Last Guy on the Bench
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Posts posted by Last Guy on the Bench
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I don't have a huge problem with Simon's post, but I guess my one question is why he is so certain that Tyrod Taylor "will never be that guy." Taylor simply wasn't going to unseat Flacco in Baltimore, so he really hasn't had a chance. I don't know what body of work in the NFL we can look to, to make the determination that he absolutely couldn't be the Bills' QB for the next 5-6 years.
I'd love it if the Bills went with a Taylor-backed-up-by-EJ lineup to start the season.
I agree. Taylor doesn't have the prototypical size and cannon, but it seems like he has enough tools to succeed at a high level, IF he has the other qualities that a Drew Brees or Russell Wilson has. And that we just don't know either way.
I have been slow to judge EJ too harshly, but I definitely think the Bills should start Taylor.
Maybe it's the hangover from watching that Three for the Show vid on TT, or maybe it is indeed shiny new toy syndrome, but TT has a presence that I don't think EJ has. EJ is a great guy with lots of charisma, but I get the feeling sometimes that he is trying too hard to be "the guy" or "the leader" - he has an image in his head that isn't totally natural to him. And it shows in the pocket. He never really looks comfortable to me (even though he does seem a bit more at ease at the end of the game). I don't think TT is trying to be something. I think he just is "the guy" and I think teammates feel it. Also, he looks super comfortable in games to me - relaxed, like things are moving more slowly and clearly for him than everyone else.
I've been deluded before, but I am way in Taylor's corner right now, though I will cheer like crazy for whomever they select as the starter.
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I appreciate the OPs time and effort in going back through the plays. I have watched them back again and compared what I see to what the OP sees and I have to say I still don't entirely agree with his conclusions and I think there are still 3 maybe 4 plays that I consider he has gone first read then run.... It is, of course, simply impossible for us to know when we don't have the play calls and the route concepts in front of us and I think the OP's interpretations of what he is seeing are an entirely valid interpretation although I don't necessarily agree with them.
I still feel I need to see more of him hanging in there and getting to his 2nd and 3rd guy. If he can show something that makes me more comfortable that he can on Thursday (and again it will be impossible to absolutely know for sure) then I will be calling for him to be named the starting Quarterback after Thursday's game.
I've been optimistic all summer of making the play-offs based on the idea of a Quarterback just being an accurate distributor and game manager.... if Tyrod Taylor means we have a Quarterback who is in himself a weapon to add to all our other offensive weapons and this defense? We might be Superbowl contenders. I'm trying not to get too carried away but the possibilities are mouthwatering.
Thanks. I'd be curious to hear more about the 3 or 4 plays you saw as first read then run. Not to argue - just for my own learning.
I agree that all of these comments are interpretations of something that's very hard to decode without extensive technical football knowledge (which I don't have) and specific knowledge of the team's goals and tactics on a given play (which none of us has). Basically, I just watched the guy's head to see what he was apparently looking at. Not too sophisticated as analyses go.
Also, I do think there is a good argument to be made that even if Taylor is looking at a few areas of the field before taking off, he might be giving up on them too quickly - maybe he needs more patience, or maybe he needs to be willing to throw more often to WRs that aren't wide open? I don't know.
What makes me optimistic is that: a) he still doesn't have much NFL playing time, so he should have some good room to grow - whatever his ceiling is, he can't possibly have hit it yet; and b) there's a spark to the way he plays that will energize both the team and the fans - whether that spark translates into winning, we'll see.
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I want to upload a photo from my PC but it doesn't let me.
Ah, you're right, Fixxxer. I was watching plays on the condensed version, which only shows the original angle without the replay (usually). But I just went back and watched the full broadcast version of that play. When they show the replay, it's from behind the play, not on the sideline. And you're absolutely right - you can see Gray wide open right near the end zone and he is turned toward TT and looking at him. Would have been an easy throw and waltz into the the end zone for the TD. When Taylor starts running Gray then turns away and runs into the end zone, which is all I could see from the original angle.
Anyway, my main point isn't that Taylor is reading everything well - too early to say, and not enough info anyway. He might be missing all sorts of things downfield, he might be too hesitant to throw guys open, and/or he might be too impatient. The only thing I could tell for sure in the little breakdown that I did was that he was not just making one read and then taking off. He is definitely going through progressions regularly. How well he is doing so is another question.
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Thanks for the post, OP. Cheers.
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Great post and thanks for the time you took. That was was terrific.
