mjt328
-
Posts
3,117 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by mjt328
-
-
On 6/22/2025 at 2:31 PM, FireChans said:
Do you earnestly believe Josh will be getting 12-15 rushing TDs a season at 35 or 36 years old?
Honestly, I don't know what he's capable of doing.
Can he put together another 7 seasons like the first half of his career?
Can he be elite for another 4-5 seasons, take a step back and then just play at a high level for another 4-5 after that?
11 minutes ago, mjt328 said:Kelly is a great reason why you can't just focus on stats, or awards, or rings, or even how he ranked during his era.
It's a total compilation of everything that made up that player's career, both good and bad.
When considering Kelly's career stats, you have to remember that he spent two prime years in the USFL (earning that league's version of the MVP and an All-Pro both seasons). He missed the equivalent of 16 games in his career due to injury (basically a full season), and retired fairly early (only 36 years old). Overall, he played 71 less games than someone like John Elway, who came out of the exact same draft class.
When considering his All-Pro/Pro-Bowl selections and overall rank, you need to remember how many QB greats were playing at that particular time. He was competing every year with Elway, Dan Marino and Warren Moon for those spots in the AFC. League-wide, you also had Joe Montana early in his career, and then Steve Young and Troy Aikman later. And Kelly's numbers weren't always as flashy, since the Bills offense also revolved around Thurman Thomas.
When considering him not winning a Super Bowl, it's hard to ignore that he drove the Bills into field goal range in XXV, only for Scott Norwood to miss the kick. That's something totally out of Kelly's control.
And finally, Kelly's legacy can not be discussed without remembering how he called his own plays at the line. Pretty much unheard of at the time.
-
7 hours ago, FireChans said:
Jim Kelly better send back his jacket.
Kelly is a great reason why you can't just focus on stats, or awards, or rings, or even how he ranked during his era.
It's a total compilation of everything that made up that player's career, both good and bad.
When considering Kelly's career stats, you have to remember that he spent two prime years in the USFL (earning that league's version of the MVP and an All-Pro both seasons). He missed the equivalent of 16 games in his career due to injury (basically a full season), and retired fairly early (only 36 years old). Overall, he played 71 less games than someone like John Elway, who came out of the exact same draft class.
When considering his All-Pro/Pro-Bowl selections and overall rank, you need to remember how many QB greats were playing at that particular time. He was competing every year with Elway, Dan Marino and Warren Moon for those spots in the AFC. League-wide, you also had Joe Montana early in his career, and then Steve Young and Troy Aikman later. And Kelly's numbers weren't always as flashy, since the Bills offense also revolved around Thurman Thomas.
When considering him not winning a Super Bowl, it's hard to ignore that he drove the Bills into field goal range in XXV, only for Scott Norwood to miss the kick. That's something totally out of Kelly's control.
And finally, Kelly's legacy can not be discussed without how he called his own plays at the line. Pretty much unheard of at the time.
-
1
-
-
18 hours ago, FireChans said:
That’s kind of the problem though, imo.
Matt Ryan and Phil Rivers both overlapped with even better HoF QBs.
That’s the danger that Josh could find himself in that could harm his chances. If a Jayden Daniels or younger guy starts stacking awards or SBs, Josh could becomes the 4th or 5th best QB in his “era.”
If Burrow wins MVP and the SB next year, Josh falls to 4th among his age group, right?
I don’t think that will happen, of course, but that’s why to me his HoF case is not bullet proof yet. there is nothing that another QB can do to keep Mahomes or Lamar out. Jayden Daniels and Burrow win the next 2 or 3 MVPs/Superbowls and Josh Allen doesn’t, and he may be on the outside looking in.
Even being the 4th/5th best QB of an era doesn't necessarily disqualify someone, if other things really stand out.
Go back to the late 80s and early 90s. Most had the list as follows:
1. Joe Montana
2. Dan Marino
3. John Elway
4. Jim Kelly / Warren Moon
All five were 1st ballot HOF players.
