mjt328
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Posts posted by mjt328
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Eric Decker was an average #2 receiver before Peyton Manning came around. I don't think he's an exceptional talent, and the contract he demands won't be worth what he brings to the passing game.
Personally, I would rather take the chances on hitting a home run with someone like Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin or Kenny Britt.
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Best news I've heard in awhile. Go Andre!!!!!!
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CJ Mosley is overrated because he plays on Alabama.
I think Shayne Skov and Yawin Smallwood are better prospects, and they may be available in the 2nd-3rd round.
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Most coaches have big egos, and prefer bringing along the scheme that worked best for them.
If Schwartz is smart, he will copy Pettine's defense exactly - with a couple tweaks to improve gap control against the run. However, highly doubt this will happen.
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You make some good points, so I just want to hit on this last one.
It's funny you mention these teams, since each of them let their most important free agent(s) walk out the door this past offseason.
New England let Welker go, Pittsburgh didn't re-sign Wallace, Baltimore traded Boldin for a 6th rd pick and didn't re-sign Cary Williams, New Orleans let their LT defect to Chicago, and Green Bay lost Greg Jennings to a division rival.
All had plenty of cap space...
Now, I'm not saying this proves anything, just that I think it speaks to the idea of correctly determining value over simply re-signing guys because you have the money and cap space to do so.
Most of those teams actually were in pretty bad salary cap trouble.
Pittsburgh had to decide between Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. They chose wisely.
Baltimore's biggest free agent was Joe Flacco. Combining his massive contract and Ray Rice (from the year before), left them in a position where they simply couldn't afford an aging possession receiver.
New Orleans brought back Marques Colston, and of course had the looming contract of Jimmy Graham coming up this year.
With Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb, Green Bay didn't need Jennings and they knew it. They played most of 2012 without him anyway.
New England is (as usual), the exception to the rule. I think they knew Welker was easily replaceable. They decided to go with a younger Danny Amendola. He got hurt, but Julian Edelman filled in nice this year. The big losses to New England's offense were Gronk and Hernandez.
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It's been stated several times in this thread, but it bears repeating so that everyone on the board gets it.
We DID NOT run a 3-4 defense last year!!!
We DID NOT run a hybrid either!!!
My estimation is that we ran a 4-3 base about 30-40 percent of the time. The rest of the time, we were in nickel.
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Goodall has to be the WORST commissioner in NFL history. Constantly messing around with rules that don't need to be changed. It needs to stop right now.
He's already pretty much eliminated kickoff returns from the game. He's made it completely impossible to tell what a catch is. Illegal hit penalties are inconsistent and turning the sport into two hand touch. And now we may be looking at a snow storm moving the freaking Super Bowl to another day.
That's not even counting all of his proposed ideas like expanding the regular season or adding more playoff spots. Ugh.
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This is great information (I don't have the patience to analyze and digest it all) so, let me offer another hypothesis on whether there is a correlation or not -- take Seattle, this year, most analysts have said that they have a short window, because several of their key players are over-performing their contracts (Wilson, Sherman the most obvious) and once they have to pay those guys, they will have cap issues. Take a look at Dallas, spent a lot and made poor football decisions now they are $25M+ over the cap and will have casualties. A lot of times teams win and then have to spend to keep the core group together, perhaps that clouds the data. I will also say that teams that win consistently spend efficiently. That is critical. I would never suggest the Bills do another Dockery/Walker/Kelsay/Schobel type of off-season. The Patriots seem the best at efficient spending and knowing when not to extend a guy or trade someone right before the downside hits. What I am suggesting for the Bills (this is a clarified position) is for them to OPTIMIZE their spending. Spend smart, on the right people at the right time. I don't want this team to give Fred a 5-year extension or throw big money at a backup QB. I would also hope (and I know Bandit insists it was the case) that the Bills spare no expense to hire the best football people to make those critical decisions.
