mjt328
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Posts posted by mjt328
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The Pats are overrated. I expect the game to be close, regardless of who is playing QB for us. Wouldn't be surprised if we win.
My biggest worry is the officials. If the Pats are playing for a bye, this one has "ref screw job" written all over it.
The NFL is salivating over another Brady-Manning AFC championship game.
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The business side of things is the business side of things. I just don't want anyone discrediting Carrington for his on field presence based on Parker being his agent. His reme is little I agree. But having is on the team is better than not having him. The defense hasn't been "better" as mjt328 said "because" of Carrington's absence. It's been better because of the system. We have proof of the system being better with the play of Aaron Williams, Dareus and McKelvin.
I just don't want people to say stuff like, oh because Carrington got hurt, the defense got better. That's nonsense to me.
I never said it was better "because" of Carrington's absence. I said it seemed better with Alan Branch getting more reps.
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Very happy with this move. Besides Jairus Byrd, he was the 2014 free agent that I was most worried about losing.
I really can't see the Bills making much of an offer to Alex Carrington. He's been hurt almost the entire season, and the defensive line never missed a beat. In fact, I think it was a little better with Branch. The coaches also seem to really like Corbin Bryant and Stefan Charles as rotational linemen.
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Agreed. It is something of an urban myth that the Bills will not pay. Teams in general, including the Bills, know you cannot keep every guy. It comes down to position. You keep LT's, possibly a center. You don't overpay for a guard(Levitre)or a corner or safety unless they are a Revis or Polomalu in his prime. QB's, pass rushers, a great LB or a stud WR, you make every attempt to keep those players because of their impact on the game. There is a reason those positions go high in the draft every year.Big guys that can move are the most genetically rare and difficult to replace. The Bills payrroll is not at the bottom of the league. The Jason Peters deal was mishandled IMO, but I have no trouble with others such as Clements, Poz, Whitner,or Levitre. Its about value and impact on the game. Glenn is turning into an excellent LT. Those are highly valued by all teams, and when the time comes you pay the freight at that position.
The Bills only seem to re-sign players that are willing to take a "hometown discount" - such as Stevie Johnson and Eric Woods. When a player digs his feet in the ground and asks for top Free Agent money, then we usually have a big problem.
Letting players go (regardless of position) almost always hurts the team, unless there is a legitimate backup plan.
We can talk about the perceived "value" of a guard all day. But losing Andy Levitre was a big blow to this offense, and will likely require a pick in the first 3 rounds to (hopefully) fill the hole that he left. Nate Clements may have been overpaid, but think about how bad our cornerbacks were once he left. And consider that we've drafted Leodis McKelvin, Aaron Williams and Stephon Gilmore very high (amongst other mid round picks) - all trying to fix that position.
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This team has talent everywhere.
One of the biggest issues with the Bills is MENTAL. They need to learn how remain focused and consistent for 4 quarters, then win those close games in the 4th quarter. The best thing for this team is to close out 2013 with a 3 game win streak, and a road victory over the division winner.
Besides, most of our weak spots this season (QB, CB, WR) are being filled by 1st/2nd year players, who had injury troubles and still have lots of room to improve. Other weak spots (LG, WLB, TE) are positions where we can get the best college prospect without spending a Top 10 pick.
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It seems like forever ago, but McKelvin was also a high 1st round pick.
He always seemed to have great position/coverage on receivers, but for some reason just never TURNED HIS HEAD to make a play on the ball. It baffles me that it took 5 seasons for our coaching staff to help this click. He would have been a Pro Bowler 3-4 years ago.
It really makes me wonder what our previous coaches WERE DOING to help players get better. How many of our other busts would have developed properly, if they only got the proper coaching...
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The Bills have NEVER been clear about the jobs/input/responsibility of front office personnel.
People have been blaming Ralph Wilson for years, because he is the common denominator throughout the (mostly losing) history of the Bills franchise. But nobody can prove that he's done anything over the last decade to help or hurt our team, other than hiring Donahoe, Levy, Brandon and Nix.
I don't know what Russ Brandon does. Heck, I don't even know what Doug Marrone does - since our play-calling seems to be handled by the coordinators.
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This is how it is when Bills fans are spurned in free agency.
The year the Bills lost Nate Clements they dropped from 7th in pass defense to 27th.
It goes for trades too, when the Bills dealt Peerless Price the following year the Bills passing game went from dynamic to disastrous.