-
23 hours ago, FireChans said:
I feel like playoff wins and “some of the best playoff stats” end up lost in HoF talk.
keep in mind, I’m not saying this is my criteria but the actual criteria.
Based on the most recent QBs, the thing that matters most is hardware. AP, MVP, SBMVP, ProBowls.
The next is career records, aka TDs, yards, wins, etc etc.
Then everything else.
Rivers has the longevity and very good numbers but lacks hardware. He is one of the very good numbers but never an All Pro, never an MVP, never won his conference.
There’s just such a glut of QBs upcoming.
The QBs in the HoF mix over the next decade are:
Brady
Brees
Ben
Rodgers
Rivers
Ryan
Eli
The first 4 are locks and the next 3 are not. I would be extremely surprised if all 7 are inducted and would not be surprised if Rivers and Ryan are snubbed.
And Josh Allen’s resume today is closer to the latter 3 than the first 4. He would not be a Hall of Famer today if he retired like Mahomes or even Lamar would be. IMO.
That's really not a lot of players if you think about it.
Even if all seven get inducted, they would be the only quarterbacks selected over a period of 15+ years.
- Brees is a 1st ballot lock next year in 2026. He will be the first QB selected in five years (last was Peyton Manning in 2021).
- Roethlisberger is a lock , but not sure he's 1st ballot. Some voters are funky about that. Maybe 2027, but possibly a year or two later.
- Brady is obviously a 1st ballot lock in 2028.
Rodgers is still playing, so he won't even be eligible until 2032 at the very earliest.
There will be a lot of discussion over the last three. My opinion is that Rivers has the best bet and will probably make it eventually. Eli Manning is a really tough sell for me, and wasn't even a finalist his first year. Matt Ryan is a total wildcard for me. His career looks much better on paper than I ever remember him actually being.
All the current guys like Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Burrow likely have a decade of football in front of them. And they don't become eligible until they have been retired for six seasons. Which means around 2040 and possibly later.
-
18 hours ago, TheWei44 said:
My only quibble with alot of the above is that they play more games now that in the past, so "first 7 seasons" stats are skewed in favor of current players. I believe Allen is better than Kelly, but Kelly played fewer games per season (no fault of his own) so he is handicapped vs. Allen.
It's not about who is better.
All I'm saying is that at his current pace, Allen will have slam-dunk HOF numbers by the time he reaches the age of 36. And if he can play a few years beyond that, he's going to totally obliterate the record books. The media downplays his greatness now, because I don't think many of them have actually done the math.
His current pace will have him at this point in only seven more years (all-time rank in parenthesis):
Total TDs: 524 (#5)
Total YDs: 61,152 (#10)
Pass TDs: 390 (#8)
Pass YDs: 52,868 (#12)
Rush TDs: 130 (#3)
Rush YDs: 8,284 (#44)
Regardless of Super Bowls, there isn't a single voter who is going to ignore that kind of resume.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:
He’s got to at least get to a SB. No QB since Warren Moon has made it without that criteria
Disagree.
He can make it based on statistics alone.
And right now, Josh Allen is well on pace (barring injury) to shatter every dual-threat QB record on the books.
For his first 7 seasons in the NFL, Allen is currently:
- 1st all-time in total yards
- 1st all-time in total touchdowns
- 1st all-time in total wins
Over 13 playoff games, he is also:
- 1st all-time in postseason yards per game
- 1st all-time in postseason touchdowns per game
- 1st all-time in postseason touchdown/INT ratio
Looking strictly at the Bills history, Allen is only a couple seasons away from breaking every Bills passing record currently held by Hall of Famer Jim Kelly. He's already passed HOF running back OJ Simpson in rushing touchdowns, and will pass HOF running back Thurman Thomas next year. He's currently #5 in rushing yards all-time for the team, and (believe it or not) it's actually possible for him to become #1 in that stat too. Has any QB ever broken the yardage AND touchdown records for their team in BOTH passing and rushing?
