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Straight Hucklebuck

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Posts posted by Straight Hucklebuck

  1. Think about what we’ve seen in the history of the game and then think what we’ve from Allen in TD output in 2020-2023.

     

    2020 he was 37 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing. 

    2021 he was 36 TDs passing, 6 TDs rushing. 

    2022 he was 35 TDs passing, 7 TDs rushing.

     

    In the history of the league, what QB has thrown for 40 TDs year after year? That’s a hard bar to clear in itself.

     

    Isolated years Brady goes for 50, Mahomes goes for 50, Manning went for 55, Marino went for 48, Brees 46 and 43 in back to back year, Favre’s best was 38 & 39.

     

    So with that historical context, I’d say it’s likely Allen is not going to get much more than 35-37 TDs, with one caveat.

     

    We know he doesn’t go all out on film or physical conditioning, especially in the off-season. That’s the one door he can try to open, getting into the best shape of his life, working mechanics constantly with Palmer, studying film. 
     

    If he commits to more work, he might be able to squeeze another 1/2 level out and get over 40 TDs passing in a single year. 
     

    Diggs is 30, so could/will the Bills commit to getting Allen another top-flight WR before Diggs ages out? I guess that’s a second lever. 
     

  2. 7 hours ago, Beck Water said:

     

    The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks).  They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts.

    So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot.

     

    But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data

     

    image.thumb.png.4928a894ea0d317a5699cf7043ccad50.png

    (click to enlarge)

     

    These data are sorted by W, then PF.  % use (pass attempts + rush attempts)

     

    We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%.  The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%.

     

    A couple things stand out to me.  One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them.

     

    Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players.

     

    Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward.  Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

    The standard game in my mind is 40 pass attempts, 20 rushing attempts. 
     

    So at most it would be 35 passing attempts, 25 rushing attempts.

     

    But thats a lot considering the breakdown would be Cook at 15, Murray at 5-7, and Johnson at 3-5. 
     

  3. 10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

     

    I would suspect those red zone percentages got skewed last year with so many long TD passes by Allen meaning many of those drives never made it to the red zone because they scored before they ever got there. Seems disingenuous to  try and spin it like it was something bad in terms of red zone percentage.

    Yup you’re right. 
     

    Disingenuous intentionally on my part.

     

    By all means you’re right, let’s get Dorsey back.

  4. 33 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

    Step 1: fire McDermott amd all offensive staff.

    2. Hire an offensive minded HC implementing a WCO.

     

    Here here!

     

    Signed. 

     

    Not every process can be driven to 100% yield.

     

    What are the odds that McDermott conducts a thorough search for an OC and gets a cutting edge mind in here?

     

    The best OCs are going to land Head Coaching positions.

     

    Thanks Sean for all your contributions. 
     

    Holding onto 4-5 in the Playoffs and a 2017 Playoff birth is not aggressive enough. 

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  5. 23 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

    No idea who the caller was, I gave the f*** up, and shut the dumb s*** off about 06:45, just pulling into the parking lot.  Air in the car was tinted blue from my profanity. 🙄😁

    Yup that was Larry.

     

    He starts every call with asking about the hosts kids and mentioning that he’ll be at one of the live sets as if he’s friends with the hosts. 
     

    My favorite are the callers who say “how’s it going” after horrific losses. 
     

    Just do what I do and say “hey guys” and then get right to the point. 

  6. Josh needs to put in the off-season work.

     

    I said it last year before the season ended, got shouted down, but Joe Marino this morning said it again: 

     

    His off-seasons are drinking until he passes out, golf and Hollywood partying.

     

    Listening to all his Kyle Brandt interviews was disappointing.

     

    I think we have a Ben Roethlisberger/Brett Favre type worker.

     

    Josh’s consecutive start streak is testament to his toughness and not a small accomplishment. 
     

    But he doesn’t condition himself in the off-season, and has said he doesn’t over indulge in film. 
     

    You want that intersection of talent and preparation and you’re just not getting it with Josh.

     

    Does he really want to be great? I think his attitude suggests that he thinks “he’s the greatest athlete in the world” who can just show up in July and dominate. 

     
     

    In terms of the staff, I think we will need an open interview with multiple minds at offensive coordinator.


