hondo in seattle
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Posts posted by hondo in seattle
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2 hours ago, Pete said:
we still are in need of burner who can line up outside. I know nothing about the dude, but im willing to bet its a speed guy
It's a reasonable bet I had read he ran a 4.5. Not speedy.
Edit: I just looked it up. Some sources say he ran a 4.50 at his pro day at SE Missouri State in 2020. Other sources say he ran a 4.46. In either case, not what I'd call a speed guy. Not sure what this guy thinks he offers that the Bills don't already have but I wish him the best.
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With all the good/decent receivers the Bills have, this guy has no shot of making the 53 and little chance of landing on the PS. I wonder why he would sign with us.
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I lived through that era once. Not sure why I'd want to relive it.
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21 hours ago, dock581 said:
What’s the story with Wande Owens featured in the BN today? ( paywall can’t read)
From AI...
Athletic Profile
Height/Weight: 5'11", 210–212 lbs.
Noted for his athleticism, Owens posted a 9.59 Relative Athletic Score (RAS) out of 10, ranking 51st out of 1,207 free safeties from 1987–2025.
Pro Day highlights: 4.58-second 40-yard dash, 4.05-second short shuttle, 43-inch vertical, 11-foot-3 broad jump.
Wande Owens is regarded as a high-character, high-effort player whose leadership and on-field production have made him a standout at both the Ivy League and FCS levels. The Buffalo Bills are acquiring a versatile defender with proven ability and strong intangibles.
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1975 was a great year.
OJ had been running all over the place since his breakout year in 1972. But in 1973, when OJ rushed for over 2,000 yards, Joe Ferguson threw less than 1,000 yards despite starting every game. Fergie's job was to hand off the ball. Our offense was OJ, all day, all the time.But in 1975, Fergie started coming into his own and led the NFL in TD passes while OJ led in both rushing yards and TDs.
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15 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:
His biggest flaw is that he doesn’t know what he’s doing out there. He’s out of position leaving corners on islands. He was by far the weakest link on our defense last year and it wasn’t close
Funny, I have a very different opinion. It seems to me Hamlin understands the scheme and knows where he needs to be. But he just doesn't have the athleticism to excel.
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With 32 teams, the average NFL teams have a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The best teams have a more-or-less 10% chance. The Bills are one of those teams again this year.
Sadly, the Chiefs defy the odds with their improbable combination of luck, a good GM, good offensive head coach, good defensive coordinator, and HOF QB.
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56 minutes ago, DCofNC said:
Why is everyone all excited about a guy that was a bottom of the barrel signing? He’s the Andy Isabella of Safeties. If he proves me wrong, great. If he gets cut for Hamlin, don’t be shocked.
The optimistic and cheerful folks get excited by any signing. The rest of us are happy when a weak position group gets some depth. Forrester played reasonably well when fully healthy. He won't make us forget Hyde or Poyer but he does make a weak group a little less weak.
When you're close to being a SB contender, any little improvement is a cause for excitement, IMHO.
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4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
Camp body, but still weird to me to bring in an 8th pure DT.
The fact that Beane has done basically nothing to increase competition at S is the most perplexing non-move of the offseason to me. I 100% agree with the approach to prioritize the front 4, but I would have brought in a couple UDFAs and brought in some cheap options there that have real potential.Maybe you have a good point. But right now, we have 4, maybe 5, high-quality backups (Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, Forrest, Hancock?).
We lack quality starters, and they aren't going to be found in the garbage bin of UDFAs.
2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
He plays the penetrating style of defense the Bills want. He sacks Drake Maye and Shaduer in the video and stops Maye on Qb sneak. Who knows?You don't often see DTs run fake punts!
Not your typical camp body.
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Bledsoe played one good half-season with us. If Josh got hurt, Bledsoe would be the guy I'd want to come in - assuming he played at the same level as the first 8 or 9 games of 2002.
But as a backup, I'd want Fitz. He's a great teammate. He'd be super supportive of Josh and the entire team. He's also smart. In the QB room, and on the sidelines, he'd have some great conversations with Josh that would help elevate Josh's game.