Currently, Allen has 262 total touchdowns in his career. He's already over half-way to being Top 5 in the history of the NFL. Meaning 7 more seasons at the same pace, and he's right there. Now, I'm not sure if he will ever catch Tom Brady (677 total), but everyone else on that list (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre) can potentially be passed if Allen can keep playing into into his late 30s at a high level. Seven more seasons makes him only 36, and some QBs are now playing well into their early 40s.
At the current pace, he's also half-way to being Top 10 all-time in passing touchdowns (#9 or #10 depending on how long Matthew Stafford plays). It's totally conceivable for him to land right around the Top 5 on this list as well.
And the clincher... Allen is also half-way to being #3 all-time in RUSHING touchdowns (he will likely pass Cam Newton at the QB position either this year or next). Again, not sure he can quite catch Emmitt Smith at 164. But he could pass everyone else on that list, including LaDainian Tomlinson, Marcus Allen, Adrian Peterson, Walter Payton and Jim Brown.
-
3
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
-
Last season, the worst offense in the entire league (Cleveland) averaged just over 15 points per game.
The Bills defense allowed less than 15 points a total of six times.
Last season, the offensive league average in points was around 22 points per game.
The Bills defense allowed less than 22 points a total of ten times.
We know the Bills defense underperforms badly in the postseason against the NFL's elite passers. But in the regular season, they don't play those guys very often. In the regular season, this defense is consistently a Top 5-10 unit. So if you just start with that side of the ball, it's totally reasonable to say this team could win about 8 games... assuming they get an average performance from the offense (as you stipulated). I will also remind everyone that Sean McDermott walked into the locker room and coached this team to a 9-7 record in his first year, with Tyrod Taylor at QB.
Now would this team get an "average" offensive performance with Mitch Trubisky as the starting QB? Very unlikely.
-
2
-
3
-
-
On 6/12/2025 at 11:52 AM, Gugny said:
Bengals bungled their way to a Super Bowl a few years ago.
That must have been neat for their fans.
The following year, they Bungled their way past a wonderfully prepared and enthused Bills team and went the the AFCCG.
I bet that was pretty cool for their fans too.
Seems to me the Bills bungled more than the Bengals. 🤷♂️
No so much. Like the Bills with Josh Allen, the Bengals struck gold by drafting the right QB. One of Joe Burrow's injuries also helped them luck into a prime draft slot, where they could draft Jamar Chase.
But lucky breaks only last for so long. At some point, it comes back to the franchise making smart decisions. For a brief 1-2 season period, the Bengals did surpass the Bills as the AFC's #2 team. Hard to argue that point. But the Bengals shine at the top was very short-lived, because they have a terrible owner and crappy front office. The big difference between the Bills/Bengals is that once players started getting paid and vets started aging out, we were able to keep a competitive team together. They have not.
Over the last few years, we lost Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. And we just kept right on rolling. Last season was our big test, and we passed. Our offense was better than ever.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have been a downhill trajectory for the last two years. Their O-Line is really bad, and wasn't upgraded much in the offseason. Their running game hasn't been effective since Joe Mixon left. Their defense is terrible, and Trey Hendrickson is holding out. The situation with their top pick is a joke. Depth across the team isn't great either, which is why they can't seem to overcome injuries.
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
-
On 6/9/2025 at 11:46 AM, MikePJ76 said:
You want James Cook to take less than Josh Jacobs took in march of 2024? The NFL is a production business. James Cook has produced in his two seasons starting.
Compare Cook and Jacobs 2023 and 2024, Cook became a starter in 2023 its the fair place to start.
Cook has 3 rushed for 3 yards less than Jacobs in 90 less carries. Cook has accounted for for 2 more TD's total in the regular season than Jacobs and in the postseason he has 2 more TD's then him.
So again, The NFL is a production business. There is no way in which the Bills can offer James Cook less money than Josh Jacobs received 15 months ago. Throw in the fact that Cook is younger and has less wear and tear plus he is a perfect fit in the offense. The Bills are in a tough spot here. They decided to pay under performing Defensive players and WR's who produce less than cook does.
