Flip Johnson
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Posts posted by Flip Johnson
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Yes, 9-7 is not an earth-shattering won-loss record.
However, this is a turning point for the city and the general perception of the franchise as a cursed afterthought.
The truth is the Bills haven't actually been bad since Gailey's last year. They were bad for about twelve years and they have actually been right in the middle of the league for the last five years. They are 33-31 since 2014, which again, is not earth shattering but it is also not bad, and not in keeping with the national perspective on the team.
That record is better than (for example)
Ravens
Chargers
Titans
Raiders
Dolphins
as well as the franchises that have been truly bad like the Jets, Browns, Jaguars.
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4 hours ago, Foreigner said:
He may get along by his coaching, but all the personnel decisions made this year have been
so bad. And even though Beane is GM don't think for one second that McDermott didn't
have his fingerprints over everything that goes on.
Who do you think is calling the shots, Pegula, Brandon? Please, they have as much knowledge
running a football team, as they do a hockey team.
"All the personnel decisions made this year have been so bad."
Hard to know where to start, but let's try Micah Hyde the pro bowl safety? Or Jordan Poyer who had a pick-6 yesterday? Or Tre White the potential DROY? Or really just the entire secondary?
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1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:
Sadly, this season will be known more for the disaster it is 3-4 years down the road. The increasing number of excellent college players is slipping dramatically with each meaningless win in a Draft year where we’ve garnered so many high pics at such a great cost. ‘The Process’ is pure Fools Gold. We simply aren’t talented enough to be considered contending, and now we likely won’t be for a few more years either. QB, DE, DL, OL, RB & WR need upgrades and more than a few players played their last Home Game yesterday. Our wins this year were all unnecessarily close and gifted with multiple T/O’s and ridiculously long FG’s. Our losses? No T/Os and blown out of stadiums.
Even if we somehow receive a holiday miracle to break the 17 year streak for one more hour, we’re in worse shape talent wise than we were before ‘the Process’ started shredding the roster. I’ll go on record as saying we won’t make the playoffs and the result of this tease will negatively impact the team for years to come.
Thank you for this truly stupid take.
Nobody is arguing that the 2017 Bills are loaded with pro bowlers, but there is every reason to think the 2018 team will be more talented.
Let's see - in year one of the McDermott/Beane era the team has:
- Shed its worst contracts and will have flexibility in 2018.
- Picked four starters with it's first four draft picks.
- Is sitting on two #1s, and two #2s in 2018.
- Is on the verge of breaking a 17-year drought.
It's been a real disaster.
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One week at a time.
The concerning thing if you're a Pats fan is that their WRs are not winning one-on-one outside. They are all system players even Cooks - Edelman was the guy who could truly separate. The Bills corners shut down the Pats WRs, as did Miami. The difference is that the Bills didn't generate any offense and they had to play against Gronk.
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In terms of statistical probabilities this will be the biggest December home game the Bills have had in a long time.
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Props to UB - Leipold has them pointed in the right direction. If not for the QB injuries this year, the team could have gone 9-3.
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You can like it or not, but when McDermott says "we need to work harder," "we need to watch the film and improve," and "I'm confident in the guys that we have" he is not joking. It may be coach-speak, but it is also 100% his mentality.
We are not changing the QB or trading for a WR over the bye week.
It would be nice to have talent oozing out of every position, but the truth is that teaching Logan Thomas how to hold the edge for that extra half second or teaching Zay Jones how to run that fade route is the difference in this game. Those little things can happen during the course of the year.
Furthermore, good teams figure out what they have in the first half of the year and try to have that solidified for the 2nd half. If we can get to 5-3 at the midway point (and personally I think 6-2 is in play), we are going to be in position.
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The formula is similar in that it runs contrary to the idea that you need a HOF pocket passer to win big.
Talent wise.........this Bills defense is not nearly as physical/dominant...........they give up a ton of yards........they aren't the "don't give up an inch of ground" smothering style of defense that Seattle had.
And the Bills run game is different........effective, but not as punishing/physical.
This Bills team is also a very old one..........second oldest team in the NFL.........that 2012 Seahawks team was the youngest in the league..
That's a big issue when you are built around defense.......because while a defense is easy to turn around, they are hard to sustain.
Age is probably the biggest reason why this and the "1988 Bills" comparisons that have been floated out there don't really fit.........this team isn't necessarily a launch point for anything long term, it's built to win now.
The formula is my point.
The difference between the average age of the Bills (26.7) and the league middle Broncos (26.0) is basically negligible.
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I think we are all wondering whether the Bills as currently constituted can sustain success.
Thinking about this took me back to something McCoy said earlier in the year. He made the comment at the very beginning of the season that the team was built to win like the old Seahawks.
As the season takes shape it is easy to see what he was talking about.
The 2012 Seahawks:
- Had a very mobile QB (rookie Russell Wilson) who attempted fewer than 400 passes but could hit big plays when necessary.
- They were the #3 rushing team in the league (led by Marshawn Lynch), and their rushing attempts outweighed passing attempts 536/404.
- Their WRs were a collection of random guys - no one on the team had more than 50 catches.
