Shaw66
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Posts posted by Shaw66
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34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Samuel as of right now is a better player than Shakir. This post screams "I only watch the Bills." If Shakir hit the market right now he wouldn't be getting $8M AAV with $15M guaranteed. He isn't the caliber of player that stops you from trying to improve the position when a good opportunity presents itself. I appreciate Shakir's toughness and natural instincts after the catch but he was not an answer for our man coverage woes last year. Samuel is genuinely very good against man. And unlike Shakir he can actually play outside. I suspect for example all of the perimeter screens that went to Diggs last year with minimal success will now go to Samuel. So he raises our floor in a number of ways.
Some people are getting way too caught up in worrying about his best spot in the formation. The #1 and only priority this offseason was adding legit starting caliber talent to the WR room. It's laughable that now the complaint is "the Bills are going to have TOO MANY receivers." There will be injuries, rotation, varying game plans focusing on different skillsets to beat different matchups. This is a regime that has regularly spent a lot of money on players 2-3 deep at every single spot on the DL. But for some fans doing the same at WR is an unspeakable sin. I can guarantee you right now the effect of Curtis Samuel on the roster will be much more than the combined effect of Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle on the roster. Beane's only mistake is that he waited this long to make the philosophical change.
If Beane next does the easy and obvious move and selects the best WR remaining with his 1st pick we will finally have the long awaited influx of talent that this group has desperately needed. If that leads to a player like Shakir getting less attention, all that means is he will also face more favorable matchups which can only a good thing.
I'm not sure they need another quality guy for 2024, but I won't argue the point. You may be right. And I certainly won't object if a quality starter shows up in the draft.
And I completely agree about the comparison with Shakir. With Diggs and Samuel on the field, Shakir will see more open space to work in. Samuel will make Shakir better, not vice versa.
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19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I agree. The Bills are going to be middle of the pack in terms of overall roster talent this year. But they have Josh. They are well coached and they play in a winnable division.
The last few years they have had a really solid all around roster that arguably just missed a difference maker or two. This year they still need a difference maker or two but they also have some holes to fill on the DL and in the secondary.
I agree, but I think thebholes are fillable. Safety is my biggest concern.
Difference maker might come out of the draft. Might not.
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I agree with Transplant, in part for a different reason. I think most fans over emphasize player talent and under emphasize coaching. In terms of team play, the Bills are one of the best coached teams in the league. It's coaching that puts them in the top five in the league.
Debating number 2 or 3 receivers makes little sense. Those guys are interchangeable and all will give you more or less the same production. Samuel has different strengths and weaknesses fro. Davis, but their contributions will be about the same. With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook there's more than enough talent for thw passing game. It's up to Brady.
In fact, across the whole lineup, most players are interchangeable. The talent in the league is really high, and one backup DT is more or less the same as the next. You just need your share of playmakers. Allen alone puts the Bills ahead of most teams when it comes to playmakers, and Diggs and Milano are in that category. Bernard, Miller, maybe Kincaid. Maybe the first round pick.
If Beane does a good job, he will get a starter in round 1. If it's a wideout, even better for the passing game. If it's an edge, great. Safety? Great. Center? Great.
McDermott doesn't make predictions, but he will be disappointed if the Bills win fewer than 12 games.
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17 hours ago, Mat68 said:
The game has evolved past x, z and slot. Samuel has the juice and skill set to play outside. The advance metrics points to him being very effective in that role. Diggs, Shakir and Samuel can line up anywhere. So can Kincaid and Cook.
In term of production I would point to his qbs. Carolina and Washington have had bad qbs. I expect Samuel in a steady role has a career year. He can do it all plus adds some of the gimmick plays and Debo Samuel stuff. If they take a Wr in the Top 60 picks Buffalo will have the best Wr room Allen has played with.
All of this makes sense to me. I liked Davis's size, and the Bills lost that, but they play so much with two tight ends that I think they have the size covered. Diggs, Knox, and Kincaid is enough in red zone, and Shakir or Samuel can be Beasley.
And I agree, a receiver in the first two rounds would make for a formidable receiver room.
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17 minutes ago, NewEra said:
I like the move. He’s a playmaker and has speed. We’re loaded underneath. Beane has been preaching RAC every offseason. Now he has it. Samuel, cook, kincaid, shakir are all explosive playmakers imo. Knox and Diggs aren’t too shabby either.
He’d be a fine signing for KC. I’m sure Veach has something up his sleeve.