On the first scramble/run, TT said that the Panthers took away Robert Woods or knocked him out of his route, which was his read so he started running.
Interesting. That makes sense. Just went back and looked. Woods goes in motion to the left, then at the snap cuts back to the right behind the LOS and then starts running along the right LOS sort of in parallel to TT's rollout. But the LB gets on Woods right away and kind of wraps his arms around him (could have called holding). So Woods has no chance for a reception let alone any RAC. However, Woods being Woods, when he sees that TT is going to run it, he starts blocking the LB instead of trying to escape him and drives the guy 10 yards downfield, helping extend TT's run considerably.
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He's fun to watch, but come regular season when coaches can game plan for him, he'll be shut down. He's also small; he'll last about 5-6 games.
Great analysis. Guess we'll see.
Much appreciated. I'm glad you had the same opinion of the horse collar play. People kept saying he had gray open but I didn't think gray turned his head or body until after TT was past the LOS running. To me it looked like he was definitely looking to throw but no one was open or ready for a pass. But I don't have a way to replay the game, so I don't know if I am just misremembering this play or what.
Good memory. Just went back and looked. It's kind of hard to tell, because Gray runs upfield offscreen right away. But TT is definitely looking his direction when he hesitates at the LOS, and right toward the end of the play when Gray comes back into view he is in the end zone running away from TT with his back to him. So unless Gray had been open and facing TT earlier when he was offscreen, TT had no chance to throw to him. The ball would have hit Gray in the back of the head.
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I was curious about the impression a lot of people seem to have that Taylor makes one read and if he doesn't like it takes off out of the pocket. So I went back and watched each of his passing or running plays in the game several times, paying particular attention to his line of sight - what he was looking at when. I didn't find the one read and run pattern AT ALL. Here is my breakdown of each of his passing and running plays in the game. Sorry it's so long, but I got into it.
First Drive
1st & 10, Bills 45 – Play action, immediately rolls out to the right – looks either designed or like he decided to keep it right away because he had so much room to run on that side. Glances up the right side of the field a little bit while he’s running, but would never have had time to set his feet anyway because the LDE was all over him. He just had to sprint past the dude. Picked up 10 yards.
1st & 10 Carolina 45 – Under center, stays in pocket, looks to the right and center then launches it to Goodwin going deep down the left sideline - incomplete. Great read. Goodwin could have caught it, though Taylor could have placed it inside a little more to make it easier. Definitely not his first read, unless he was purposely looking everyone off. Either way, not a stare and throw at all.
2nd & 10 Carolina 45 – Shotgun, fakes the handoff, immediately rolls to the right – not under pressure, this is designed. Does seem to hesitate while he looks up the field a little, clearly has the option to throw, but keeps it and runs after a brief scan. Seems to me that on this kind of play, he is never going to be looking way over to the left anyway, because it would be against the grain of the way he is running. I don’t think it is exactly first read and run, though, either. He is not in the pocket. He seems to be scanning the half of the field he is running toward and has the option to toss it to someone or keep it. He keeps it to good effect. Picks up about 18 yards (plus an additional penalty tacked on).
2nd & 10, Carolina 12 – Under center, drops straight back, looks downfield to the right, then looks over to the right flat at Williams swinging out of the backfield, then looks straight down the center of the field. Sees a big hole open up in front of him and takes off running, hesitates before crossing the LOS and either thinks about throwing or fakes it to buy himself more space to run. Gains 9 yards (plus horse collar penalty tacked on). Definitely not a one read play – he looked at three distinct places on the field before he took off.
Second Drive
2nd & 8, Bills 12 – Under center, drops straight back, looks left, sees Goodwin open 6 yards in front of the LOS and throws it to him, Goodwin cuts back across the middle of the field and gains 28 yards. This was a first read, but the read was open so he threw it. Crisp throw.
3rd & 4, Bills 46 – Shotgun, drops straight back, very quick glance to the right, then looks downfield middle. In the meantime, the RDE has blown by Darryl Johnson (listed as a guard, but playing left tackle here) and is about to take Taylor’s head off when Taylor makes his most ridiculous move of the night. He takes a quick step to the right like he is running away from him then does a supernaturally quick U-turn and runs back to the left while the RDE dives helplessly trying to tackle the empty space where Taylor used to be. Taylor has just purchased himself a vast amount of real estate as the defense has been pulled heavily to the right. He could clearly run it for a good gain, but keeps his head up and sees Williams about 12 yards in front of him and coolly feathers it to him. Williams chugs for another 10 yards before he’s knocked out of bounds. 13 yard gain (if that math seems strange, it’s because Taylor was way behind the line when he tossed it the 12 yards to Williams).
1st & 10, Carolina 41 – Play action, rolls to the right. He clearly checks out Hogan running a pattern down the right sideline first. Then he swings his head toward the center and is looking at Gray who has run a short pattern from the right TE position and Mulligan who has run a deeper pattern crossing the field from the left TE position. Taylor obviously doesn’t like what he sees, but he takes one more hesitation right before the LOS (either for a fake or because he is still looking for somewhere to throw) then runs across the line and slides for a gain of four. As on most previous plays, he checks out different areas of the field quite quickly, so if you don’t look carefully, it can seem like he has a quick trigger to run, but he is definitely not just looking at one receiver and then going.
3rd & 5, Carolina 36 – Shotgun, looks immediately to the left where Brown has swung out into the flat. Throws it to him – soft throw that lets him keep his momentum. Brown runs for the first down and a yard or two extra.
2nd & 3, Carolina 23 – Play action, bootleg to the left. This is an immediate bootleg, clearly a called play. He is not even looking downfield, just trying to get the first down. This is that crazy play where the DB hustles up in run support and dives at Taylor’s legs, knocking him off balance and seemingly stopping him two yards short. But as Taylor is falling he does a little hop back to plant his feet then dives forward for two yards and the first down before falling out of bounds. This dude is fun to watch.
1st & 10, Carolina 20 – Shotgun, drops back a few yards, looks downfield middle, then looks left and throws to Deonte Thompson running straight down the sideline. Thompson has his man beat by a step. Ball hits his fingertips in the endzone, but he can’t pull it in. Good read, pretty good throw. No chance for an int. Could have been caught, though it would have been a nice catch. Taylor holds his head in frustration.
Third Drive
1st & 10, Carolina 46 – Shotgun, looks downfield middle, seems to glance very quickly to the short left as well, then pivots to the right and tosses it to Brown sidling out into the flat. The Panthers respond quickly and Brown gets nailed behind the LOS. Not sure this was a great decision, but it definitely wasn’t the first read. Hogan was open for at least a few yard gain in the left middle (I think this is where Taylor’s quick glance to the left went), but Brown did seem to have some space in front of him to work with – it just disappeared very quickly, so I can see why Taylor threw it there. Either way, he was scanning the field, again, before throwing to Brown.
2nd and 11, Carolina 47 – Shotgun, stays calm in a nice pocket, looks downfield right, then downfield middle, then short middle where he throws to Hogan a couple of yards in front of the LOS, Hogan runs laterally and is tackled for a short gain. Taylor held the ball in the pocket for four seconds before dumping it to Hogan. He looked right and middle, but never looked left. If he had, he would have seen Brown swinging out of the backfield with MILES of space in front of him. Brown would have been off to the races. The slot DB was at least 10 yards away from him, and I think that’s the only guy he would have had to beat for a huge gain. Too bad.
3rd & 8, Carolina 44 – Shotgun, drops back a couple extra yards, looking downfield left. Again, Darryl Johnson at LT gets beat on the edge, and the RDE is on Taylor within two seconds. Taylor quickly steps up into the pocket. The pocket is now pretty clean, due to the step up and to the fact that Johnson has subtly hooked his dude from behind and then used his momentum to push him to the ground. Taylor could, at this point, have settled in the pocket for a little longer, but he sees a lot of space off to the left and he heads for it quickly. As soon as he is clear of the original pressure, his head is up and he is looking downfield left again, though this time more toward the middle than the sideline. It’s only after taking a measured, jogging look downfield that he makes the decision to hit full speed and cross the LOS. Picks up about 5 yards.
4th & 3, Carolina 39 – Shotgun, steps back, sits in the pocket calmly, very quick glance right then looks over to Thompson running down the left sideline again. Lofts it toward him quickly (he only held the ball for two seconds) and overthrows him by a couple of yards. Thompson had half a step on his man, but he seemed to me to slow a bit as he looked up for the ball. Wasn’t a great throw, landed just out of bounds. Thompson could have stayed at full speed and maybe given himself a shot. But it would have to have been a great catch – not sure anyone would have gotten to it. Still, a reasonable decision, though not high percentage. Just not a great throw.
Summary
Overall, a few of the times he “left the pocket” early seemed like designed rollouts – don’t think there was supposed to be a pocket. At other times, Taylor does like to buy himself some time and space by slipping out of the pocket – and perhaps he does do this too early at times. Nevertheless, at no time was he just making one read and then taking off and running. He always looked at at least 2 or 3 sections of the field (except when he threw to his first read), and he always had his head up when running. He also often hesitated before crossing the LOS, trying to find someone to throw to downfield.
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Tarpley looks the part out there. He's instinctive in space and has the long arms and I don't know how he will be against the run but at least he's wide shouldered for filling the run gaps. Looks like a modern ILB for the passing era. Very interested to see him the rest of preseason.
Yep, he caught my eye the other night, and I think someone on MMQB said the same thing.
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I think he might be my favorite Bill at the moment. I love watching him play.
This was a very forward thinking move, especially given that he would only have been an RFA after this year, so the team would still have had lots of leverage.
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not only is it not uncommon, it is standard.
Is this true? If I remember correctly, which I might not, wasn't there something a few years back around teams that were charging for practice having to let other teams' scouts attend. Thought that this was in response to the general policy that teams could not attend each other's free, open practices.
Maybe I'm mis-remembering, or something has changed since then?
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EJ was never supposed to be some great blue chip talent that would come in and be the man at QB from day one. Around the league that QB draft class was almost universally viewed as mediocre and uninspiring.
Just go and read this list of names from EJ's QB class:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/year/2013/quarterbacks
Had the Bills not taken EJ in round one it's likely there would have been zero QBs taken in the first round that year. That tells you something, given how many get picked every year in round one.
He's basically been exactly what the scouting report said he would be. On the other hand, looking at that list there has to be ONE guy who can make it right? lol
Yeah, but unfortunately it's probably going to be Geno Smith.
Even when he sucks (like the game against us in NJ last year), he still looks like a quarterback - wings it downfield, doesn't look particularly rattled, even when he is screwing up. I think he is going to turn into the one decent QB from that year.
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Tyler Dunne is working, man.
I like that his articles always seem to add information or an interview that wasn't from all the regurgitated press conferences (though of course he includes info from them too).
He's an actual reporter so far. Good stuff.
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If he were a free agent, I think a team like the Bills would offer him a five or six year contract worth 22 million a year with a huge chunk guaranteed in a heartbeat. Maybe more. Put him on the Bills right now, and I think we'd have a good shot at winning a couple Super Bowls during that contract, even assuming we had to give up a very good player or two due to cap considerations.
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You're probably right, but there are only 32 HC jobs in the NFL. Guys who are in the first contract of their first NFL HC job rarely walk away. What was his end game? Why jeopardize the position at all? New owner that didn't hire him, didn't make the playoffs. I think it's possible that he just wanted out.
I think he was absolutely convinced he had the Jets job (unless he got an even better offer from one of the other teams). He seems like a very ambitious guy - not likely to walk away from something just because he is unhappy. There are definitely people who would do that (I think that's what Mularkey did), but I don't think he's one of them.
Marrone got burned by relying on inside info that Woody was ready to offer him the Jets job. That info was probably true at the time - but it was a non-binding intention and Woody changed his mind. I have to believe that Marrone is absolutely kicking himself. But he has to put on a good face in public.
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And Marrone did that quite a bit in NO as the OC. Of course he also went to a bowl game with Cuse. So the old coaches also understood getting to the playoffs which not for a crap game against Oakland and Texans might have happened.
Well once, actually. His first year, 2006, the Saints made the conference championship game before getting thwacked by the Bears. They missed the playoffs in the 2007 and 2008. Then he left for Syracuse.
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Riddle me this: If Kraft is convinced that there was no tampering (which he has said), why were the two employees suspended without pay by the team, even prior to the NFL decision? What were the team's grounds for suspending them?
Serious question, I don't remember reading anything about this, but the team must have had some grounds. Exposing the balls to germs in the restroom?
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@theMMQB: You got yourself a throwback, #BillsMafia. @JennyVrentas on how Nick O'Leary stepped out of his grandfather's shadow. http://t.co/5VydmNjofI
Damn you're quick, Yolo.
Was just about to post this. Great article - everyone should read it.
I love this pick. I remember O'Leary really jumped out at me when I was watching a lot of EJ video two years ago. I think he will be a great fit in Greg Roman's offense. He'll get some play.
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Amazing article and video. Thanks!
I was surprised by the gracious comments underneath from a Pats fan, a Fins fan, and Seahawks fan.
