TheElectricCompany
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The numbers absolutely line up for Jones and Watkins in their first 3 NFL seasons:
One of these sets of numbers is Julio Jones' production in his first 3 NFL seasons, the other is Sammy Watkins...
34 games played, 285 targets, 174 receptions, 2,737 yards, 20 TDs, 42 receptions of 20+ yards, 15 receptions of 40+ yards, 115 1st downs
37 games played, 275 targets, 153 receptions, 2,459 yards, 17 TDs, 36 receptions of 20+ yards, 13 receptions of 40+ yards, 108 1st downs
That was the original point that I made.
I'm not saying that availability isn't a concern--I'm saying that it's the only concern
I don't think anyone was saying Julio was top 5 during that injury riddled year. I didn't . Two years of elite production after propelled him to the top. Be nice if he did that as well
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As is mine. That's a very isolated stat that doesn't directly correlate to key numbers us Joes associate with elite WR play, such as catches, yards and touchdowns. It should have some reflection in YPC, but that's just one piece of the puzzleMy point is quite simple: up until 2016, Watkins had the highest yards per target in the NFL for the 2 years that he was in the league. He has nearly identical production through 3 years as Julio Jones. There isn't a thing he can't do on the football field.
One can't gloss over injuries either. While I do hope Sammy can rebound, stranger things have happened than seeing a young players career become underwhelming or cut short due to lingering pain.
When isolated stats dont line up with the most important numbers , I think you have to be a little suspicious .
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I am certainly getting beyond the scope of the thread .
Talent is defined differently in every professionals eye with different weights to each attribute .
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Pot, meet kettle. Taking a small sample size and projecting it across an entire season and giving it more weight than established production falls firmly into the "hypothesis contrary to fact" fallacy.My favorite quote, because that's what people say when they don't want to acknowledge context.
I do hope this is all moot by next December . Sammy can perhaps be in that conversation with a 1400 yard 10 TD year
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Context:
http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/
http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/
When he gets the targets, he's as good as anyone.
Isolated advanced stats are fun. Certainly falls into the "lies, damn lies and statistics " joke.
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I mentioned this earlier in regards to RBs, but really looking at this as you're starting a team from scratch and can pick any player at any position. Would you honestly choose Demaryius Thomas and put him on your team before Watkins? I wouldn't.
Based on his years of elite production across multiple schemes and QBs, absolutely !
That's not the point. The point is that he's viewed by the rest of the league and coaches as being top 5 at his position -- and it's not even close. Tell an NFL scout, DB, or GM that you think Sammy isn't a top 15 guy and watch their reaction. You'd be laughed out of the room. Sammy would be the clear cut #1 on every team in the NFL but for 3... and one of those is debatable.
The reason for Sammy "under performing" (which I think is a terrible label to apply to him) is due to the Bills ****-show at QB and his own health issues. One of those things (really both) are out of his control -- and has been pointed out, his injury and production are right on track with JJ's first few seasons. I bet Atlanta fans are glad the team didn't bail on Julio for "underwhelming".
All things being equal, which they would be if he were taken off the Bills roster and put onto another team, Sammy is a clear top 5 talent at his position in the NFL as judged by people who play and coach the game.
care to share a few links with GMs and coaches sharing their opinion on the matter ? I'm genuinely interested . Apparently this is a very agreed upon subject so I'm sure it be easy .
I'd love for Sammy to perform like a top 5 guy , but until he does , he has no business being considered elite, especially over guys that have already done it
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There is not a team in the NFL that he wouldn't start for. Not one. And maybe three teams in the league where he wouldn't be the clear #1 once he was signed (Atlanta, Pittsburgh... maybe Cinci).
Everyone in the league thinks highly of Sammy, that says a lot about his talent.
There are 64 starting wide receivers. Clearly, Sammy is good enough to be up there
But sure, get into the hypothetical "What if" argument that ignores where Sammy has continued to underwhelm: On the field as a Buffalo Bill.
But that's what the topic is about. No one is arguing total production.
Seems like some sort of consolation price.
Yeah, Sammy isn't half the receiver of OBJ or Brown, but he's certainly more talented!
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Yes, really.
Green is probably worth the discussion, but Evans is missing the speed and route-running ability to be considered top-5 talent IMO.
On pure talent alone, I would call the top-5 as Julio, Demaryius Thomas, Sammy, and then Beckham and Brown because their other attributes aside from size are so exceptional.
Huh?
Production is the ultimate decider of a players worth, not some undefinable "talent". I think the list of top tier receivers (OBJ, Brown, AJ Green, Julio, Demaryius Thomas) is pretty clear based on years of elite numbers.
Plus, you're casually looking over guys like TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper, who are just below that top shelf but still damn good. Guys that have smoked Sammy where it matters most - on the field.
Sammy > OBJ and Brown in anything? Frankly, he can't hold either of those guys jock straps.
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McCoy and Incognito are both 5, Dareus as a NT might be there.
You guys who think Sammy is top 5 are off your rocker. I don't even think he's top 15 yet.
He's mainly potential, fingers crossed this is the year the 16 game production matches that potential.
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Man, I hate the Raiders. Fans are dumb as bricks and A+ jerks, the stadium is a dump, the city is a dump and the owner is one of the goofiest looking guys in sports.
However, I will say the NFL is better when the Raiders are good...
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Kiko's knee stays intact and things could have worked out way differently.
