Adam727
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Posts posted by Adam727
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Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way.
When Beane got here we weren't a great team. Then we were a fringe playoff team that I did not expect would have a chance against teams like KC. The last two years I think Beane closed the talent gap and the Bills are as good (or almost as good) as any team in the AFC.
Everyone remembers two years ago for 13 seconds.. the single thing I'll remember it for above all else is we lost to a coin toss.
Last year, despite major injuries at important positions all across the roster, the Bills held their own destiny to the #1 spot and lost it due to no fault of anyone's when their teammate almost died on the field.
I think maybe the first round of the playoffs you can get a bye or get lucky and play a team like NE that didn't deserve to be there. But after that I view the last two playoff games and superbowl as almost coin tosses no matter how good you are. At that point you're playing against equally good teams and anyone can beat anyone on any given day.
Maybe I'm being too much of a homer but I think the Bills already have the talent to win it all and Beane's focus should shift a little to making sure he keeps that window open for as long as possible because some of it comes down to luck and the best way to defend against that is to give the team as many opportunities as possible.
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I don't think Beane did anything wrong in drafting Edmunds. You can't re-sign everybody. I don't blame him for not extending Edmunds in year three either.
I was pounding the table last year though pushing for an Edmunds trade. We could've used the draft pick to draft a replacement, and it would've freed up a ton of much needed cap space for this year.
I think Beane is about to do the same thing with Ed Oliver that he did with Edmunds. Another great player that the Bills absolutely can not afford next year. So why not trade him now and free up $11mil in cap space.
Beane is a very good GM. In my opinion the single best we've had since I became a Bills fan. But sometimes I think he keeps a player 1 year too long when the goal should be if anything to get rid of players 1 year too early. Especially now that we have a franchise QB contract and need to be more diligent with cap space.
Next year we're 18 million over the cap, need to add two draft classes and 10-12 players to the roster at vet minimum so basically 30+mil over the cap before signing Daquan Jones, Hyde, Davis, or Oliver. And there are no Allen/Miller/Diggs restructures this time. Anyone disappointed that we lost Edmunds this year might be REALLY disappointed in the next 1-2 years. IMO Hines/Settle/Neal/Oliver all should've been gone this year so we can hopefully bring back players like Jones/Hyde next year instead of losing them to free agency next.
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2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
The cap continues to go up
Of course, what we are all hoping for is the draft picks hit as we go along here
What would be really nice is if some of these late round picks ended up becoming players take a guy like Spector
I suspect this is Beane's thinking also. $20mil in cap space today is almost ~9% of the roster, in a few years maybe it'll be closer to 6-7% as cap numbers rise. But I still think he's been reckless with the cap lately which is going to affect our ability to sign/re-sign impactful free agents in the future. Also it's tougher for rookies to stand out when the Bills are paying out high contracts to the players ahead of them. Hines/Matakevich/Settle are examples of players I'd rather have seen later round draft picks come in and try to replace w/ the hopes the team hit on 1 or 2.
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I'm sure this answer will be unpopular. I want to see Beane unload cap $$. Beane has backloaded contracts so much that Allen/Miller/Diggs will be counting almost $110 million against the cap in two years. I liked the Allen restructure, but didn't like the other two as much. The Bills also have 6-10mil/year in cap space used up by void years every year between now and 2027. Between restructured/backloaded contracts and void years the Bills will have almost a $20 mil cap space disadvantage vs most teams each year for almost the next half decade. And we're already 10 mil over next year's cap before accounting for Poyer, the draft, or the ~20 players we're going to need to sign. The current team is essentially being paid for on a credit card w/ future cap space.
I thought it was smart to let Edmunds walk for $18mil/year, but not if we're going to pay $18mil/year to Hines/Neal/Matakevich/Settle/Harty type players instead. Those were luxuries I think the Bills should have gone without this year and are not the players I want the Bills to mess up their future cap space for.
I would trade Oliver, cut McKenzie, cut Neal because those are the only contracts left on the entire roster the Bills can actually get out of. Re-sign Phillips/Shaq/Klein if any of them will sign cheap 1 yr deals. Then go into the draft targeting O-line/LB/Safety and roll whatever money we can over to next year. Beane was brilliant with the cap his first few years here but I think it's a mistake to keep doubling down on going all in when Josh Allen alone is going to likely keep us competitive for a decade+
I'm glad Beane addressed the O-line, and I'm glad Poyer is back, but otherwise not a fan of the $$ given out this offseason and hope not to see much more.
