transplantbillsfan

Look at the new shiny object we just drafted with our 2nd pick in the 5th round!

Are you joking? Yes, I'm sure Taylor's shaking in his boots because McDermott clearly plans to replace him with a guy he drafted with a 2nd 5th round pick...

Completely fair opinion and well stated, even if I disagree, though not strongly

There's an actual name for this kind of logical fallacy. I can't think of the name right now, though. Anyone...? Besides, did I post an actual assessment by him of Taylor? Do you believe he skews his data because he's enamored with Taylor?

The first is how accurate he is overall on ALL of his passes compared to his peers. The 2nd is how accurate he is to passes solely behind the LOS compared to his peers. He breaks down accuracy % to different levels of the field.

So first of all, I'd recommend forking out the less than $20 to get this PDF QB catalogue emailed to you. It's obvious he put tons of work and time into this. Last year when someone first mentioned him to me on reference to this catalogue, my reaction was: "who the hell is Cian Fahey?!" Well, in short, he's good at what he does... having worked at Footballoutsiders for a while before going out on his own. But no matter what you think of his knowledge, what the catalogue primarily accomplishes (at least for me) is a good deal of comparative data that goes beyond the typical charted data the league tracks. The focus is on the actual level of play of a QB on the field by attributing credit and/or blame for individual things the QB almost always gets credit (i.e.:completion %) or blame (i.e.:interceptions, sacks) for. Fahey acknowledges the inevitable subjectivity involved, but uses the same subjective criteria to chart 33 NFL QBs and every single one of their snaps. So it's pretty evenly subjective, at least. There are chapters that discuss in detail all 33 QBs more anecdotally, but I don't want to post too much simply because of the amount of work he put into it. If you're a football fan and specifically a fan of QBs, it's easily worth $20. But here are a few pieces of comparative data some that seem to counter some preconceived notions. I think people can figure out what these terms mean themselves, but again, Fahey explains in detail what each category means and what he includes. All I'm doing is including the rankings among his 32 peers for each category: INTERCEPTABLE PASS % - 3rd CAUGHT (by the defense) INTERCEPTABLE PASS % - Tied for 6th highest ACCURACY % - 9th ACCURACY % behind LOS - 19th ACCURACY % passes 11-15 yards - 8th ACCURACY % passes 11-20 yards - 10th ACCURACY % passes 5 or more yards - 7th % of total attempts up to 10 yards beyond LOS - 24th % of total attempts beyond 10 yards beyond LOS - 10th FAILED RECEPTION (by the WR) %.- 4th highest CREATED RECEPTION (by the WR) % - 20th highest CREATED YARDS (by the WR) % - 26th ADJUSTED COMPLETION % - 5th ADJUSTED YPA - 3rd SCREENS, SCREEN TDs, & SCREEN % - 33rd AVOIDABLE SACK % - 18th Anyway... there's a LOT more in the catalogue but I don't know if everyone remembers McDermott's PC about why the Bills decided to keep Taylor and one of the things he mentioned was that in watching Taylor on film last year he was really good (the actual word might have been fantastic, but now I'm too lazy to look it up) and all everyone could call it was "coachspeak?" Maybe that's true, to some degree... but maybe he was also being truthful...

K. Don't know how you wanna put this together, but I'll give you those odds if you're really going to put money down that a healthy Tyrod Taylor is on the bench Week 1 because he lost his job to Yates, Jones or Peterman. I'm a little amazed how out of your minds some of you folks are.

Saying a top draft pick will be the QB next year is 100% reasonable and I think that's clearly the plan if Tyrod and the team aren't more productive in 2017 than 2016. That's not something I'd remotely argue against. It's those saying that Peterman is suddenly "The Guy" that I think are just grasping at straws at this point. I love the way people keep coming back to this. Someone even used the words "open competition." Let's see how they split the reps in TC. Is there anyone willing to bet Taylor isn't the starter Week 1 against the Jets barring injury? I'll give you 3 to 1 odds... God Thurm. It's clear I annoy you, but try reading posts and conversations you're responding to, please. What are you pulling 3 years from? I responded to Foxx who said he was 95% sure Taylor would be benched by the last game THIS YEAR. You're embarrassing yourself...