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Oh, how far we have fallen since "winning the 2016 offseason"
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You have to think WHY Hawks are looking to trade him. Isn't he supposed to be a cornerstone of their secondary? Has he become a problem in that tight-knit locker room? You have to remember why Harvin got sent away. I would not be interested. Besides isn't McD's D supposed to de-emphasize the secondary?
They are not looking to trade them. The report is that they are open to it if they got a "fair" offer. With his accolades, "fair" is going to be expensive. As previously mentioned in this thread, this is likely the case for 95% of players in the league. You throw a boatload of picks at just about anyone and you'll get a bite here and there.
Sherman can take away a third of the field on his own. There are years of film and stats out there that emphasize this point. I think every coach in the league would be happy to incorporate that into their scheme.
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He'd be perfect for the Nathan's Hot Dog event.
Broadcasting AND Competing. Winning!
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what about a 2nd? that might get it done.
LOL.
#Alternatefacts
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Non QB players depreciate like cars.
Elite, top tier, players? Hogwash.
I'd love to be able to acquire Sherman for a ham sandwich, but it's not happening.
You really don't see elite players traded often these days, it's just too much currency to get a deal going.
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It will take major currency to move him out of Seattle. A high 1st round pick gets the conversation started, it would take more than that.
You just aren't going to get premier, established all pro caliber players for chump change, especially the best corner in the game. Dude is an elite player and has proven so for several years.
I don't think it's really a possibility, just typical time killing "stories" we see in the dead of the NFL offseason.
#FAKENEWS
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7 and 8 don't matter
8 doesn't, but it was funny as hell!
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I respect your opinions, I just don't share them and disagree.
1. Jim being a mentor for this kid off the field has nothing to do with being in the FO or on the sidelines. It has everything to do with talking to the kid at home, off the field, on the phone, etc. He is family and is going to do that regardless of where he lands I suspect as Jim is a big family guy.
2. See number 1 above.
3. I whole heartedly disagree. Nobody has any delusions of this kid being the next Jim.
4. I don't see that happening now, don't know why that would happen after.
Civil back and forth? Ah, a refreshing change of pace from my old stomping ground.
There is a ton of speculation on Jim & Chad's relationship that is largely coming out of thin air. While I do have an easy avenue to speak with JK (no bull ****), I doubt he would ever open up to non family about what Chad is really going through, for better or worse, and his role in helping Chad become a pro.
If you make the decision to draft Chad, you do it because of his ability and the confidence in your coaches to develop him. You really need to throw out the relationship to Jim all together. If Jim was his dad and was passing down a ridiculous Bo Jackson esque gene pool, different story. I wish the kid the best, but it's going to be a pressure cooker if he ended up here.
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Sounds like the kid's own father won't or can't "mentor" him.
Well, I'm not going to jump to conclusions about Jim or Kevin's role with Chad, but the assumption that Jim is chomping at the bit to "mentor" or "coach" Chad isn't fair.
I will bite...
1. Because Jim is still so connected to this team already and he is a blood relative.
2. Jim already stuck up for him on his behalf to get him invited again to the combine after they cancelled his invite, so he is clearly still attached to this kids trajectory.
3. What pressure? If this kid was coming in as a high draft pick, sure maybe some pressure. But this kid would be a low round investment at best.
4. Jim was a LONG time ago and we have gone through a TON of bad QB's...at this point, there is no pressure on this kid to be the 2nd coming of his uncle. There are no comparisons to Jim. He isnt faced with living up to his Uncles legacy. So this idea of pressure because of Jim to me is just very over blown.
I'll respond in line:
1) Jim's connection to the team is irrelevant. He is not in the front office making personnel decisions or a coach. You will create a "too many cooks in the kitchen scenario" with Jim actively involved with Chad.
2) Making a public statement on his behalf isn't exactly news worthy. Of course he'll stick up for him, but that doesn't mean he's going to be taking him under his wing or any of that nonsense.
3) You are out of your mind if you think that a Kelly playing in WNY doesn't come with pressure. Jim is the King of WNY sports on the field, off the field he and Jill have a nationally known story of both hope and tragedy. That matteres. The pressure from media, fans, talking heads, etc. will be immense.
4) He will always be compared to Jim and his reputation. That is his fate.
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My interest in him has nothing to do with Jim, but I thought Jim could be a reason Bills could be on this kid more than others because with Jim around it could help mentor the kid and hopefully keep his head on straight where the off field stuff isnt an issue.
I'll ask again, why is everyone assuming JK will be "mentoring" the guy, and when considering how his relationship with the Bills started, why is that a good thing?
I'm not even going to get into the pressure cooker that would come with playing in Buffalo with JK as your uncle.
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You obviously didn't watch Unitas on a regular basis.
Most people haven't. That was 60 years ago with a fraction of the media coverage we see today.
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Brady has not done anything without BB.
20. HYPOTHESIS CONTRARY TO FACT: This fallacy consists of offering a poorly supported claim about what might have happened in the past or future if circumstances or conditions were other than they actually were or are. The fallacy also involves treating hypothetical situations as if they were fact.
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So, where did this narrative come from that JK will be taking Chad under his wing?
That's a very big assumption.
In What Round Do the Bills Take Joe Mixon
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by TheElectricCompany
He'll go in the 2nd or 3rd, but not to the Bills.
He's too talented to go any later than that. I do hope that was an isolated incident and he can have a great career.
Less wear and tear by taking that year off too.