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Fix the cap. Between our cap space for the next few years and the fact that we will be drafting low every year IMO the team will need more resources to reload.
Free up enough cap space that the following year we can buy ourselves an O-lineman and a WR.
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3 hours ago, BrooklynBills said:
Wanted to do a mock offseason but realizing that the Salary Cap portion is kind of a thread all on its own. I know its been discussed here but I don't think I've seen anything where the money and decisions are really broken down with the corresponding numbers. Obviously, this won't be everyone's kind of thread as i realize that some people just don't take that big of interest into the inner roster workings and cap crunching. Would love to get some feedback though on what others think of some of these decisions and some of the different cap saving routes we could go.
Initial Cap Space: -16.8 million
Step 1: Creating Cap Space (easy moves)
-Restructure Josh Allen => creates 21.5 million in cap space
-Restructure Von Miller => creates 10.8 million in cap space
-Cut Nyheim Hines => creates 4.8 million in cap space
-Cut Isaiah McKenzie => creates 2.6 million in cap space
-Cut Siran Neal => creates 2.2 million in cap space
These moves are no brainers IMO and would give the Bills roughly $25 million in cap space heading into the offseason. The rookie pool will account for roughly $7 million. So the Bills will effectively have $18 million in cap space for FA contracts and re-signings after these moves. Josh Allen's deal is structured for us to restructure it several times before we extend him again and if it reaches a point where we are afraid to restructure it because his play has dropped off or because of injury then we are screwed in that short term and will just need to eat it. Von's deal seems to be structured for him to do a planned restructure this offseason. Cutting Hines sucks because I like the player but paying a backup RB almost $5 mil on the cap is just terrible roster management. I wouldn't be opposed to doing a small extension that could lower his cap hit some but realistically I don't think it makes sense. McKenzie and Neal are backups who are just paid too much considering how much playing time we want them to get moving forward.
Step 2: Creating more Cap Space (harder decisions) - players who I don't think should play on these cap numbers next year
-Mitch Morse at 11.6 => I think with the way his contract is structured initially this coming season would be his last with the Bills. Next year, they can get out the contract with real minimal dead money. But I don't know if it's justifiable to pay him over $11 mil on the cap next year simply due to his overall play. He is paid as a top 10 C and I don't think his overall play is there at all. Not to mention that we have a very capable C in waiting in Ryan Bates. Cutting Morse would save the Bills $5.3 million. Morse has $0 GTD this year or next with cap hits of over $11 mil and base salaries of $6.6 and $6.8 so I wonder if there is a good chance here to work on a salary reduction that gives him money this year and lowers that 11 mil hit to something more manageable. Either way, I'm trying to save at least $3-$5 mil on the cap by cutting him or working out a salary reduction. Lets just split the difference and say we save $4 mil.
-Ed Oliver at 10.7 and Tim Settle at 4.9 => The interior of the Bills DL was a big let down last season. Daquon Jones was the only player that I felt was having a solid season. Oliver was streaky and he has periods where he is just invisible. Settle was a disappointment. Bills are locked in to $10.7 GTD for Oliver this year. I don't think a trade is going to make any sense for another team given that Oliver's full salary is GTD. Maybe the best thing here is to extend Oliver with a reasonable out in two years. Try to take your lumps in the future when the cap hopefully rises and you can better absorb some dead money. Or you get lucky and he takes a step and you have him signed to a reasonable deal. Just don't think he play on that cap number. Settle isn't signed after next year and I think I'd just cut him and save the 2.2 mil.
I'd extend Oliver at 4yrs, 44 million, giving him a 13 mi signing and GTD his year 1 salary and a portion of year 2. Total GTD $: 17.9
Signing bonus: 13 million
Year 1 cap: 5.15
Year 2 cap: 8.25
Year 3 cap: 14.25 (can cut him before this season saving 7.75m)
Year 4 cap: 16.75
Cap Savings from Morse cut or salary reduction: calling it $4 mil
Cap Savings from Oliver extension: 5.55 mil
Cap Savings from Settle release: 2.2 mil
Total effective cap room: roughly $29-30 million
Step 3: Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano
So I've lumped these two guys together because they are both 29 and have been consistent performers. They are both effectively signed for two more years and I think both are likely candidates for small extensions in a year or two. As such, it could also be beneficial to restructure their deals and buy some more cap room. Especially if there are plans to extend them moving forward. For now, I will just leave it as a thought, but the Bills can save roughly $6 mil on a Dawkins re-structure and another 6.5 on a Milano re-structure. I think you would only do this if there was a strong plan to extend these guys moving forward though.
