Last Guy on the Bench
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Posts posted by Last Guy on the Bench
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7 hours ago, KD in CA said:
Yup. Personally I'd rank them Moss, Coryell and Lewis but those are the top 3. TO is #4.
Moss might be the best football player I've ever seen.
I agree. I might put Lewis ahead of Coryell, but your four as a whole seem just right to me. I can't understand any argument against them.
Moss was a total freak and an absolute joy to watch play. Lewis was an all timer - a dominant player who changed games. TO was in the top few receivers in the league for many years and has the numbers to prove it. Coryell paved the way for 21st century football. Don't know how anyone can not vote for any of those guys.
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Good stuff. Thanks for taking the time to post.
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I too get nervous thinking about the Bills' recently historical fast starts.
But - correct me if I'm wrong - it seems to me that those teams started quickly while primarily relying on offense. And none of those offenses was loaded with particularly special players. I love Fitz and Freddie as much as the next guy, but they ain't exactly in the HOF discussion. Never mind Trent Edwards.
I think in general that good offense is less stable/reproducible than good defense - unless you have several superstars (QB, WR, OT, and either TE or RB or more WR etc.). So it doesn't surprise me to see a team flash on offense for a while and then fall off the cliff.
Good team defense on the other hand can be pretty consistent due to player cohesion, smart play, intelligent coaching, and guts. Doesn't hurt to have a defensive superstar or two, of course, but I think good team defense is more reliable than good team offense. So I think the 2017 Bills are likely to be a little more consistent over the rest of the season. Doesn't mean they will go 5-2 over the next seven, but I have a hard time imagining them completely imploding now.
The reliance on turnovers is worrisome, though, as others have pointed out. Yes, they are causing many of the turnovers with their technique and gang tackling, and yes, on the other side, Tyrod has proven to be consistently safe with the football. So it's not a total fluke. Nonetheless, their current margin is too wide to be sustainable over the long term. Hopefully the D and the O will keep improving (still a new system for them) so as the turnover differential comes back to earth they will still be able to win.
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Im expecting a loss. Two tough wins in a row has to have drained these guys to some degree plus were banged up a bit. Add Cincy essentially playing for their season and the fact that they have the third ranked defense and are playing at home makes this an unlikely place to get a win. If we do pull it off it will certainly say something about how good we might really be. Im not expecting it however. Bottom line is it wont change my opinion on this team. Three very winnable games after the bye could put us at 6-2 at the mid point even if we lose sunday.
That's where I am. I was pretty optimistic (though not especially confident) about the last two games. I really think we drop this one. Cincy is good, hungry, and home.
My opinion is that we are a decent team - bordering on good. We should be in most games and will win our share. A loss to Cincy on the road won't change that.
However, a WIN will definitely change my opinion. It would really surprise me, and I think it would be a signal that this team is more than decent. A win this week will make think they are potentially special.
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A weekly (or more frequent) long-form piece that doesn't just regurgitate coach-speak or player sound bites--along the lines of MMQB / SI content--would go a long way toward justifying the paywall fee. This would involve national outreach and tapping into perspectives beyond the walls of One Bills Drive, but that's exactly what would elevate Bills Blitz beyond the standard daily coverage already being done.
This to me is the biggest issue. Way too many BN columns and articles just refer to the things we all know and use quotes from the press conferences we've all seen (or read the direct transcripts of).
I would definitely pony up the $3 if I felt like people were reaching out to unusual sources or getting perspectives from different people around the league. Tyler Dunne did this really well when he was here - no matter what he was writing about, he would take the time to talk to players/coaches from different cities, retired players, scouts, etc.
I think this is important not just for reporting but also for opinion pieces. Everyone beats up on certain columnists (especially one) for being negative. But it's not just negativity - it's lazy, ill-informed negativity - the kind of stuff I can hear from any radio show caller or the guy sitting next to me at the bar. Someone like Peter King - who can basically spout anything he wants to as a columnist (and does) still takes lots of time to talk to different people around the league and to offer multiple perspectives and insights on any given issue. That is what makes a column more than just some dude's opinion. A little reporting, a little dialogue, a little synthesis. I would happily pay for the site if there was more of that kind of stuff.
Thanks for taking the time to engage.
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Yes. I say there's good reason to have him up there.
* Name another Bills QB who had us on the brink of the playoffs in the last 12 years.
* 12 games played for 3018 yards (extrapolate those numbers to a full 16 games and we're talking 4000 yards in a full season)
* QBR of 87.8
* 15 rushes, 14 yards with a long of 10 yards in 12 games (extrapolate that to a full season and he would have easily had over 100)
* 18 TD's and 10 INT's is a ratio of 2 to 1...extrapolate that over a full season and he would have had 24 TD's
* Mental toughness and team leader
* If we had him as a rookie in 2005 he probably would have surpassed Kelly (or come close) if you extrapolate his stats from 2014 over the course of nine NFL seasons.
