BigDingus
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At least he doesnt turn the ball over
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This is why he is still sorry. Defense forced 4 turn over. Now what?
They didn't do enough. Having 4 times the turnovers as the opponent usually doesn't matter in the game. Never helps.
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Add yet another loss when we trail at ANY point during the 4th quarter to the resume.
2015:
Lost to Pats (32 to 40)
Lost to Giants (10 to 24) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 16
Win against Titans (14 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10
Lost to Pats (13 to 20) - Started 4th Qt 10 to 20
Lost to Chiefs (22 to 30) - Started 4th Qt 22 to 24
Lost to Eagles (20 to 23) -Started 4th Qt tied 20 to 20
Lost to Redskins (25 to 35) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28
2016:
-Lost to Ravens (7 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10
-Lost to Jets (31 to 37) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 27
-Lost to Dolphins (25 to 28) - Started 4th Qt leading 17 to 14
-Lost to Pats (25 to 41)
-Lost to Seahawks (25 to 31) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28
-Win against Jaguars (28 to 21) - Started 4th leading 20 to 14
-Lost to Raiders (24 to 38) - Started 4th Qt leading 24 to 23
-Lost to Steelers (20 to 27) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 21
-Lost to Dolphins (31 to 34) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 28
2017:
-Lost to Panthers (3 to 9) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 9-Lost to Bengals ( doesn't matter )- Started 4th Qt leading 13 to 10
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Yep. He is exactly what we said he was. He looks the same as he's always been. And now his record goes to 2-16 when going down by even a single point in the 4th quarter. Tyrod cannot win games when we go behind AT ALL. Our defense did everything they could to save this team, but Tyrod & Co. said "no thanks."
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Defense is just gassed.
When the offense can't get first downs, that's what happens. Our defense has given us every chance possible to get into this game, but we don't do much with it.
Andy Dalton looks like a HOF'er compared to Tyrod. His 2 picks were the result of a drop right through the hands of his best WR, and the other another tipped pass. He's been money on 3rd down all game too. Our offense on the other hand has what, 40 yards of total offense through the entire 2nd half?
People love to say "passing yards don't matter!" or "3 & outs don't matter!" or "Tyrod only has low passing yards since he only attempts 24 passes a game!" but ignore their eyes and how they're all connected. He only averages 24 attempts per game because we don't convert 3rd downs and go 3 & out so often. He doesn't have the chance to pass more as he's sitting on the bench after a failed drive.
It's so frustrating, and now we go into the bye after losing to a 1-3 team that tore us up through the air, with more injuries, and more questions than answers on how good this team really is.
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And people say 3 & outs don't matter, but they've plagued us all game. Then when we catch a break, get a new set of downs via penalty, get a turnover, or get a great kick return, we still can't get a first down. It's embarrassingly bad. I'd rather have Hackett back.
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And here we go. Bills response after a Begals TD? Go 3 & out. Oh wait, a lucky penalty extends their drive, new set of downs. Surely, we can move the ball now. Nope 3 plays & punt, moving backwards.
But hey, at the start of the drive we had 34 yards of total offense in the 2nd half, definitely not Tyrod's fault though. 3 & outs don't matter. Even when the defense is giving you possessions, still can't do much with it.
I posted a stat earlier and broke down how if the Bills under Tyrod go down at ANY point in the 4th quarter we're 2-15. I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't look good for us. It's not all Tyrod's fault, it never is. But he's not a come-from-behind QB, so all we can do is hope for the best. Defense has given us all they can, the offense HAS to do something.And even with GREAT...absolutely GREAT field position, we net almost no yards period. Settling for yet another FG.
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Thanks for the well-documented post
Sorry I didn't go through their entire game log for the past decade and write an in-detailed post explaining every single time the Bills have faltered in inclement weather. Wtf were you expecting? And so far any time I've taken the time to breakdown stats from the past several years, all I get are stupid comments that say "STATS DON'T MATTER!" "WE'RE 3-1 THAT'S ALL THAT MATTERS!"
It's a post about weather, please show me a post of what you'd have liked to see in these 3 pages of posts. Who was the standout commenter that really made a difference?
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So a 3 & out after coming out of the locker room from half time. Now the Bengals start with much better field position than if we had a single first down.