Anyway, would love hear some opinions on some of these decisions. Nothing really seems too out of left field IMO.
Will try to put together something for Free Agency with regards to the salary cap in a few days.
I would be very nervous restructuring Von Miller's contract. He's coming off an ACL and restructuring his contract means paying him big money on an uncuttable contract until he is almost 40. I suspect restructuring him is the plan but I really hope they don't. I actually hope they don't restructure too many people, I'd like to see the bills get out of cap jail and maybe be able to sign a top tier FA at an offensive position of need *next* year.
I think restructuring Josh is a no brainer and would also cut Neal, McKenzie, Hines, & Settle for cap space.
If they trade Oliver instead of extend him who is on the hook for the guaranteed salary next year? Would it be the Bills or the new team? Depending on the answer I might try to trade him instead of extend him.
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The reason I would let Edmunds walk this offseason is specifically that I would rather have an OT or WR with the money that would go to Edmunds.
That said, if the price is only 4 years 44 Mil I'd resign Edmunds and not think twice. You're unlikely to get a difference maker for that price.
For $15mil+/year I think Edmunds will get, I'd go find that WR or OT.
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1) Keep Allen upright and healthy by improving the O-Line and/or play design.
2) Fix the cap
3) Get Allen at least one new legit weapon on offense, whether it's boundary WR, slot WR, RB
4) make the playoffs
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I moved over from there when it was removed. I don't miss every over-reaction getting it's own thread on the old BBMB. (It's really felt like home this past week!) I do miss all news and player updates getting their own threads though. On BBMB if I wanted a quick update on all things Bills I could just scroll through the thread topics on the first two pages in a minute or two instead of reading to page 75 of the main thread of the week to try to find out how a player's injury is trending. I'm grateful to have found this place though. I agree this site is moderated better and the conversation is usually better too.
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I would make 2023 a mini-rebuild year and fix some of our current/future cap problems. I think Beane went all-in in 2021/2022 and it didn't work out, but doubling down on that to fill all the holes on this team will IMO bite the team in future years and shorten our SB window. I'd pay for it now.
I would offer Edmunds a 5 year 60 million contract that is backloaded to where the Bills have an out at 4 year 44 mil. When he probably says no I let him walk in FA. Let Poyer & Singletary walk. Trade Oliver. Cut Hines/McKenzie/Neal for cap savings.
Ideally I'd want most of these players back but I'd rather have $15-20mil in cap space to sign someone else than pay Edmunds, same with whatever Oliver is going to command. I really wanted to see Hyde/Poyer play another year together, but if 2023 does become a mini-rebuild it probably doesn't make sense to re-sign Poyer unless the team thinks he has at least 3 good years left in him, so I'd let him walk in FA.
Re-sign Phillips/Lawson/Jackson/Klein to reasonable contracts and whichever Olineman we're about to lose that the team likes most between Boettger, Van Roten, & Quessenberry
Try to sign Mitch Trubisky as back-up QB if he'll sign cheap and try to find a cheap rental at MLB.
Draft OL, OL, Safety, WR in whatever order. Possibly LB if one falls in the right spot.
Accept our defense will be mediocre next year, start fixing our O-line, and accumulate the cap space and resources to sign a true WR #1B opposite Diggs and/or O-line as needed in 2024. Pay close attention to the # of FAs being signed because Edmunds & Poyer (especially Edmunds) will probably land us some high comp picks in 2024.
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3 hours ago, Big Turk said:
The salary cap isn't real and they could easily free up space with some restructures
They can free up space by restructuring Allen. Not a whole lot of other players look like they would make much sense and also free up a lot of space. They could free up space by restructuring Tre White if you've seen enough of him off of his ACL that you're willing to make him uncuttable/untradable until his contract runs out in three years at an annual salary of $17mil. Same with Von Miller coming off of his ACL if you're willing to guarantee him $20-$30mil per year until he's just about 40.
But I'd prefer the Bills lose a player or two now than risk screwing up their salary cap that badly for the next 3-5 years. I really wanted to see Poyer retire a Bill, but after today I think I'd let Poyer go and try to trade Oliver. Make next year a partial rebuilding year on defense & fix the cap. IMO that would set us up better for the long run.
