chris heff
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Posts posted by chris heff
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14 hours ago, Beck Water said:
So for anyone curious, the receivers who have been in the top 20 the past 3 seasons are:
Tyreek Hill (Rd 5 pick 165); Justin Jefferson (Rd 1 pick 22); CeeDee Lamb (Rd 1 Pick 17); Keenan Allen (Rd 3 Pick 76); AJ Brown (Rd 2 Pick 51); Ja'Maar Chase (Rd 1 Pick 5); Stefan Diggs (Rd 5 Pick 146); DaVante Adams (Rd 2 Pick 53)
That's in order for Yards per Game 2023.
In the past, when a draft has been regarded as "deep" at a position, Beane has sometimes drafted that position in later rounds with the idea that "we can get a guy later on who can help us".
There were 16 WR drafted before Gabe Davis in 2020. Using pro.football.reference wAV as a metric (it's not perfect but it seems to be decent), 5 of them have contributed more than Davis: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr, and Tee Higgins. There were 18 WR drafted after Davis, one (Darnell Mooney) has been close to Davis in production. So basically he's contributed more than 11 WR taken before him in the 1st through 3rd rounds, and we didn't leave any obvious "gems" behind us.There were 20 WR drafted before Khalil Shakir in 2022. Again using AAV, 7 have contributed more and 1 equally to Shakir: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave in the first; Christian Watkins, George Pickens, and Alec Wilson (close to KS) in the 2nd, and Romeo Doubs in the 4th. Jahan Dodson is "same". So basically Shakir has contributed more than 2 WR and equal to another WR drafted in the 1st; more than 4 WR drafted in the 2nd; more than 6 WR drafted before him in the 3rd and 4th rounds. There were 7 WR drafted after him, none have contributed as much, so no obvious gems behind us.
I'm not pointing this out to argue for waiting to draft a WR, but to point out that there is that element of a "crap shoot" in the draft, where you know the probability is higher to draft a player who is really good and can contribute right away in the 1st round, but it's far from certainty.And maybe you need a little luck.
Which is why you take two early, it increases the odds.
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2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
I don’t think they need two WR’s as starters or heavy volume players. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook are 5 players that are going to be getting good targets while Hollins and Ty Johnson will be getting complementary targets.They do need one WR to have solid volume I don’t think they need two rookies to soak in all of the Diggs targets.
Samuel should take on Gabe’s targets while Shakir, Cook, Ty, Kincaid and Knox should have their targets increase in taking some of Diggs 160 targets.
I think you are going to need a rookie to take on 80-90 targets while the other 70-80 targets are disbursed to the other players. I think a second rookie would probably be there for depth and supplemental production. A second rookie 4th/5th on the depth chart probably is going to have 30-40 targets.
Or they take two for insurance, increase the odds of one being special.
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I have no idea.
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21 minutes ago, MDH said:
Other. It obviously depends on how the board looks but, in general, given how bunched up the WR are after the “Big 3” I’d like to see the Bills trade back somewhere in the 35-40 range, picking up a 3rd in the process then draft a WR there. Then, use one of the 4th round picks to move up in the 2nd and grab a WR again.
The Bills could conceivably end up with something like McConkey and Lagette.
It does depend how the board looks, they could take Mitchell at 28 and if McConkey falls move up for him. Somebody always falls, it’s going to be interesting.
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13 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
So you should want to win now. Go for the proven commodity!
Manning won with Harrison and Wayne. Young and Montana had Rice.
Brady and Mahommes had two of the three best tight ends in NFL history. Brady had two of the best slot WRs in NFL history in Edelman and Welker. People act like Brady and these other QBs did not have weapons. They played with some of the best players at their positions in NFL history. Maybe Kincaid is in that category. He certainly has started career well.