But since those guys didn't go on to greatness elsewhere their departures were lauded as smart moves by the Bills by their apologists.
When you get a player that yields great results in your system.....their value exceeds what it might be elsewhere. And there is value in continuity when it comes to good players. It absolutely ADDS value to those players.
The contracts themselves are a product of the system. They don't really reflect actual value so drawing an imaginary line in the sand usually doesn't make sense. This wasn't a QB contract.
Is Mario Williams worth $1.4M per sack or whatever he earns? No, but now that he is entrenched he not only brings his big plays but he creates opportunity for others. It's no mistake that as Mario's sack production has decreased as the season goes on that new opportunities are springing up elsewhere. It's fundamental NFL football........do not let the best player beat you. At one point it looked like this was going to be a 20 sack year for Mario and nobody else would have more than 5 or 6.......but now it looks like they may have 4 players reach double digit sacks. Mario has a lot to do with that. The synergy created by his presence has it's own value.
Levitre made Wood and Glenn better players. He obviously was someone the RB's could rely on to execute his block. He would have supplied an increased level of safety and confidence for a young QB. Knowing the market was fruitless and that other positions were needed to be addressed on draft day it was a big mistake to let him walk. This year the Bills should have had one of the better left sides in football. Instead, teams ATTACKED the Bills left side with a focus on isolating their sickly LG position.
This is an excellent post, and one of the best I've seen regarding free agency.
The Bills biggest problem over the last 15 years is bad drafting. However, letting veteran talent walk (through free agency or trade) instead of paying them, is a close second. Unless you have a legitimate backup plan, losing good players is going to hurt the team on the field. And it will eventually force you to use a high draft pick to replace the departed player.
We lost Pat Williams (and later Sam Adams), and our DT situation was awful for several years. It never really stabilized until we drafted Dareus.
We lost Antoine Winfield and Nate Clements, and we are still trying to get a solid tandem at cornerback. Despite using 2 top 15 picks on McKelvin and Gilmore.
We traded Jason Peters, and sucked at left tackle for years - until we finally drafted Cordy Glenn.
People tried to assign a monetary value to Andy Levitre, saying he wasn't worth it. Now they are seeing how a bad LG hurts the development of our rookie QB and pulls down our vaunted running game.
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My observation of that particular play...
The Bills defense was overloaded on one side of the ball, and Jacksonville simply went the other direction. It was very well blocked by the Jaguars, with too many blockers and not enough defenders.
Bradham was the closest unblocked defender, and probably could have made the tackle after a gain of 5-6, but he way too late to react. And I don't know what the heck Jairus Byrd was doing, because Robinson was 20 yards past the line of scrimmage before he came to meet him.
The player being knocked down by the center (I think, it was hard to see the number) was Stefan Charles. Dareus was over the right guard. I don't think it was fair to say he was "pancaked" though. He was reaching for the ball carrier, then got knocked over when he was off balance.
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He's only ever done anything of substance in a Packers uniform. Whether its the offensive system they run, his fit within that system, the talent around him, or a combination of all 3....something about Green Bay brings out the best in Flynn
This.
Any QB can have a good start or two. Flynn has been atrocious in pretty much every other appearance this season. He's been cut by Seattle, Oakland and Buffalo in the last 2 years.
Bottom line, he wasn't going to do anything for us either.
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The defense is just perplexing to me.
I don't think there is a single position where I think we need an upgrade. Statistically they are stellar in sacks and picks. They play stout against the run for like 90 percent of the game.
I just don't know how they can get better.
Personally, I think everyone on the D-Line has played fantastic all season. But in Pettine's system - when the DL is asked to play so AGGRESSIVE and there is so much blitzing from all over the field, it doesn't leave much room for error with the guys behind them. In another system, a blown assignment (like the linebacker crashing to the wrong gap) may turn into a 10 yard gain. In ours, it's probably a touchdown.
The best solution, of course, is to make less mistakes. Better discipline. Less blown assignments. Better reads by the linebackers and safeties. Less penalties, giving the opponent a second chance.
Hopefully, we will see more improvement from everyone after a full season in Pettine's system. Instinctive linebackers are essential on this team, so Kiko still needs to get better. And we really need to give him some help at the WLB spot. Moats and Bradham just aren't cutting it. We also need more consistent play out of Stephon Gilmore. This team is counting on him to be shutdown in 1-on-1 situations. He hasn't been good enough.
