hondo in seattle
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Posts posted by hondo in seattle
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We're giving up more points than we are scoring. Pettine isn't immune from criticism in this. We tend to give up very large chunk plays... I call it feast or famine.
Edit: To clarify before someone has a heart attack. I think Pettine is a better DC than we've had in a while. Our defense is improved. But I still wouldn't qualify it as a "good" defense.
5th in yards per play. 2nd in INTs. 1st in sacks. That doesn't qualify as "good"? You set a high bar!
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As the season draws to a dismal close, I think it may be interesting to evaluate the performance of our two new coordinators.
Hackett:
The Bills quick pace offense has the Bills running the 5th most offensive plays in the NFL. Despite this, we are 25th in scoring. We average a mere 4.7 yard per play - 30th in the NFL.
Our passing rating is only 72.5 - also 30th in the league.
With an ineffective passing attack led by inexperienced QBs, you would have though Hackett would have put in overtime to make the running game work. After all, we have two talented backs. But CJ is averaging only 4.6 ypc this year - down from 6.0 last year. This is a huge drop off. Hackett just doesn't seem to have the knack for getting CJ into space that Chan had.
Pettine:
Our D is ranked 18th by yards allowed but this again is skewed by the high number of plays they've faced. Pettine's D is giving up 5.0 yards per play - 6th best in the NFL. The Bills are #2 in the NFL in INTs and #1 in sacks. Opposing QBs collectively have a low 78.9 passer rating. Opposing teams have rushed for 4.2 yard per carry which places the Bills in the middle of the pack versus the run - not outstanding but a huge improvement versus last year (5.0).
While I understand that the QB situation has been less than ideal, I have to wonder about Hackett's readiness for the job. Pettine, on the other hand, is proving himself to be a solid DC even without Rex to mentor him. What's particularly concerning about the Bills lack of offensive production is that our HC is a former OC. We can say that Hackett is a rookie and he'll get better with experience. But Marrone is already supposed to have that experience. As we look forward to 2014, I worry about the future of the Bills offense, not our defense.
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Drafting QBs is a hit or miss proposition. No NFL GM is perfect at talent evaluation, especially at the QB position. I don't think EJ's struggles are an indictment of Nix or Whaley.
However, I do think OBD needs to draft another QB. EJ is a rookie and may yet mature into a franchise QB. Then again, he may not. We need an insurance policy. I hope to see the Bills draft another QB in the early rounds to compete with EJ.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but don't the Wilsons have full control as to who they inevitably sell the team to? Just because this band of canadians might have billions at their disposal, don't you think the Wilson's would rather stay loyal to Ralph after his passing and sell it to a group with interest in Buffalo?
So who the heck cares how much money they have, in the end the team is not theirs unless the Wilsons choose them and they won't.
This is what I'm hoping for and Jim Kelly's remarks in the past seem to indicate something like this.
It might make more business sense for a billionaire to buy the team and move it to LA or TO or where-ever. Let's hope local loyalties and respect for tradition trump business sense.
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I've really been encouraged by Pettine. The defense is far more aggressive than it's been in years past and the result has been more big plays (Ints and sacks). And despite all the injuries in the secondary in the beginning of the year, the Bills are only giving up 5.1 yards per play which is solid. Pettine will only make the defense better and better while he remains with the Bills.
I've been less thrilled by Hackett. Obviously, he gets a bit of a flyer for the QB situation. Still the numbers aren't good. The Bills run a lot of plays in their fast paced offense so their overall offensive production isn't horrible. But they're only averaging 4.7 yards per play - third worst in the NFL. It's also concerning to see CJ's yards-per-carry drop by nearly 2 yards (from 6.0 to 4.1). Nathaniel doesn't seem to know how to create space for his star back.
And Danny Crossman has performed about as expected - badly. He wasn't a good ST coach in Detroit and according to Football Outsiders, the Bills are ranked 27th so far this year.
Let's hope the Bills make a run to end the season to create some positive momentum for next year and some credibility for Marrone. But even if they do, Marrone will need to make some hard decisions about his staff during the offseason. Crossman needs to go and Hackett needs to grow.
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Now I feel like an a**. Last month I attended my buddy's going away party here in Chicago. One of the guests in attendance was the director of security for the Bears. I started talking to this guy about the Bills and he told me that Bon Jovi wanted to buy the Bills. I brushed him off at first and assumed it was the liquor talking, but apprently I was wrong. He went on to say that the NFL really wants Bon Jovi 's group to be an owner in the NFL.
I need to track this guy down.
Jason LaCanfora talked to the same guy you talked to and put his liquor talk in the news.
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Sports Illustrated once rated Buffalo the best tailgaters in the NFL.
