akm0404
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Posts posted by akm0404
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There aren't going to be any Bills fans left if they keep overmatched McDermott and his band of fools. We'll be begging Bon Jovi to take this garbage to Toronto so we can be free of this hell on earth if we have to bash our heads into this wall any longer. They must be fired by lunchtime.
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Out-prepared, out-coached, out-classed like always. Always inventing new ways to be humiliated. It was over in 13 seconds, if only there was anything but some old fool at the helm to have realized it.
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If McDermott or Dorsey have a job at lunchtime tomorrow, you know that whoever is running this clown show must be incapacitated.
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To the folks who are freaking out about losing a third round pick: they weren’t going to pick the guy you wanted anyhow trust me.
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Can’t help but chuckle to myself about how things come full circle after years (decades) of the misery of checkdown qbs, we finally have a hero slangin’ it and some pine for him to embrace his inner Trent Edwards.
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The whole “he will never be active barring injury” thing is silly. We are going to have multiple rbs banged up all the time. Even the odds of making it to week 1 completely healthy is low. Depth is good, depth wins championships.
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Don’t care about fantasy points. Can he make big plays in huge games in crucial situations? I hope so!
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Linebackers are a crapshoot who knows if he will be any good. Either way we are going to get abused at the LOS and our path to victory will be scoring early and often and funneling opponents into our strength (the secondary).
if teams keep it close enough to physically dominate our defense, we have lost. That just isn’t how this team intends to play defense, which is why we favor speedy/rangy linebackers that can cover. There is no inside thumper coming to save us.
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20 minutes ago, FireChans said:
You know we were 9th in RZ offense right? And would have been higher if Josh wasn’t tossing them into linebackers’ chests?
I’ll take your word for it, but there is no universe where last year’s Buffalo Bills were nearly good, creative, and multiple enough in goal-to-go situations, and I assume you’d agree. I hope this helps, because Andy Reid and the Chiefs have a huge edge on us there (and not in many other spots imo).
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Sure why not rbs are silly and don’t matter it’s 2023
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Y’all are a bunch of silly geese talking about how many catches and yards the guy will have and using that as a yardstick to measure success.
We have an elite team with an elite qb in a championship window. This isn’t fantasy football where stats are king.
Remember last year every time we would have first and goal from the 5 and you knew deep down it was going to be almost impossible to score 6? I do.
Can this guy be used to generate positive matchups in key situations that can get us over the hump against other elite teams? I don’t care if he has 10 or 30 or 100 catches - I care about the 4th quarter Third and Goal against KC when we are up a field goal looking to ice the game. Does Kincaid draw two defenders with a smooth release leaving Cook open in the flat?
We need to become more difficult to defend and I’m hoping this helps. But really, who cares whether him or Trent Sherfield catches a random 20 yard pass in week 2?<!rant>
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54 minutes ago, Caesar said:
The division means nothing if the Ravens have a coin toss opportunity to play the first playoff game at home...? We lose the only benefit the division title offers, in fact we are more shafted as we could lose home field and have the #1's schedule next season... lol
I do not agree with your framing of this. If the scenario happens where you lose to the Ravens this week and the other results break such that the Ravens are slotted exactly into the 6 seed, you then have a 50% chance of hosting the game - you do not lose it outright. So you only lose that home game in the unlikely (but not impossible) scenario where: You lose to the Ravens, the Chargers lose to the Broncos, and you lose the coin flip. Current implied odds of this happening are 26.18% (Lose to Ravens) * 57.11% (Broncos beat Chargers) * 50% (Lose coin toss) = 7.47%.
So essentially, there is a very, very small chance that you end up playing in Baltimore as the #3 seed (less than 1 in 10 chance), and you control your own destiny to prevent that adverse impact.
In the scenario where the Bills/Bengals game was not suspended, you'd have maybe a 40% chance of losing that and a 26.18% chance of losing to the Ravens and then 100% of the time going on the road as the probable #5 seed - something that may have happened around 10.4% of the time (the same 1 in 10 or so chance of getting shafted with a road game against Baltimore).
But, all that said I am not disagreeing with your basic premise that voiding the game hurt your team more than the Bills (and CERTAINLY more than the Chiefs). You gave up all of your (small but not zero) equity to get the #1 seed, AND have a 10% or so chance of winning the division and playing Baltimore on the road. In return you "benefit" by no longer having the scenario where 10% of the time you went lose/lose if the Bills/Bengals game continued and fell to the 5 seed.
In contrast, the Bills gave up only a portion of their #1 seed equity (coming back to beat the Bengals and then beating the Patriots - 33.2% probability or so versus now needing a win vs. the Patriots and a Chiefs loss, a 15.5% or so chance). So, the Bills lost around a 17% chance at the #1 seed.