I agree with this completely, and this is why I think some people may have a problem seeing a direct correlation between spending and winning.
A team like Seattle is winning, but not breaking the salary cap. But this has more to do with player age than anything else. Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, etc. are still on their cheap rookie contracts. When these guys start hitting free agency, the Seahawks will have to decide whether to pay their guys or not. If they start letting those guys walk, I'm certain the winning will stop.
Same thing with Carolina and a young talent base that includes Cam Newton and Luke Kuechley. Even a team like Denver is fairly young, with the exception of Peyton Manning being under center. They signed their big free agent this season (Ryan Clady) to an extension over the summer.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have the St. Louis Rams who are still stuck by the pre-rookie salary cap rules - and stuck pending tons of money on the rookie contracts of Sam Bradford and Chris Long.
I also think it's misleading to look at rankings when most of the teams are within the $2-6 million range. The difference between the team ranked #10 and ranked #25 is almost nothing.
The best way to judge the effect of spending is to simply watch how yearly winners (New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay) handle their free agents when they have room to operate under the salary cap. I have a very hard time seeing any of those teams letting Jairus Byrd walk with over $18 million to work with under the cap.
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Maybe there isn't a direct correlation, but consistently sitting at $10-20 million under the cap (while letting our talent walk) definitely says something about Buffalo's commitment to winning.
Teams like Washington are big spenders, but they make poor decisions about who to spend it on. That's why they aren't winning.
Teams like Carolina (and to a lesser extent Seattle and San Fran) are winning and have lots of cap space, but that's mostly because the big stars on their teams are still young and playing on their first contracts.
Long-time winners - New Orleans, New York Giants, Baltimore, Pittsburgh - these are the teams that have lots of veteran Pro Bowl players on their second contracts. These are the teams with a legitimate excuse to let free agent talent walk, because otherwise they would go over the cap.
If the Bills really believe that signing Byrd would hurt their chances at bringing back Dareus next year - then I completely understand the reluctance to offer a massive contract.
Unfortunately, I'm more inclined to believe (based on watching this team for 25 years), that our contract negotiations have more to do about the front office's "perceived value" of players. If they don't think a guy is worth the money he's asking (whether it be Byrd, Levitre or Peters), they simply won't give it to him - regardless of whether they can afford it under the salary cap or not.
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We all know what the Bills organization says.
Is it the truth?
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I did some research on the Bills salary cap figures over the past few seasons.
> In 2012, we started the league year (March) with about $23 million in cap space. After free agency and draft signings were completed, we started the season (September) with about $13-14 million in cap space.
> In 2013, we started the league year with about $17-18 million in cap space. We started the season with about $9 million.
> We currently (January 2014), sit at about $18 million in cap space.
I've heard the excuse over and over. We couldn't sign "X" player to a new contract, because we need to save the money for "Y" player next year. This excuse is already being thrown around on why we can't muster up another $1-2 million to bring back Jairus Byrd (because we need the money for Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller or Jerry Hughes next year).
It's a total bullcrap excuse. This team is never in salary cap trouble. Even after making Mario Williams the highest paid defensive player in football, we still went into the 2012 season with a comfortable cushion of more than $10 million!!!
So my question is... Does Doug Whaley have the permission from his superiors (Russ Brandon, Jim Overdorf, Ralph Wilson, etc.) to spend up to the maximum of the salary cap? Because if he DOES, then why are we squabbling about re-signing a 3x Pro Bowler?
The Saints currently sit at about $640 THOUSAND over the salary cap, but you better believe they will find a way to keep Jimmy Graham on that roster. Why can't things work like that around here?
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Tom Brady cusses and screams at the refs when he doesn't get the call his way. He is constantly seen throwing fits and pouting on the sideline. But he's just "passionate about winning."
I would just love for Sherman's critics to show some consistency.
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It's stupid how championships (team accomplishment) weigh so heavily in peoples minds when comparing individual players.
