Buddy Hix
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Posts posted by Buddy Hix
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21 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Looking at the graphs, the data discusses changes in the rankings; they do not from what I can tell assess whether or not they are positive or negative changes, nor did he provide any statistics to claim whether differences were real or not. I review a ton of scientific manuscripts for publications, and when they get rejected it is mostly because of faulty study design or data analysis. This study looks like it falls in that category.
You claimed the only guy to improve from his first or second year was Brees. Just for the heck of it I picked a guy that some compare Allen to early in his career: Favre. And if you look at Favre second and third seasons he improved. Others have mentioned guys like Stafford and others. So to me you are way overstating your case.
I also question why you chose the construct of just year 2 to year 3. Another good example of extending the time of analysis would be a guy you saw today: Cousins. Took him quite a while and some failures to finally win s big game. Sometimes you have to experience the lows to get to the highs. The random nature of the data showed in the study you cite after year 3 also suggests that.
None of us know what Allen will or will not become. But if you’re trying to suggest that the Bills should move on from Allen now because he can’t get better next year or after, your data just doesn’t show that.
My suggestion was that it will be difficult for Allen to improve next season as much as he did this season, but it's obviously possible, especially considering his lack of snaps in college. I would think anybody suggesting that we move on from Allen is just sore about yesterday or trolling or an idiot. Allen looks like his floor is still enough to be a starter in this league, I just worry his ceiling is limited to an Alex Smith. We'll see how he does with another off season against a much tougher schedule.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Yes they did.
I think the point we were discussing was Allen's ability to take another leap from year 2 to year 3, correct? Show me the leaps your talking about in the data below. Ryan (top) was pretty much the same QB all three seasons. Did Ryan have marginal improvements from year 2 to 3, sure. Are we looking for Allen to marginally improve his 45 QBR? No, I think Allen needs significant improvement next year. Allen is below average in virtually every passing metric for QBs.
Newton (bottom) is similar to Ryan, showing 2 to 5% improvements in both ratings year over year over year. Again, not what we were talking about.
Stafford did show a great improvement from year 2 to 3 but I would attribute that to his injury in year two where he missed 13 games, lol. This falls more inline with the thinking that a QBs significant improvement zone is between years 1 and 2. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns
We are all hoping for a big leap from Allen next year, but don't pretend it's a common occurrence.
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2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
Show me data to prove your point then. But you won’t. So your opinion has no more or less value than anyone else.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns
Not sure why I keep engaging with a guy who is incapable of discussing topics in an earnest fashion, but here we are.
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8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
You made up an artificial construct and provided no data at all to back up your conclusion. So your opinion is no better or worse than mine.
We were discussing improvements of QBs from year 2 to year 3, as that is what we are all looking for in Allen. You chimed in that Watson showed improvements from year 1 to year 3, which is A) irrelevant to what we were talking about and B) not even true as his rating and QBR both declined.
As I stated, your comprehension skills are sorely lacking. But keep telling every poster that they are wrong, it suits you.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
But they all got better in year 3. Right?
No
1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:I would say Watson was better this year than two years ago. And several others have already been listed. So you’re wrong.
We were discussing improvements from year 2 to year 3...so you're wrong and also not great at comprehension.
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Your hope is admirable, and I mean that sincerely. I'm less convinced than you that the team is set up for success in the future. While it's impossible to argue that the team showed progress, it's hard to gauge where the team stands relative to the elite teams. Improving from last year's stripped down team was inevitable, so I don't want to hang my hat on that achievement. Also, the schedule this year was so soft that I find it hard to gauge where this team is. You give them credit for hanging in a playoff game with Houston, but Houston isn't a good team, they had a negative point differential this season. This season was great fun but it could all be smoke and mirrors.
Next season will be a much better indicator about the trajectory of this team as the schedule is brutal. Too bad the season is 8 months away, I want answers now!
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16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Matt Ryan. Matt Stafford. Cam Newton.
Just off the top of my head.
Ryan had a second year slump, his first year was similar to his third year.
Stafford was injured his second year and only had 13 starts before his breakout season.
Newton was pretty much the same guy in all three of his years, ratings are all within 4 points of each other.
I'll save you time, the only answer is Drew Brees. That's how rare it is to improve after two seasons of starting as a QB. I like Allen but he isn't going to be a superstar, imo. I think the ceiling is being slightly above average, essentially a game manager.
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Do you agree Josh improved significantly year 1 to year 2? If the answer is no then we will never agree. If the answer is yes then the question is why do you presume he can't take another leap?
