hondo in seattle
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Posts posted by hondo in seattle
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I voted "yes" simply because I trust Beane (he's an above-average GM) and I didn't love the WRs available based on the little I saw and read.
I'm really curious to see what he's going to do today, though. And I'd love to hear his reasoning.
(I would have selected "wait and see" if Gugs included that).
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7 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:
The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01.
That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ?
Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first?
What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?
Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?
The draft is like gambling. You play the probabilities and hope the cards come up right.
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30 minutes ago, Yantha said:
I'm serious when I say I hope we go with FS Cooper DeJean. Read on before the barf emoji.... lol
Looking at the board, he's clearly the BPA at a position of need. What a slip. He is Eric Weddle 2.0, and we lost both our star safeties without properly replacing them.... FS is a very high need.
Hoping to TRADE UP from 60 to grab one of the following WRs:
Adonai Mitchell
Ja'Lynn Polk
Failing that, there are plenty of options to fill the role we need:
Jalen McMillan
Jermaine Burton
Brenden Rice (son of Rice... I mean c'mon...)
Javon Baker
Luke McCaffrey (field stretcher)
DO
NOT
PANIC
I once listened to an interview with a successful GM - I think it was Ron Wolf. He said that he considered a draft decent if he got one Pro Bowler out of it and it didn't matter if the guy came from the 4th round and the 1st rounder was a bust. A really good draft netted him two Pro Bowlers. That's how he rated his drafts.
He explained that most players fill roles (i.e., they're JAGS). To win a SB, you needed players who were difference-makers.
He said that it's better to get a difference-maker at a position you may not need than a role-player at a position where you do have a need.
I rarely watch college football and am no talent scout. But if DeJean is truly a difference-maker when the WRs left are mediocre role-players, then I'm all for the pick.
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13 hours ago, PBF81 said:
I was more thinking about an ability to relate to younger players.
Either way, his tenure with NJ & Dallas over the past 8 seasons hasn't been particularly impressive.
I also have reservations about Ruff and maybe you're right that he'll have problems relating to younger players.
But, again, thinking of Andy Reid... Reid was rated A+ by his players in the NFLPA survey after this past season - best in the NFL. And he relates well enough with his players to win championships.
If Ruff fails, I don't think it'll be because of his age.
nflpa.com/kansas-city-chiefs-report-card-2024
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1 hour ago, iccrewman112 said:
The trade with Carolina is a no brainer for many reasons.
1. You confirm with Carolina the player they are moving up to select is not the player you want. If it is then you don’t make the trade.
2. you move up about 60 spots from late 6th to high 5th. That is the 125 ranked player vs the 185.3. the newly acquired high 5th rounder is a much more valuable trade chip to improve 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders.
4. The first pick in the 2nd round is often a highly traded pick as teams reevaluate their boards (since moving to the 3 day format), giving more trade down opportunities.
This was a bad trade for Carolina. The fact we were willing to make the trade pretty much tells them we didn't want Legette. If we wanted him, we would have made the pick and not traded it away.
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On 4/24/2024 at 10:12 AM, PBF81 said:
Dude's 64, isn't that a concern for anyone? Is there an older coach in the NHL?
I don't follow hockey, but that's pretty old it seems.Also, 8 seasons with the Stars and Devils, only three playoff appearances, losing in the first round once, in the second round the other two times.
More asking than commenting, I know little about hockey, but that alone seems to contradict many of the supportive statements herein.
As someone who's 65 and - arguably - physically fit and mentally sharp, no I'm not concerned that Ruff's 64. Why should I be?
Andy Reid is 66. Age doesn't seem to interfere with his ability to coach a team to a championship.
Hopefully things aren't so bad with the Sabres that we need Ruff to suit up again.
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9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Ask any CB they’ll tell you. They want the big guys over the small guys.
It depends. Let's say you're a CB playing press coverage in a zone defense. Jamming a smaller, quick guy is easy if you can get your hands on him. You'll push him back and disrupt his route. But once he gets away, he's gone - unless of course you're also very quick. In any case, in zone you probably have a safety backing you up.
And let's say you're a smallish DB going against a 6'4" receiver with good hands, a big catch radius, and speed. And he's a talented route-runner. He's going to be hard to defend in any defense.
I don't think you can say big receivers are either better or worse than small quick guys. It depends on the receiver, defender, and the defensive play-call.
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When he was in college, I hoped he'd have a good career just because I liked his name.
Amon and Ra are both Egyptian gods. But 'Saint' is a Christian concept. His parents seem ecumenical... or very confused.
His brothers are named "Osiris" and "Equanimeous." Fun family.
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Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think having Knox and Kincaid as our two 'ends' is a winning formula. Not enough speed to threaten defenses vertically. And what if one gets hurt?