Unfortunately, this website rates Buffalo as the most "dead" city in America:
1. Buffalo
In 1900, Buffalo was the eighth largest city in America. It was located on one of the busiest sections of the Erie Canal, the terminus of the canal on the Great Lakes. Thanks to its location, Buffalo had huge grain milling operations and one of the largest steel mills in the country. Buffalo prospered during WWII as did many northern industrial cities. After the WWII, the manufacturing plants returned to the production of cars and industrial goods. The population rose to more than 500,000 in the mid-1950s. It is half that today. Buffalo was wounded irreparably by the de-industrialization of America.
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the difference between Reed and Roaf and Shields are that those guys were arguably the best at their positions not only at that time but overall. Reed wasn't ever near the best in any given season. Over time he was fantastic.
In a way, Andre's the Emmitt Smith of WRs. Emmitt was never the best in the game during his playing days. There were always other backs I - and most fans - considered better. But Emmitt was very good for a very long time and that got him into the Hall.
Reed, like Emmitt, was very good for a very long time. But he had the misfortune of (1) playing when Jerry Rice was playing, and (2) playing right as passing attacks were starting to take off and thus his stats don't especially shine when compared to some more recent players.
Yet Andre was selected for the Pro Bowl 7 times. That's usually sufficient to get you into the Hall of Fame. Then again, Will Shields was a 12 time Pro Bowler and he isn't in the Hall yet either.
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seeing as there are about 8 new head coaches each year, i say he gets offered one of em.
There are 32 OCs and 32 DCs out there, most of whom want to be head coaches. That makes 64 guys competing for those 8 openings, not counting the successful college HCs wanting to move up to the NFL.
I just don't think Pettine's resume is strong enough yet to beat out all that competition.
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I dunno...
2-8 Falcons @Toronto
2-8 @ Bucs
1-9 @ Jags
5-5 Dolphins
7-2 @ Patriots
3 teams on the road, and one of them the division leader at 7-2
How much would it be if we won our next three games against weak opponents and found ourselves smack dab in the middle of the playoff race? How great would this be for building confidence for next year?
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I don't think we'll make the playoffs. I do enjoy however that we can talk about the mathematical possibility of it in mid November.
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First off, this guy won state championship. That tells me he had talent on his team, and I think that is the variable not being discussed enough on this.
If I were say the Broncos, I would never punt and probably score even more points and be harder to beat. If I were Jax, it would probably be a horrible decision and I would lose by 40+ points every week.
It boils down to the ability to convert as well as the defenses ability to hold when giving up good field position on failed conversions. Bad teams are bad for a reason, they can't convert 3rd downs and sustain drives nor consistently stop opponents. Getting an extra down isn't going to help enough to off set the huge field position advantage they give up when it most often fails.
But I could see a team like the Broncos or the Saints implementing a rarely, or never, punt philosophy and see it work well for them because of their extremely talented Offense. I do agree with other posters too...the onside kick is too low of a percentage in the NFL to convert to see value in regularly doing it, especially if the other team is always prepared to field it.
Yep. If a team has a low 3rd down conversion rate, it would probably have a low 4th down conversion rate. A team like that should punt in most 4th down situations, whereas a high-powered offense might be better off going for it.
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So that means he's 7-3 on the season, right?
I think you're right because I believe Rodak has picked against us every week. So far, sadly enough, it hasn't been a bad strategy.
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I can't think of one QB that proved himself a franchise QB after six games. Not one. Going back some 45 years. The closest I can think of, after 6 games, was Marino, who just seemed to explode out of the gates his rookie year and then set the world on fire the next few seasons.
I'm not necessarily against the idea of drafting another QB next year if indeed we have him rated as the BPA, but I am under no illusions that he will look anything more like a franchise QB than EJ does after his first six games, too.
GO BILLS!!!
K-9, I actually agree. I'm just tired of waiting for the next Jim Kelly. I'd like us to double the probability of finding a franchise QB by taking another QB in the next draft. I'd like to have more than one egg in the basket.
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So far, EJ has not proven himself a bust but neither has he proven himself to be a franchise QB. Given the importance of the position, I would draft a QB early next year. Between the two, hopefully one shows himself capable of the job.
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I wish nothing but the best for Fitz, but seeing the nosedive TN has taken with him at the helm really makes me appreciate what Chan Gailey was able to accomplish here.
I know a lot of people complained how Chan used CJ but look at how productive CJ was last year versus this. I liked the way Chan ran that offense. Fitz's limitations were clear to everyone, include opposing defenses, yet Chan fielded a credible offense. Where he failed was in finding a credible DC.
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The Bills are 24th in the league in points per game. Considering the following, I'm not sure that's horrible production:
* Our starting QB is a rookie who plays like one.