- Notice Tyrod's low PASSING ATTEMPTS: See how he can't get MORE passing attempts because the drive ended? People always point to "well he only averages 24 attempts per game!" and blame the OC. Here's the thing, if we didn't go 3 & out, he'd NATURALLY get more passing attempts by virtue of still be on the field.
Again, 3 & outs DO matter. -
Stats are for losers.
Ok. Intelligent point. Thanks for your effort.
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Lmao. All that work and what did you prove? Look at how many of those games we scored 25 or more and still lost. BTW, only 6 teams in the NFL averaged 26pts per game last season. So if you expect TT and this offense to average 32pts per game (another TD drive) just to win, youre delusional.
Tyrod "willing" us to wins.
Drew Brees has a worse w/l record than Tyrod over the last 30+ games (2 1/4 seasons). Why cant Brees "will" his team to win; have lightning come our of his ars and catapult him into the end zone with his sheer "will."
I made it clear what I proved, and anyone who's not biased would see the writing on the wall. Go ahead & think what you want. Brees can will his team to win, and has done so plenty of times. Sorry he's almost 40 now, but he's got way more 4th quarter wins. Tyrod CANNOT win when we're down in the 4th. The stats make it clear. You can beat around the bush, deflect, and get offended, but it's the truth.
And here's the kicker, GOOD QBS DON'T FINISH LAST IN THE LEAGUE IN PASSING OFFENSE. It's funny you throw out Tyrod's win/loss record win it's still NOT good. And you, like others, will blindly ignore what anyone else can plainly see on the field, then when asked for proof or stats you deny those too.
But then people will throw out "well he's ranked 10th in yards per completion!" as if that is some massive accomplishment. He is tenths of a yard higher than a QB ranked 21st in the same stat, and tenths of a yard lower than the QB ranked 6th.
He doesn't sustain drives, he doesn't move the ball consistently, we stay in bad field position throughout the game, we score via the kicker most of the time, our defense is on the field way too long, I mean you guys will just ignore everything to blindly defend him.
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Nuh uh! That says Kentucky! Cincy isn't in Kentucky! STOP TRYING TO DECEIVE ME!
;P
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That part is completely false. Except for he overthrows wide open guys a couple times a game. Every QB does that.
As for being ranked 31st in passing its because he averages 24 attempts per game. Tyrod has been very efficient with those 24 attempts. Tyrod is 10th in the league in yards per attempt. If you want more passing yards blame the OC. Tyrod has delivered what they ask him to do.
It's not false, there has been plenty of breakdowns from PFF that have shown we have wide open guys he never sees, or he simply throws over their heads. And I wouldn't have to blame the OC if Tyrod hit those guys on 3rd down. Then guess what? Instead of punting he'd have another set of downs to add to his passing stats. If he only averages 24 attempts per game, that's also on him. He would have more opportunities if we didn't go 3 & out 48% of the time. You act like being 10th in the league in yards per attempt is a huge sign of something relevant. You do realize he averages 7.52 per attempt at 10th while the guy at 21 is averaging 7.01 per attempt, and the guy at 6th is averaging 7.88 per attempt.
That's not a lot of separation. That's a separation of tenths of a yard. 1st-5th place on that list average over 8 to 9 yards per attempt, everyone else is middle of the pack including Tyrod. That's probably the least relevant stat in terms of judging success at QB when he's near dead bottom in yards per game, and TD's. Yards keep the offense on the field getting us a new set of downs, increasing time of possession, and getting into scoring range while TD's get us actual points on the board. Yards help even if we punt, keeping the field position game in our favor. We give our defense time to recoup by not going 3 & out, keeping them fresh until the end of the game.
Tyrod not seeing and hitting those open receivers has just as much to do with his 24 attempts per game and being ranked 31st in passing. If he was so efficient and successful at throwing the ball, his attempts per game would be higher simply by virtue of staying on the field longer, but because he leads an offense that is 2nd in the league in 3 & outs, he isn't on the field to throw more often. Just see how well those 2 stats correlate - 2nd to last in passing while 2nd overall in 3 & outs. Obviously we wouldn't be so high in 3 & outs if we could pass the ball successfully.
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Does this reply = a professional TT hater?
Thanks for taking the time to research this. It's a very interesting and important stat.
Hopefully with our solid D play this year the numbers turn.
Hahaha I swear! I don't hate him at all!