Cook deserves a raise and I hope he stands his ground. I guarantee you every player in that locker room does too. Letting Cook walk over money when a lot of under performing Defensive players were resigned irregardless if they took less or set the market will draw some double takes from players in the locker room.
and yes I understand RB has been deemed the position you don't pay because so many teams have used RB by Committee the last 20 years or so but that should not supercede The Bills as an organization doing what is best for the team to win in the near future. This type of thing is not one size fits all unless you are a backwards hat wearing youtube scout who obsesses over groupthink.
The Bills need to get this done ASAP. I love Ray Davis. I think he will be even better this year but Cook put the work in and his skillset is unique. He should be just viewed as an offensive skill player the way they turned OLB into "Edge" etc.
I said that if Cook wants to get paid early (meaning before the expiration of his current contract), then he needs to give the Bills some kind of incentive to do so.
The cap on his open-market value right now is between $12-13 million per season, at the absolute maximum. That is when Cook is an unrestricted free agent, and there are bottom-feeder teams with $80 million in cap space bidding for his services. Considering that he's not even a 3-down player, I'm not completely sure he could even fetch that amount.
Why would the Bills tear-up his rookie contract - where he's set to receive about $5.7 million, and then extend him for almost three times that amount... when they aren't even competing with another team? Because he's threatening to sit-out the offseason? The only reason Brandon Beane should even consider an extension at this point of the year, is if Cook is willing to give them a hometown discount to stay here.
-
1
-
-
16 minutes ago, SoMAn said:
No.
He's great asset to have in the offense, but he's not an every down player.
If Josh went down, there would be a big drop-off with his replacement.
If Cook was out for whatever reason, the drop-off would be noticeable, but hardly devastating if limited to the trio of Davis, Johnson, and Gore Jr.
You could even make the argument that the passing game out of the backfield might even be improved.
It doesn't take Jerry McGuire to see that Cook is not in the same tier as Henry, Barkley, McCaffrey, Taylor et al. As proof, would any of those backs be offered in trade as an even swap for Cook? Of course not. The teams with the rights to those backs would undoubtedly demand further compensation.
Without the experience of a draft cap expert or NFL GM, any one of us can easily peg Cook as an 11-12 million/year RB, maybe with a few incentives.
For a guy who probably couldn't physically be used as an every down back, he should be glad to get that much. Running Backs are not difficult to replace. If he wants to continue whine and demand more than he's worth, trade his ass to the Giants, Browns, or some other cellar dweller.
If it comes to that, enjoy your career Jimbo, and enjoy having most of January free so you can watch the NFL playoffs from the comfort of your mansion.
Exactly. Some fans (and in the media) are totally forgetting the value/overpay portion of this situation. It's not just a pay or not pay debate.
If reports are true about his contract demands being around $15 million per season, he's simply asking for way too much money from a Super Bowl contending team that is consistently tight against the salary cap. That amount would tie him with Derrick Henry as the 3rd-highest paid RB in the entire NFL (only behind Saquan Barkley and Christian McAffrey). It would put him above Jonathan Taylor as well.
Last year, Josh Jacobs signed for $12 million per... only a season after winning the rushing title. I'm not sure James Cook can even argue to be in that tier, considering that he's not our 3rd-Down back (Ty Johnson) OR our primary short-yardage guy (Josh Allen). Not to mention the Bills have a talented 2nd-year guy (Ray Davis) waiting in the wings.
Sorry... but if Cook wants an early extension, then he needs to make it financially worth it for the Bills and take a hometown discount. Less than $10 million per season if he wants a contract now. Even if he was a free agent at this very moment, I don't think he's getting close to $15 million on the open market. He has absolutely no leverage here. Holding out is just going to turn the fans against him, and give the front office the impression that he's not a team-first guy.
-
2
-
-
Some people will swear there is no such thing as injury prone...
I'm not one of those people. Yes, sports are always going to have freak occurrences that happen due to bad luck. But just like athletes can be genetically gifted in strength, speed, agility, etc., they can also be more likely to pull/tear muscles, break bones, etc. This also gets worse with age and pre-existing injuries that start to compound.
Bosa has proven over and over that he cannot stay healthy. For the first time in his career, he's got a fresh start outside of Los Angeles. He doesn't even make it through the first day of OTAs.
