hondo in seattle
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Posts posted by hondo in seattle
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5 hours ago, todzilla said:
I just don’t get the Fred Jackson crowd. He was an above average RB. Shady and Marshawn are both far better. And if we are talking prime, Spillers 2012 is better than anything Freddie dreamed of. Plus there is already an above average RB on the current team. I know he was likable, but for the purposes of this exercise, there’s no way.
It’s Mario and TO.I think Fred is woefully underrated by some. I watched him take handoffs, see no hole whatsoever, and still make a positive play. He led the NFL in Yards After Contact in 2011 with a YAC of 3.75. To put that in context, Christian McCaffrey had 2.2 YAC last year. No 2023 qualifier surpassed 2.7. It's easy to gain yards as RB when you have gaping holes to run through. Freddy was given lemons and made lemonade.
Additionally, he was an all-around back who could catch out of the backfield and blocked really well. Obviously, he was also a high motor guy. When you combine skill set and effort, Jackson was a very good back.
FYI...
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4 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
First off, it was not my intention to personally attack you. If that's how my earlier post came across, I apologize.
That said, knowledge is not a substitute for insight. People with excessive amounts of knowledge can sometimes make worse decisions than those who have some knowledge, but who are not subject matter experts. Why?
There are times when one key piece of knowledge is what's necessary to make the right decision. A highly intelligent and insightful person, who also has a lot of knowledge, will often grasp that one key piece of information. Now imagine a different person who isn't necessarily as clear a thinker, but who has also accumulated vast amounts of knowledge. This vast pile of knowledge is like a haystack, and the person in question must decide which parts of the haystack are the needles.
When the Bills drafted E.J. Manuel, Doug Whaley was very pleased. Very excited about Manuel. One of the things Whaley was most pleased by was that when Manuel walked into a room, he exuded a commanding presence. Also, Manuel had done well in his interviews with the Bills.
Whaley had a lot of knowledge about Manuel that I didn't have. But, when I watched Manuel's highlight videos, there was nothing there. No special passes. Pretty much every pass I saw was something which could have been done by an average college QB. That was the needle. For Whaley, that needle got lost in his haystack of other knowledge about Manuel.
The EJ Manuel pick was indeed perplexing. I do remember the remarks about his commanding presence. And comments about his big hands being an advantage in the cold winds of Buffalo. Big hands and a commanding presence aren't enough to make a great NFL QB. The focus on these traits didn't give anyone the impression Whaley did a good, holistic evaluation and I always wondered what the discussions were like among the Bills scouts. What were they collectively seeing? Or was Whaley the only one seeing it?
Another perplexing one was Aaron Maybin and his one good college season, indifference toward football, and 'quick first step.'
But let's say I sit down at a poker table in Vegas next to a professional poker player. I don't know squat about poker. But I'm smart enough to realize the pro is reading my tells. So I start sending false tells and win a hand. At that point, I'm thinking, "I just outsmarted a know-it-all, arrogant pro!" And I did! My native genius won out!!!
Of course, by the end of the evening, he's humming a cheerful tune as I'm on the phone explaining to my wife how I lost our entire life savings. In the end, his mathematical calculations, ability to read opponents, and knowledge of poker strategy overwhelm my meager skill.
Beane is like the professional poker player. Except he's not playing alone. He's got an entire team of experts in his ear buds. You and I can win a hand here or there but in the long run, the expertise and resources of the pros will win out.
It's fun to second-guess and argue about picks but I'm confident that if Beane's picks were put against the average fan's or sportswriter's (picking in the same spots), Beane would come out ahead. It's only realism to acknowledge that the probability of Beane being right on any given pick is greater than mine. So, yeah, I'm concerned about Coleman's lack of speed and the shortcomings evident in other players we drafted. But I'm keeping an open mind until I see them play in a Bills uni.
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On 5/3/2024 at 7:27 AM, Logic said:
Thanks.
I always love the "comments from league execs and coaches" articles. They're awesome.
Unfortunately, the comments about Coleman and Worthy match my own feelings. And the statement "there is now a big difference in the amount of speed around Mahomes and the amount of speed around Josh Allen". Yep. Not great, Bob.Do "execs and coaches" include the Dolphins comptroller? The Dallas strength and conditioning coach? Seattle's scout for the Pacific Northwest?
