EmotionallyUnstable
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Posts posted by EmotionallyUnstable
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Solar eclipse blue balls
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Cloudy but pleasant in Clarence, NY. Planning a driveway get together with the neighbors. Some snacks and bevvies while the kiddies play.
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Big fan of Beane. Yes he’s made many calcuable errors but he is a top executive in the league and should be here for a long run.
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8 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
I think it’s a fair question. In terms of man to man coverage stuff, I believe you beat man coverage with scheme. The players matter to some extend, they need to be fast and run good routes and understand leverage, but there are a number of ways to beat man and we just didn’t do a good enough job scheming guys open and getting into those concepts last season. Daboll was excellent at this. And I am not saying we need to throw a bunch of cones out there and expect wins, but to me it’s about quality and quantity, not just one uber guy who costs you 30 million dollars or a massive amount of draft capital. That’s why I love what the Packers did. They drafted multiple young, fast receivers and tight ends.
Sorry for the length of this, but I was curious as well, so I put on my nerd hat and dove deep…
So just out of curiosity I looked at the Bills top 4 WRs and two TEs and here is their production:
1,183 - Diggs
786 - Davis
611 - Shakir
150 - Harty
673 - Kincaid
186 - Knox
Believe it or not, Allen and Love both had an equal number of pass attempts.
The Packers top 4 WRs amassed a total yards output of 2,470 yards and the two TEs amassed 707, all together it’s 3,177 yards. This was done in 85 games total of playing time as both Watson and Musgrave missed a bunch of games. Zero first round picks. All first and second year players and a 1st year starter at QB.
The Bills totals for top 4 WRs is 2,630 and the two TEs amassed 859, so it totals up to 3,519. This was done in 96 games of playing time as Knox missed some games. 1st round picks spent on Diggs and Kincaid. Kincaid and Shakir are first/second year players, the other Bills guys are vets. (Diggs, Harty, Davis, Knox). Plus an all world veteran QB.
The Bills’ group, in 2023, cost about 32 million in cap with Shakir being the cheapest player. The Packers’ group cost about 7.5 million dollars. I guess my point is, is the extra 342 yards in 11 more games worth 24.5 million dollars in cap? I don’t think so. In analytics, a yard is a yard. It’s moneyball, this number one receiver stuff, to me, is old school thinking. A catch is a catch. You just need good players with speed and some ability to run routes and get open against leverage.
In both cases, it wasn’t enough as both teams lost in the divisional round. The Packers just did it in a much cheaper way.
Let’s look at the team who did actually win it all, KC:
Top 4 WR:
Rice - 938
Watson - 460
MVS - 315
Moore - 244
TEs:
984 - Kelce
305 - Gray
The Chiefs WRs totaled 1957, and the TEs totaled 1289 for a total of 3246. This less than the Bills totals in more attempts by Mahomes. This was done in 94 total games. The Chiefs receiver and TE groups cost about 29 million, 26 of which is just Kelce and Valdes-Scantling. Zero first round picks.
To me the idea of a number 1 must have receiver is an antiquated concept. You can get the same amount of production much cheaper. The problem with the Bills model is they were paying guys who weren’t good enough. Diggs did not really produce enough to get this team to a championship and Knox is overpaid as well. Harty was a waste.
The Packers went to this model because they carried 57 million in dead cap this past year, and I believe that is where the Bills are headed. It’s not about massive amounts of trade up capital to get into the top 5. They can get a really good player in the 20s who improves the receiver room and helps make up for the catches that left with Diggs, Davis, and Harty. And they have the opportunity to complete this mission in a much more cost friendly way.
I appreciate all the work you put into this. I still am a bit unsure that this approach is the right way to go. I understand the Chiefs WR room but I do believe they are the exception, not the rule.
Looking around the league, if your approach is the case, why are pass catchers making increasingly more and more money? Sure, the increase in cap makes a ton of impact, but guys like Chase and Jefferson are going to shatter the ceiling. Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are being paid big money. Even teams with more cap space such as the Jags are paying through the nose for guys (Kirk/Davis). Why not simply draft players with day 2 picks and spend the money elsewhere?
