Adam727
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Posts posted by Adam727
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If you go back to December, many mock drafts had Rosen going either #1 to the Browns or #2 to the Giants. At that time some mocks had Allen as a borderline 1st rounder.
I am usually not a fan of prospects who's stock rises late in the process because they test well at the combine. I'll take the player that was ranked highest originally due to his performance on the field.
With QBs particularly I am not a fan of QBs that haven't put it together yet but have "size" or "potential". That seems not to work out way more often than it does. I am also not a fan of QBs who struggle with accuracy.
I guess it comes down to I think to play in the NFL, being a good football player is more important than how tall or strong you are. And Allen's performance on the field in college was not as impressive as the other top 4 QBs. How many times in his career is Josh Allen going to need to throw the ball 60 yards into the wind? I'll take a QB who can only throw a ball 40 yards into the wind if he's completing 10% more of his passes.
But Allen is our QB now so hopefully everything in this post is completely wrong!
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56 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:
By the time the second round is done we’ll have two draft picks....just like most teams. Except both ours came in Round One. What’s wrong with that?
Essentially we traded a chance at Watson/Mahomes last year, +1st rd pick, +2nd rd pick, Cordy Glenn, Sammy Watkins, and Tyrod Taylor for Josh Allen and Edmunds. That looks like we just made the team worse as opposed to better. But if Beane is right and Allen becomes a franchise QB that is much better than Watson/Mahomes/Rosen then it won't matter how many players & picks we got rid of to draft him. If he's only slightly better than Watson/Mahomes/Rosen then clearly we gave up too much. And if he's worse.. then Beane will be some other team's problem in 2 years.
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BPA but preferably a Center or Guard. Someone else suggested trading it for a higher 2019 pick. Not sure if that was serious or not but I really like that idea even though there's no way it happens.
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F+
I tried to brace myself for the Bills picking Allen over Rosen but it still stung. What's worse is that Beane thought Allen was at least 3 day 2 picks better than Rosen, which is the minimum of what Beane must have been offering when they started trying to trade up to pick 4 or 5. This has me questioning Beane as a GM if he's willing to spend that much draft capital just to not run the risk of winding up with Rosen over Allen.
We also ended up drafting the player that virtually everyone had mocked to the Bills. The player we have been hearing rumors about for weeks being the Bills trade up target at 5, 6, or 7. The fact that this is EXACTLY what happened has me wondering how/why the front office made their plans so public. They seem worse at keeping things private and in-house than Rex/Whaley. The way the draft fell, if everyone didn't know how badly the Bills wanted Allen he likely would have dropped right to the Bills at 12. Allen at 12 would still have not been my first choice, but it would have been better than Allen at 7.
AND we overpaid on the trade up by a Mile. It cost us 2 2nds to move up from 12 to 7, but only cost the Cardinals a 3rd and a 5th to move up from 15 to 10 for Rosen.
AND we have a project QB again. So if Allen's size doesn't suddenly make him accurate or able to read defenses at the next level and he becomes the next Bills QB to bust, we will likely miss on additional franchise QBs in 2019 and 2020 while we are waiting to see what we have in Allen.
It's nice that we came away from the 1st round with a LB addressing a position of need (hence the + in F+), but the fact that we traded the pick we got for TT to move up and get a LB at 16 when he or someone similarly talented were probably going to be there at 22 makes that less exciting too. Beane first seems too willing to give away top tier established talent for draft picks, and then is too willing to give away those draft picks away on draft day. (The same way he's willing to get rid of players like Glenn/Watkins/Dareus for cap reasons but then is ok paying above market prices for players like Star & Chris Ivory.) Trading up for a LB (a position that is arguably the easiest position to find in Free Agency, where we just let the leading tackler in the NFL go to a division rival on a 1 yr $4mil contract) makes me think Beane isn't any better than Whaley at valuing/assembling a roster.
I thought Beane was going to be the anti-Whaley. (I was unsure of his ability to evaluate talent but was expecting him to be excellent at valuing/assembling a roster) At the moment it looks like Beane is just as bad as Whaley at assembling a roster, only without Whaley's eye for evaluating talent.
We blew up this roster in exchange for this draft (the picks used to draft Allen alone cost us Sammy Watkins (a #1 WR), Cordy Glenn (a franchise LT), an additional 2nd and the possibility to draft Watson/Mahomes last year. ) And all we got for our 5 picks in the top 65 was Josh Allen and a linebacker.