These guys play 200-300 games over the course of their career, and they are judged by a small handful of wins and losses.
Brady built his reputation on clutch play and his team coming out with 3 Super Bowl wins. That is a total of THREE GAMES that defined his legacy. Now the guy just can't get over the hump. Is Brady so much worse? Or where there other factors that come into play?
Elway was a big game choke artist. Just like Jim Kelly. That was his legacy. Until the Broncos drafted Terrell Davis, and suddenly he was a winner. Two games completely changed everything.
20 years ago, people inexplicably considered Joe Montana better than Dan Marino. Why? Super Bowl wins. Never mind that Joe Montana was surrounded by several Hall of Famers and the greatest receiver of all time. Marino had the Marks Brothers and had to play in the same division as us every year.
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Interesting thing I just realized.
Aaron Williams and Da'Norris Searcy are both free agents in 2015.
So at some point, the Bills have to start paying their safeties. Otherwise we are in big trouble at that position.
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Owners should not be involved. They don't really understand the actual business. They just think they do.
Owners should own and hire the right people to run and the franchise.
Agreed.
I can't think of any Bills fans crying for ownership to get more involved. Everyone wanted Ralph to get out of the way.
Al Davis, Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder -- all these guys ran their teams into the ground. Bob Kraft hires the top personnel to run his team, then gets out of the way.
And there lies a conundrum. If the owner has no real understanding of the business, how is he to know who the right people are that he should hire to run the franchise?
At the very least, he should be able to read a resume and pick someone with a credible background to be GM.
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I think most of us are sick/baffled at the continued breakdowns in the Bills run defense. Especially with us fielding 3-4 Pro Bowl caliber players in the Front 7. So I'm planning on taking the offseason to review all of our games and show where the biggest breakdowns are actually coming from. My goal is to look at any running plays over 10+ yards and assign the proper blame.
Here are my results from the Week 17 New England game.
The Bills allowed a total of 267 yards on 43 attempts, for an average of 6.2 yards per carry. Out of those runs, they allowed 6 rushes of 10 or more yards - for a total of 139 yards.
29 Yard Run (Ridley)
1st Quarter - 4:06 remaining
New England is lined up in the I-Formation, with a tight end to the left and 2 wide receivers split right. The Bills are in a base 4-3 defense.
The play is a simple handoff and dive to the right side B Gap, between the right guard and right tackle.
At the point of attack, Corbin Bryant gets no penetration and is completely stonewalled by the right guard. Manny Lawson has outside contain and is met by the right tackle. He tries reaching off the block, but is too slow to get a hold of Ridley.
At the second level, Kiko Alonso and Jim Leonard are both in a position to make a stop. But both hesitate and wait for the play to come to them. Alonso is blasted by the fullback. Leonard is taken out by Edelman.
Nobody on the defense can shed their blocks. Ridley simply navigates into the secondary until he's met by Jairus Byrd playing deep safety.
14 Yard Run (Blount)
2nd Quarter - 14:40 remaining
Our good friends at CBS were too busy showing highlights from the 49ers-Cardinals game, so they missed the beginning of this play.
From what I can tell, Corbin Bryant appears to be getting turned around by the blocker. Nigel Bradham meets the running back in the hole, about 2-3 yards from the line of scrimmage - but completely whiffs.
36 Yard Run (Blount)
2nd Quarter - 12:22 remaining
New England is in a 2 tight end set, with one running back and 2 wide receivers split left. Buffalo is in a base 4-3, but crowding the line with two linebackers showing blitz.
Blount starts towards the left side C Gap, then cuts back to a huge hole in the left side A gap.
The key player here at the point of attack is (again) Corbin Bryant, who gets blown back by the left tackle. Bryant also fails to slow down the left guard, who easily gets to the second level and takes Kiko Alonso out of the play.
Alan Branch is also singled-up on the center with a chance to slow down Blount, but doesn't seem aware the runner is coming his way until it's too late.