It is not certain he does. He could stall like Mariota and Winston did at this point. He could regress like Trubisky. Or he could keep growing. All scenarios are on the table.
Not many QBs take a step forward in year 3...
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2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:
Sorry, but I can't buy that thinking.
You're an optimist, so I completely understand. And you could even point to McD's more aggressive approach this season as evidence that he can change. But I see yesterday as proof that when the chips are down, McD will resort to being an incompetent game manager.
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1 minute ago, Buddy Hix said:
Pretty much...he's the same guy who punted in OT against the Colts two years ago. But in that game we got lucky, which is the only path to victory with a coach like McD.
I shouldn't say the only path...Beane has been pretty awesome, so I can see a scenario where our cap room and draft picks allow us to build a team that is so much better than our competition that McD can actually just bully his way to victory, which is what he wants to do.
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Just now, Joe in Winslow said:
So you completely discount McDermott being able to grow and evolve?
Pretty much...he's the same guy who punted in OT against the Colts two years ago. But in that game we got lucky, which is the only path to victory with a coach like McD.
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7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:
Speaking of not seeing the forest for the trees: what's your miracle succession plan?
There is no basis for a succession plan. Despite being fatally flawed, McD is a great leader and culture builder, he will rightfully get at least two more years as HC. I'm just saying that while our position may seem enviable to other teams, there is reason to think that our coach's limitations have already doomed us to never succeed, which is not all that enviable.
I think how this plays out is we miss the playoffs next year, as our schedule is way tougher, and then McD is on the hot seat the following season. I expect us to be looking for a HC in two years.
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29 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:
Who'd you rather be a fan of today? The Bills or:
The Patriots?
The Jets?
The Fish?
And that's just in our division. I'd rather be in OUR position than any of theirs.
OK, too small of a sample size for you? Well, how about we widen our search to the broader AFC as a whole:
Ravens?
Bengals?
Browns?
Steelers?
Texans?
Titans?
Colts?
Jaguars?
Chargers?
Raiders?
Broncos?
Chiefs?
Even on THAT list, I'd probably only want to swap places with the Chiefs, MAYBE the Ravens (based on coaching alone), and possibly the Titans. That's it. By my reckoning, the Bills' situation is better than TWELVE other AFC teams, which puts them in a really sweet spot at the moment. I know that spewing bile and raw emotion is all the rage these days and that logic and reason take a back seat more often than not. But if you look at the REALLY big picture, the Bills are in a pretty good place today with Beane and McDermott. Blowing all of it up would be a blunder of EPIC proportions.
The blunder of epic proportions was losing to the Texans...which I blame on a coaching staff who are completely inept at managing a game.
While your point is appreciated, you fail to address the one glaring issue: McD has a ceiling. We have witnessed McD's inability to competently manage a game all too often, with yesterday being the peak of that mountain by being outcoached by Bill O'Brien (omg!). If you want to start threads like this then you have to address the reality of our situation, that McD is fatally flawed. With McD at the helm, the Bills will have to overcome his incompetence every season, it won't be enough to simply be better than other teams (as we saw yesterday). The Bills will have to be better and get lucky....We are not is some great situation relative to other teams. We have an inept coach who will only succeed in spite of himself.
Next year, when the luck of having a cupcake schedule is gone, we will not be singing the praises of a guy who can't see the forest through the trees.
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I wouldn’t say Daboll cost the Bills the division, but I do agree that Daboll isn’t doing a good job. The offense upgraded tons of positions and only marginally improved. I really don’t understand all the love for Daboll or think he’s a HC candidate.
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I have only been to Green Bay and Cleveland, but I don’t like the idea of a disjointed tailgate. I enjoy having the entire area surrounding the stadium being one big party. The out of town games I went to had crappy tailgates.
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Congrats everyone! Such an amazing feeling to see that pick to get 10 wins. I can’t wait to celebrate at New Era in two weeks!
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I’m so annoyed at McD for playing like a wimp to end the 1st half. Not the tone to set...imo
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I just can't understand people talking about the Pats game....Pittsburgh is no joke and we play them on the road.
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Damn! I was going to make the drive and be at work the next day. Hope it stays put! I have no vacation time left.
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Thank you! Cheers everyone. See you at Hammers in 10 days. I’ll bring the venison pepperettes!
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Please Turkey Gawd....give us a stop. I will never hunt turkey again (in the fall).
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We were up 13-7 at half the last Super Bowl against Dallas....
but this time, DALLAS IS GOING DOWN, GARY!
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***** Haush money!
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3rd and long...need a stop.
New Orleans Saints in Court
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Didn’t Brees align with some Pro Life org too this year?