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symbiant

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Posts posted by symbiant

  1. Cannot validate that. They would have to make a very aggressive offer.

     

    There's a lot of rumors going around on Rotoworld that the Redskins, Falcons, etc. want to move up.

    Would we consider moving down?

  2. Why do we do this every couple weeks? The guy says he'll let us know when he knows something. He's earned everyone's trust by now. Four days later someone inevitably starts a new thread with NGU somewhere in the title. Thankfully NGU tolerates it really well, but it'd probably drive me a little bonkers.

     

    +1

  3. Cams score doesn't put him in the wow factor either way. His "true" value could be high teens or mid 20s honestly, and much like the 40 not being football speed, this isn't football processing under a pass rush... Just part of the package to take into account.

     

    That's pretty much what I'm saying.

    Let's be real here. For the all the people that think this score doesn't matter...

    If Cam Newton scored a 40 on the Wonderlic, he would have been guaranteed as the #1 overall pick.

     

    Instead he did ok... maybe even slightly better than anticipated.

    Unfortunately, MOST of the 2nd tier quarterbacks ROCKED the test.

     

    This starts to seed doubt whether or not to invest such a high draft pick in Cam Newton, if there are possible reasonable alternatives in round 2 with quick decision making skills.

     

    Personally, I now believe the Bills will NOT take him at 3 and go defense... especially with the QB options in round 2/3 looking better on paper.

  4. yes, there was a recentering to get the average score back to about 500. the wonderlic didnt have a similar recenter, although i suppose the difficulty may have changed to maintain the average. i havent heard that but its possible. i just dont think there was a sudden influx of low scores like the sats saw in the mid 90s. i think the demographics on the wonderlic have remained pretty consistent.

     

    Logically if there were MULTIPLE resets of a MAJOR standardized test, it would be pretty unusual for the Wonderlic to not undergo a scoring reset as well over the past 15 years.

     

    Especially if low scorers can improve their scores so easily:

    - Losman improved from 14 to 31

    - Vince Young improved from 6 to 16

     

    So I stand by my statements

    - 21 is not that good of a score for Cam Newton, especially when he's projected as a top 5-10 pick. It's another Con which increases his risk. Especially with the 2nd tier prospects all hitting Home Runs with their scores.

    - A wonderlic score of 20 isn't the same as a score of 20 fifteen years ago.

  5. You do realize the "inflated scores" are because there's a third section and it's scored out of 2400 now right?

     

    You do realize that around ~1994... to get an 800 on the math, you had to get 0-1 wrong.

    After ~1994 you could get about 5-10 answers wrong (uncertain how many) but still get an 800.

     

    To tie this back to football, I would be shocked if the Wonderlic didn't have similar inflation/scoring "adjustments".

  6. You seem to recall from where?

     

    How about San Diego's recent drafting history?

    Charlie Whitehurst 33 Round 3

    Eli Manning 39 Round 1

    Phillip Rivers 40 Round 1

    Drew Brees 28 Round 2

     

    Dream on with Cam. If it's a QB, it will be Gabbert in Round 1.

    The problem isn't actually Cam's scores, but more the fact that the 2nd tier QB's all scored VERY well... which lessens the need to reach for Cam in 1.

  7. Of course you don't think comparisons can be made, they go against your argument.

     

    Can we get some numbers to chart QB wonderlic scores over time. My bet is that they've been rising. Very few top prospects have low scores. Hmm

     

    Or maybe it has to do with:

    1) The fact that a 1600 SAT score in the 1990's was actually a perfect score... whereas now you can get a 1600 on the SAT and get many, many questions wrong. (Score inflation in Wonderlic also?)

    2) There are free Wonderlic sample tests on the web so people are more prepared.

    3) The Wonderlic score's importance has risen in the past decade or so.

  8. I think based on 21 being much higher than people thought he could do, most folks would agree this keeps Cam in the running for an early pick.

     

    I'm betting we pass. Just my opinion.

    Maybe our standards are different, but with all that extra preparation and attention, I don't think 21 is a great score for a #3 overall pick QB.

    I think Newton falls to 5-10 now.

     

    And I don't think you can compare scores from Marino/Kelly's era... that was so long ago.

    That's like comparing SAT scores from the 1990's to the inflated scores nowadays.

  9. Marcell Dareous, Nick Fairley, Muhommad Wilkerson, Corey Liuget, Stephen Paea, Phil Taylor, and Marvin Austin. This is one of the deepest DL drafts I have ever seen. If Buddy is truthful and truly believes Troup would rank #1 or 2 in this class- that is indeed high praise

     

    He said that Troup would be the #1 or #2 Nose Tackle, not necessarily DT... big difference.

  10. Really nice job.

     

    I would:

    1) Put in AJ Green over Prince Amukamura.... i think we'd go AJ Green before Prince.

    2) Put in Martez Wilson over Jason Pinkston... unlikely we take Pinkston over the rest of those guys, but if a Locker/Martez/Phil Taylor are there... they would be top options.

     

    Colin Kaepernick might not last until round 3 with over 10 teams needing QB.

  11. Consider:

    - Mayock's been saying that this year's draft is loaded with DLine talent.

    - About 10 teams are in need of a QB. No CLEAR franchise QB is coming back to us in Round 2.

     

    Analogy:

    Just thinking in terms of fantasy sports, if I know one position is loaded with talent... I will generally draft another position of need first and hope that someone falls from my top tier at the loaded position.

    Tiered drafting + Position Scarcity

     

    Let's relate this to fantasy baseball since it's heating up.

    There are approx 8 elite first baseman ranked in the top 25 picks (yahoo).

     

    If you have a top pick and use it on a 1B early, you risk that the best available player coming back to you in round 2 might be... another 1B? Then what do you do? "Reach" for another position? Take two first basemen? That is why there are 2 SS and 1 3B in the top 5 rankings even though statistically they are not near the top 10... position scarcity.

     

    A very safe play would be to take that great player at a shallow position (SS/3B), and then come back around and get a pretty decent player in a deep position (1B) later.

     

    In football terms:

    If you take that best QB, you can come back around and get a pretty decent Front Seven Defensive player later. (For example, Rams with Bradford+Saffold vs Okung/Trent+Claussen.)

     

    Conclusion

    If an ELITE must have player falls in this draft to 3, they'll take him. Right now the elite players are at non-premier positions. If we have no elite players to choose from and QBs are rated close, I think the Bills will lean towards QB (Gabbert/Locker/Newton) in round 1... then Best Available Front Seven in Round 2.

     

    PS - This isn't what I want, but what I think will happen unless a must have player is there at 3. Let's hope there is a Suh type no brainer guy left for us.

  12. Our standards have gone way down. Our WR's don't strike fear in anyone and have a lot to prove that they are a "Strength on the team".

    It would be more fair to say they have the most potential on the team maybe.

     

    1) Lee Evans can be easily contained (as demonstrated in the past few years) and hasn't shown to be more than a situational deep threat.

    2) Stevie Johnson displayed his chemistry with Fitz (due to extensive practice likely as they were 2nd stringers), but teams will game plan for him next year. Let's see how he does next year.

    3) Roscoe Parrish is fast... but also apparently very brittle and easy to simply take the ball from.

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