In two years, on paper we've gone from a playoff caliber roster to a roster that on paper looks like one of the worst few teams in the NFL. I have no faith in our new QB (though will wait with the rest of you for the next few years hoping I'm wrong) and I have no faith in our new GM. This was by far my least favorite Bills draft ever in my 25 years following this team. (A distinction previously held by the draft in 2004, which is the only other draft I can ever remember being upset when it was over)
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If they're picking 1, and the pick is finalized already why can't they just announce it??
I'm starting not to like the Browns... (unless they draft Josh Allen at #1, then all is forgiven!)
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If the Bills give up 12, 22, & 65 to get Allen AND Rosen falls to the Cardinals at 15, tomorrow is going to be very depressing.
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For a while I couldn't tell if it was better for the Browns to select Darnold or Allen based on the reports that NYG will take Darnold at 2.
But i'm convinced it's best if the Browns take Allen. There's no guarantee the Giants will take Darnold. And it guarantees the Bills can't take Allen. And if by some chance the Browns take Allen and the Giants don't take Darnold, it guarantees either Mayfield or Rosen will be there at 6 where the colts are rumored to be looking to trade back where it won't cost that much to move up.
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Smallish WRs drafted in round 1 don't seem like they've been working out well in recent years in the NFL. I like the idea of a WR at 22, but the only WR I'd take there is Sutton and he's probably off the board before then anyway.
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I'd rather see the Bills trade down than select either, but I'd rather see them draft Jackson than Allen.
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Allen at 5 has me nervous and is what I would consider to be the worst possible scenario on Thursday. (Aside from Allen at 2 but I don't think that will happen) If Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield are gone by 5 I'd rather the Bills wait and pick a QB at 12.
I read somewhere today that the only 1st round QBs the Bills have ever drafted (aside from Jim Kelly) are JP Losman and EJ Manuel. It seems almost cruel to start that cycle again with a big, athletic QB, great combine numbers, major accuracy issues but lots of "potential". We've already had to go through that twice in the past decade or so, both times missing on multiple great QB prospects in future years while we waited for our guy to develop. Only this time it would probably cost us 2 1sts and a 2nd to get to pick 5.
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I will be happy with anyone they pick as long as it's not Josh Allen or Mason Rudolph and as long as it doesn't cost us a 2019 1st round pick to trade up.
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I'm really not worried about the Pats/Saints trading up. No way either team is giving up that many high draft picks when they are able to compete for a championship right now.
I'm nervous the Dolphins might move up for Rosen or that the Cardinals might jump ahead of us to grab a QB. If anyone else trades up into the top 11 it only helps us because I don't see any other team moving up for a QB.
It would be depressing for a second to see the screen flash "TRADE "at pick 5 or 6 only to find out a few minutes later that it's some other team moving up for Chubb or Nelson.
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22 minutes ago, mattstev said:
What if everything goes against us and we miss the top 4 qbs or don't want to trade up for the one that's left. If we were not going to take a qb with our first pick this draft, what should we do?
Is there anyone else you would trade up for if they were sliding to 8-10, or who would you want to see drafted at 12.
I personally would love if Nelson were slipping to move up a couple picks and grab him. I don't think that's likely but there is a decent chance either he or one of the elite lb's (Edmunds, Smith) will fall a bit.
Hopefully this doesn't happen. If it does, I'd like to see the Bills trade back as many times as possible for as many 1st round picks in 2019 as possible. I know this won't be a popular idea, but the Bills have a ton of draft capital. Given that each draft pick next year is worth 1 round less than picks from this year, if the Bills traded down in exchange for 2019 draft picks they could do what Cleveland just did and own the draft for the next few years and get a QB next year.
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5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:
Ah, spring. Just days before the draft, when a Bills fan's thoughts turn to franchise quarterbacks.
It's a given we will be taking one high, likely with a trade up. And of course the expectation is that QB will start immediately and be great.
But deep down we all know how this will play out. The fanbase is divided over who to take, even if we picked first. And whoever falls to us will be considered a consolation prize and a sign that Beane got cold feet with his trade up offers.
But we will end up with someone. And it's likely they will be uneven. Some good things, some bad. Opinions will be formed in OTA's and camp. Some will panic. Some will defend him.