I just knew I remembered that stat from somewhere, and then felt that yeah, I should do some research before spouting off something that might not be accurate.
I think he's the right choice for QB for this team with what we've had the past few seasons, and I do believe he's talented. I don't know if it's our offensive coordinators & play calling, if our O-line can't block for crap, our WR's are just bad or what....but people dismiss his low passing yards saying they don't matter are only half correct.
The stats themselves may not matter, but what they achieve in the game does. How many times do we force a team to punt at their 40, leading to us having to start drives from inside the 20? Quite often. Well even a single first down or 2 helps greatly. Teams stack the box and try to make Tyrod beat us through the air, but he rarely does, so we're forced to punt going 3 & out....A LOT.
This just puts the opposing offense back in good field position, making us rely on our defense once again to stop them. Most QB's average over 200 yards, and on a good day a few times a year hit 300+. This usually signals sustained drives, a few big plays, and 3rd down conversions. It helps reverse field position in the case of a punt, it helps keep corners backed off the line so they don't make plays in the backfield tackling RBs from the outside.
And people then say sarcastically "I guess TD's don't mean anything" or "points win games, not yards," as if Tyrod is getting TD's to compensate for no passing yards. He's not. He's tied for 20th with 4 other players. If our run game was killing it, I guess it wouldn't matter, but Mike Tolbert is the lone TD for the season rushing :/
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Harsh weather conditions usually have worked AGAINST the Bills the last several years, so I don't think it will help much. The Bills teams of old would revel in delight during bad weather, but these recent teams not so much.
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Ok, so did some research, Tyrod is 2-15 when we trail in the 4th quarter at any point (whether we begin the 4th behind or if we get behind by even a point).
2015:
Lost to Pats (32 to 40)
Lost to Giants (10 to 24) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 16
Win against Titans (14 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10
Lost to Pats (13 to 20) - Started 4th Qt 10 to 20Lost to Chiefs (22 to 30) - Started 4th Qt 22 to 24
Lost to Eagles (20 to 23) -Started 4th Qt tied 20 to 20
Lost to Redskins (25 to 35) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28
2016:-Lost to Ravens (7 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10
-Lost to Jets (31 to 37) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 27
-Lost to Dolphins (25 to 28) - Started 4th Qt leading 17 to 14
-Lost to Pats (25 to 41)
-Lost to Seahawks (25 to 31) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28
-Win against Jaguars (28 to 21) - Started 4th leading 20 to 14
-Lost to Raiders (24 to 38) - Started 4th Qt leading 24 to 23
-Lost to Steelers (20 to 27) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 21
-Lost to Dolphins (31 to 34) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 28
2017:
-Lost to Panthers (3 to 9) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 9
So in addition to the scores, I added what the score was at the beginning of the 4th Qt as long as we were within 2 scores (a deficit that is at least able to be overcome) to show where we stood.*2 of the 15 losses were blowouts against the Patriots. One in 2015 & one in 2016. By the time the 4th Qt came around, there was no realistic hope in any QB to bring us back.
*2 of the losses we began the 4th Qt with a lead. Once was against the Dolphins, leading 17 to 14. The other was against the Raiders, leading 24 to 23.
*In the other 11 losses we averaged a deficit of exactly 7 points, aka a single TD + extra point going into the 4th.
*In 1 of his 2 wins, we had a lead going into the 4th - Up 20 to 14 against Jacksonville to begin the quarter, to which they quickly scored a TD putting them up 20 to 21. We scored 4 mins later & kept the lead. The other win was against the Titans in 2015 when we began the 4th Qt down by 3 points.
In other words, if we are behind in the 4th quarter we do not win. Tyrod historically has not been able to will us from behind to win games. If we need to rely on the passing game, we lose. If we need more than a single score, we lose. In 11 of those losses, we averaged a deficit of a single TD.
All I'm saying is I am not confident in Tyrod ever getting us a win when we're behind. If we don't have a lead by the end of the 3rd quarter, history shows we lose. -
Not saying the stat is untrue but if you hear a stat from the media, I would look at the info before totally believing it. For instance Rodak said something like 48% of our drives were 3 and out. If you actually look at the game logs and not try to have an agenda with a stat, you would see that really its more like 30%.
Rodak was counting drives that ended in a FG as well. He was also counting times we were just burning clock. While technically it would be considered 3 and out, it doesn't make sense to include them because either we scored points or we were burning clock.