* Our starting QB has been injured. Our other QBs have been a PS player and UDFA.
* Our RBs have been dinged up.
* Our offensive line is only so-so.
* Our TEs are only so-so.
* Our WRs have been injured.
Also, let's remember that Hackett is still learning. Presumably, he's going to get better with more NFL experience.
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The leadership shadow of the HC is exceptionally important. I don't see any problem with Marrone blaming himself for the Bills woes and, at the same time, holding the position coaches and players accountable. I like that he's putting a lot of stress on winning.
As fans, we're only exposed to a small fraction of what the HC says and does. But that little fraction is actually encouraging. What may not be encouraging is the result on the field.
But I'm not sure what people were expecting. If Bill Cowher had been our coach instead of Marrone, he might have squeaked out an extra win or two but no more than that. Marrone isn't making excuses so I'll make excuses for him. We've had three QBs under center and none of them have been very good: two rooks and a PS player. Our offensive line isn't great. Our WR corps and secondary have been ransacked by injuries. And we're implementing new offensive and defensive schemes. I think it's way too early to conclude that "Marrone-ism" - whatever that is - doesn't work.
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He had control when he hit the ground and at that point he was down by contract: play over. What happened after the play was over shouldn't matter. That was a catch.
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My stats:
9 times this year, I had hope at halftime.
7 times this year, I still had hope at the 2 minute warning.
3 times this year, I actually got to celebrate a win.
Countless times I've muttered something like, "I really got to stop being a Bills fan."
I'm tired of so-called moral victories where we outgained our opponent, or took a good team to the wire, or would have won a game except for single play, bad call, or injury. Forget nobles failures, Coach Marrone. Please give me some ugly wins.
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Exactly. All thing equal, I would go with the guy who is knowledgeable and passionate about the team. I wouldn't be surprised if he came into the interview and wowed everyone with a lot of bills-specific stuff.
Given that he does analytics as a hobby, it wouldn't surprise me that he offered some insight into the Bills that impressed Brandon. While the other candidates talked notionally, Lyons was able to state things in the interview that were potentially useful to the club.
Also, I think it's fair to say that not all great players come from Div I powerhouses nor do all great analytics guys come from Big Three consulting firms. I can't see - given the paucity of the information we have right now - how any of us can yet determine whether or not this is a good hire. I'll wait and see.
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If the Qbs switched teams, score would be reversed or even more in Bills favor. Shows value of recognizing Talent at the QB position and not to belabor the obvious, one of the main reasons we're in the situation weve been in, seems like forever.
I like EJ too and hope he is the answer but he is still unproven. Lewis may be a good backup, hoepfully a better backup than Fitz has proven to be (and he was our franchise QB!!!).
An interesting thought: Brees in a Bills uniform. FJ and CJ would have space to run because defenses would be afraid of our QB's arm... SJ and Woods would be stars because Brees would connect with them even when they were covered... Some of our defenders would become bona fide stars because winners are made into stars.
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Every team has players who are NFL superstars. But how many teams have tailgating superstars like Pinto Ron? He's been in a number of NFL films and even has his own wikipedia entry!
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According to the SI survey (2008), half of Bills fans will tailgate for 4 or more hours. No other city comes close.
I've also heard anecdotally that the Bills have more people partying in the parking lot during games than any other NFL locale.
When you think that Buffalo metro has a population of a million and 100,000 are at the Ralph, it's pretty impressive.
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Are you trying to prove that Buffalo has the best tailgaiting in the league?? Or just better than Seattle?
I've only tailgated at the Ralph and at the Meadowlands.
I would LOVE to tailgate in Green Bay.
Seattle is dead last in some rankings! I'm tyring to prove we're #1. Obviously it's all subjective and rational arguments can be made for Arrowhead, Lambeau, etc. I'm hoping to find rational arguments in print for Buffalo.
Btw, I thought this was cool:
Buffalo Bills – Ralph Wilson Stadium
Tailgating Score: 9 out of 10
Reason – Some people park their campers and RVs as early as Friday for a Sunday early afternoon game… and leave the day after the game. For many, a tailgate that some estimate draws twice as many people in the lots as the stadium, is one of the top 50 things you have to do before you die. With large lots surrounding the stadium, the unbelievable scene spreads in a 360-degree circle around the facility. Touch football games can be found in every aisle, and special tailgate vehicles with built-in grills, sound systems and hot tubs on flatbed trailers make the rounds.
(http://www.tailgatingideas.com/nfl-tailgating-cities/#sthash.L3Exi0fM.dpuf)
Pettine versus Hackett
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Isn't that partly Hackett's fault or do you think that's explainable by the loss of Levitre?
But I agree with the main point, the O Line hasn't been great. Too often, our backs have no where to go.