-
2
-
-
The Bills have historically also been a slow starter under Sean McDermott (with the exception of the Rams):
- First half last year against the Cardinals
- Losing to the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers/Achilles game
- Steelers home opener
With each passing year, I'm becoming less and less concerned about how the team starts the season. Barring significant injuries, I just can't see this team winning less than 11 games with this schedule. It's doubtful anyone really pushes them for the AFC East title. And even though homefield would be really nice, it's not anywhere near the top reason we keep losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs.
-
1
-
-
Bills should be heavy favorites in at least 9 of their games:
NYJ and NE (both games), NO, ATL, CAR, PIT and CLE
They should be moderate favorites in another 3 of their games:
MIA (both), TB
That leaves 5 remaining games as the toss-ups, which could probably go either way:
BAL, KC, HOU, CIN, PHI
Barring some catastrophic injuries or bad luck (or an AFC East opponent being way better than expected), we should be looking at an 11-12 win season at bare minimum. That would certainly be enough to win another division title. If the Bills can do a good job against their stronger opponents, finishing with 13-15 wins is definitely within reason.
-
1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
2023 counts.
80% catch rate (58% in 24).
311 YAC (274 in '24)
4.4% drop rate (8% in '24)
When targeted, Kincaid's catchable pass rate was in the 30's, but his open rate was high.
He needs to stay healthy and get on the same page as Allen. His 2024 wasn't as good as we all hoped, but he did plenty of good things and his profile as a whole is still promising.
Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game.
Hopefully that changes. But as of right now...
He hasn't been a threat in the red zone.
He hasn't been a threat downfield.
He hasn't been a reliable target on third down.
He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes.
Ignore his drops. Give him a pass because of the injury. Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable.
I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense.
Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas. Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches. He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield. And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch. Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.
-
1
-
1
-
-
Players should always get at least 3 seasons in the NFL before making a judgment call on them.
That said, Kincaid has been pretty underwhelming (at best) so far. Even before his mid-season injury.
I keep hearing how impressive his route running is from film watchers. But if he's getting open a ton, our MVP quarterback isn't finding him.
His draft report was all about hands, but he's had a big problem with drops... and I can't recall him making any impressive catches either.
YAC isn't really a strength either (at least Dawson Knox can run people over). Blocking has always been a weakness.
He needs a big season to quiet the doubters.
-
The Saints are going to do everything in their power to land Arch Manning.
Obviously his grandfather Archie was the Saints quarterback for many years, and the Manning family is originally from that area.
-
No offense, but lots of Bills fans had that same feeling before the 2022 season. And lots of people had it late last year.
There are also Jets fans online sharing clips of Justin Fields in shorts, getting excited how he's going to turn it all around.
None of it means anything.
The Buffalo Bills are one of the Top 5 most talented team in the NFL (as they have been for the past 4-5 years), so there is plenty of reason to be optimistic. But it's not going to be some magical sense of destiny. It's going to be when these players and this coaching staff can finally execute in the biggest moments.
-
4
-
2
-
3
-
-
Houston and Baltimore got us during a brief slump last year. We still almost came back and won the Houston game, and we got revenge against Baltimore in the playoffs. Nothing about the Texans really scares me. Historically we've done a good job slowing down Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry added a tough wrinkle and has always been rough for us. But we adjusted and made him less of a factor in our second matchup.
Cincinnati has given us lots of trouble with Joe Burrow under center, mostly because he's fantastic at picking apart a soft zone defense. However, the Bills defense started sprinkling in more man-coverage last year, and I think they take another step in that direction this season. The Bengals defense and run game has also gone backwards since the last time we played.
As I've continually said each of the last 3-4 seasons... the Bills have surpassed Kansas City in pure talent. And our roster is built in a favorable way to beat them. Regular season we've taken them down 4 straight years, even though the games were close. Not sure if it's just a mental thing, but we can't seem to get past them in the playoffs. Our strong defense can't get stops. It can't just be the Chiefs "turning it on" for the postseason either, because other opponents have been able to handle them.