TEs are nice. But a team needs a diversity of weapons to challenge a good NFL defense. Let me daydream for a moment. Imagine we had our current TEs and wideouts and added Eric Moulds and Lee Evans to the mix. That would make for a dynamic aerial attack. We need to move more in that direction.
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On 4/22/2024 at 6:34 AM, GunnerBill said:
I hate it. I have a 5th round grade on Kneeland. He sucks.
Pro Football News rates him a bit better...
"Kneeland grades out as a fringe top-100 prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. He could sneak into Day 2 or be a priority prospect on Day 3. Either way, he’s a quality addition in the middle rounds, with an intriguing mix of high-floor and high-ceiling tools."
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58 minutes ago, Dr. K said:
Ruff's record with the Dallas Stars was 165-122-41. His record with the Devils was 128-125-28.
Under him, two years ago New Jersey had its best points total ever, going 52-22-8.
In his eight seasons with other teams since he left the Sabres, he made the playoff three times.
My bad... I was looking at his playoff records. Feel somewhat better now.
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On 4/22/2024 at 6:21 AM, PBF81 said:
Aren't most if not all teams looking for match-up problems for their WRs. That's the most effective way to have a highly effective passing game.
Yeah, that quote was a nothing burger if we're using it to try to predict the draft. Every HC and OC wants receivers who present matchup problems.The comment told us nothing about the future, but it might have told us something about the past. I'm guessing McD didn't think we gave opponents enough matchup problems last year. I saw some analytics that showed both Davis and Diggs were below the NFL average in separation.
I'm 65 but can still catch a football. If there were teams that didn't care about matchup problems and my 6-minute 40 time, I'd have a shot!
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I love coaching people in my day job. And, as a former combat leader, I love strategy and tactics. If I had 10 lives to live, I'd spend on of them as a football coach.
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I don’t think our opening day roster will be as good as last season’s. But I think McD is a solid coach and Josh is an exceptional QB. Brady is my biggest worry. But if we’re healthy at the end of the season, we can make a run.
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These guys are all either fast-but-small or big-but-slow. Not encouraging.
Then again, Steve Largent was neither big nor fast and still did okay in the NFL.
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1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:
A week before the draft, don't believe anything.
Generally speaking, you're right. But it doesn't mean Beane is lying. Clearly, he's not going to share his board with the media. But it seems like he's decided there's no harm in talking about generalities in regard to his draft philosophy this year. He was sufficiently vague that he didn't give any other teams an advantage.
We were left with some hints about what he won't do but very few about what he will do. He gave enough clues to get the mafia's cerebral juices flowing without giving away anything definitive. And my cerebral juices tell me Alpha is right and Beane's not moving into the top 10. If that's right, it's not a surprise given our lack of trade capital.
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1 hour ago, papazoid said:
Over the past 10 years only 35 percent of first round picks ended up making a Pro Bowl
35% of UDFAs don't make the Pro Bowl - not even close - so it sounds like scouts are doing a good job.
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On 4/12/2024 at 6:30 PM, TheCockSportif said:
During the machinations of OJ's criminal trial, I was dating a wildly inappropriate woman -- which tracks, because at the time I was also wildly inappropriate. Everybody hated everybody so there was parity.
I happened to snark on dinner night (one night, with her family) that OJ would have his charges reduced to a noisy muffler infraction, and a short time later, there we were. I was wrong in premise, but I was also right that literally zero would happen to him in that criminal trial.
The judge was an attention seeker, the lead detective an avowed racist, the assistant DA a (former?) stripper (that was real, right?), Kato, useless witnesses, a circus of a trial, a glove did not fit, and jeez, like so many others I came to understand that OJ had literally gotten away with not one, but two -- TWO! -- murders.
Also, I think OJ's less famous lawyer, Barry Sheck, convinced the juror that a lot of the forensic evidence wasn't credible.
And while some might dispute Sheck's forensic competency, let's remember he was performing for a juror that did not think police officers or forensic experts were particularly credible in the first place.
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The draft pool may be more shallow this year but solid starters will come out of every round.
Good GMs and scouts will find them. Hopefully Beane and his guys are looking at the right things.
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Obviously, I'm interested in seeing who the Bills do and don't draft. But I think Brady is the biggest wildcard when it comes to the production of our wideouts. If it turns out he's good at scheming guys open, something he did not prove last year, we'll be fine. If he's not, even drafting one of the better rookie's won't optimize Josh's potential.
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3 hours ago, Beck Water said:
I think you're both "on to" something here, and it's actually been my contention.
Many people like to fault McDermott or Frazier (usually McDermott to my eye) for the defense falling apart in the playoffs.
I see it differently. I see it as McDermott and Beane built a defense where "the whole is much greater than the sum of the parts". But, it had no true game-wreckers on defense. So if enough of the component parts were missing due to injury, or if one component makes a mistake - poor or mediocre teams will still be slowed enough to win. But the best offenses will drill into those weaknesses or individual miscues on any one play, and absolutely EXPLOIT them, and we have lacked the "freakazoid" defensive game changers to overcome that issue.