Now that stat you posted may be perfectly legit, but it may not be. In either case it was still bad. It didn't help that our D was swiss cheese.
But the 3 & out stat still counts for what it is, because it's in comparison to all the other teams doing the same thing. They also could be chewing clock or kicking FGs, so it's fair to point out the Bills have the 2nd most 3 & outs in the league (which isn't a good thing no matter how you cut it).
I remember at the time I did look into it, as it was after the Seahawks game in prime time where the refs screwed up that series before half time. I remember talking about it a ton on the old BBMB, but we no longer have access to those threads unfortunately :/
It would be a bit too hard to go back now & review them again, but I remember vividly talking about it quite a bit last season. In fact, I remember it being 1-13 or 1-14 until we beat Jacksonville 28-21. Jacksonville went up by 21-20 at the start of the 4th quarter, but then we scored soon after to take & keep the lead. So in actuality he may be 2-13 / 2-14 in games we go down by a single point at any time during the 4th quarter. I'll go back & see what I can find & post the results.
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...let's look at this logically.....a collegiate kid coming off a 160 reception season transitioning to the NFL, WHICH is a whole different ball game....he was not known for drops, so a few drops at the NFL level is a brand new world of hurt for the kid and a premature confidence breaker......he has to get over it and stop pressing because 160 receptions at this level ain't happening....at the same time, TT needs to look for other WR's as well including Zay who needs to build his confidence..."spread the wealth"....
I mean he's been targeted 17 times, 3rd most on the roster. The only people who have been targeted more are Charles Clay with 25 (which he's caught 18 - 72%) & LeSean McCoy with 23 (which he's caught 21 - 91%). Jones however has caught 4 of 17 - 23%... Jordan Matthews has only been targeted 13 times & has caught 10 of those - 77%.
In fact, Jones has the WORST reception percentage of anyone on our roster who has been targeted period. The next lowest reception percentage is Kaelin Clay, who has been targeted 4 times & only caught 1 pass - 25%. Pro NFL players, especially WRs, should catch around 70% of their passes (which about everyone else on the roster has).
WR is one of the more difficult positions for rookies to adjust to, but he's not just performing below average, he's doing epically bad. We can't afford to throw countless passes to him each game to help him "warm up" or build confidence. He has to make the plays himself! We are already 2nd in the league in going 3 & out, with 48% of our drives ending that way. We cannot risk throwing to Zay all those drives just to hope he'll eventually start catching some. We already don't throw the ball well, as we're ranked 31st in the league in passing. When Zay is targeted (which he frequently is), he has to make the most of those opportunities himself. Responsibility is on him.
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Wentz has never come back from a 14 point deficit. He's never won a game where the opponent scored more than 24 points. His 2 wins where the opponent scored exactly 24 points, those 2 teams currently have a combined 0-8 record, and the Eagles beat them by a combined 5 total points, including one win with a 61 yard field goal as time expired.
Is that the guy that's impressed you more than Tyrod has? Or were you thinking of someone else?
As of last season, Tyrod was 1-13, or something close, in games where we fell behind even a single point in the 4th quarter. If at any point during the entire 4th quarter the opponent got a lead, we lost. I remember that stat being rattled off countless times by broadcasters every time the opponent took a 4th quarter lead.
So it's not like Tyrod has some impressive record leading us from behind to victory. In fact, history shows that he's unable to bring us back from even the slightest deficits. There's virtually no margin for error when Tyrod is QB. We HAVE to stay extremely close all game for us have a chance. He cannot will us to victory on his arm & through the air.
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Just getting to the playoffs this year would be something special. Keeping draft picks on the roster that grow & develop would be awesome. Infusing more talent by hitting on our boatload of picks next year would make the next season truly exciting.
I just worry we won't draft a QB to develop if we make the playoffs. We might think "well clearly we can get there with Tyrod, why waste a high draft pick on another QB when there's more pressing positions to fill?" Unless Tyrod starts lighting it up, we still need to draft a QB to at least try & develop into a franchise QB. This draft is going to have quite a few talented prospects, and we should definitely be eyeing one.