Based purely on scheme and personnel, the Ravens are probably still our toughest matchup.
Based on the mental aspect that comes along with sports, the Chiefs are still the most difficult team for us to get past.
-
13 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
In the history of professional football has there ever been so much angst about what was picked or not picked in the lower rounds of the draft?
With all the draft information now available online, fans are becoming more and more aware of lower round guys. The more knowledgeable they become (I use that term loosely), the more they form opinions, and the more they get upset when GMs don't see it their way. The Bills aren't the only fanbase whining about getting the wrong guy in the 5th Round.
Even Beane has said he "would have liked" to draft a receiver. The problem was that need and value never lined up.
Before the draft, most would have had our top needs as CB and DT. And by a large margin. DE/Edge came in at a distant third.
That would leave WR as our 4th biggest need at best... depending on how comfortable you are with the Safety room.
Most people also felt this was a weak draft class at WR, and a very deep one on the D-Line. Beane also believed that.Not trying to be an apologist for Beane, but the most you can ask for a GM is to move around the board and address your biggest needs on Days 1-2. Most guys drafted after that are going to be backups anyway. The best way to hit on picks on Day 3 is by identifying sleepers who are undervalued. Not by hyper-focusing on a single position of need. The Bills scouts believed that Deone Walker would have been a 1st Round prospect if not for a back injury affecting his 2024 game film. Why would you pass that up, to take a flyer for a WR you really don't believe in?
-
1
-
-
5 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
Beane was wrong though we were 2nd in scoring not 1st . The Lions were first.
He actually said "including the playoffs."
When you average in those games, we were #1.
-
1
-
-
Oliver always seems to play better when he's got a solid 1-Tech playing next to him.
He was considered a pretty big disappointment with Harrison Phillips (injured most of his final days here), Quinton Jefferson, Vernon Butler and Star Lotulelei as the other DT. Then he finally broke out when we signed Daquan Jones. He had a couple Pro-Bowl caliber seasons and signed an extension. Once Jones started seeing his play decline, Oliver disappeared again.
-
57 minutes ago, corta765 said:
The point which WGR made and also is 100% right is there was a good 2-3 year stretch where some truly good talented WRs came in and were available... and the Bills only made a move when their backs were against the wall (Keon) when they could've been aggressive to double down in the draft with another guy OR been aggressive for someone like Brian Thomas who they absolutely could've went and got.
I understand not moving picks for DK even if he was a dream fit. But this offense with Brian Thomas or Ladd etc.. feels much different then it does with Keon.
I don't think it's fair to say the Bills only made a move when their back was against the wall.
Beane was totally on-top of the WR situation until the Diggs drama last spring.
Go back to exactly 3 years ago (right after the 13 seconds game). The Bills had All-Pro level Stefon Diggs right in the prime of his career, still motivated and happy. Gabe Davis was coming off his 4 touchdown performance, and seemed primed for a huge breakout. Many honestly thought we had one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the entire league at that time. That offseason, Beane still double-dipped to replace a declining Cole Beasley in the slot... signing Jamison Crowder and drafting Khalil Shakir.
Fast forward to the next offseason. Bills still have Diggs/Davis/Shakir. Most of us went into the draft talking about WR2 as one of our top needs, but at this point it was more about the future (not desperation). Things look good that someone will fall to us, and then the Top 4 receivers all go off the board in succession at 20-21-22-23. With the cupboard totally bare, Beane decides to go with Dalton Kincaid as the next best receiving weapon for the offense. We can criticize him for not trading up, but who knows if anyone would have been willing to make a deal.
Going into the 2024 offseason, the Bills were planning to let Davis walk. They immediately signed Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins as potential replacements at the #2 spot. And most felt they would go after a WR in the draft (as they eventually did with Keon Coleman). But things really didn't go off the rails until they got side-swiped by Diggs and were forced to trade him. Don't forget this was weeks after the start of free agency, when it was too late for Beane to properly address the loss. Based on the cap implications, it's pretty clear they were forced to get rid of him at least a year earlier than planned. And despite this, the Bills finished #1 in scoring and had the best statistical offense in team history.