Exactly. This is reality

Look... anything is possible, but that incredible gleam in everyone's eyes is about a 5th round pick vs a QB with 30 NFL starts playing at a clearly NFL starter level. Amazing how much that fact is overlooked...

Wow... People are apparently going nuts because we just drafted a QB. With those odds you must be willing to put some money on Taylor being benched at some point, right? 95%...? Wanna bet? If those are really your odds I would think you'd want to...

It's a longer shot than Taylor just playing better than 2016 and earning another longer term renegotiated deal. A much longer shot.

Yes. We should expect a 5th round draft pick to take the job away from Taylor. Drafting Peterman in the 5th really puts Taylor on notice. Too funny...

So really you're making the argument already...

How long until we see the arguments that Peterman is going to become the Bills starter at some point before the end of the season?

There... it's a name people know and were actually talking about in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. And it's a QB. Now everyone happy?

Wow... talk about a meltdown...

I'm sorry, but at what point will reality befriend some Bills fans? And that's not me saying QB isn't the most important position. And that's not me saying Taylor has proven he's our long term answer, yet. That's me saying... well... figure out the reality of the state of this team at the moment...

What was so great about Gillislee or Woods that they can't be replaced and even upgraded on still? Isn't Dalvin Cook still on the board at RB?

This should be a pick loved by every Bills fan on both sides of the QB fence. For the "Tyrod is our QB (at least now)" fans: This pick solidifies the fact that Tyrod is Buffalo's starting QB in 2017 and demonstrates a "here are the keys to the car, let's see what you can do" attitude by McDermott for the 2017 season. If Tyrod and the Bills exceed expectations and Taylor plays better than 2016 and more to the level of or better than 2015 and the Bills make the playoffs, don't expect Buffalo to draft a QB in round 1 again next year, despite 2 first round picks because Taylor might get another renegotiated deal and a longer term, more secure one in the offseason. BUT For the Tyrod dissenters: This trade down affords Buffalo the unique opportunity in 2018 in a (supposedly... like always) strong QB class to either draft a QB high because we sucked in 2017 and have a very high pick (which I don't think will happen) or we have the opportunity to use that 2nd 1st rounder (and likely compensatory picks considering our FA losses this year) to trade up for Darnold or another QB we like. Plus, we got an extra 3rd round draft class in a clearly deep draft class where there are a good number of extremely talented players on the board. Win on all sides! Except for KC... who SEVERELY overdrafted a QB.

Says guy on message board about guy who coaches in the NFL for a living... Terry? Is that you?

Thurm, you're like a parrot that responds at certain signals calling out the same songs despite the fact that they've been disproven time and again, but saying them, anyway. Taylor progressed in 2016 from 2015 in terms of both volume but especially efficiency at those throws over the middle of the field, including particularly the intermediate section. We've already established time and time and time and time again that the deep middle section of the field is and was never a big concern because it's not an area of the field the vast majority of NFL QBs go to very often. Despite your theories about the deep section of the field, the vast majority of NFL QBs, including the really good ones, throw the ball disproportionately to the sidelines more than they do to the middle of the field 20+ yards.

He's forced to take a QB at 10 now...? Funny, that's not what I got out of it. Thursday will be interesting...

I'm not spinning anything. Our passing game wasn't great and it wasn't good. But I don't know if you're being purposefully hyperbolic using the word "abysmal" or not.

There's really nothing that can sway anyone. You folks are clearly dug in on passing yards and passing attempts as the ultimate indictment on Taylor. If we can't convince you passing yards and passing attempts aren't as critical as you think they are (after the total number of passing attempts per game goes above a reasonable number... like 20 or 25), then why bother on either side?