- The backbone of the team was its defense - only 245 points allowed.
- The defense was led by a ballhawking secondary and a strong front four.
- They played great special teams and minimized turnovers (only 18 on the season) and ended +13.
- Because of their limited passing attack, they played numerous games where it looked like they had no offense, especially early in the year (road losses by scores like 20-16, 19-13, 13-6)
- They dominated on their home field.
2012 turned into a wild card team, and was putting up big scores (remember the 50-17 game in Toronto?) by the second half of the year.
It was not until 2013 that the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl and won - by that time Wilson had developed as a passer and the Legion of Boom had fully developed.
Obviously, Seattle has managed to sustain success but the recipe has changed over the years as the defense has gotten older and Wilson has become a top-level talent.
Here are the stats from that season:
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This thought experiment could be played out for virtually every team in the NFL.
What if our best player gets hurt? What happens then?
What happens if the Falcons lose Julio Jones, the Bengals lose AJ Green, the Pats lose Gronk, the Raiders lose Cooper, the Texans lose Hopkins, etc. etc.
The answer is, it would be bad.
In the Bills case, we had a great backup RB last year in Gillislee, and when McCoy went out (Miami, NE) it was bad.
If it happened this year, they would activate Banyard, maybe pick up a guy off the street, and hope the injury is short term.
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Not the same - Glenn doesn't have a long history of missing games, nor does he have any suspensions. He is just a a good player making market value trying to battle a legitimate injury.
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Frank Reich
Stevie Johnson
Billy Brooks
Wayne Patrick
Don Beebe
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I know everyone seems to struggle with nuance here.
Up until recently "tanking" was not part of the sports vocabulary. You can build something without tanking. That is what the Bills are doing.
- The Bills already have 6 picks in the top 100 next year. They will have great flexibility to go after a QB if they are dissatisfied with Taylor at the end of 2017.
- Peterman was picked to be a backup. Mid-round rookie QBs occasionally turn into Kirk Cousins, but regardless they are great ways to have cost-controlled backups who turn into future trade assets. New England has been doing this for years (Hoyer, Mallet, Jimmy G, etc.) We could get lucky with him, but right now he is completing 50% of his passes against the 2nd and 3rd stringers. He is not remotely prepared to start an NFL football game.
- Taylor could probably garner a 3rd rounder at this point - not a game-changer given the ammo the Bills already have. Somehow one bad preseason game proves that he cannot play and yet we could get great value for him. Okay.
- McCoy was traded 2 1/2 years ago and the Eagles got nothing. The Bills would not profit from that trade and he would represent a ton of dead money. Trading Kyle Williams would get what, a 5th round pick?
- The idea that the Boldin retirement would trigger a tank is bizarre and would truly mean that this team has no plan. Up until he signed, most Bills fans had given up on the idea that he was coming in the first place.
McDermott and Beane know that they are in the mushy middle of the AFC - nowhere close to Pats and Steelers, but several steps above the misery of Jags, Browns, and Jets. They HAVE to build for 2018 and beyond - and they have been doing that starting with the trade down for Tre White. The Watkins trade fits in that framework, but IT DOES NOT REPRESENT A TANK. Look at the Bovada odds - the Bills expected win total did not go down. Watkins or not, they are at best a wild-card team this year. They are like 10 other teams in the AFC that could win between 6 and 10 games depending on injuries, officiating, schedule, penalties, etc. The wild card is a worthy and realistic goal to compete for and would be a huge step towards where the team wants to go. Even if they go 7-9 again, McDermott wants this team "in the hunt" until December. It doesn't help him to start of his coaching career by going 3-13 with Nate Peterman. You are always on the clock in the NFL.
One great indicator of an executive's success is his/her ability to be future-oriented. If you read War Room you will see Belichick/Pioli were looking at the future, even as their '02 team unexpectedly went on a run and made the Super Bowl. Because of Brady's unexpected rise, the Pats have always been able to focus on the future. This is the way that McDermott and Beane are trying to run the team but it does not mean strip-mining the current roster.
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Bettis is hard to justify.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BettJe00.htm
3.9 ypa on his career, only two all-pro seasons.
Similar to what Frank Gore will probably be - inducted because he was good for a long time. But not a dominant/game-changing player, which is what I think of for a HoFer.
When you look at the guys behind Bettis for all-time rushing yards - dominating, electric guys like Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson, Thurman Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Terrell Davis, OJ Simpson, Marcus Allen - you have to recognize that accumulated yards don't mean everything.
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We all know that the Pegulas did not have experience in running a pro sports franchise.
I believe they came into ownership with a mindset of "hire good people and give them the resources to succeed" after seeing that philosophy work in other areas of business.
After six years overseeing the Sabres and 2 1/2 with the Bills they are realizing what they didn't know - namely, that the above philosophy is fine, but not in itself, enough to build a winner.
Without trying to, I believe McDermott has put both organizations on blast with his work ethic, professionalism, and attention to detail.
The early termination of Rex, the new "one voice" approach with the media, Pegula's commendation of McDermott as a "man of faith," and Pegula's criticism of the sloppiness of the Bylsma/Murray regime, all seem to indicate that they are recognizing in McDermott the type of person they want to work with.