So my question is how long do we fans give our new franchise QB before we start talking about the 2019 draft?
I would give any rookie QB a minimum of 3 years before declaring him a bust. But I'd be looking for a viable plan B as early as the 2019 draft if I didn't like what i saw in 2018. I'd rather waste a pick on a 2nd QB that we don't end up needing (and can trade later) than wasting 3 years if we end up drafting another JP Losman / EJ Manuel.
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A lot can still change before now and the start of the season. But as of right this second I think the Jets/Dolphins/Bears are probably worse than us. But on paper the Bills look like they are in contention for a top 5 draft pick next year.
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From a salary cap perspective it would make sense. He's on the wrong side of 30 and this roster is a mess. Shady will be 32-33 which is ancient by RB standards by the time this roster is possibly ready to compete for anything. On the other hand if we have no O-line, no RB, and no WRs it will be tough to figure out what we have in whatever QB we draft.
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No way. I wouldn't even give up that much for Darnold/Rosen. If that's the cost to move up I'd rather stick with McCarron and try to earn the #1 pick next year the old fashioned way.
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I can't stop checking this thread and can't even decide if I want this to be legit or not...
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20 hours ago, KzooMike said:
A miss would mostly likely leave us out of the playoffs for a few years as the QB is given every opportunity. It seems crazy to think a GM/HC who have shown very positive things early could just as easily be on the hot seat two or three years from now with a miss. Overblowing it or do you agree?
If the Bills take a QB at 12 and miss, I don't think that's necessarily it for Beane/McD, but it definitely could be. If they trade up to 2 and miss on a QB (essentially trading Glenn, Watkins, Darby, plus multiple 1sts/2nds for a QB and whiffing) I can't see this front office lasting beyond next year.
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10 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:
You are building a troll army. What will your new legion of trolls be called? How do you enlist?
Pretty soon he will have a "Legion Of Trolls". Maybe his hat factory is really a Russian troll farm?
Are there any rules against trolling / making multiple accounts that could get him kicked from the board by a moderator?
It was one thing when he just stuck to his own thread but now he's ruining all of them.
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If this happens, I'd like to see the Bills trade down from 12, swap picks with someone looking to move up to grab one of the skill position players that fell in exchange for a 1st next year. If there's no QB worth taking at 22, then trade down again. Maybe swap #22 for a 2nd this year and a 1st next year. Use one of the 3rd round picks on a QB prospect like Falk, use the other 5 picks in the 1st 3 rounds to build the roster, and have 3 1st round picks to use on a QB next year. It would suck for this year but it wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen to this team.
IMO the worst case QB scenario is the Bills trade a boatload of picks for #2 and they select Allen.
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I tried to come up with my list before reading the thread and couldn't even come up with 10.
1) Kyle Williams
2) McCoy
3) Tre White
4) K. Benjamin
5) Hyde
6) Poyer
7) Hauschka
8) Clay
9-53 = ?? Hughes & Dawkins for 9 & 10 maybe. but Hughes's production has not been great for what he is paid and Dawkins hasn't played a full 16 games yet.
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6 hours ago, Derby Dan said:
They are in talks with the Browns for their fourth round pick and they will snag with Allen or Mayfield. My source tells me we are trying to trade up with the Giants and if that does not work out, they will go after the Browns pick
I'll take bets on this one!
Based on the value chart plus the premium the Jets paid that would cost the Pats something along the lines of 3 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick at a minimum to move up to get Allen or Mayfield when they have maybe 1-3 years left to win with Brady? Plus there's the fact that the Belichick won't deal with the Browns. Maybe they can throw in Brady/Gronk too to make absolutely sure they're able to land the 3rd or 4th best QB prospect in the draft?
The only way the Pats draft Mayfield or Allen at 4 is if teams 4-22 all decide simultaneously to forfeit their picks.
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IMO the 2018 season is over in terms of making the playoffs. But that was a long shot even before the retirements of Wood/Richie. But personally I don't care what the Bills record is in 2018 if they come away with a Franchise QB.
Rank the Bills Remaining Areas of Need.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
1) QB
2) WR
3) Guard
4) Center
5) Slot Corner
6) Another Guard
7) Right Tackle
D-line looks good. LBs look ok for this year. Secondary is one player away from being good. Offense needs a LOT of help