15 Yard Run (Ridley)
4th Quarter - (10:09 remaining)
Same formation as before. New England is in a 2 tight end set, with one running back and 2 wide receivers split left. Buffalo is again in it's base 4-3.
It's almost the same play as before, with Ridley starting towards the C Gap, then cutting back towards the A Gap.
Unlike Corbin Bryant on the previous big run, Kyle Williams gets a great jump and blows the left guard back. He also forces a temporary double team, slowing down the left tackle from reaching the second level. Marcel Dareus stands up the center and appears to be in decent position to bottle up the play for a 2-3 yard gain.
This is where linebacker instincts come into play, and Kiko Alonso and Nigel Bradham are both late in diagnosing. Both wait until blockers reach them at the second level. Ridley does an excellent job of being patient. Dareus misses the arm tackle, and boom... another big run.
10 Yard Run (Blount)
4th Quarter - (3:24 remaining)
New England is in the I-Formation with 2 tight ends and a receiver split right. Buffalo is crowding the box with 5 linemen and 4 linebackers.
This play came after the onside kick, after it was clear the game was in the bag. It showed.
The Patriots run a simple dive to the left C Gap. The Bills have the play bottled up about a yard downfield with 6-7 defenders. New England pushes the pile for an additional 9 yards. I specifically noted Alan Branch and Nigel Bradham making a half hearted effort to bring down Blount.
35 Yard Run/Touchdown (Blount)
4th Quarter - (2:40 remaining)
Exact same formation and run as the previous play. The run goes to the left C Gap.
Mario Williams has contain and is matched up against the tight end. Refs missed a jersey pull on the block and Williams can't get his hand out to slow down Blount. Ty Powell also has good position on the left tackle, but watches the runner go by without trying to disengage.
Nigel Bradham gives virtually no effort at meeting the fullback in the hole, and actually appears to try avoiding the big hit.
This leaves Jim Leonard, who takes a bad angle 5-6 yards downfield, then gets stiff-armed to the ground.
NOTES:
>> Benching Marcel Dareus hurt us a bunch. Corbin Bryant was key in all 3 big runs in the first half.
>> Nigel Bradham does not need to be starting. He's a liability at a very important position, and his effort at the end of the game was disgusting.
>> Kiko Alonso may be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but he's still got a lot of improving to do.
>> Jim Leonard is weak in run support.
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I have no problem with the Bills drafting/signing more WR weapons, and down the line, maybe Stevie will no longer be needed.
But at this point, our depth at WR is not good enough to cut any talented players.
The coaching staff needs to work with Stevie on focusing during games. Not just give up on him.
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Exactly. It's an excuse we should all put to rest. As for STs, if a team has many weapons on STs, then they must really suck on offense and/or defense or they are exercising poor judgement in playing their stars on ST. They don't need weapons, they need good coaching/discipline.
Yep.
Most ST coaches get their say on kicker, punter, long snapper, returner... The coverage units are leftover backups.
All we need out of special teams is to not give up a big return. That requires guys staying in their lanes and not missing tackles. We don't need "weapons."
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No one on that list should go.
All of those guys are starters. You don't get better by cutting and replacing your starters. You get better by UPGRADING, moving those guys to second string, and cutting guys lower down the ladder.
For example, draft a top-notch TE weapon. He becomes the starter. Chandler gets moved to TE#2, and Lee Smith gets cut.
You don't cut from the top and leave the underlying garbage.
Only one that fits that is TJ Graham since he is already the #3 or 4 WR. But again, I dont want him cut just for the sake of cutting him. You have to have an upgrade to the position on the roster first.
Best post.
I'm so sick of dumping talented players and creating holes with no replacement prepared.
This guy wants too much money. This guy isn't a "team player." This guy has made several Pro Bowls, but he's really overrated. Blah, blah, blah.