And if Fitz had to come in, he'd execute the game plan and give us a chance to win.-
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13 hours ago, Jimmy Harris 69 said:
If it wasn’t me talking, I’d say Joe Brady has showed zero creativity or willingness to scheme flat ass downfield in 24’. Conversely Dawson Knox was a downfield threat quite often last year. So what’s going on at OBD? Was Kincaid too injured to run long routes or did he lose the trust of Brady and Allen?
Here's your answer from the lips of Dawson Knox...
"The dude's been playing on a torn PCL in one leg and then his other knee - he doesn't even know what's wrong with it because he hasn't had it scanned yet, but it's got so much fluid in it. Like, it's insane what he has played through... the selfless nature it takes to be able to put your body on the line for your team even when you got a torn PCL in one knee and the other knee don't even know what's wrong with it, but it's messed up too..."
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Setting aside the pros and cons of signing him, do we really need another Gabe Davis thread?
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I'm not entirely sure who our starters will be, but we'll have excellent backups (#4, #5, and maybe #6).
I still think Brady can get better at how he schemes a downfield passing attack. In any case, we scored a lot of points last year despite our shortcomings. We should again this year.
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This is a hard exercise because we have to read Brady's mind and guess how he'll use these guys. And I know from how often I disappoint my wife, I'm a terrible mind reader. But here goes...
1. Shakir
2. Palmer
3. Moore
4. Kincaid
5. Coleman
6. Knox
7. Samuel
As I am so often with my wife, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong with this.-
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Am I suffering from some kind of bias when I remember Gabe this way (see below)?
- Hard worker, good dude in the locker room, willing blocker.
- Not on the same page as Josh, which suggests Gabe made bad decisions on choice routes.
- Possesses neither great moves nor speed. When he got open deep, it was often because a DB made a mistake (sometimes because Josh was running around improvising, looking like he was about to get sacked).
- Opposing DBs said Gabe was easy to cover because he ran a limited route tree.
I guess there'd be no harm in bringing him back for the vet minimum. Competition is never a bad thing, but I wouldn't be any kind of excited.
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2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
I think turnover differential does have some randomness to it—like weird bounces, DB's dropping or not dropping possible easy picks and tipped passes—but the reason the Bills were so good in that category is because, while there was certainly some luck involved, Josh Allen really did cut down on his turnovers.
In 2022 and 2023, as dynamic as he was, Josh had some turnover-prone games. But in 2024, the Bills made things easier for him, and he forced the ball less.
As for the defense, while it definitely had its flaws, it was also very opportunistic. And while every defense aims to create turnovers, I think the Bills defense sometimes played with an awareness that they had to generate a few takeaways—especially since they were getting gashed at times by better offenses.
Also, McDermott’s defense tends to turn average or below-average quarterbacks into turnover-prone players, so that factors in too.
Overall, while I do expect some regression in turnover differential, if I were a betting man, I’d still say the Bills finish in the top 10 in that margin.
I hope you're right.
I remember when Jairus Byrd had 9 picks in his rookie year. Some Bills fans thought he was an emerging superstar with a remarkable nose for the ball. I thought he was lucky - often in the wrong place but coming up with a pick anyway because of a funky deflection. Byrd only averaged 2 picks per year for the rest of his career. Sometimes TOs are like that.
Recent history... The Bills led the league in TO differential last year. The 2023 leader, the Ravens, finished in the top five again in 2024. The 49ers led the league in 2022 but only finished +0 the following year. I hope we follow Baltimore's example, not San Francisco's.
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1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:
McDermott is a defensive minded coach. I don't think that Beane had the authority to pick an wide receiver in the first round without the approval/consent of McDermott. I do believe that Beane has the power to make trades in order to get players that McDermott and the staff want, but I do not think that he has the final say.
So, we disagree but I appreciate the dialogue.
Yeah, Bill, we disagree because I do believe Beane has the final say but neither one of us is in a position to prove our case. At least, I'm not. It would be cool, though, if we could embed ourselves into OBD a week before the draft, sit in all the meetings, and hang out in the war room when the picks are made. Maybe when I win the lottery, I'll buy a big enough stake in the Bills that Terry allows us both inside the building.
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10 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:
OK but if the above is indeed true, shouldn't McDermott shoulder some of the blame for any draft blunders? I see post after post singling out Beane, and Beane certainly doesn't appear to be making these picks in a vacuum. I have never worked in a place where more than one person had "final" say. Is it even possible?