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Josh Allen's elbow is injured and Micah Hyde and Von Miller are out for the year. 3rd seems fair under those circumstances.
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The Bills have pretty close to zero cap space for 2022.
In 2023, they are already 11 million *over* the cap, 16 players short of a full roster, have a rookie draft class to sign, and potentially Edmunds, Poyer, Singletary, Dane Jackson, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, and 5 of our O-linemen on the roster are all free agents that need to be signed if they want to bring any of these players back.
I'm happy they aren't wasting money on washed up players at the deadline.
The only player I'd want to see them sign is OBJ, and only if he'd take a pro-rated contract for this year only.
I'd hate to lose someone like Jordan Poyer or Jordan Phillips next year because we paid Melvon Gordon and Bryan Edwards this year.
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Cut Justin Murray for Ike, put Stevenson on season ending IR. Wait and see on Benford and Kumerow.
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I chose the Buccaneers because I would enjoy seeing Brady sent off into retirement with a loss to the Bills in the superbowl..
But that also means I have to root for the Buccaneers to make the Superbowl 🤢 The Giants would be another interesting one.
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If McDermott convinces Beane to make a trade with the bears to acquire Nathan Peterman and decides to bench Josh Allen to start Peterman in the middle of a playoff push, then yes.
Otherwise, no.
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I don't like that this felt like a bit of a reach for a "need" pick, and not BPA. You can't convince me Elam was BPA over Devon Lloyd, Linderbaum, & Jermaine Johnson.
I don't understand the need for a trade up.
But I'm not going to question Beane/McD when it comes to DBs, and if they were willing to trade up for him, this was clearly the player they wanted. I'm excited we have a CB opposite White with good size, and the biggest hole on our team has been addressed.
Not the player I was hoping we would get but I'm looking forward to seeing what Beane/McD can do with him.
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Has Von Miller played DE in a 4-3 defense lately? (Or in our case 4-2-5?)
I'm really happy the Bills went all in on a top tier pass rusher and I trust Beane, but for some reason I thought Von Miller would not be a great scheme fit for us? His strength seems to be rushing in open space from the OLB spot?
Can the Bills find ways to move Von Miller around or is he definitely just RDE? If so any concern he doesn't play as well at that position?
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I'm glad McKenzie will be back and I think a 2 year contract is the perfect amount of time to sign him for. This is my favorite move of the Bills' short offseason so far. I really thought he was gone, glad to see I was wrong. I hope they either keep Beasley or find a replacement that isn't a rookie though, I'd like to see what McKenzie can do as a full time starter in the slot but at the same time wouldn't want to go into next season with him being our only option at the position.
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We have no cap space and can't even afford to sign a lot of our own FA this year. Anyone expecting Wagner&Robinson&Gronk etc will probably be disappointed.
I'd be happy if we land even one impact player (Chandler Jones) but even that is unlikely.
We'll still be returning most of the players from one of the best rosters in football last year. Hopefully we have a good draft and our salary cap issues clear up next year.
I'd actually be disappointed if the FO goes and restructures Dawkins/White/Diggs etc and pulls future cap space to sign some overpriced FAs... right now our Super Bowl window looks like it's open for a long time. No need to mortgage the future IMO.
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Chandler Jones. DE is the one position on the field where I'd be fine if the Bills need to restructure some contracts and kick some money down the road to make it happen. It's possibly the team's biggest need and it's probably not something the Bills can fix in the draft for this year. I'd be fine if he was our only FA signing this year (aside from re-signing a few of our own.)
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1) **Fix the pass rush**
2) Keep our offense intact as much as possible
3) solidify the O-line
4) add a corner
Maybe that's asking too much with our cap situation but I think that might do it.
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No. I'm still not over what he did to Tre and would not want to root for him. A different vet TE if the right one becomes available, sure. Gronk, no thanks.
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1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:
This is kinda my point... What draft value do you think Edmonds will have in when the new team also has to pay the guy $12 m... Are you confident you are drafting his replacement with the draft pick you get back ?
He was the starting MLB on *statistically* the #1 defense in the NFL this year and he's only 23 years old. Am I off base thinking the Bills could get a mid to high 2nd round pick for him from a team that is rebuilding with a bunch of cap space?
McKenzie Signing With The Colts
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
He didn't fit under the cap for us this year and was a better gadget receiver than a full time slot, but he was one of my favorite people on the team. I usually don't root for Bills players after they move on to other teams but I hope he goes on to have a solid career.