-
9
-
1
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, WNYFAN1 said:
I don't dislike Beane, at all. But it does make me wonder, is he, or really any GM, much better at the draft than a random number generator would be?
Put another way, what percentage of the draft is luck vs skill?
There are elements of both luck and skill.
But it's no coincidence that some GMs (Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens) are consistently finding good players at the back-end of the draft, and others (Jets, Browns) keep picking busts at the very top.
Beane was fortunate to land a generational QB with his first draft pick ever. It has made everything after it just a little bit easier. But he still had to cleverly maneuver his way up the draft board and into the Top 10 to get him, without sacrificing a fortune or the team's future. He also had to put in the work to know Josh Allen was the guy, when lots of others believed it should have been Josh Rosen.
Anyone who was here during the Tom Donahoe, Marv Levy, Buddy Nix years knows the truth. Those guys didn't just have bad luck. They consistently made poor decisions about positional value, cap management, how talent fit on the roster... along with just simply picking bad players.
As I've said before. Beane isn't in the top tier of GMs with Howie Roseman, Brett Veach or Eric DeCosta. But he is in the next group, and probably in the Top 5 across the NFL. Even when he makes mistakes, they usually aren't totally catastrophic. And he usually balances them out with smart decisions elsewhere. For example... many would say that his worst high draft pick so far is Kaiir Elam. But he also managed to offset that error by finding Christian Benford in the 5th Round.
-
1
-
-
17 minutes ago, eball said:
Of course it would! Nobody, including Beane, disagrees with that. The problem is the incessant criticism of Beane as if he is consciously ignoring it, rather than understanding he has to build an entire football team and make decisions that often sacrifice one need for another.
We can debate whether a speed receiver or a better D line is more important. That’s fine. What’s ridiculous — in my opinion — is somehow suggesting Beane is an idiot for not going the way some want him to go.
This is exactly the point.
The Bills currently have the best QB in the NFL (or close to it), one of the best O-Lines in football and a Top 5-10 running back room. Yes, we could stand to upgrade the WR corps. Beane said so himself. But it's not like he's completely ignored that aspect of the team. Our top draft picks in 2023-2024 were both pass catchers, and our top free agents the last two offseasons were also receivers.
This offense finished #1 in scoring last year, with very close to the same group of WRs. In the playoff loss against Kansas City, our offense scored 29 points against a team that only allowed an average of 19 during the season. They did very good against one of the best units in the NFL.
On the other side, our defense allowed Kansas City to have its best scoring game of the entire season. They once again struggled to get pressure, cover receivers and make third-down stops. It could be argued that we allowed the Chiefs to have their best games during 2023 and 2021 as well... and for the exact same reasons. They have played poorly against a group that has been mediocre against almost everyone else.
At this point, it should be painfully clear what is holding the Bills back from taking the next step.
-
1
-
2
-
Perspective on the Bills from Eagles fan site.
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Teams in Buffalo's position don't usually make HUGE on-paper upgrades in a single offseason. Without tons of salary cap space, the focus is on bargain free agents. Not bid splash signings. And draft picks in the mid/late 20's are not expected to make a tremendous immediate impact, as opposed to the Top 5-10 prospects.
But teams in Buffalo's position also don't NEED to make huge upgrades. We have won our division and at least one playoff game 5 seasons in a row. A play or two different, and we could easily have appeared in 2-3 Super Bowls over the last few years. All we really need is a few tweaks in the right areas, and luck to finally bounce our way.
Whether we made the right moves this offseason remains to be seen. The idea that we needed some kind of major overhaul to suddenly have a chance at the Eagles or Chiefs is pure sportsfan ego talking. Anybody with a tiny ounce of football knowledge knows the Bills are right in the same tier as them.
The Bills had one of the best O-Lines in football last year, along with the hardest QB to sack in the league.
The Chiefs struggled blocking, and were shuffling guys around going into the playoffs.
Just because KC struggled in that game doesn't mean it would have played out the same against us.