    One thing that everyone who dissects the All-22 agrees on is that the Bills scheme is not creative. While checkdowns are available on every passing play to the flats, everything else are basic plays, and you’ve heard multiple corners who have intercepted passes say the same thing - we knew what was coming and baited Josh Allen into the throw. 

     

    Dorsey seemed to have set plays to beat certain coverages that he called over and over and over and over again. If we get this, we call this, if we see this we call that. And he also was overly concerned about not sticking with one thing too much even if it was working. Every week the offense felt like it was get more and more condensed East to West and North to South.

     

    I defended him for awhile last year because he played high level football, was the starting QB on one of the best college teams of all time, and had a good career in the NFL as a coach. Not an over the hill OC (Frank Reich, Norv Turner type) and not a 29 year old OC who had 1.5 years as an offensive quality control coach. Dorsey simply showed he can’t compete at the highest levels of scheme and get his offense to execute. Firing him was the right decision because there was zero evidence this funk was going to end. 
     

    I caught some of the Ben Johnson interview and he said they have a team of coaches upstairs who are constantly thinking of ideas to add formation variations into the offense. 
     

    With Dorsey out of the building, and no dedicated QB Coach now, that’s one less offensive mind in the room to combat the defensive coordinators. 
     

    The logical path is to fire McDermott and get a better/smarter staff in here. Do we need to hold onto McDermott as the HC/DC when we’ve seen his defense give up leads to the Patriots and Broncos, while also coming within a whisker of blowing the Giants and Bucs games?
     

    No. We know it’s not going to be good enough in the Playoffs and 30+ points will be scored on us. 
     

     

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  7. 18 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

    A caller to the morning show spent so much time setting up his call that I yelled "GET TO THE F****** POINT!" as I was parking in the hospital lot.  They frown upon such conduct. 😞

    Let me guess - Larry in South Florida,

     

    They gave him like 6 minutes and he just rambled. 

    • Haha (+1) 1
  8. 1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

     

    You're preaching to the choir here.  

     

    As you've heard me opine many times, McD's treated this team as his own FFL defensive unit.  

     

    He may have been a better hire before we got Allen.  But the moment that Allen arrived, he simply wasn't a proper fit.  It's cost us.  

     

    The interesting thing is that the direction that this team is going in now was predictable.  I didn't expect for it to be as bad as it now is at this point of the season, but the notion that fan and media opinion would swing away from McD this season had a good reason to be suspected would occur, and it has.  

     

    If Pegula wants to salvage anything out of Allen, he'd better make a switch following the season.  

     

    On spotrac it shows that Allen's contract has an out after the '25 season, so after two more seasons.  I suspect that that's an out either for him or for both parties.  Either way, while I never dreamed that he'd exercise that, now I have my doubts if things don't change at the top.  

     

    And perhaps I'm off on his having the ability to get out, maybe it's just for the team, but there's an "Out" in it.  

     

     

    Yup, I've thought the same thing. 

     

    In every interview he talks about how there is nothing to do in Buffalo. 

     

    So there has to be an urgency in getting players around this guy and building an offense. 

     

    We have to make up for lost drafts (Basham, Elam) and contracts (Von Miller) and have a true search for an OC in the offseason. 

  9. 3 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

    Cook has fumbled 3 times on 254 touches.

     

    Davis is a 52% career completion success rate.

     

    Help me make sense of your statement and those numbers.

    Par for the course for old Sean. 

     

    Last year near the end he was talking about still figuring out who Kaiir Elam was and what he's good at. 

     

    Whatever McDermott. 

  10. 14 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

    Like I've said before in this forum, I'd bet that a lot of players are just in it for a paycheck....we've seen the lack of preparation, failure of execution, and lack of fire, time and time again this year, right? You think they care if McD "throws them under the bus?" Will they work even less than they are doing  now? LOL

     

    And that's if they even know what he said at his presser (or any presser, all year long). You think these guys jump on twitter (or wherever else they publish these lengthy pressers) at night and watch what McD, or Beane, or anyone else says to the media? I highly, highly doubt the latter happens. If I was a player, I know I wouldn't waste my free time watching those pressers.

     

    THEY ARE GETTING PAID MILLIONS for half a year's work, and that's all that matters. You know that 99% of them have ZERO loyalty to a town, a team, or a fanbase, and will jump to another team in a heartbeat for more money, right?

    Well Allen takes every chance he can to remind everyone how there is nothing to do in Buffalo. 

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