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Fitzpatrick.
Hasn't changed.
That is all.
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Why ? He played well after a slow start.
Why does he keep starting slow?
Why does he miss so many 5-10 yard passes?
Why does he struggle so badly sensing pressure? (See 4th quarter fumble)
Yeah, I've still got questions. Playing decent for 30 minutes did not answer them for me either.
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Tom Donahoe started out great. His first draft was exceptional (Nate Clements, Aaron Schobel, Travis Henry, Jonas Jennings). His trade for Drew Bledsoe was bold and aggressive. He was great at snatching up top free agents (Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher, Sam Adams, Troy Vincent, Lawyer Milloy). He definitely built the most talented teams we've had during this 15 year playoff drought.
Unfortunately, once the core nucleus of the team was built - his drafts spiraled completely out of control.
Instead of filling in missing pieces, he decided to waste selections on luxury players. We badly needed another pass rusher to complement Schobel. He takes an injured Willis McGahee. We badly needed an offensive line to protect an immobile Bledsoe. He takes (bust) Mike Williams, then completely ignores the position for 3 years. He creates a huge hole by letting Pat Williams walk in free agency, then uses our first draft pick on Roscoe Parrish.
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Who among us hasn't been wrong in our assessment of a player? Which NFL GMs haven't been wrong?
Who among us hasn't changed our views about a player? Which NFL GMs haven't changed their views of a player?
The only difference between a columnist and the rest of us is that they have to put all their opinions on paper (or the web) for all to see and dig up years after the fact.
My own opinion of Stevie has wavered over the years, but at this point he has minimized his own costly mistakes two weeks in a row, in fact is almost in denial about how those mistakes impacted the game. That is the antithesis of leadership. You could live with that occasionally if the Bills were in first place, but for a team still learning how to win, you simply can't have that from one of your highest paid guys. Stevie must be purged, and I believe he will be, at a time that's most advantageous to the Bills.
I agree with this. Things change.
I've been a big supporter of Stevie over the years. I think he's a spectacular route runner, and definitely could be an asset to this passing game - if we actually had a quarterback that could get him the ball. His celebrations never bothered me, and I actually found them quite entertaining. Every receiver drops passes, so I wasn't going to hold that against him either.
After the last 2 weeks though, my opinion on Stevie has changed. Not simply because of his fumble against Atlanta, but his tipped pass/drop against Tampa Bay.
At some point, Stevie's teammates are going to stop trusting him. Especially the quarterback. And when your QB can't trust you, it's a problem. Not to mention, I think the drops have gotten into Stevie's head. Unfortunately, that will only lead to more mistakes. I think the guy is very talented, but I think the guy's mental toughness has been damaged beyond repair.
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Anybody know where I can find video of the missing plays from Sunday, when the tv feed went out? I rewatched the game, but really wanted to see those.
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In our defense, Kiko is expected to make a lot of stops. Since our D-Linemen are asked to penetrate into the backfield more than hold up blockers, a lot of pressure falls on the MLB.
On Sunday, he probably made a dozen great plays and one really bad one. Sort of the story of the Bills entire defense.
Still, Gilmore and Byrd should have been in position to limit that run. No way it should have gone for a td.
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Another problem is the OL.
As a unit, the O-Line has been pretty good most of the season. The left guard spot has been an issue all year, but Cordy Glenn has been mostly great and Eric Wood has been solid as usual. Pears and Urbik have been inconsistent, but mostly reliable.
I will say this, though... The O-Line has had 3 really bad games = NY Jets Week 3, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Those also happen to be EJ's worst games of the year.
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No surprise: all of the breakdowns highlighted here were 100% mental. This was an unfocused, uninspired team.
I'm watching the game again. Check out Rainey's 80-Yard TD Run.
This play is a lot on Kyle Williams (blocked out of the play) and mostly on Alonso (taking the wrong gap and then missing the tackle) --
But watch Byrd and Gilmore. Neither guy has a clue what's going on, until Rainey is 25 yards downfield. They probably could have stopped the run for a 20-25 yard gain, but they were completely unfocused and not really paying attention.
Everyone watching film from Sunday is coming up with the same opinion. The Bills simply didn't show up.
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Drafting another QB in 2014 does not mean we are giving up on EJ. It just means we are bringing in competition, at a position where we are getting poor/subpar results. What is so wrong with that?