I do want to win now and if a trade happens for Jefferson I’ll be delighted. I’m just not sure that with a draft class as deep at WR that a trade is necessary. Manning with Harrison and Wayne only won one Superbowl, would I take one win? Sure. Young, Montana and Rice couldn’t happen in today’s NFL, salary cap didn’t start until 1994 and there was Plan B free agency. I think Brady made Edelman and Welker great. Joe Ferguson had OJ Simpson, JD Hill, Ahmad Rashad and Bob Chandler and never won anything. Josh Allen is elite, he needs solid skill players. That run at the end of last season was not because of a superstar WR. The production came from Shakir, Kincaid and Cook. Curtis Samuel is an interesting pick up, with an interesting skill set, he has played on bad teams with bad QBs. Get Josh another weapon or two, whether that be through trade or draft and they will win now.
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1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
1. Jefferson is a top 3 WR and a proven superstar. He's still young and has many years of superstar status
2. The draft is a lottery and there is no guarantee the two young players will be any good
3. I want to win now at all costs.
Other than Randy Moss, did Brady ever have a superstar receiver? Mahomes won last two Superbowls with no superstar receiver. Draft is a crapshoot, which is why I’d take two WR. I’ve been a fan since 1963, not many have suffered longer.
9 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:This is where I disagree. Beane made a power play by trading Diggs away and eating up all that cap space. He better deliver the goods and not come up empty handed. The pressure is on.
That’s another reason to double down on WRs in this draft.
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10 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:
I mean, this is a crazy heavy draft at WR, why take on all that money that comes with a Jefferson or Lamb? Beane already paid Diggs $30M to not be on the roster this year, I’d hate to see Beane try and sell this one to Pegula.
And it’s not like they have nothing at skill positions, second half of last season production came from Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.
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1 minute ago, Victory Formation said:
Why not draft two young players on the cheap? Would you rather we pay Jefferson big money or draft two “good” with high ceilings players on cost controlled contracts? We already did this same very thing with Diggs.
Allen with two of either Legette, Worthy, Franklin, Pearsall, Polk or Burton is a very scary thought.
Kind of where I’m at.
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It is obvious that something was wrong at WR from about the middle of the 2022 season. I’m okay with blowing it up. Don’t think they have the cap space for a big trade. I don’t have a problem with double dipping, whether it is moving up a few in the first and staying put at 60, or vice versa. Go heavy on defense for rest of the draft. Bring in a veteran WR sometime in the summer.
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19 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
Trade for Justin Jefferson. Minnesota is in full rebuild mode and a single WR won't get it done. Give them #28 and a fourth this year, and give them back their #2 in 2025. That should be enough.
I would make that trade in a second, but don’t think it’s enough and Bills don’t have the cap space to pay Jefferson.
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10 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:
We all were saying the same thing, until Fitzpatrick bounced off Allen.
Wasn’t Fitzpatrick, it was 23 Kazee that bounced off Josh. Then Peterson made a business decision not to try and disengage from block being made by Harty, who is 50 pounds lighter.
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The “Shame on us” I take it is sarcasm. I live in South Florida and have for years. I’ve been to multiple Bills games at that stadium, always loaded with Bills fans. That take over of Ft. Lauderdale is not unusual either. Didn’t the guy that owned Salvatore’s Italian Gardens throw a big party every year in Ft. Lauderdale?
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3 minutes ago, Steve O said:
This is actually concerning vis a vis NFL scheduling. First, we fly to London to play a team that has been there for 2 weeks, now we have a short week playing a team coming off a Thursday nite game. Unfair enough having a team coming off a Thursday game getting an extra couple days of recovery when they play on Sunday, but now we get one less day to recover. Schedulers didn't do us any favors this season.
Playing a team that is in complete disarray, with interim coach and backup quarterback.
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18 hours ago, WhoTom said:
Not the Anchorage Anchors?
Fairbanks Tellers?
There aren’t 32 guys that can play QB in the NFL now. Expansion would result in some really bad teams.