I like the idea of Sando soliciting opinions from subject matter experts. I just wish I knew who the sources were. I don't really care what San Francisco's DC, for example, thinks about Coleman because I doubt if he knows more about him than Kiper. Or the folks on TBD, for that matter.
Does Sando tell us any more about his sources so we can have some sense of the quality of their opinions? If they're all GMs, assistant GMs, and national scouts, their evaluations would be valuable. Otherwise, I question their worthiness.
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8 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
Your post isn't specific to Beane in particular. It's defense of pretty much every NFL front office for the past few decades.
With that in mind, I'd like to take a trip down memory lane, to the 2006 draft. Marv Levy was the Bills' GM, Dick Jauron was the head coach. Levy/Jauron used the 8th overall pick to draft Donte Whitner, SS. Then, they traded back up into the first round, to take John McCargo, DT. Nick Mangold, C, was drafted one pick later.
A number of fans decried these picks. Many wanted the 8th overall pick to be used on Ngata, a defensive lineman. I personally wanted the Bills to take Jay Cutler, QB. Many, including myself, wanted the Bills to take Mangold.
Whitner was not a bad player, but he never came anywhere close to living up to his lofty draft position. Ngata had a great career, and was much better than Whitner. Cutler played well for the Broncos for a number of years. When they finally traded him away, they received 2 first round picks, Kyle Orton, and some other stuff. That's two more first round picks, one more Kyle Orton, and one more instance of other stuff than the Bills received for the departure of Whitner. Whitner went first-contract-and-out. McCargo was a bust, and Mangold was the NFL's best center for a long number of years. The Bills made do with a backup caliber center, in the form of Melvin Fowler.
In the late '70s, during the middle of a game, Notre Dame benched their starting QB. They put in a backup instead. The crowd started cheering. "What is going on?" asked a reporter from the opposing team. "We just put Joe Montana in the game," a Notre Dame reporter replied. "Now you guys are going to lose." The fans recognized what Notre Dame had in Joe Montana before the coaching staff did.
Excessive knowledge is not a substitute for insight. Sometimes, the fans are right, and coaches or front offices are wrong. Beane is a better GM than Levy/Jauron, and he's not going to do anything as boneheaded as drafting Donte Whitner 8th overall. But even Beane can make avoidable mistakes. If or when a GM or coach makes an avoidable mistake, it will often be pointed out by at least some fans. To broadly label all fan criticisms "Debi from Depew" demonstrates a lack of knowledge of the last 20 years of this team's history.
I respectfully disagree.
As for my post being a defense of all GMs. There's an element of truth to this. But I specifically mentioned Matt Millen. I've listened to Millen talk. The guy is bright and knows far more about players than the average fan. He still sucked as a GM because the average fan isn't the measuring stick. As a GM, he was up against a lot of other talented GMs with good scouts beneath them. He failed against that level of competition.
Drafting is a combination of subjective evaluation and predictive science that is inevitably imperfect. Every GM will have a Donte Whitner on their resume. But the probability of a GM getting a draft pick right is far greater than a fan getting a draft pick right because of all the hours or research an NFL team puts into the process. We simply don't have the resources to do the same level of due diligence.
The fact that some fans decried the Whitner pick proves nothing about probability. It's anecdotal. Jeane Dixon predicted Kennedy's assassination. That doesn't mean she was prescient. She also predicted that WWIII would begin in 1958 and made a lot of other poor predictions. But people focused on the big one she reportedly got right. A mathematician called this the "Jeanne Dixon Effect." Fans are the same way. They focus on the random predictions they get right. That doesn't mean they have "insight."
I demonstrate a lack of knowledge of the past 20 years of Bills football??? I'm not sure why you want to personally attack me that way. I've watched nearly every Bills game for the past 20++ years. But that's irrelevant. The bigger point is Beane and his staff have a track record of success. It's not a perfect track record. As Tom Brady recently reminded us, there are no rings. But since Beane's arrival, the Bills are one of the winningest teams in the league. Debi does not a similar track record. So, yeah, I trust Beane more than Debi from Depew. When Debi demonstrates the ability to put together a team that perennially reaches the NFL playoffs, that's when I'll listen.
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Maybe I'm a homer but I have a bunch of positive thoughts on the WR group and our upcoming aerial attack...