He’s just not an X in many peoples opinion, mine included. He’s best in the slot and we already have a young up and coming slot playing on a rookie contract. We have limited resources and I can understand people preferring to invest resources to fill and immediate hole. Samuel is almost a luxury based on his skill set. Maybe those people are wrong and Samuel can fill the roll outside. Brady will just have to get creative. I suspect that we’ll be seeing some Mack Hollins playing more X than many think.
I just clicked in to see what people were saying about Samuel. I don't know the league personnel very well, and I have no real opinion about Samuel as a player. I'm sure I've seen him, but I don't remember any play he's ever made.
However, my opinion about the signing, as soon as I looked at his career stats, was what you said (in bold) above. This is a veteran receiver with physical skills (second round pick}. He has a lot of playing time. He must know the game.
What I'm hoping for, and expecting, out of Brady is some sophisticated route designs that attack weaknesses in defenses from week to week. What those play designs require is smart receivers, guys who can read defenses and adapt. I think Diggs is one of those, and I think Shakir is one. Kincaid looks like one, and Knox isn't bad either. I think Samuel is one.
And I think this is exactly the kind of guy that Reid likes on his team, a guy who can execute schemes with speed and who can catch the ball.
I don't know Xs from Ys and slot guys and all that, but I don't think the physical differences in guys is what matters in those positions. I think the modern passing game is largely about attacking the weaknesses in the defense, and that takes brains, not physique. I like this signing. And I don't think it means the Bills won't take a receiver in the first round. What Samuel does is eliminate the NEED to go receiver early. It gives Beane flexibility in the draft.
And I'll go back to the point Transplant made in his thread. This team is getting better. Dodson, Settle, Jackson are losses, but they can be and will be replaced. There'll still be some talent signed in free agency, and the draft will help.
I like this team.
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17 hours ago, Brandon said:
Well, the Giants DID get more production out of him over the last two years than the Bills did from Sherfield, Harty, Kumerow and Crowder combined.
That's because the Giants didn't have any productive receivers. He was a starter on that team, and never would have sniffed a staring spot with the Bills.
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Well, Transplant, I've gotta agree with you. I mean, it isn't a sure thing, but I think that a lot of people around here, if they're honest with themselves in December, are going to realize that they were too pessimistic.
I won't rehash all that you said, but I do want to comment on a few things.
First, the thing that has me worried the most are the safeties. The safeties play a really important role in this defense, and Poyer and Hyde were a magnificent combination. They were better than the sum of their parts, and I worry that they won't be replaced easily. Rapp didn't impress me the way Poyer and Hyde did; maybe he'll be better in his second year in the system, but he'll only be better if he has a good running mate back there. Whoever it is, it's not likely that they'll develop in one season the chemistry that Poyer and Hyde had. I hope I'm wrong, but that's the position that I think can hold back the progress of the team.
You didn't say much about the draft because, of course, we have no idea who's coming and what positions they'll play. I agree that Beane will use his excess picks to move up; I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with only 7 picks. What you didn't say, exactly, is that the Bills will add at least two, maybe 3, possibly 4 starters in the draft. Not starters in September, but significant contributors by December. First round guy is almost certainly going to play - Beane seems to have missed on Elam, but it isn't likely to happen again. We saw what Kincaid added by December last season, and if the Bills take a receiver, we can expect more of the same. Second round, last season the Bills got a starter who moved in right away, and the season before they got Cook, who by December had taken Motor's starting slot, effectively. A third or fourth round corner or safety easily could be playing later in the season. The point is, the Bills will be better because they're going to get some serious help at three or four positions.
Someone said the starting center isn't on the team yet, and I agree with that. But if he is on the team, I have a lot of confidence that Beane and Kromer know what they're doing.
I agree about Miller. Gunner says he's done, and Gunner's right a lot of the time, but I think it takes more than a year to recover from that injury, really recover.
Finally, like you, I have a lot of confidence in Brady. I think the offense is going to hum like we haven't seen in a few years. I agree that Diggs almost certainly played hurt for the second half of the season. He wasn't in a funk; he just stopped making the plays he usually made, and his body language said he was trying but just couldn't. I think Brady will get more out of Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, and whoever fills the #2 slot. I think the Bills will be explosive.
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6 hours ago, HappyDays said:
I was really hoping the Bills would use this offseason to get younger at every position, and cheaper at less important positions.
McDermott values leadership in every room. Oliver isn't the guy, at least not yet.
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1 hour ago, 90sBills said:
During the season you’d get more in depth discussions about different teams. The offseason is meant to give flowers to whoever won the superbowl. So if Bills are ever to win one I suspect many of us will tune in to the national shows the day after the superbowl until the start of the following season.Good point.