I'm not saying he is a lock to get a place on the stadium Wall of Fame, but the team should give full consideration to his credentials both as a player and team leader considering how he came in a led our team to its best record in a very long time.
Great post, BBF. Made my afternoon.
I've enjoyed watching you shoot the fish in the barrel and will no doubt continue to enjoy it as more swim by (though I'm a little terrified of what appears to be the average intelligence of posters - good God!).
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True he is going to get knocked a bit for the Air Raid. I do see him going in the First when it all plays out though actually. But right now i see more places have a 2-3rd round grade on him.
And i only watched one game of his so far so i dont have a good feel of him
I've never been a big QB footwork guy - probably because I don't know enough about it to get too worked up either way. But to my untrained eye, Falk has amazing feet. He always looked balanced and light and he makes small shifts in the pocket really easily. Love his poise and accuracy too. I think he would be a great fit here.
I hope people hold the Air Raid against him, because if they don't, I think he could end up going too high for us (you know, given that the Bills and the Chiefs will have playoff byes in the AFC).
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Poyer is from a small town here in Oregon (Astoria) and was one of the best HS athletes in recent memory. IIRC, he led Astoria to state championships in baseball and football (QB and DB) and was POY in both sports. He had a good career at Oregon State, but the team was bad during his time there so he did not get much attention.
Thanks. You got me intrigued, so I checked out his Wikipedia page. His high school career was ridiculous:
"Poyer played baseball, basketball, and football at Astoria High School. As a freshman, he helped the baseball team win the state championship. As a senior, he was named Oregon's player of the year and was drafted by the Florida Marlins.[1] In 2009, Poyer was named the basketball Cowapa League Player of the Year. He was a quarterback and safety on the football team and had 123 touchdowns in three years. In his senior season, he was the state's player of the year on offense and defense.[1][2]"
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You can still have a great personality and be a hardass. We need a Mad dog Mattis coach in the worse way. Somebody who hates to lose and will be your best friend when you are winning.
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Not when we are getting are heads smashed in. It just looks beta as hell.
The only thing "beta as hell" is insecure guys who try to pump themselves up by seeing the world through an absurd alpha/beta lens.
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These are great as usual. Thanks, again.
I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.
One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.
Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.
Yes - that was my thought as well, watching it in slow motion. It's tricky to see because of the elevated camera perspective. But I think Taylor clearly waited until he had a throwing lane. Throw could still have been more accurate, but I do think the d-lineman caused the timing issue. Either way, Clay should definitely have caught the ball.
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Really??? The worst move this org. has ever made was the ridiculous contract they gave this underachieving head case.
If you think that's the worst move this organization has ever made, I don't even know what to say.
That catalog is LONG and distinguished.
Dareus has lots of talent and does contribute at a high level (sometimes). Not saying he's worth the contract. But good God, this team has made so many painful moves that contract wouldn't crack the top 100!
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I'm in. I've watched a bunch of his games - not just highlights.
If I had the first pick in the draft, I'd take Darnold. Love him. Think he's going to be VERY special in the NFL.
But I really like Falk, and he can be had a little later (maybe not much - still top part of the 1st round IMO). I'm not worried about the system so much, because I'm not basing it on stats. He is super cool in the pocket. Nifty feet - always balanced, no wasted movement in the lower body, great pocket adjustments to pressure. Sees the whole field. Accurate. A gamer. I think he would be perfect for the kind of offense it looks like we'll be running.
Frankly, unless Tyrod makes a big jump to the next level this year, which I'm not expecting (and I'm a Tyrod fan), I would probably take Falk if I had the 2nd pick in the draft, assuming Darnold was gone with the first. I like him a little better than Allen - whom I like a lot - and a lot better than Rosen, whom I don't like so far.
My current fantasy, though, is that somehow the bottom drops out for Kansas City this year and we end up with the first pick in the draft and get Darnold. I know it's not realistic. Probably more realistic we'll earn it ourselves, although I think our D will be too solid for us to lose more than 10 games. I'm sweating the idea of the Jets getting Darnold. That would be painful.
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It's amazing how many of the people bashing you haven't bothered to engage with the well-informed substance of your post. You might be wrong, but the parallel you're drawing is thoughtful and worth considering. The cutting away of veteran, somewhat prickly talent does seem familiar - didn't like it then, and I don't now.
It is early days and hopefully it won't turn into a pattern with these guys. I'm not super impressed, but I am trying keep an open mind and remain hopeful.