First of all, if the OL protects Josh, he's going to make plays regardless. This OL just might turn out to be our best yet since Josh's arrival.
Secondly, these receivers aren't elite level NFLers but they're not high school kids either. If Brady is as smart and creative as some think he is, he'll scheme them open.
Third, the analytics on the guys we lost weren't good. Josh's passer rating when throwing to Diggs and Davis was low. It was much higher when throwing to Kincaid and Shakir. Additionally, both Diggs and Davis ranked in the bottom half of the league in separation according to one chart I saw. My own observations don't incline me to disagree.
Finally, we have 11 wide receivers on the roster. 11! Maybe we have 11 scrubs, but I don't think so. Shakir and Samuel are both proven, semi-proven guys. Claypool has demonstrated in the past that he has legit NFL talent. If he pulls his head out of his butt, he'll be a contributor. Beane and Allen both like Coleman. Hamler has speed, as does Isabella. Etc. Maybe all 11 have some chance of being a good, if not great, contributor. And we don't need all 11 to be non-scrubs, just 4 of them if we can stay healthy.
Let me remind my mafia bros and sisses that we also have one of the better TE duos in the league.
A lot depends on Brady. But if he proves to be a good OC, we just may see more receivers running open this year than we did last season. Not fewer. -
1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:
But it is not the current cap allocated $'s on any year that causes concern. Dawkins did an extension and is coming in cheap this year.
McGovern and Edwards are currently fixed, and Brown has not extended yet. Add in the rookie C (who hopefully ends up starting soon) and Beane
is putting "resources" in the position.
The Bills are reaping some cap benefit this season. But they have to look forward to when Brown signs and McGovern in his last
contract year in 2025. Let alone trying to lock up Torrence at the end of 2025 (or 2026).
This is what I mean by not looking at a snapshot of the spending, it's way too fluid looking forward.
Which is why positional group cap allocation will always be an ideal. And why some GM's suck. With so much fluidity, not to mention uncertainty, it's challenging to build and sustain a good roster.
Beane moves since he came onboard have certainly created a better roster, though not a championship one. And now we find ourselves in 2024 in a bit of cap hell because of contract decisions made years ago. But, on the whole, I appreciate what he's carefully attempting to do this year to keep us competitive in the short-term while managing the long-term.
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None of the guys listed are inspiring. Either Beane makes a trade (which I don't like because of the costs involved) or he goes with what we what we have now (which I don't like because it's just not good enough).
It seems I'm fated to be unhappy.
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14 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
No doubt teams keep an eye on positional spending and rate it to worth of position but it's a fluid situation.
SF has a positional cap of less than $5M for QB this season.
They also have the highest cap hit for DL in the league with $76M.
SF's situation allows them to do that.
Allocating cap dollars vs positions is constantly changing on all teams as their situations change.
The "Beane counters" on the Bills are not just looking at the cap this year but years down the road.
Currently the Bills are #29th in OL spending. That is going to change a lot in the next 2 years.
It helps that Torrence is on a rookie contract but the fact that Bills are 29th in OL spending is concerning to me.
The Bills invest heavily in the body of Josh Allen but they don't invest in a bodyguard.
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Some GMs, I'm told, have cap allocation charts. They examine the value of each position group and allocate each group a different percentage of the cap.
It's not a hard budget - more of an ideal that's very situationally dependent. For example, if your QB is on a rookie contract, you can temporarily allocate more to other position groups.
If Beane has an allocation chart, it would be interesting to see how much he allocates to each position.
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I don't collect autographs. Football is great to watch but players are just people. Their autographs would mean nothing to me.
Then again, if a Brady autograph is worth selling, I'd be happy to have one.
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5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
You kinda argued against your own logic.
Moulds was in combat/playoffs his first few seasons but then spent 6 seasons in the peaceful drought. Does he not count as a combat veteran?
My position is more emotional than logical. Moulds played a lot of good ball for us during the drought. He may be the best player of the Early Drought Period. I want to give him credit.
Similarly, even though Kyle Williams did finally experience a playoff game, I give him credit for being a drought veteran.
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1 hour ago, yall said:
Coming from a place of complete ignorance, I have to ask (I'm guessing given your name and profile pic that you're in the know...) how cold does it get down there? Are winter coats something of a scarcity?