I don't entirely fault Beane for this. He tried to acquire game wreckers. Tre White was the first. Then Ed Oliver, who took a while to "get after it". He drafted Rousseau, who, to be fair, has a higher wAV than any other DL in that draft and within 5 sacks of Jaelen Phillips. He tried to double down with Basham, after using a 2nd round pick on his body-remodeling project in Epenesa the year before. When those 3 weren't "cutting the mustard" in 2021, he went out and made a big FA splash by signing Von Miller.
But Miller, and our 2017 1st round "freakazoid" Tre White, got injured and weren't the same for the next season. Then, just when Tre White looked like he might be coming back, injured again. Some Days You Da Windshield, Some Days You Da Bug.
There's some bad injury luck there. There are also some legit questions "did we grab the right guy?" (Ed Oliver over Jeffery Simmons, say? Epenesa over Greenard or Woonum? Kaiir Elam over Roger McCreary or Cam Taylor-Britt?)
It's the same thing with offense. We have Allen, we had Diggs, and then we had a bunch of "good" players who could win against most teams, but be taken out by the best defenses especially when the refs put away the laundry and say "let 'em play" in the playoffs.
But no GM is perfect or gets it all right, and some of the teams that are championship-caliber have had some good luck - having "Mr Irrelevant" turn out to be a capable NFL QB, for example; or having a 7th round RB turn out to be a fightin' dog of an RB.There seems to be an element of luck in the whole thing as well.
This is true. But so far, Groot seems to have an element of "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" in his makeup, and Spencer Brown doesn't seem to have quick enough feet.
Absolutely agree.
"The whole is greater than the sum of its parts..." That's exactly how I see McD's defense. I don't think he gets enough credit for our excellent regular season defensive performance over the years. He creates elite defenses with a paucity of elite players. That - and injuries - is why we don't excel in the playoffs. McD's magic fails when we lose too many one-on-one battles against elite players in the playoffs.
Somebody mentioned Poyer and Hyde as a freakazoid combo. I agree. I don't know if either was individually elite but, man, they played well together. I think a number of things contributed to that: their communication and teamwork, the fact they were interchangeable, their football IQ, and McD's defensive scheme.
Tre was freakazoid but drafted right before Beane came onboard as I recall. But Beane is trying. Diggs was a freak but expensive and possibly a distraction. Von should have been a freak but he was also expensive, and injuries have limited his impact.
We can't keep paying top dollar for game-changing players. We need to draft some. Beane did draft Allen but that was in 2018. I want Beane to be good enough to draft one freak each year. That would get us to the Super Bowl.
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4 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:
Other than Allen, we don't have one. Many people have kind of made this point that while we have an above average roster overall at almost every level, with many good players, we don't really have any true elite players, like game wrecker types, other than Allen.
100% agree. And I think that's been Beane's problem thus far.
He did pick Josh. And he builds good rosters with solid depth. But Josh is the only elite player on the roster. Beane needs to get us more game-changers in the draft because he hasn't left himself enough cap money to do it any other way.
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
Speaking as someone who does stuff like that, you're talking about he used a nickname to code one visit differently. It's an error, but sensibly speaking it doesn't invalidate the whole data set. Just add the two together in your minds.
Agreed and Thanks! to the OP.
Again, one of the most interesting things I found was to look at what players they were documented to show the most interest in previous years, vs. who they drafted.
Good catch. The Bills drafted just 1 of the 10 players they visited most with last season. The chart doesn't seem to be much of a clue.
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If he was innocent, which I sincerely doubt, it's a shame he was never exonerated. If he was guilty, it's a shame he was never appropriately punished.
I've seen lists of the NFL's top all-time RBs that didn't include OJ in the top five. At first blush, that's insane. But I get that his post-career crimes will always taint his career achievements - and rightly so.
But I also remember the divinely gifted athlete he was before his devilish acts. OJ played in the Golden Age of Running Backs when America's best athletes wanted to tote the ball and defenses were focused on stopping them. Yet in 1973, OJ rushed for 2,003 yards when the next best Golden Era RB only produced 1144 yards. OJ nearly doubled the back who would have worn the rushing crown that year if not for OJ. Tom Brady, the Golden Boy of the Passing Era, never achieved that kind of relative production. Not even close.
If not for his crimes, OJ would be in the GOAT conversation. Instead, he's a chapter of NFL history most would like to ignore and forget. It's sad for me because he was my first, and last, football idol.
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The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I agree we badly need a WR. But maybe Beane isn't enamored with the remaining WRs and thinks they're more Mack Hollins than Andre Reed. We can get a JAG later on in the draft, or cheaply in free agency, if that's what we're down to. I'd love to see Beane's board and how he's got guys rated. But I'd rather get a superstar safety or DL than a jag receiver if that's what's left.