Maybe if we're lucky, we can pull a Kansas City, get a talented pick that can sit behind our veteran starter while simultaneously lighting a fire under the starter's @$$. The Chiefs having the luxury of sitting on a 1st round QB behind Alex Smith who's playing lights-out is awesome. That's a plan I can get behind if the Bills can be so fortunate to have that opportunity. -
Still here. I'm not a "hater," of Tyrod, but I certainly don't think he's very good. He's a decent starter who on rare occasions can make a few plays. Sometimes he can even throw for 200+ yards, hit open receivers, and pass to the WR position!
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The Bills have gone 3 & out on 48% of their drives this season, second most in the NFL. We also are ranked 31st in passing. Through 4 games our QB is averaging 186 yards a game & just over 1 TD a game.
Our leader in receiving yards is our TE with 18 receptions for 227 yards, 30% of TT's total passing yards. Our leader in receptions & 2nd highest in receiving yards is our RB with 21 receptions for 163 yards.
Our THIRD leader in receiving yards & receptions is finally a WR, with Jordan Matthews having a whopping 10 receptions for 162 yards. So among our top 3 receivers, only one WR is making an impact, and he's at the bottom of the list just barely scraping by with double digit receptions behind our RB (never a recipe for success).
Even more embarassing is how badly it drops off from there. The receiving numbers take a nose dive, with our 4th highest leader in yards only having 4 receptions And it's Zay Jones, the much hyped 2nd round rookie WR who lead the FBS in receptions. That's just crazy... Our number 2 WR, a starter, is 4th on the list of receptions and has 1 catch a game. That's how atrocious our passing offense is. And let's not act like Zay hasn't had opportunities, he's been target 17 times!
Between the 3 & outs, the inability to throw to WRs, the sudden loss of the long ball in our offense, the overthrowing of wide open receivers, and the lack of a consistent run game has made Tyrod look really bad this season. It's not all his fault, it never is all on one person in football, but he's a big part of it.
With Glenn hurt the line has been inconsistent, and Shady is suffering from it too. He has no TDs, rushing or receiving, at all this year. Tyrod isn't running the same either, and also doesn't have a rushing TD. Mike Tolbert is the lone rushing TD for the team a quarter of the way through the season. That's pretty crazy to think about considering the past couple years. So yeah, the offense needs to step up & pull its weight. Simply saying "well they haven't turned it over" isn't going to be enough all the time. We've seen Tyrod be able to do more, I just hope he shows it soon. -
Hey, will Jim Kelly was drafted 14th overall, and Dan Marino 27th overall, so we can still manage to have a decent season and hit on a 1st round QB
Hell, Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th overall, so anything's possible!
And we've got the picks to trade up to middle of the first round in case we really want to pull the trigger on someone. Plus there's been plenty of successful QB's drafted after the 1st round, we just have to be one of the smart ones that find them.
Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, etc. are all starters right now who have been drafted after the first and been pretty darn successful. -
When I saw the headline of the thread, I just chuckled out loud. I mean I'm glad we're 3-1, but let's not kid ourselves, that's on the defense & our clutch kicker for the most part. Watching our offense rarely makes me think "I like what I see." We're once again abysmal through the air, ranked 31st in passing at the bottom of the league like last season, and our run game isn't as consistent or threatening as it used to be.
Our leader in receptions is our TE, followed by our RB. Our 2nd round "sure-hands" WR is averaging 1 catch a game. Our O-line can't pass protect, Tyrod is getting happy feet more quickly than ever, and he overthrows wide open guys a couple times a game, or he simply doesn't see them as he doesn't look beyond his 1st read before he takes off running. Last week he had that one TD pass where he looked through his progressions, remained calm, and hit the open guy in the end-zone & looked fantastic! If only he was more patient like that, coupled with our line being able to block in similar fashion, I could definitely say "I like what I see" from this offense.
Sadly, it looks pretty inept most of the time. I would just like for once to be confident on 3rd & 4 or even 3rd & 8 that we can come away with that conversion. It just seems like if we ever get to 3rd down, I'm more confident we're just going to be punting the next play.
I wonder where the professional TT haters are now?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Exactly. Even if I call out the obvious, it doesn't make me a hater. I'm just not going to make excuses for what I can see with my own eyes each & every game. But there are relevant stats that backup exactly what we see from him, and the most painful is the "Anti-Clutch" stat which shows he cannot win in the 4th quarter if we fall behind AT ALL.
2-16. Just remember throughout the year when the 4th quarter hits. If we don't have the lead, it's virtually over.