I am continually surprised by how many North Face, etc., jackets you see in sunny southern places. When it's warm most of the year, 40 or 50 degrees can seem cold.
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4 hours ago, Pete said:
Eric Moulds
Ted Washington
I'm not sure Washington would be my second choice, but Moulds would be my first.
I once went to war as a soldier where folks tried to kill me, but I've spent most of my life in peaceful places. Do I not count as a combat veteran? Moulds spent six good years of his career in the drought. As far as I'm concerned, he's a drought veteran.
By the same logic, sort of, I eliminated TO from consideration. Moulds fought against the drought with something like 500 receptions in drought years. TO was more like a war correspondent just passing through with something like 50 receptions.
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Yeah, this is great. It's a small charity. They were thrilled when the mafia had initially donated only $3,500.
They've tweeted out their appreciation...
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5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:
My worst memory of Claypool is this call. Right call, but I hate the rule and the play cost the Bills the game:
Claypool had a nice sideline grab in this game. Unfortunately.
11 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:Folks who tired of the Diggs drama, wait 'til you get a load of Claypool🤣 At least he won't make cryptic tweets, he'll just come right out and throw his team under the bus to the press. A complete 180 from the most recent draft philosophy of locker room leaders.
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Beane is looking for the good in people and trying to fill up the WR room with inexpensive guys who will compete, hoping one (or more) of them will surprise.
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6 hours ago, Ben said:
Worth a shot right? Guys got all the talent in the world but has been immature. Maybe he's grown up some and been humbled?
The CBS article reporting the trade said, "there is a talented player somewhere inside Claypool."
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Back when men were men...
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22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
Frankly, I think you need to have a little faith in Beane and McDermott. I hear all of what you say, and I saw Bado's language that you quoted. I think your fears are unfounded.
McDermott doesn't put guys on the field for extended plays if they can't do what they're expected to do. They will move Coleman along at the pace that is appropriate for him.
I don't know Xs and Os, but I think you're overly concerned about him getting off the line of scrimmage. First, in his first snaps in the regular season, the coaches are going to put him in position to get easy releases, however they do it. They're going to put him in positions where he can succeed. In other words, I am confident they understand the "path to success" idea, and they will be mindful of that. In other words, I don't think Bado's correct (surprise, surprise) that the Bills will throw him out there because they need a #1 receiver. He'll play as he's ready to play.
I'm not ready to assume that Coleman will not have a major role early in the season. He may grow into that role faster than we think. But on the assumption that he simply isn't ready to carry a big load, then I can't tell you who the starting group will be. I think Beane's not done working on the receiver room, but if he is, it's because they're confident they can get it done in the front half of the season while they're waiting for Coleman to get up to speed.
Personally, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Coleman by game six, if not earlier. I think they'll find enough ways for him to succeed that he'll start seeing the field regularly, and once that happens, he'll start making plays that get the attention of the defenses.
I was just looking at his college stats. Maybe he benefitted from step down in competition at Florida State, but 11 receiving touchdowns in 50 catches is eye-opening, as is #3 nationally in punt returns. In his early snaps, I think the Bills are going to be looking for opportunities where he can get open with some room to run after the catch.
I'm not worried. Sure, he could flop, but I don't think so.
I once listened to an interview with a scout. He attributed the high miss rate during the draft to the fact that scouting is a predictive science/art. He explained that very, very few college players are good enough to play in the NFL. He did mention some difference among positions groups but, generally speaking, nearly all college players have to get better before they'll be good pros.
A scout has to predict who's going to get stronger, bigger, and faster. Who's going to devote themselves to the weight room and playbook. Who's going to have the maturity and discipline to sign a huge contract, stay hungry, and work every day. These predictions include physical, emotional, and psychological factors. There's a lot of (informed) guesswork going on.
None of us can know how much Coleman will grow as a player (there are some natural/genetic limits involved) nor how fast his growth will happen. That's why I take the guesswork of fans and media pundits with a grain of salt. He seems like the kind of guy who will put in the work so that's a plus. And Beane and his staff, with all their due diligence, thought him worthy of our first pick so that's encouraging to me, too. But there's no certainty here. All we can do know is hope.