Production is obviously important. However I feel that when that production happens is even more crucial. I think a lot of the guys names above have shown that they can win when it matters, and for a team trying to win the SB, they can’t wait around for a rookie to hopefully be that for them.-
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1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:
There are no “number 1s” in that group. I keep spamming the board that this idea of a #1 is overdone. You just need good players who catch the football and are trustworthy to go with your awesome QB. It’s even better if they are dirt cheap, which is what the Packers have done here.
Genuinely asking:Is the packers passing game something we should strive to be like? These are good players taken with decent selections and they’re getting good production but does that result in wins?
My concern here is, just acquiring guys who catch the football and are trustworthy only get you so far when teams line up and make you beat them. I want guys who can win 1v1 when I need them too. Especially with the increase in man coverage the bills saw in 2023, having solid players may not be enough.
793674
581
422
355352
Those are the yardage totals from the players you mentioned in the tweet. Not good enough IMO
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The excitement of trading Diggs gave me the initial reaction that I wanted to sell the farm
and go for one of the big three…but:
Now that the dust has settled, I think the best course of action is to stand pat at #28…and potentially move up 2-5 spots using a 4th if need be to draft “our guy”
That’ll leave us with
Rookie
Samuel
Shakir
Shorter
Hollins
Sign a guy like Renfrow or Boyd as insurance
This boils down to casting a wide net instead of putting all your eggs in one basket. If #28 doesn’t get it done this year, then we have next years first (which could be better than #28) and two 2nds to try again to find WR1. In the mean time, Samuel/Kincaid/Cook will carry the loan if the tookie can’t hack it
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54 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:
Shaw is on to something simply for this reason:
Beane has shown a tendency to aggressively improve draft position in the early rounds:
2018: Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds
2019: Cody Ford
2022: Kaiir Elam
2023: Dalton Kincaid
That's 5 players in 6 years that he's moved up for in the early rounds.
2018 - Previously detailed above 1st round trades
2019 - Ford #40 to #38 (cost a 5th rounder)2022 - Elam #25 to #23 (cost a 4th rounder)
2022 - Kincaid #27 to #25 (cost a 4th rounder)
So with the exception of the 2018 big swings (if you want to call it that), their 1st round movement has been minor.
Based on this history, we’re more likely to see them go from #28 to #25ish….but those teams in that range don’t seem to really be necessary to jump.
Is the Diggs trade posturing in the event someone moves ahead of us, we can then jump them, or with Beane really swing for the fences for the first time?
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1 hour ago, Virgil said:
Was it? Crap, my brain is broke. I thought we traded back into the 1st for Edmunds
Crazy to think about now in today’s day and age:Allen Pick: sent #12, and two 2nds, for pick #7
Edmunds: sent #22 an early 3rd and 6th, for #16
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4 minutes ago, Virgil said:
The deal that sticks out to me the most was for Edmunds. That one was way out of left field, but it shows Beane will do whatever it takes to get his person.
They only moved from 22 to 16 to get up for Edmunds. It wasn’t all that much of an investment but I do agree with your sentiment.-
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Best of luck, Diggs!
Lot of haters out there but I thoroughly enjoyed watching him the bulk of his time here. Not trying to absolve Diggs of any wrong doing but I do believe he catches more flack than he deserved in the diva department. At the end of the day, we all saw the writing on the wall. We knew this was coming, just not so soon.
I’ll always appreciate what he did to get this team to where it is an helping Allen get to where he is today. That said..
My question for the Bills in their quest for a SB over the past two seasons has always been “is there top end talent good enough?”
We’ve always known they’re deep and have great players, but to win the big one you need elite players playing at a high level when it matters most. Diggs wasn’t able to provide that, however you chalk it up.
Kudos to Beane for recognizing it and making an effort to improve instead of holding his cards and going all in on a poker hand that you know isn’t stacked in your odds.
I hope that Steph in HOU will be good for them both, and that the tough choice by Beane and co will pay off in the long run by getting cheaper, younger and potentially more dangerous at WR while Allen is in his prime.
Go Bills!
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The idea of McConkey is growing on me.
Guy is a straight baller. Quick, smooth, reliable.
Feel like if we go into #28 looking for WR1 we are going to be disappointed. Take the best player regardless of if we feel he can play outside, etc.
Not interested in ppl saying “we have Shakir” as if these guys are not versatile. The NfL is changing.
I am not sold we need an alpha at WR just a play maker.
Diggs
McConkey
Samuel
Shakir
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Reads PSL news
Adjusts rabbit ears
fluff couch cushion
prosper.
