exact opposite could happen, and the team going for the onside kick could've been in the lead most of the game, only for the other team to go on a tear at the end. Or it could be a back & forth game, only for a team to commit a turnover & get another score behind. Maybe it's just a team wanting to surprise someone with their pants down & kick an onside kick to start the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately, you can't do that anymore under the current rules.
Onside kicks have been part of the game for ages, only now they've been neutered to the point that they're practically useless.
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9 hours ago, Bferra13 said:
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2025/01/27/hawkeye-nfl-first-down-chiefs-bills/
Sal was talking about this after the AFC Championship. That this just replaces the chain gang and not where the ball is actually spotted. And said this would not have changed the call as this article does as well. I dont know why they won't chip the ball.
Exactly. It doesn't really change much. Here's this from ESPN -
Among other changes, the NFL plans to use its virtual measuring system to determine first downs in 2025. This wouldn't eliminate the officials who manually spot the ball and use chains to mark the line to gain. The optimal tracking system notifies officiating instantly if a first down was gained after the ball is spotted by hand. "We used this in the background last season," said Kimberly Fields, the NFL's senior vice president of football operations. "The goal for 2025 is to continue to train our techs, who are the ones who will be utilizing the technology, finalizing all of our officiating processes and procedures around virtual measurements and testing the graphics for the broadcast and in-stadium, so fans in the stadium and fans watching on television can see what we're doing. The chain crew will still be there as backup."
So yeah, apparently this was already in use last year. Not sure why they insist on keeping the chain gang or all the other nonsense. Just use the concrete tracking data & stop dicking around already.
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11 hours ago, Magox said:
Now we just need to get Cook at around $12m AAV, Bernard at around $10m AAV, Rousseau at around $23m AAV and Benford around $21m AAV.
Get all these deals done and that frees up close to $20m from this years cap, extend Josh to an additional 4 years $245m and that will free up another $12m
Out of all those, I do not think Rousseau is worth $23 million a year. He's good enough, sometimes, but he disappears in too many games. He's not a real force that demands constant attention. It's like Ed. Sometimes good, seems good in advanced stats, but then you don't see him do much in a lot of games.
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He definitely will be a HOFer. I wouldn't be surprised if he was 1st Ballot, even if it's uncommon for OL to get that honor. He was 1st or 2nd team All-Pro 6 times and a 9 x Pro Bowler. Dude had insane longevity too. Playing OL at age 43? That's crazy.
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Tee Higgins - 4 out of 5 seasons with 900+ yards, though he missed 5 games each of the last 2 years.
Peerless Price - 2 out of 4 seasons with 800+ yards, though he did have that one 1,200 yard season.
But to put things in perspective, Price only had 5,281 receiving yards in his 9 year career. Higgins is already at 4,595 yards in his 5 year career. I know people might think his numbers are good because he plays opposite of Chase, but he had 900+ yards his rookie year prior to Chase's arrival.
Imagine if the Vikings somehow drafted Jefferson while keeping Diggs (yes, I know they used the extra pick in the Diggs trade but just hypothetically). Jefferson still would've blown up & become the WR1, but Diggs still would've been capable of being a WR1 on another team. I think this is more along those lines. Higgins isn't AS good as Chase, but he still has the talent & skillset to become a true WR1 on another team.
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7 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
They want returns. That will
make that happen.
7 hours ago, Low Positive said:They are trying to create a real incentive for teams to kick short of the goal line to increase the number of returns. They can't find the line between entertainment and player safety.
Exactly. This isn't about trying to give the offense more of an advantage or increase scoring, this is definitely to encourage teams actually kick the ball in play & increase returns.
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I've been throwing out the idea that Micah Parsons would be a good option. He's young, not really injury-prone (though he missed a few games this past year), and has a nose for the QB.
He's definitely a little over-hyped, but he would easily give us 12 - 15 sacks a season without issue.
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On 2/16/2025 at 10:54 AM, Magox said:
This board and for that matter much of the league greatly values the worth of Wide receivers to their teams prospects to having success. As it stands there are 23 total receivers who make at least $20 million per year of which 11 make more than $25 Million. Just a couple years ago there were 14 who made $20M+ and just 5 that made $25M+.
The rate of inflation for paying receivers has outpaced the rate of the salary cap inflation as a whole. To put this into perspective, by the time the 2025 season begins nearly half the league will have allocated pretty close to 10% of their entire salary cap towards their star receiver.