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26 minutes ago, Blank Stare said:
All fair points. Believe me, I realize the arguments against outweigh the fors at this point in his career. Effort is probably the one thing that would likely take him off Beane’s list completely anyhow (see Darcel Mareus). That said, I’m betting on traits here and a max 1-2 year deal for reasonable dough. I’d like our pass rushers to be guys that aren’t 107 years old for what feels like forever. If McD and Babich can’t salvage him, then I agree, just isn’t going to happen for him.
His 7.5 sacks last year, while not great, would’ve been third on the team behind Floyd and Oliver and one above Epenesa. All things equal, If I’m choosing between Young and Epenesa, I’d be more inclined to go with the guy with the better physical traits and higher ceiling.
I hear what you're saying, but I think you're right that he isn't on Beane's list. They've always said that effort, teamwork, work ethic are essential, and if you don't have that, you aren't playing for the Bills. Compare Young to Spencer Brown. Brown had a unique body and good athletic ability, but he wasn't all world at anything. They took him for the intangibles. That's the kind of upside they bet on - someone who's work ethic can make him an over-achiever. That's who Bernard is. And Milano. And Taron Johnson. Miller had the special physical traits AND the character stuff.
I can't see Young.
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2 hours ago, NickelCity said:
That said, in my phase of life I watch the games and frequent this forum, and that's it.
Me too.
There are some places where I should spend time - like, a part of me wishes I'd check into the Athletic and Cover 1 every few days, but I don't do that. As far as nationally, it's a joke. I suppose there are a few outlets that would keep me informed better than I am. I wasn't a big Peter King fan, but if you read him regularly you'd get some good, in-depth coverage of some part of what's happening with teams. But so much of what's out there is stuff written by people who are interested in the game, but don't have the time or the budgets to produce thoughtful stuff. They're just grinding stuff out, and in that situation it's hard not to just run with the conventional wisdom. So, you get, "Poyer, White, Morse. I know something about these guys. Wow, that's three big players. Bills are slashing the roster." Pretty uninformed stuff.
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8 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I also think I might be more willing to sign Tua long term if I was Miami, but in the NFC.The level of QB play is far inferior and just have to avoid going to Lambeau during the Playoffs so your warm weather QB doesn’t freeze.
That's a good point. I said a few days ago that so far as I'm concerned, Tua and Brock Purdy are the same guys. Smart guys who can run your offense, accurate throwers on the short and mid-range balls, QBs who can eat up opponents so long as the offense is running on schedule: Drop, one read, or two, and throw. The problem with them is that when you need your QB to make a play, rather than just run the offense, the six or ten plays when you're off schedule and you need help, Tua and Purdy are not your guy. Those guys, as you say, are all in the AFC. Interestingly, even Rodgers, if he has anything left, is in the AFC. NFC has Dak, who makes those plays but not consistently enough, and I don't know who else.
The only problem with this NFC theory is that the chances are that within a couple of seasons, some team or teams in the NFC will have gotten their guy in the draft, and once there are two or three in the NFC, Purdy no longer will look like a franchise guy, because he isn't going to be making the plays. So, even if I were in the NFC, I'm not sure I'd put big and long money into Tua.
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16 minutes ago, The 9 Isles said:
Any time I see anything about the Bills or Josh Allen almost immediately the Chiefs and Mahomes are brought into the conversation.
I just want my Bills news, I don’t want to continually be reminded of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and their Superbowls and how the Bills always lose to them and blah blah blah……
It is so aggravating that not only do they win but whenever my team is spoken about I need to hear all the superlatives about the crown prince and his team.
I will be using this board to curate my NFL news this offseason, thank you to all the contributors that wade through the mud of the NFL offseason.
I can’t wait until the Bills and JA win one and finally get all these people to STFU.
(carve out for Rich Eisen, he always has Buffalo’s back)
There's just no quality mass-market coverage of the NFL in the off-season, because there's really no large market for quality. All of the national media outlets can get away with all the generalities, platitudes, same old stuff. Audiences for some reason tune in for that stuff, and they really don't want to hear the in-depth stuff, which is just too detailed.
Take the Bills, for example. Since Beane went to work a few days ago, there's a lot to say about the Bills, but only people like us want to hear it. It's detailed, complicated, and not easy to explain in a sound bite. The general tv market isn't interested in a one-time half hour show about what's going on with the Bills salary cap. All that market wants to know about the Bills is Josh Allen, salary cap hell, the window, and maybe something about a wide receiver. And, as interested as I am in the Bills, I'm certainly not interested in 31 half-hour shows about the other teams.