We'll see if it results in wins (for either team), but I believe we are seeing our ownership gain clarity in what they are looking for. It's not easy to run a pro sports team and I'm choosing to be hopeful about this.
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4.39 is not really that fast. it's essentially 4.4
under 4.3 is fast
under 4.2 is very fast
4.4-4.5 is pretty good
4.6 is pedestrian in the nfl.
4.7 or above, get out of here. you're a dt or ol.
According to your analysis, there are no "very fast" corners in the NFL. Nobody runs under 4.2. John Ross just broke the combine record at 4.22.
As to the bigger picture, as unproven as Seymour is, I don't have a whole lot more confidence in Darby. He seemed very tentative at times last year.
The consensus seems to be that there are a lot of good DBs in this draft, so a day 1 CB would certainly show a lack of confidence in what we currently have.
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I think the Cousins comparisons are real and I believe NFL GMs are high on this guy. He is not going to get past day 2 IMO.
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Brett Favre played a very good season at age 40 in 2009, then fell off the cliff in his age-41 season and retired.
Warren Moon played a decent season at age 41 in 1997, then hung around as a backup for a couple more years.
From my research that is it for QBs on the plus side of 40.
Brady is 39 right now, the idea that he has 6-7 more years is completely ludicrous.
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Mike Lombardi is very high on Nathan Peterman as a mid-round pick
https://soundcloud.com/ringernflshow/gm-street-with-mike-lombardi-ep-88
Right around the 8:00 minute mark
Also Peterman reportedly has a visit setup with the Bills in early April, per SiriusXMNFL
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The point is the Moneyball nature of these signings.
The combined production of this trio is likely to be greater than what Goodwin could have done in Buffalo.
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Glenn is not moving to RT.
Kouandijo is probably not even making this team based on his injury and the fact he is going to miss all OTAs and he is just average to begin with.
Also, Glenn is likely to be looking for a new contract in 2 years when his guarantees are up and the Bills can opt out of the deal in 2019 if they want to. He will be 30 at the end of this contract so he is going to get another pretty good deal if he keeps up solid LT play. He is not going to like moving to the RT spot for potentially 2 years to weaken his position on a new contract, either with the Bills or another team.
Secondly, let's just say that, magically, CK plays simply average at LT. He needs a new contract next year. Average tackle play for a guy in his mid-20s will cost you roughly 5 - 8 million on the salary cap depending on the contract. So now we are looking at spending between 17 and 21 mil to get an average LT and a great RT. That amount of money invested in both T positions should give you the best T combo in the league, not an average starter at one spot and a great one at the other.
Glenn is not moving to RT. There is no way that is even a consideration. Forget about the money - you don't move an excellent player to accommodate a mediocre one.
CK is in grave danger with the new regime. It is not like he is a pro bowler on the left side and can't get a body on anyone on the right. He needs to show well in camp to have a chance at making the team. We already know six guys who are making the team (last year's five starters plus Groy). Henderson can be carried without a roster spot for the first five games.
I see the Bills addressing RT with another FA signing or a 2nd - 4th round pick depending on their internal evaluation of Mills.
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That game was not an anomaly. Packers were a weak road team that year. They came in 3-3 on the road and ended up 4-4.
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Kelly wasn't the football god that everyone seems to be annointing him as..
He was above average, to great at times.
Four trips with no jewelry says otherwise.
Promo said it well.
LOL - "above average."
One of the best QBs of his generation, first ballot HOFer.
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First off, not defending EJ at this point. A great guy with catastrophic accuracy/footwork issues - I wish him all the best in Oakland.
However, I think there are some lessons to be learned as we think about the future of the Bills at the QB position.
- There has not been a consensus stud QB coming out of the draft since 2012 with Andrew Luck. I don't mean that there have not been good QBs (Winston, Mariota, Carr, probably Garoppolo), but all have come with faults and the NFL intelligence community has been divided on them. The college ranks are producing guys that need significant development.
- This speaks to the need to have a coherent offensive philosophy and in-house coaching that has a realistic ability/track record to take a young QB from point A to point B. Everyone knew the Bills needed a QB in 2013, all the available QBs were project-type guys, EJ probably did have the best physical tools, but there was absolutely no reason to think that Marrone-Hackett had the capacity to mould a young QB. What a waste of a pick to put into the hands of those guys. The kid never looked better than his first two games.
- Some fans talk like drafting 1st round QBs is a quick fix. There is no quick fix and we need an in-house infrastructure that can actually prove that it can develop a QB to a competent level. That is why I'm eager to see Cardale this summer - whatever his future ends up being. He is a moldable player that could demonstrate our current staff's ability to develop.
When Was the Last Time It Looked This Good?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
No.
There was not the sense that we were building something in 2014 after Marrone's 9-7 season. That team had just lost a must-win game to the Raiders. They did not have a lot of young talent or a positive draft situation. They had traded the upcoming 1st rounder in 2015 and the coach and QB were out the door the week the season ended. The 2014 Bills had an expensive, dominant, aging defensive line, but they were not setup for sustainable success.