Nobody blinked when we drafted Robert Woods and Marques Goodwin last year. Nobody was crying for TJ Graham to get more "development time" after a poor rookie season. Why should a QB get special treatment?
Thanks to rule changes over the last decade, more young QBs are having immediate success than anytime in the history of the NFL. And thanks to the rookie wage scale, drafting a 1st Round quarterback is no longer a huge monetary investment. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON for teams to strap themselves to a sinking ship for 2, 3 or 4 seasons anymore.
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You guys can talk all you want about his dropback and short and tall WR's.. But the bottom line is this, EJ Manuel is not very good. This guy came out of FSU for godsakes.. That is a football factory. He should be playing like he owns the world, if not the football field. Instead, he plays incredible small, almost timid for a man of his physical stature. He looks completely unsure of himself whenever he goes back to pass and can't throw it immediately to his first read. And even when he does throw aggresively to his first read it is rarely on target.
I think it is shocking that we drafted EJ with the 16th pick. I just don't see any 1st round kind of talent even in the remotetess sense. The guy has pretty much sucked for us. Seriously is he any better than JP Losman was? When Marrone looks at the film of EJ at season's end and can make a true thought out assessment, he will have to come to the same conclusion that we all should have already, that this guy is not an NFL QB. Watch Matt McGloin for the Raiders. Not a stud. But you can see he belongs and can make NFL throws. What throws can EJ make consistently?
I don't see EJ doing anything good on a consistent basis.
He's terrible at sensing the pass rush. Sometimes he panics and rushes throws. Other times he holds the ball too long. Sometimes he just takes off running (and he's not a good runner either).
He's hesitant in his reads, and scared to make a mistake. Everything is either a check down, or a deep ball toss up. Almost nothing in the 15-30 yard range, where defenders are clogging the field.
Worst of all, his accuracy is just plain bad. How many times have we seen him step up and hit a moving target on the hands? Maybe a dozen times this season?
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Yup every year the qbs are better. If only we were smart enough to grab Nassib Barkley of Tyler Wilson last year.
Wonder which Donks will reach "shoot up the board next year "
Exactly why I wanted the Bills to take a shot on a QB last year - even if it wasn't touted as the best class in the world.
A lot of people kept saying "2014 is going to be incredibly deep at QB" and screamed that we should wait. But like others said - if you just wait a year, the 2014 class will start losing its luster.
> Some top prospects will have average, bad or inconsistent seasons (Aaron Murray, David Fales)
> Some underclassmen will decide to return to school (Marcus Mariota, probably Brett Hundley)
> Some will be knocked for a poor attitude or character concerns (Johnny Manziel)
> Some will be ripped apart by scouts during the preparation months (Still Coming...)
Once April comes along, it's very likely that Teddy Bridgewater will be the only exceptional QB prospect - and he will most likely go #1 Overall (where the Bills wouldn't have had a shot anyway).
Guys like Johnny Manziel, Derek Carr and Tajh Boyd will likely be the next QBs off the board. Are they so much better prospects that Geno Smith or EJ Manuel?
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Thrilled for the guys on that list. Kiko, Mario, Kyle and Marcel are all very deserving, and if voting ended today, they would all make it.
Very disappointed not to see Cordy Glenn anywhere on that list, though.
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Over the years, I've seen too many RIDICULOUS - IMPOSSIBLE losses like what we all witnessed on Sunday. I'm no longer convinced that it's just a coincidence. We either really are "cursed" or it's somehow designed for us to lose by the NFL.
The problem is, watching the Bills is like being a drug addict. I can't stop watching (in hopes that I'm wrong, I guess).
At this point, the best thing for my sanity is them moving. Honestly.
What's the magic answer?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Identifying the problem is only part of it. The harder part is FINDING someone better.
It was obvious that Fitz and Gailey needed to be replaced. We were headed nowhere with them. Unfortunately, I haven't seen anything to suggest Marrone is a better coach than his predecessor. And the trio of Manuel, Lewis and Tuel haven't done much better than Fitz. Many would argue they have collectively played worse. Quarterback is still our biggest issue. Hopefully with Manuel only being a rookie, we haven't seen the best of his game.
I think it's obvious that Mike Pettine and Kiko Alonso have helped tremendously on defense. We are still struggling at stopping the run, true. But nowhere remotely close to as terrible as 2012. And in almost every other category, we've skyrocketed towards the top of the NFL - mostly notably #1 in sacks.