The result is that there's nothing out there to look at, other than the people who are dedicated to covering the Bills. Chris Brown, Eric Wood, Steve Tasker, Cover One, a half-dozen journalists, either print, online, or podcasts. Other than those folks, we know more here than the national media.
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37 minutes ago, Sweats said:
The question that Miami has to consider, is Tua worth a mid to high contract?
I don't know what Miami is thinking, but I don't think of it that way. Yes, for any other position, the question is whether the player is worth the money. That is, if you're talking about a linebacker, is he the best LB in the league, and what does the best LB cost? Or is he the 10th best, and what's 10th best worth? If he's depth and he's the 50th best LB, what is that worth.
But for QB, I think the question is different. I think to a great extent, if you don't have a true franchise QB, you don't have anything. That is, I'm not interested in paying 10th best money to the 10th best QB, because the 10th best QB isn't a franchise QB. If I have the 10th best QB, I'm still looking for my QB. It's the position Washington was in and Minnesota now is in with Cousins.
So, from my point of view, Miami's question is whether they believe Tua is their franchise QB. If he is, then sign him up at whatever cost. If he isn't, signing him to a mid- to high- contract is a mistake, because they'll be stuck with that contract when they decide to move on from him in a year or two or three.
2 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:Allen needs to insist that Beane uses a portion of money saved from Allen restructuring on bringing in a top WR.
"Insist" may be too strong a word, but I would be amazed if Beane and McDermott haven't talked about WR with Allen. They certainly would like his input about what kind of receiver Allen sees as helping. And to some extent I'm sure Allen is saying to them, "Just figure out who we need to win." It's not like Allen's priority is a 5000-yard season or 50 TD passes. He wants to win the Super Bowl, and if they can win the Super Bowl running 35 QB sneaks a game, Allen will sign up for it.
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18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
People need to understand that Von needed to have some motive to agree to this. This incentive allows him to earn more than his previous contract and also gives the Bills a whole lot of CAP savings this year. If he gets all those sacks, we're on the hook next year and, frankly, Von is likely still on the team.
As others have pointed out, the incentive may have been that the Bills told him they would cut him, and his agent told him that his options in free agency would be limited, given the uncertainty about his recovery.
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10 hours ago, Yantha said:
The Patriots "window" was EIGHTEEN YEARS....
There is no such thing as a window. You either have a staff that can continually put the right players on the field or you do not.
No window.
I agree that if you have a QB, the window is always open.
But that doesn't mean there is no such thing as a window. In other sports GMs sometimes operate on a "window" theory, trying to accumulate a lot of young talent and winning a championship before it's time to renew the contracts of several players at significantly higher contracts. The Mariners had a window, for example, when they had Griffey Jr, A-Rod, and Randy Johnson. They weren't going to be able to keep them all, and they saw the window closing. Unfortunately, they didn't get through it before it closed.
In the NFL, the workings of the draft and the cap make discussions of windows less likely. The Dolphins and the Bengals have mini-windows, because they've both been playing with two number 1 receivers, which they could afford because one was on a rookie contract and because their QBs were on rookie contracts. Those windows are now closing, and the we'll have to see if those franchises have GMs and coaches who can in a more normal situation - high QB contract and only one number 1 receiver.
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2 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:
Only on TBD can the Bills lose Hyde, Poyer, White, Morse, Neal, Harty, Sherfield, trade Bates, lose Araiza to the Chiefs and sign Hack, Rapp, and Trubisky and be better than they was with no current replacements or money🤣🤣🤣. Btw other teams have draft picks too, and most of them have way more cap space including the Chiefs.
I'm pretty sure everyone except Bills fans see this as quite the set back, but carry on daydreaming
On average, a bit less than 50% of rosters turn over from season to season. Players come and go all the time. The success of teams is largely attributable to how they manage the change. The Bills roster has gotten better year over for the past five years. I expect we'll like the free agent deals, and we'll like the draft, and by July we won't be looking at any serious roster weaknesses, let alone holes.
Bills are fine. If the coaches do their jobs, the Bills will be in the playoffs and will perform well.
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14 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Not really. Their ceiling is Super Bowl champion.
I think that's the correct ceiling. They have been a preseason favorite to go deep in the playoffs for few years now, and nothing that's happened should change that. Josh, Diggs, Kincaid, and pretty much the whole offensive line is back. Defense has to replace a safety, a corner, and reshuffle the D line, with the best dlinemen, other than Jones, coming back. And Milano is coming back. There's no reason that we should expect the defense to be worse.