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Ralph wanted to put his AFL franchise in Miami, but he could not make a deal with Dade County to play in the Orange Bowl. Pat McGoder, whose name is on the ring had been trying to bring an NFL franchise to Buffalo, when he failed he teamed with Wilson to bring AFL franchise to Buffalo. His son, also named Pat, went to St.Joe’s, he was a friend of my brother. McGroder had a white Lincoln with standing red bison Bills logo on it. My father had season tickets from the start. I didn’t really start to pay attention until 1963.
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If he doesn’t have anything nice to say then he shouldn’t say anything at all.
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Bills 24
Jags17
Only reason it’s this close is because of the location. Don’t understand the point of the games in Europe. I knew people involved in the North American Soccer League in the 1970s, I remember them saying it takes three generations of kids playing a sport for it to become popular. Nobody played soccer when I was a kid, now a lot play. With the controversy around head injury, does the NFL really think European children are going to suddenly start playing American football?
Watched Jags-Falcons, game would have been close if not for Ridder interceptions. Falcons were able to run the ball effectively, if the Bills can do that they will win.
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6 hours ago, tomur67 said:
Anyone remember this game? I don't recall what year it was, but we finally beat the Dolphins at home after many losses. The crowd went wild. They ripped out one of the goal posts and passed it up through the stands and I think they threw it over the top of the stadium.
Home opener 1980, I was there.
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7 hours ago, WotAGuy said:
That’s not even AJ Klein in the video. Fail.
It just dawned on me that we have two AJs and have for years.
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13 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:
All I know is McD called McDaniel’s scheme “revolutionary” in the presser today. He’s scheming all sorts of creative ways to get guys the ball, a lot of misdirection, sleight of hand, magical stuff. No one is calling the Bills offense revolutionary or innovative. I think they could be so much more and I’m not a Dorsey hater. BUT it is extremely tough finding that guy who is a schematic genius. Panthers thought Joe Brady was one, now he’s in Buffalo as a QB’s coach after his failure.
Schematic geniuses are few and far between, it remains to be seen if McDaniel is one. What happens more often than not is defensive coordinators get enough film and find the tendencies. Remember the Wild Cat? Remember the Run and Shoot? Remember when June Jones was a schematic genius?
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2 hours ago, Bangarang said:
Josh and the defense bailed Dorsey out who tried to give the game away with his horrendous play calling.
I don’t think all the play calling is horrendous, but there are moments. I will never understand throwing it on 4th and 18 inches, Josh is 6’5” 240. If you are going to pass put him under center and make it look like a sneak. And why a jet sweep with a new guy?
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15 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:
IT WAS AGAINST THE RAIDERS.
Our problems HAVE ALWAYS stemmed from playing our rivals and not much weaker teams.
I'll revisit this post in a few weeks when we get to the heart of our schedule.
Good teams are supposed to beat up on weak teams. Games against divisional rivals are always tough.
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1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Love the notes, but when did a shovel pass become a fumble? Isn't it considered an incomplete pass?
Could have caught it and then fumbled.
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1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:
Been on a jet ski twice. Both times someone else on a jet ski was acting like an idiot and hit us. Can still feel where the second one skipped off the top of my head. That guy was going extremely fast with three kids on board in an area with a lot of people swimming. I'll never forget how the kids skipped like rocks about 50 yards in different directions. Luckily I was the only one hurt with a minor concussion. I jumped off just before they hit us and tried to go underwater. Happened to fast to get lifejacket off so I popped back up just as the jet ski got hit and got hit in the head. Was told I was extremely lucky I'm not dead.
A friend of mine owned a Jet Ski rental, his biggest problem was people hitting each other.
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What are your draft plans? (Menu, setting, etc)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
You forgot the side of angioplasty. I have dinner, I don’t care what, because I’m too nervous. I just want to watch in peace. I will not accept invitations to do anything, and I will not give an explanation for said declinations. I will be in constant communication with family (other devout Bills fans).