Your post, though, does make me a bit nervous.
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One of the reasons that the foot injury hurts Watkins a little more than other WRs is how quick and hard he makes his stops, cuts and his breaks. They are noticeably different than everyone else on the team. It's the reason he can get wide open on a seven yard out pass, and one of the many reasons why he is unstoppable when healthy.
If I were the Rams and about to make that trade I think those four plays would seal the deal for me that he is 100% healthy.
Really? I'm sure you're right about what makes him special. But If I were the Rams I would ask to see practice footage, and I would have my doctors and coaches have a look at him after that (the typical conditional part of a trade). It just seems too haphazard to rely on a preseason game.
Especially from the Bills point of view. We're going to "showcase" him the first few plays of the very first live action of the year? Hell, those plays might turn into disasters (sacks, miscommunications, etc.). No guarantee that you can ever really showcase a wide receiver. If I'm Beane trying to convince the Rams about his health, I just send them a bunch of practice footage of Sammy running routes and cutting on that foot.
Preseason games are too unpredictable and random to be used strategically in this way. Again, maybe if you are talking about playing a UDFA for the whole second half or something, so people can get some game film on him. But there is plenty of game film on Sammy Watkins.
I do agree that "not telling" McD until after that game seems bizarre. That one's hard to swallow.
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I can't see how catching a few passes in a preseason game would be an audition or a demonstration of anything - especially when a guy has been around for 3 years. If a trading partner was going to base their decision on that they would be crazy.
Even just to show he's healthy - who's going to put stock in a few plays (which he could gut out) as opposed to the full medical he would definitely be getting?
Other teams know all about Sammy Watkins. They are not sitting around watching three or four plays in a preseason games and going, "Hey wait a minute, this guy is good! Let's trade our injured third string CB and a mediocre draft pick for him!"
Maybe if he was some UDFA, that would make sense, but not in this case.
In fact, if a trade was already potentially in the cards, I don't think they play him at all. Why risk injury?
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HE HAS NO CHOICE IN THE MATTER.
This isn't a QB in a market edging toward $30M per year........he's a WR......he has to take his money when he can get it and the Bills had exclusive negotiating rights because:
They have the franchise tag to use........and nobody else EVEN CLOSE to that kind of talent to use it on for the next few years.
By virtue of trading away picks and poor draft picks like EJ and Ragnuts there is a dearth of top young talent coming up for renewal soon and a TON of vets coming off the books in the next two offseasons.
Blows my mind how stupid fans can get wrt evaluating the VALUE of talent.
I'm not terribly bothered by losing Darby.......but keep in mind he was ONLY one of the 5 or so best second round picks the Bills have made in the last THIRTY YEARS.
Grasp that when you fall in love with draft picks, Bills fans.
You have approximately a 1 in 6 chance of having the pick that you traded Watkins for turning into a player as good as Darby.
This could not be more spot on, in my opinion.
I cannot understand how cavalier many people are about truly gifted players. Or maybe it's just that they don't see him as such. For me, Watkins jumps out every time he is on the field. He is in a class above 95% of the players in the NFL in terms of his talent. And while he hasn't fully actualized that talent yet, even young Sammy learning his way into the NFL is a lot better than most other options. When you have a guy like that, you keep him, unless it will cripple the team financially, which it certainly would not in this case - even at the franchise tag amount.
I love the draft as much as the next guy, but how people talk themselves into the idea that all of these draft picks will magically turn into good players, when even the best-drafting teams strike out more often than not, is beyond me. You want draft picks so you can find guys like Sammy! But if you just get rid of them once you get them, what's the point?
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I have NEVER felt like giving up on this team.
But this is just horrendous. One of the few guys on the team with legit star potential. Even with the injuries has put up some pretty impressive numbers. Looks healthy. Is still super young. They must have seen something they didn't like in practice (attitude, intelligence? I don't know.), but still no excuse. Watkins is the kind of guy you shape your offense around. Build around his strengths.
And I can't buy the tank argument. This team has too much talent to fall off the deep end. The defensive line, running game, Taylor's playmaking ability - all will keep them in lots of games. Plus there are a number of crappy teams around the league. You can't really choose to tank in the NFL. At least not for the number 1 pick. Certainly not with the Bills roster. I think Darnold has a shot to be an all-timer, but if you think you can manipulate a season enough to guarantee you get that #1 pick in a year where it's really worth something, you're a fool. Your players certainly aren't going to tank for you.
So I think they've just decided they don't love Watkins and would rather have draft picks to build the team their own way.
I also think they are complete tools. My interest in this season just went down 1,000 percent. And I'm pissed I just laid out the $200 for GamePass (international), which I've always previously considered a great deal.