Ceiling is high. Everyone has a lot of work to do.
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10 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
There was a little walking back from what I heard on the radio today but they were pretty clear yesterday a source told them McGovern is moving to center.
I just wonder if Aaron Kromer is the source. Kromer has leaked stuff to reporters before back in Chicago.
That's an interesting theory. Not that I know him, but my sense of him is a real matter-of-fact guy who is pretty casual about things like that.
If I recall it correctly, there's some miscommunication and recommunication about Dorian Williams and middle linebacker.
I suspect McDermott's view is that every position is open for any solution and they aren't going to presuppose anything. And McDermott would rather that his coaches haven't formed an opinion yet. McDermott's challenge to the coaches is create competition and see who's good, and don't presuppose anything.
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I don't have expectations, beyond that the Bills will be good and in the playoffs. I think that's the team they are - this team will be good so long as owner-GM-HC stay together. How much more they will be, I have no expectations. If it comes together well, they can win the Super Bowl. If it doesn't, well, they'll fall short.
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1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
One thing that I found odd about all of this was the report that McGovern was moving to center. Why release that information? It just was odd to me? I mean the Bills have suspended reporters for releasing lineup information at training camp. This one is odd.
That's a good point. Probably someone made a mistake.
Or here's a theory. They don't know who's playing guard or center. McGovern is a possibility. Getting the word out lets everyone know the Bills are in the market for either. If they didn't say it, people would assume the Bills have high need at center and none at guard. THis gives them options. Just a guess.
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1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:
This team was always going to look a lot different in 2024.
That's true in a lot of ways. They signed Miller to be an impact player in 22 and 23 and hoped for the best after that. The writing was on the wall for Poyer and Hyde, although the timing was still unclear. Diggs would be in his prime, and they'd have Davis on a cheap contract. And remember, Edmunds was the start of the parade out the door.
2024 was always going to be like this. But as others have said, it just doesn't look to be too bad. The offense needs two players - a center or guard and a receiver. The defense needs a safety and probably a corner, although Douglas, Benford, Elam is a very nice fallback plan There are some things that would be nice, but that aren't essential. That's five players, with a tight but manageable cap budget and a boatload of picks.
Beane will get Brady a receiver, and rest will be up to him. McDermott will get the defensive backfield together, and the Bills will be a contender.
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37 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
No. Reason is they took on dead cap to release them. They’re gone.
I'm cap ignorant. Can you explain this? I thought when the Bills cut a guy, they took the cap hit, and the guy became a free agent. As a free agent, he's free to sign with any team, but there's an additional cap consequence if he goes back to his former team?
Or did you just mean that once the franchise takes the hit, it's making a commitment to getting younger at the position, so they actually don't want the guy back? Frankly, I'm expecting that the Bills will bring in a veteran free agent to start at some position, safety, center, even guard, really anyplace up and down the lineup. So, if it were Morse that they needed for a year, you think the Bills wouldn't be interested?
I'm not challenging what you said; just trying to understand what you meant.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I hope you are right and a light just suddenly comes on. I don't see it though.
But he might never have the potential to start for five years for this team in this defense. I think he is more like Jerry Hughes than Wyatt Teller. Hughes could have stayed in Indianapolis for 5 years longer and not broken out the way he did for the Bills because his skillset wasn't fitting what he was being asked to do.
Hey, Gunner. I was rereading this, and I hadn't really focused on the Hughes comparison. I can really see that. Hughes had an interesting skill set, but he wasn't well suited to playing the more button-down style McDermott wants from his edges. Playing that style limited the things that he did best. Hughes wasn't able to make explosive plays in that defense.
Even though we've seen only a little of Elam, we've seen enough to see that playing with the discipline McDermott requires limits his ability to make plays.
Compare him to Tre White, for example. White was good enough to be a true cover corner, but when he played with the discipline required by the defense, his cover skills aren't lost. That same thing is what the Bills got from Poyer and Hyde, and from Johnson. They're all guys with ability to make big plays AND play the scheme. That's also what's expected from the linebackers - run the defense, but make plays, too.
That's what Elam has to do, and we haven't seen that from him yet. And that was Hughes's struggle, too. The difference is that Hughes was still a net plus on the field, but Elam has generally been a minus. Elam has to make a leap this summer. I can see that now.
CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position. I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs.
What?
First, look at the Chiefs. Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44. They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers.
Then look at the Lions. St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs.
The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems.
Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver. It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league. Samuel, for example. There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players. The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute. And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league. Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch.
So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value. A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills.
Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1. Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense.
So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now. If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction.