Watkins101
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Posts posted by Watkins101
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2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I think he was. If not, why did you wait for guarantees to kick in?
I can only imagine that something happened in the offseason that either hit critical mass or exacerbated the fault lines.
Now, long term, the team might see benefit: they were already over the salary cap for 2025 and likely got a top 45 pick
But this is going to hurt short term
Could have been a difference in return, maybe we wouldn’t have gotten much at all if we traded beforehand, and Beane preferred getting a second.
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17 hours ago, sunshynman said:
I bet that is why they never reveal the rules for the picks. It allows them to mess around with them and leak some crap like playing time matters. They ought to dish out the picks biased purely on record. Worst team gets the best pick. Every team over 500 nothing.
Isn’t that just how the draft works already? Why even do Comp picks at that point.
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Yeah, but just to sell it probably.
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11 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:
What does the 5th year option for him cost? Probably a ton for an above average RB.
It depends on a number of things, including play time and pro bowl selections.
If the player played less than 75% of the offensive snaps for 2 seasons and less than 50% for the 3 seasons, it’d be the average of the 3rd-25th highest paid RBs over the last 5 years. If they played 75% or more snaps, it’s the average of the 3rd-20th paid RBs over the last 5 years. I didn’t do the actual average of these numbers, If they made a pro bowl, they’d get the transition tag equivalent (just under 10 mil). If they were selected for multiple pro bowls, it’s the equivalent of the franchise tag (~12 mil for Rbs). These pro bowls only count if they were the original selection, not alternates.
Najee Harris went to one probowl, but was not the original selection, so he qualifies only for the playing time. His salary on the 5th year option would have been 6.79 million, which would have made him the 12th highest paid RB.
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On 4/27/2024 at 10:06 PM, ngbills said:
Coleman replaced Davis. Samuel replaced Harty. So yes.
Samuel was paid about twice as much as Harty was, and at a longer contract. He wasn’t a Harty replacement, he was brought in to help mitigate the loss of Davis and Diggs. Beane likely already was planning on moving Diggs at the time of the signing.
Ultimately, blaming Diggs for the state of the Wr room is silly. Beane is the one in control of the situation. He brought in Diggs, while knowing there were some character concerns/issues with teammates in Minnesota. He built the recieving room so blaming it on one player is ridiculous when it was him who brought the player in. It’s one thing if there was an unexpected suspension of your #1, then you could blame it on the player, but Beane is the one that holds the cards here. If Diggs was an issue, he should have addressed the issue more by bringing in replacements.
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I keep seeing people comparing fans’ reactions to the Coleman pick to the wrong Josh outcry when Allen was drafted. This seems utterly ridiculous to me, as their situations are pretty far apart. Josh Allen was as boom-or-bust of a prospect as they come. He was most likely to either be a star or a complete waste of a pick, and there was unlikely to be any Inbetween. Whereas Coleman, his ceiling according to most is a 2, and his floor is a depth receiver, a red zone threat with good hands, but not enough impact in the middle of the field to be a starter. Really am not seeing the comparison at all.
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Doubt the plan would’ve involved both Coleman and Samuel if Diggs was still around.
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Good, we needed some IOL depth.
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8 minutes ago, Brandon said:
It may be that NFL teams just don't like him, but before anyone gloats, I would offer the peanut gallery a cautionary tale of a guy named Khalil Shakir. He was another prospect who was generally regarded as a day two prospect who got caught up in the numbers of a deep WR draft class and fell into the 5th round as teams had already filled their needs at the position. That type of thing can happen in a deep draft class.
I don't know for certain if that type of scenario is playing out here for Franklin or whether teams just don't like him as much, but it wouldn't surprise me.
Another good example (albeit a bit different) is DK Metcalf. He was very highly touted by draft pundits and some had him going in the top 10. He fell to the bottom of the second where he was taken by the Seahawks. I’m a re-draft he’d likely go top 10, if not too 15.
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Starting to get into the potential trade up zone here.
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Just now, 5ths the charm said:
Wait, we took him because NE wanted him? Is that how we scout?
I think the idea is that we didn’t trade down again because NE wanted him.
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
The run on DBs is very much on.
Good, McDermott can maximize value with Dbs taken in the 5th-7th. I’d much rather bring in another receiver or some DL help early.
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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
We literally have the best TE room in the NFL with Kincaid and Knox. And sorry, there is no way Balt has a better group than us. And you are posting this BEFORE the Bills address the WR position too.
6 NFL tight ends outproduced Dawson and Dalton Combined last year. Sure, Kincaid could take another step next year and this could become true, but right now, it is definitely not the case. Baltimore also has Flowers and Likely, which defeats the argument for Dawson Knox being the best #2 in the league.
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52 minutes ago, The Wiz said:
I honestly can't see them picking at 33. They could have drafted at 32 and got someone with a 5th year option. Now they don't have that by moving one pick. They are going to take calls all day and move back again IMO.
It’s definitely still possible. Beane could have viewed the trade as moving down 1 pick, and only losing the 5th year option, in exchange for later moving from 95 to ~85.
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8 hours ago, LEBills said:
Round 5 gonna be lit!
Doubt it. Beane likes to trade up in the 2nd-4th. I’d guess we end up with 2 5ths.
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20 minutes ago, Rigotz said:
I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.
It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.
So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.
I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.
Totals:
11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).
6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).
2021:
1st Round
Ja'Marr Chase ++
Jaylen Waddle ++
DeVonta Smith ++
Kadarius Toney
Rashod Bateman
2nd Round
Elijah Moore
Rondale Moore
D'Wayne Eskridge
Tutu Atwell
Terrace Marshall Jr
2020:
1st Round
Henry Ruggs
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb ++
Jalen Reagor
Justin Jefferson ++
Brandon Aiyuk ++
2nd Round
Tee Higgins ++
Michael Pittman ++
Laviska Shenault
KJ Hamler
Chase Claypool
Van Jefferson
Denzel Mims
2019:
1st Round
Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
2nd Round
Deebo Samuel ++
AJ Brown ++
Mecole Hardman
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Parris Campbell
Andy Isabella
DK Metcalf ++
2018:
1st Round:
DJ Moore ++
Calvin Ridley
2nd Round:
Courtland Sutton
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Anthony MIller
James Washintgon
DJ Chark
2017:
1st Round:
Corey Davis
Mike Williams ++
John Ross
2nd Round:
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
2016:
1st Round:
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
2nd Round:
Sterling Shepard
Michael Thomas +?
Tyler Boyd
2015:
1st Round:
Amari Cooper ++
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
2nd Round:
Devin Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham
So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career.
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Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting.
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17 minutes ago, JPP said:
Exactly.....Not a huge McD fan all in all....but this past season completely demolished with all the injuries....imagine if a fully healthy Milano-Bernard-White and CBs going in/out of injury and all the other defensive players....no doubt we would of seen this team in the SB IMO...
I doubt it. Milano is a difference maker sure and Bernard certainly would have been a help. Tre however, had been a non-factor since his ACL tear. The defense may have played better with them in the lineup, but without them they were allowing 7.7 yards per play against the chiefs. I don’t think adding them in does enough to stop the chiefs.
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21 hours ago, krf139 said:
Lost in the Diggs news of this week is how wrong the Buffalo media have been about Diggs over the past year:
- WGR hosts routinely dismissed callers who raised Diggs' behavior as an issue
- Team beat reporters took pride in pushing back on the national narrative that Diggs was an issue and could be traded. They would boast about how they're local, on the ground and more tuned into the team. They'd highlight the cap hit and claim that anyone from the national media who suggested a Diggs trade didn't understand the cap implications. They loved going on national shows to tell everyone how much they know about the team and how the national narrative about a Diggs issue was wrong and potential trade wasn't happening. Matt Bove even tweeted that Diggs wasn't getting traded literally less than 10 minutes before the trade was reported
- Tim Graham (who I previously thought was one of the few good ones) is now reporting how Allen snapped at Diggs after the Week 1 loss to the Jets. It's such a disservice and somewhat disingenuous to withhold information like this until he's gone. It highlights how many of these folks care far more about maintaining relationships/access to the players than holistically reporting what's going on with the team - especially a week 1 incident involving a player who was the talk of the offseason
It's unfortunate we don't have media members covering the team who we can trust. I can only wonder what will continue to come out about the Diggs situation, or what would come out about McDermott re: 13 seconds if he gets fired.
To be fair, having more articles about how broken Diggs’ relationship with the team was would not help his trade value.
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8 hours ago, DJB said:
WR and S spot for the Bills 😣
Not sad at all about safety, there’s better positions to spend firsts on, there’s usually only one or two safeties that go in the first.
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I think a lot of fans are overvaluing him based on his later season production. We’ve seen this before with Multiple different recievers. Robert Foster in 2018 had ~500 yards in the final 8 games and fans thought he could be a 1b/2 receiver, instead he didn’t even reach 100 yards the next year. Gabe Davis had the huge Chiefs game and fans thought he’d be a great 1b (that could be a #1 on many teams). The next season, the discussion was whether he was good enough to be a 2.
I think he is a great 4 Wr who has a good chance at being a good 3 Wr. I think he can get 300-600 yards and be a decent weapon. If we don’t draft/sign a 2 and/or 3 he may get more production in the regular season, but come playoff time our offense will suffer. (Unless Kincaid turns into Kelce)
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The Chief’s only regulation TD was less than 20 yards off a turnover. The 49ers defense had 2 turnovers, 3 sacks, forced 5 punts and allowed 19 regulation points. This is a defense that was key to bringing the 49ers to the superbowl. Meanwhile, the Bills had 1 turnover, 0 sacks, and forced 1 punt while allowing 27 points. The 49ers allowed an average of 5.8 yards per play, meanwhile the Bills allowed 7.7. How does Sean McDermott still have a job when he was leading the Bills defense?
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17 minutes ago, Process said:
The guy gets praised as an offensive genius and rightfully so, but he sure does choke in big games.
3 superbowls with double digit leads. 3 losses. (2 as HC)
Several examples of players not executing last night, including fumbles and missed passes, so not all coaching. But it starts at the top and Bills fans should know, it's hard to overcome a HC that puts the team in bad spots.
Questionable calls on multiple key third downs, not prepared at all for KC blitz
Stretch where it seemed like he got away from the run too much
Could have got the ball back before halftime with 50 seconds and 1TO, but elected to let the clock run out
Chose to receive in OT, which is inexcusable IMO. And then made it even worse by kicking the FG instead of going for a TD
Players didn't even know the overtime rules until they saw it on the jumbotron before OT
I don’t think that it’s inexcusable, there’s pros and cons to recieving or deferring. Deferring, you have more information so you know if you need to go for it on 4th down or not. However, if you were to both score a touchdown or a field goal, then going first gives you a big advantage as whoever scores next would win.
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26 minutes ago, pigpen65 said:
Chiefs play mistake free in big games. The Bills don't.
This wasn’t really mistake free football for the Chiefs, they had a pair of turnovers last night. In the last 3 seasons, the Bills have had 6 playoff games and had a total of 4 turnovers in the playoffs. 3 of those were in a Dolphin’s game that I would hardly call a “big game”. The Chiefs had more turnovers in that one game than the Bills have had in their last 3 playoff losses combined. The bigger difference is the Chiefs defense doesn’t just get ran through in the playoffs against a good offense. Our Dline disappears and we don’t get any semblance of pressure, and the secondary already struggles to cover elite weapons such as Kelce, Hill, or Chase. In the Bills’ last two losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs, the Chiefs averaged 7.6 and 7.7 yards per play. The Bengals loss was a more reasonable 5.8, but that is still not a number that indicates the defense is doing its job.
Sure, we could say that we lost because of Bass’ mistake, but that seems pretty silly considering the Chiefs still has nearly 2 minutes left and we’re averaging 7.7 Yards per play. The Bills couldn’t even get the Chiefs to third down when they knew they were running, little to no chance we stop the Chiefs from getting a field goal. You could also blame the offense for barely not getting that touchdown, whether it be Diggs dropping the pass, Allen not taking the safer option, or The oline for allowing the pressure, but if you’re calling that much a mistake, the Chiefs clearly made plenty last night (2 turnovers and a few sacks). Difference is, they have a defense that doesn’t just fold, and made up for the turnovers by forcing 3 and outs. They don’t allow 13 seconds to happen. In this Postseason, of any of the Chief’s opponents, the Bills scored the most and allowed the most points to the Chiefs.
You say the Bills make mistakes in big games, and the Chiefs don’t but I disagree. Both teams make mistakes for sure, but the bigger difference between the two is that the Bills’ defense disappears in big games, the Chiefs’ doesn’t.
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THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Except 0 LTs in the NFL make 30 million, the most expensive is at 25, and only 5 make 20 or more. There’s 1 DE that makes 30 or more, and only 12 that break 20. Wr is closer, 3 make 30+, and 18 make 20 or more. No team is spending anywhere near that kinda money on 4 players.