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4 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:
But the gloves will affect the clapping sound. 👏🏻
Its not about results. All about the process, baby.-
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What # are we thinking?
Fornerly 10 (Shakir) as he entered the league, he returned to 4 (Cook) last season, which is what he wore at Ohio State.
Any guesses?
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4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
If you are talking about the cap savings being more than expected … then I assume this is how they have squeezed in Samuels deal without reworking anyone else …According to Greg Thomsett yesterday … they are on the cap limit after that .. so they will need to start pulling further levers to get more guys signed …
I was actually referring to the cap hits over the next three years. Its a big chunk of change, but he is a good player and the anchor on the OL. Let’s hope his health and level of production stay steady. At almost 30 with another 4 years pretty much invested in him, he’s out guy.
I think he’s earned it but was just taken aback a bit by the cap hit distribution.
actually on further review it looks like they could get out of it after 2026 relatively cheap.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dion-dawkins-21805/-
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10 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:
Breaking we have Dion Dawkins extension details:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/dion-dawkins-21805/
Saves about §6M this year.
Cap hits:
2024 - $11.5M
2025 - $20M
2026 - $23M
2027 - $23M
+ 2 void years with total dead cap of $4.6M
Wow this is more than I was expecting -
20 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
We have a ton of 5th and 6th round picks.
Anything more than this is an over investment.
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So based on these numbers, and dependent on the Morrow and Hollins deals, they could in theory still have room for another semi-costly piece and still have room for rooks.
The problem is this can’t happen until post June 1 so barring another release or restructure, I am assuming things have shifted towards the draft at OBD.
Maybe Mike Williams hangs out until late summer (a la Hopkins last year) and signs a prove-it deal to try and re-establish himself as potential WR1 demonstrating health and ability.
Williams - 1 year, 10 million dollars with two void years. Fully guaranteed.
Cap Hits as follows:
2024 - 4 mil
2025 - 3 mil
2026 - 3 mil
Passing the money down the line gives them the space they need to bring in a key player now, spreading the money into years they are currently a bit more flexible. Additionally, if it were to work out an extension would essentially tear up those void years.
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On 3/10/2024 at 11:01 PM, ExiledInIllinois said:
Hate it break it to you sunshine. Changing the clocks is probably the best compromise.
20 States want permanent Standard Time.
22 States want permanent DST.
The States that want permanent DST should kick more money into the health system. DST causes more damage.
Or we just let every State pick what they want. Right now it's almost 50/50.
How well will that go? 😆
And the other 8 states?
They want;
a hippopotamus for Christmas?
candy?
it that a way?
to know what love it?
to break free?
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37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
With the signing of Morrow, the team breakdown now looks as follows (not including futures/reserve players
Total current players =
Offense 17 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)).
QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky
RB/FB (4) - current 2: Cook & Gilliam
TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris
WR (5) - current 3: Diggs, Shakir, & Shorter
Oline (9) - current 7: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix)
Defense 18 of 25 players
Dline (10) - Current 6 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, & Epenesa (Cline and Ankou also in the mix)
LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector
CB (6) - current 4 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, & Elam
S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Hamlin, & Lewis (CB)
Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team.
Looks like there are 13 jobs still available - 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 OL, 4 DL, 2 CB & 1 S. My guess is 6-7 of these jobs will go to draft picks (WR, S, CB, OL, RB, 2DL?). Still hopefully Ty Johnson returns at RB.
Appreciate the write up!Beane isn’t done. They’ll like be adding 2-3 more FA level players to compete IMO.
11 picks could definitely end up being 6-7 guys, possibly more. This year could be a “fish with dynamite” draft. And we may count on (semi) house hold names such as Eli Ankou to make the roster (ala Kingsley Jonathan).
The reality is they can no longer fill in the back end of the roster with guys via FA at a few mil a pop (i.e. Matekavich, Neal, etc) and will have to settle with youngins off the street or roll with late picks.
it’s the way of the world when you pay elite money to your top players.
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Well the way FA has gone has me shifted a bit on my early round expectations. With a lot of decent vets no longer available, I am leaning towards hoping to see two early round WRs
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Idk how accurate it is but I get all my content from twobillsdrive.com
🫡
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How to Pick a Top WR
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I would be so interested to see this love child 😭