The Chiefs meanwhile GAINED the entirety of the Bengals #1 seed equity, a portion of the Bills #1 seed equity (raising them to a >85% chance at the bye), and only conceded a neutral site AFC Championship game in certain scenarios, most likely Chiefs vs. Bills.
All that is a thought exercise in probability and I still contend that its mostly academic as you need to beat all of the good teams to win the Super Bowl and it doesn't end up making that big of a difference in the end. Also, some kid almost died and this is just a some sportsball games, so we should probably care less.
Cheers!
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2 minutes ago, Caesar said:
Umm, we also lost the ability to WIN both games too. This is the problem we are having with this solution, it seems to have been created to fit the scenario that the Bengals would have lost to the Bills and thus we were given these stipulations.
Absolutely - my point was that you have to balance the scenarios that help you with those that hurt you. Not suggesting there aren't some of both, but you can't solely claim that you lost your multi-leg parlay shot at the #1 seed and discount that you also negated the multi-leg parlay that loses you the division.
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Caesar has a legitimate point that at the time of the injury, the Bengals had overcome being a 2.5 point underdog, and were a slight favorite in live wagering. In the most optimistic light, betting markets favored the Bengals to win the game somewhere around 55% of the time. While this certainly doesn't equate to any sort of high probability of winning, I think it's fair to say they were better than a coinflip at that fateful moment in time.
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6 minutes ago, Caesar said:
Yet we have more wins and 2 less losses than the Ravens, yet we were gifted? That makes no sense.You guys lost the ability to lose both of your last two and lose your division. The Bills lost the chance to win their last two and get the #1 seed and the goodies that come with that. The Ravens lost the chance for the Bengals to lose to the Bills and have a chance to beat them for the AFCN crown.
The Chiefs lost...well I'm not exactly sure but it must be something right?!
But, at least the Bengals and the Bills control a bit of their own destiny and winning this week secures clear advantages in the playoff seeding.
Either way, to win the AFC Championship, someone is going to have to run the gauntlet and defeat two out of three of the Bills/Bengals/Chiefs (most likely). This isn't the NFC where you can finesse your way with advantageous matchups, it's going to be brutal.
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1 minute ago, Dr. Football said:
If we lose Sunday is it home/home/arrowhead? Assuming chiefs and bangles win.
If we lose and Chiefs/Bengals win, the Bengals will be the #2 seed and we'll be the #3 seed, I do believe. The Bills and Bengals would both be 12-4, with identical conference records (8-3). I checked and it looks like they would also have an identical record vs. common opponents, and the next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory. Bengals have us beat there, because the record of their opponents that they beat is better than the record of opponents we beat by several games.
So, we'd host the #3/#6 game, and could go on the road to Cincinatti if they win their #2/#7 game, I'm pretty sure. Then on to Arrowhead, or home against whoever upset the Chiefs perhaps.
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Don't forget this all goes out the window (not having to play a road playoff game) if the Bills lose to the Patriots on Sunday.
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I'm sure the Chiefs will do the right thing and refuse to accept the #1 seed over a more worthy team that defeated them head to head.
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Anyone have a link to the McDermott/Josh presser?
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Lol it’s a punter the bills are going to punt like 10 times all year. Bye Felicia. He will be cut as soon as they can get someone with a functional leg on a plane.
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7 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
I have no problem with the process. I just hope we got the right one. My problem with the Hopkins pick is that Brandon McManus and Jason Myers were UDFA that year and both better than Hopkins. Draft a kicker, fine, just make sure you are really getting the best one.
Yah come on guys, just make sure you always draft the best player. This guy finally figured out the secret to success! -
A. Obviously.
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Everything you need to know about Diggs is that he caught 1130 yards last year in an offense that literally refused to throw the ball. They made our old “ground and pound” offense look like the greatest show on turf.
Heck Cousins started the season with an 8 completion for 90something yard gem.
I’m not expecting the Bills become a top-10 passing offense next year, but the Bills now have one of the best receiving corps in the league.
They undisputedly have the best WR in the AFC East (and QB and RB *smile*)
Let yourself feel the waves of happiness wash over you for today is not the day for misery.
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Welcome to the new NFL, where a culture of inflicting damage has led to pre-game banter shifting from “X-s and O-s” to medical information on the effects of trauma on brain tissue.
Fire McDermott - 12 On the Field INEXCUSABLE
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Week after week, year after year we show up flat, unprepared, unfocused. Only McDermott and Dorsey can pull a rabbit out of a hat and turn Josh Allen into a loser.
I do not trust this process. I hate this process. It must end today. McDermott has had dozens of chances, and yet we look on in bemused horror as it happens time and time again. Perhaps fireable offense #274 will be the actual straw that broke the camel's back.