But what do I know. Maybe 1000 yard receivers who can toast Darrelle Revis really do grow on trees. Maybe we would be better off tossing Kyle Williams for a 350 LB tub of lard. Maybe it's better to have extra cap room instead of a Top 5 safety who has the audacity to demand fair market value. Who really wants one of the league's top young defensive tackles? The guy is LATE to meetings!
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Motivation is one of the key aspects of being an NFL head coach.
It's Doug Marrone's job to keep a pulse on the locker room, and figure out how to get his players to go hard every Sunday. Some players need a heavy-handed smack from the coaching staff. Others need something more subtle. Take the wrong approach, and it's likely to backfire.
It's clear that discipline was necessary with Marcel Dareus. But benching him against a hated division opponent (and basically leaving the rest of his teammates hanging out to dry) was obviously the wrong move. Proof? The rest of the defense responded with its WORST performance of the season in run defense, letting up 267 yards on the ground to the likes of LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley.
Earlier in the year, Marrone and staff cut 3rd string running back Tashard Choice. To the general public, this was a small-time move that probably meant nothing. But for the team, Choice was a highly respected veteran in the locker room. The Bills running backs (Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller) responded to his release by both wearing #20 during the week in practice - as a tribute to their departed teammate. Buffalo then went out on Sunday and got their worst rushing performance of the season, and got crushed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After 16 games, Marrone has not figured out how to push the players. If anything, his move on Sunday was a step in the wrong direction.
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Based on talent alone, the Bills need one thing to become a playoff team. Consistent play at the quarterback position. That may be fixed by EJ gaining experience. It may not.
Unfortunately, I think the root problem with this team is much harder to fix.
The Bills are mentally FRAGILE. I have never in my life witnessed a franchise that could be so consistent at blowing games with mental mistakes. Dropped passes. Fumbles. Interceptions. Penalties. Missed Tackles. Blown Assignments. Special Teams Breakdowns. If Tony Romo were a team instead of a player, he would be the Buffalo Bills. Unfocused. Undisciplined. Always expecting to make a mistake to lose the game... then finding a way to succeed at that very thing.
They are the complete opposite of a team like the Patriots, which can get amazing performances out of bums like LeGarrette Blount and Julian Edelman. A team that can be down 3 touchdowns at almost any point, and never flinch. Always expecting to win.
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I'm going to have a really hard time getting excited this offseason.
The Bills played the same team Week 1 and Week 17. Was there improvement? Absolutely not.
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Hate a lot of things about this game, but I feel like we aren't being bullied like we have in the past. We are close.
Outside of Tom Brady (who is playing terrible again today), the talent gap between the Bills and Patriots is marginal. With Gronk and Wilfork injured, I would probably give the Bills an edge.
The difference is, New England gets spectacular performances from waiver wire fodder like Legarrette Blount and Pro Bowl quality seasons from bums like Julian Edelman. They pull out games in the 4th quarter, while we blow them with turnovers, penalties, missed tackles, etc.
We aren't close to ANYTHING until someone can figure out how to stop these ridiculous mental breakdowns that kill us every single season.
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This team is ridiculous.
Dropped passes. Penalties. Missed tackles. Blown assignments.
What good is a top draft pick, or big free agent pickup going to do for this team? You can't draft or sign focus or mental toughness.
A Detailed Account of the NFL Scouting Process
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
This was the part that stood out to me.
People love to talk about "busts" and "steals" - and many fans like to pretend drafting is just a roll of the dice. The truth is, evaluating a player's overall talent isn't that tough. It's trying to predict which guys will be hardest workers at the next level, and which guys will try coasting.
Tom Brady is probably the biggest steal in the history of the NFL. But looking back at his college career, game film, stats, physical traits, combine numbers - there was absolutely nothing at the time that hinted that Brady could be anything special. Nobody (the Patriots included) saw the guy as anything higher than a mid-late round pick.
There was something inside Brady that could not be seen or measured by scouts.