I know that just because we appreciate who a person is and the vibe he brings to the the team doesn't necessarily translate to wins (hello, Ryan Fitzpatrick). But it sure makes the ride more fun anyway.
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I'm not really in favor of this trade, for most of the reasons other people have cited (age, Kiko's ability, value of RB, cap, etc.).
BUT, I've been quite interested in the argument around how much running backs are actually worth. It got me thinking about what kind of an offensive bump we might see from upgrading to Shady. Is an improvement of 50 yards per game too much to expect?
A few more big runs? A few more drives kept alive? A little more room for the receivers and QB to work with, as defenses key in on Shady? I'm not sure 50 yards per game is outrageous to expect.
And that would be significant. Last year we ranked 26th in the league in total YPG with 318.5. If we were 50 better at 368.5, we would have ranked 10th, just in front of the Giants and behind the Seahawks.
If Shady can move us from 26th in the league to 10th, then I might have to change my opinion. (Though I still don't know about the long-term implications of the trade.)
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Interesting answers. Thanks, everyone. There's something about him that kind of intrigues me.
But I am wary when fans of a QB's team aren't in love with him. I remember feeling really good about everything I was seeing and reading about EJ except that the people who had watched Florida State were so lukewarm about him. He had good stats, good athletic ability, smarts, character, etc. But fans who watch someone for a few years generally get a feel for when something is missing.
Sims is interesting since he only has the one year. The fact that he converted from RB and ended up the starting QB for Alabama of all places, with so little experience, really impresses me. I wonder if he isn't anywhere near his ceiling. Don't see any way he is even a mid-high draft pick. But it would be fun to take a flyer on him or someone like him in rounds 5-7 and see if he continues to develop.
Not to mention, if Bill from NYC actually likes a small, skill-position player, that goes a long way in my book. There must be something good about Sims.
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I was curious to hear more from people who follow Alabama about their view on Blake Sims.
On Murph's show, Greg Gabriel said that he throws the nicest, most pro-ready ball of the QBs at the Senior Bowl.
I know he's short, but I like the way the ball comes out of his hand and he seems accurate from a variety of spots, body positions, when he's running, etc. Reminds me a little of Brees and Wilson. I know he threw some awful interceptions in the bowl game this year, though. But his interception total for the year was low, if I'm not mistaken.
Would love to hear what people who have spent a lot of time watching him think.
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He didn't say that, did he? In fact, in the ESPN article I linked to above, he said that he likes the ball to be inflated "as much as possible" basically, and he was complaining when NFL officials always lower the pressure to bring it within that 1 PSI accepted range. He was also saying there is no real competitive advantage to inflating the ball MORE...it's just how he likes it. So the maximum PSI limit should be eliminated in Rodgers view, while the lower limit should be retained. Violating the lower limit is where the advantage is to be gained for most guys, most of the time according to Rodgers.
Did he admit to illegally over-inflating balls? I didn't catch that if he has said that in the past!
I thought he also said somewhere they will over-inflate and see if the ref catches it - I assume they meant before the pre-game measurement. If that's the case (and I could be wrong), it is dodgy, but much less of a cheat than tampering with the balls after they have been measured and marked. The pre-measurement version is more like an OL holding and hoping the ref doesn't notice, in my opinion.
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I asked this before and don't know the answer to it. Are coordinators on guaranteed contracts, too? HC are. I would find it hard to believe position coaches are. Not sure whether Schwartz would be.
I'm not sure about coordinators' contracts, but I thought I read that Schwartz still had big money coming from Detroit this year.
Why EJ Manuel should start in Week 1
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Because he has apparently been getting way fewer snaps with the 1s than either TT or Cassel over the last few weeks of camp?
Some people (including Rex) have come up with somewhat tortured rationales for this, but I don't see any way to read it other than that he has been behind the other two in the coaches' minds. Doesn't mean he has been out of the competition, and doesn't mean things won't/can't change. But I think anyone who argues that he has been even with or ahead of the other two QBs is fooling themselves.
Credit to Rex, though for staying flexible and giving EJ a shot this weekend. I don't believe he had this in mind all along. Otherwise he would have kept the fairly even practice rotation he had earlier in the year.
If EJ can really pull it together to become a more confident, accurate, and comfortable QB, I will be surprised at this point but very, very happy. Hard not to root for the guy, even beyond the fact that he's a Buffalo Bill. But I'd say the same thing about TT, and I think he's got more of an NFL QB temperament and brain than EJ does. We'll see. Most exciting season (in advance) in recent memory!