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On 4/30/2024 at 9:45 AM, Buffalo03 said:
This dude is getting right by 300 pound dudes lol
Interesting highlights. I think his college tape is more impressive than Groot's.
However, when you look at the size differential (Solomon vs. OT), he kind of looks like a blitzing CB up against an offensive lineman. Yet he gets by those guys with a variety of moves. I wonder how well his skills will translate to the NFL at his size.
(Yeah, I know he's only a few pounds lighter than Von. But, to me, he looks small for an edge. Maybe I'm wrong?)
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I'm an old far and not up on current lingo so let me ask... What does going "banco" mean?
Banco can mean bank or bench in Spanish. Not sure if either meaning fits here.
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96 starts in his career. Brings a lot of experience.
Ran a 4.38 40 at the combine 8 years ago. Wonder how much of that speed he still possesses?
PFF rated him as the 7th best LB in the league back in 2021 but only graded him a 66.3 last season in limited action as a backup.
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Thoughts about wideout speed.
Samuel has speed. While not routinely used as a deep threat, his speed combined with Josh's arm will force defenses to respect the deep ball.Shakir isn't slow.
Gabe was considered a deep threat despite having an average-ish 40 time. Sometimes 40 times don't tell the whole story. While a bit slower than Gabe (according to GPS tracking), Coleman might find ways to get open deep occasionally.
With so many teams playing two-high shells and otherwise trying to neuter Josh's arm advantage, we need to get proficient at the short and midrange game. Kincaid is helping there. Coleman will too.
If Brady's a good OC, he should be able to scheme up a diverse and productive aerial attack. Though, I admit, it would be fun to have a young Lee Evans on this roster too to make teams truly afraid of the long ball.
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3 hours ago, Augie said:
Am I the only one who thinks the derogatory name calling is childish?
EDIT: It was not meant just for you, @drummernut74, it’s pretty common. I wasn’t trying to single you out, but sorry if it felt that way.
Augie, I'm with you 100%. I've called it out in other threads and am happy to see you call it out here.
IMHO, the Bills Mafia should be a Band of Brothers who support each other and support the team. Of course, that doesn't mean we respond to everything with Pollyanna happy talk. We're going to be upset when players, coaches, personnel guys, and refs make mistakes. And we'll argue with other fans with different opinions. But - hopefully - all this remains respectful.
There's enough sh*t coming our way as it is (e.g. old age, disease, IRS notices, reality tv, death). We don't need to sh*t on each other, too.
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It's not a full rebuild but it is a heavy reset year.
But I don't think it'll be a bad one when I think about the key players we've lost. For example, Diggs wasn't very productive in the 2nd half of the season. While Davis gave us a couple of very memorable games during his time here, in most games he was just ordinary. Tre hardly played the past two years. Hyde and Poyer, a fantastic duo in their prime, were starting to become injury prone and aging out. We made our run last season without major contributions from these guys. So why not another run this year?
There are three things I'll be watching closely: (1) The rookie class. Can they - especially Coleman - contribute this year? (2) Brady. Can he scheme a high-powered offense? (3) Injuries. Can we enter the playoffs reasonably healthy for once?
If we have positive answers for these three questions, I think we'll be able to challenge in the playoffs this season.
And we should be even better in 2025 with more cap space to play with if Beane plays his cards right.
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Draft Analysis - We're All Debi from Depew
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by hondo in seattle
Shaw, I always value your opinion and you make a good point here.
But imagine this scenario. Take the 20 best posters from TBD. Pay them enough so they quit their jobs and study football full time all year long. Send them to scouting seminars with America's best personnel guys. Give them access to an analytics department to provide them with good predictive data. Introduce them to, and give them the contact information for, 100 or so college coaches. Show them tape of every D1 college football game. Let them attend the combine. Have them interview players. If they want to fully vet a player, allow them to hire PIs. Give them an annual budget of $3 million or so to make all this happen. And with all that, you have the Bills personnel department.
But you are right about the law of diminishing returns. And someone else brought up the idea of collective intelligence. Maybe no one Bills fan can draft better than Beane and his team. But maybe if we put together a team of the 500 smartest Bills draftniks, they could outperform Beane and his staff. I'm open minded to that idea.
I just want and hope others to remain open-minded and humble. Some of the picks will turn out better (or worse) than we think.