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So many nominations for teams who didn't make the playoffs. You guys are nuts. The Stadium holds 10,000 fewer people now and the teams stink.
Most games I go to these days, the crowd is not even disrupting the other team's offense.
If the Bills get good, I believe the fans can still be loud but there's no comparison to the early 90s noise. None.
I was at lots of games in the late 80s and early 90s. That Dallas Monday nighter in 2007 was louder than all of them. By a LOT. I don't think my father's ears have ever recovered.
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Personally I think RW is trash. Doesn't have any clutch genes in his body and is a pick machine in big time games and situations. His defense and run game has carried him ever since he's been in the league. He's nothing but a game manager. He is not a franchise qb. Had we drafted him he would have flopped hardcore and been a backup fighting for a roster spot.
Based on what?
More game-winning drives in his first four seasons than anyone in HISTORY. Led the league in 4th quarter passer rating in 2015. Couldn't find individual numbers for 2016 (I'm sure they're somewhere), but saw the Seahawks were 9th as a team for 4th quarter QBR in 2016. PFF had Wilson with the 6th highest 4th quarter grade for 2016.
Not saying he's the most clutch QB in the league. But "doesn't have any clutch genes in his body" seems overly harsh to say the least.
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Hilarious video. Thanks.
No way to be sure how he'll project to this level, but he does seem to have pretty nimble feet and a distinct penchant for grinding people into the turf. Here's hoping he can do the same thing to bigger, faster people.
Will be fun to see how he develops.
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I was thinking "and it ends with & 15"
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Bills had starters on defense missing and the Redskins were just a much better team......
Right. It's only the first SB where the Bills were really outcoached. I think they had way more talent than the Giants.
But the next year the Skins were a freaking juggernaut. I wouldn't say they had more talent than the Bills, but everything just came together for them that whole year. They were in the flow. Rypien spent the year looking like a Hall of Famer. I don't know why or what happened exactly. It was just a perfect storm for that team. They weren't going to lose to the Bills, even though long-term the Bills had more talent.
The Cowboys arguably did have more talent than the Bills the next two years. They were a damn good team. I think if they played the Bills 10 times, the Bills would win 3 or 4 games. So not a great aberration that the Boys won two in a row.
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With all due respect matter, I would suggest you take anything that your work buddy's friend says with a truckload of salt because from what I understand virtually everything you've been told is entirely mistaken.
I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just figured I would take one last shot at trying to clear up inaccurate information before it becomes a false narrative.
Although 90% of posters are going to be believe whatever it is they want to be true so it's likely a fruitless effort.
Y'all take care.
Thanks for all the insight you've given in these threads. You clearly have some inside knowledge of the people and dynamics at OBD. And I imagine many of us, even people like me who don't post much, really appreciate getting a more balanced, reality-based take on the place.
It helps counteract the idiotic demonizing of someone like Whaley. I have zero inside knowledge, but I know that when I watched that infamous press conference, I was astonished at the position the guy had been put it. The way he was answering and non-answering was clearly dictated by incoherent policies and probably in lots of cases direct orders (e.g., you can't talk about this, you can only say this about this). Sure, he's not the most polished speaker you'll ever find, but the awkwardness of that conference felt entirely situational to me - not based on Whaley's own beliefs, knowledge, preferences or even skills. I was sure he was falling on the sword through the whole thing, and I felt for the guy. I thought it made Pegula look bad, not Whaley.
Anyway, thanks for whatever inside knowledge you are able to share. Many of us are paying a lot of attention.
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This is called PTSD...
Ha ha. I think you may have nailed it. Maybe I need treatment, not a message board discussion. I've been in love with this stupid football team since 1980. There have to be scars. My condolences to those of you that actually followed the team in the 60s and 70s as well.
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Posted · Edited by Last Guy on the Bench
I agree, though I admit I'm much less knowledgeable than you guys who follow college ball closely during the season.
I watched a bunch of his games last year. Haven't seen much this year, though I will try to catch up, but I do understand people's concerns about the drop off.
But Darnold is super young still, and I think he just has "it" - the stud QB version of "it". So a rocky-ish year doesn't bother me, and as you said, he wins.
He may have a rough first couple of years in the NFL, but I feel like he'll end up as one of the top QBs in the league.
I know it's highly unlikely the Bills could get their hands on him. Best scenario would be Browns take Rosen and the Bills pull off a mega trade with the Colts or Bears, if they are in position. Some people may hope he drops down farther based on an off year, but I doubt NFL GMs are that stupid. I don't see how he gets past the Giants.
I'd be pretty excited about Jackson, Rosen, Mayfield, or even Rudolph. But I'd be over the moon with Darnold.