Justin Jefferson made up 13.7% in 2024
Devante Adams 13.5%
CeeDee Lamb 13.3%
Cooper Kupp 12.8%
AJ Brown 12.5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 11.8%
Brandon Aiyuk 11.8%
Tyreek Bill 11.8%
Dk Metcalf 11.5%
Deebo Samuel 11.5%
Out of which 4 of them made the playoffs this past year.
https://theanalyst.com/2024/09/are-the-highest-paid-wide-receivers-worth-it
The league over the past 17 years had steadily increased their rate of passing which justified an increase in the rate of inflation to receivers. Back in 2005 teams were throwing on average for 203.5 and saw a steady increase all the way to 2020 peaking out at 240.2 yards per game. Since 2020, teams have began to run the ball more often and more successfully, seeing the passing rate steadily decline to 217.6 yards per game which is a substantial 10% rate of decline in passing yardage over the past 5 years. It makes sense that teams have evolved and have adjusted to playing more bully ball against teams that were designed to stop passes who employed lighter boxes and base nickel defenses leading to the decline in passing yards.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
It's not coincidence that sometime around 2020 NFL teams which was when teams were at their zenith in terms of passing yards had begun to seriously deflate Running back valuations comparatively to the rest of the NFL rate of player personnel pay and began the inflation of wide receiver pay relative to the NFL pay as a whole.
The question begs is the rate of pay inflation in the NFL for receivers justified?
Before I get into that, I wanted to share some stats.
The four teams that threw the ball the least in 2024 was Philadelphia, Baltimore, Green Bay and Buffalo. All 4 teams were playoff teams, one won the Super Bowl, another went to the AFC championship. Out of the top 10 teams that passed the ball least 7 made the playoffs.
This past year in 2024, out of the top 10 receivers in terms of receiving yards only 3 played in the playoffs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey.
Out of the top 10 of the teams that spent the most for wide receivers in 2024 only 3 made the playoffs. Out of the bottom 17 teams that spent the least in wide receivers in 2024, nearly half of them did make the playoffs.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/wide-receiver/_/year/2024/table/active/sort/cash_total
It's clear that for NFL teams to be successful that it is not necessary to have true blue #1 blue chip boundary WR's. Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are examples of this. Out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, only 5 teams have receivers that are being paid over $20M a year.
It's evident that the NFL has begun to trend towards running against lighter boxes more and passing the ball less. It takes a little time for GM's to adjust to realities on the ground, but we are beginning to see the deflationary cycle break in terms of paying playmaking RB's, but we've yet to see this happen in the wide receiver market. There are traditional factors at play such as basic supply and demand, in which unfortunately for RB's, the supply of RB's are expected to increase through this years RB crop of rookies which may put a damper on the overall RB market and that inversely there aren't that many stellar WR's in this year rookie crop which may prevent a lid for WR's.
With all that said, I do expect to see the inflationary rate of pay for Wide receivers to begin to subside sometime in the near future. I don't advocate for having bottom tier talent at the receiver spot, what I am advocating is that it's not necessary to pay these extreme high wages that eat up so much cap room for a WR, specially in a league that has consistently been trending towards passing the ball less over the past 4 seasons.
I feel like all this points to why it actually does make sense to pay Cook.
The WR rate is increasing while the passing game is decreasing. Meanwhile, teams that have started running the ball more & good RBs have been seeing success. The Eagles won a SB after trading for Barkley, Henry nearly ran for 2,000 yards despite people thinking he'd be slowing down at this point, and James Cook was scoring TDs like crazy & our best weapon on offense.
His role should probably increase even more, and he's still a lot cheaper than a top WR.
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I can't remember every practice squad or 3rd stringer that ever played for the team, so I'm just going off biggest disappointments in terms of draft selection.
1. Aaron Maybin
2. Kaiir Elam
3. Mike Williams
4. Erik Flowers
5. Perry Tuttle
Honorable mentions to Vontae Davis for making it half a game before retiring at halftime, and Nate Peterman for just being Nate Peterman.
Edit: Oh, and Rob Johnson. What a waste of time, money & effort. He was never any good, and all hopes of him being good ruined actual good teams by forcing him upon us.
7 hours ago, The Wiz said:I'm basically playing the devils advocate on this one I'll just say that the facts are still pretty damning for him:
1st round pick
beat out by a 6th rounder
had to trade for a 30 yr old CB to replace him
the journeymen that we have normally get the call up over him when the starting 2 are out.
Might not make him the "worst" but definitely puts him in the "biggest bust" category.
Nah, I'd put him right up there with the worst of the worst.
But I've always thought Elam was bad & never had any faith in him. The fact he was a 1st round pick & stayed on the roster this long just reaffirms my feelings.
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4 hours ago, Low Positive said:
They won two games without scoring a TD.
Which is why they're searching for an upgrade at QB.
The team continues to find ways to win & get into the playoffs, despite having crappy QB production & while playing in one of the toughest divisions.
An actual good QB could definitely change things for them.
Mack Hollins signs with Patriots
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I don't get it, why? 4 million a year for what he gave us?
That looks like a steal compared to what we've paid WRs that accomplished much less.