As I have previously stated, my opinion of McDermott as a coach has improved. That said, most of our early draft picks look to have his signature on it, if trading away Mahomes to the Chiefs and selecting a first round corner (before the arrival of Beane) is to be used as evidence, or at the very least suspicion of this.
I wonder why you see those signatures when I don't see them at all.
I think Beane's telling the truth when he says he takes input from McD and his coaches, as well as his own scouts, and then makes the picks based on the totality of that information. Which sounds very sensible.The final decision - and accountability - lies with Beane.
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1 hour ago, Low Positive said:
They could be worse. We got a number of lucky bounces and other bits of good fortune to win some close ones. Remember when Zuerlein missed a 32 and 43 yard FG and the BIlls beat the Jets 23-20? And then it took a 61-yard FG to beat the Fins two week later. Both of those games could have gone the other way. Most NFL games come down to a play or two. This past year we made those plays more often than not, at least until the AFCCG.
Sadly, you're right. Last season we were +24 in turnover differential. But of the various stats that contribute to winning seasons, various football observers have concluded that TO margin is perhaps the most variable from year to year.
To give an example, one analyst wrote: "We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year."
In short, we can't count on getting wins by winning the TO battle again this year.
footballfanspot.com/2021/08/12/which-stats-are-most-predictable-and-predictive/
harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/
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Unless Josh gets hurt, I don't think we'll be worse than last season.
Depending on the performance of the FAs and draft picks, and there are question marks around all of them, we might be better.I'm hoping Brady continues to improve as an OC, particularly in scheming a downfield passing attack.
In other words, I have no special intuition or expectation for this season, but - as always - I hope for the miracle.
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2 hours ago, finn said:
Yet Beane shrugs off the need for a top WR by pointing out that Brady didn't have one, ignoring his having Edelman and a HOF tight end.
Beane's argument isn't that simple.
He's also mentioned that we scored 30 points in 8 consecutive games and were the highest scoring team in the NFL last season if you include the playoffs. The offense was productive even without an elite receiver so maybe that wasn't our biggest need.
And he's pointed out, reasonably enough, that you can have All Pros everywhere. The cap doesn't allow that.I believe that if you have a unicorn QB, you ought to prioritize two things: the OL and your stable of WRs. I don't think Beane's done that. It seems we either have a good OL, or a good group of WRs, but never both at the same time. Still, there are rational arguments you can make for his approach.
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On 5/2/2025 at 11:44 AM, boater said:
I'm still grieving Larry Felser.
I still remember when Larry was the old, grizzled, trusted vet and Mark Gaughan was the youngster out to prove himself.
The years fly by.
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6 hours ago, Logic said:
If he winds up being Chris Kelsay/Ryan Denney, I'll be happy. That is, an edge setting, run stopping defensive end who can pitch in some pass rush in spurts and add value to the defensive line rotation.
And before anyone waves away my invocation of those two names: One played 10 years in the NFL, the other played 9. That's a good career.
Jackson's a third round pick, and usually edge rushers that fall to the third round -- great DL draft or not -- don't turn into premium pass rushers. Obviously, it's not a guarantee, and I'll be rooting for him to exceed expectations and ball out for Buffalo. But if he can work into the rotation, add some juice, and set the edge, I'll consider him a worthwhile 3rd round pick.
Then again, about 8.8% of 3rd round draft picks become All Pros (according to a historical review once done by Forbes). As a fan, I always hope.
www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/
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I know I'm a little late to the party on Moore but he isn't your normal JAG. He's got top 10% speed (3 cone drill, 20-yard shuttle, 40-yard dash) in a bottom 10% frame (height, weight, wingspan).
He's probably not the kind of guy you want out there every play and it's unlikely that's what we got him for. If used correctly, he does seem like he could be a nice complementary piece.
I'd rather have a big-bodied fast guy who can run the entire route tree but a FA like that would be out of our price range. Beggars can't be choosers.
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Bills signed WR Kristian Wilkerson
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by hondo in seattle
I know the feeling.
Let's hope his stockboy-football life turns out more like Kurt Warner's than mine.