K Gun Special
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Posts posted by K Gun Special
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Calvin Johnson: 6 years, $55.5 million + 8.5 million in incentives
Andre Johnson: 7 years, $63 million
Reggie Wayne I'll give you (for now), he's on the last year of his deal and making $6 million
But if you want to talk sky high, here's a reason why I think new receiver contracts might be higher than you expect...
Larry Fitzgerald: 8 years, $128.5 million
And the franchise tag is $11.5 million. So at $8 million Johnson would be coming in under the money currently being paid to some of the top receivers and, I would guess, under the contracts you will see more and more players getting.
Salaries are going up. The top WRs are going to be topping $10 million per year in their next deals, as we've seen with Fitz.
8 mil per season for stevie is a no-brainer.
Steve isnt in their class, and the Bills wont be paying him as such. The dude had 80 catches last year, and alsmost the same numbers as Hakeem Nicks. You think Nicks is worth $8M?
He's playing well, but you dont give a 4th year player with 100 career catch $8 million a year.
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In terms of market the $8M seems about right, however I'm not sure how they factor in renegotiating the contract early and upping his minimum salary for this year before they have to.
No. In terms of market $8M is sky high, thats calvin johnson, reggie wayne, andre johnson kinda money.
In no one's universe is steve johnson in their tier. He deserves to get paid but not as one of the best WR in the game. He's not.
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Why did you choose ypa as a measure of a franchise QB ?
Why did you come up with 7.2 ypa as a cut off (even if it is approximate) ?
Factor in the poor OL performance and you see that Fitz has done very very well and not just in the past two games.
Even assuming for a moment that the ypa statistic is a leading indicator of greatness, Tim Brady is 7.4 ypa, Manning is 7.6 ypa. I argue both are better QBs than Kelly was especially in the biggest game.
I didnt mean to reference YPC only, as i dont think its a sole indicator of anything. I meant numbers as a whole. Look up the top passers' numbers from the 90s and compare to today.
Kelly was one of the best in the league, he had some of the best numbers in the league. 20 years ago. To compare that to Fitz now doesnt put anything in perspective, it doesnt show a fair comparison of Fitz's development.
You need to breakdown where Fitz is in relation to other QBs in today's NFL.
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I don't want to rain on your parade. But I did a little math.
I started by calculating the average yards per attempt stat for the 15 most recent Fitz games to which you've alluded. It was 6.8. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5. You need to have a career average of 7.2 to (in my book) be considered a marginal franchise QB, and an average of 7.4 to be considered a definite franchise QB.
I then calculated Jim Kelly's average yards per attempt stat from the season you mentioned. It was 8.1. That number has "franchise QB" written all over it!
The difference between 6.8 and 8.1 is big enough that Fitz's last 15 games are not in the same category as Kelly's best season as a Bill. That said, I'd argue that Fitz has played very well during his last two games. If he continues to look as good as he did against the Raiders and Chiefs, his yards per attempt stat will very likely improve.
Not to mention it was 20 years ago. The NFL is far more pass happy now and the numbers skew higher.
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I like the Warner and Gannon analogy...This guy may be the perfect fit for this team-The right guy.
Weren't Plunkett and Stabler sort of like that too-Journeymen who found the right team?
Maybe Gannon, not warner as he was tearing it up before he jumped to the NFL. He threw for 40 TDs in his first NFL season. Nothing like Fitz.
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Fitz's stats over the last 15 games played:
300/512 [58.5%] 3472 yds 30 TDs 16 INTs
Jim Kelly's best season as a Bill - 1991 - 15 games played:
304/474 [64.1%] 3844 yds 33 TDs 17 INTs
If we drafted a QB #1 and he had these stats we'd be dancing jig that we found our new "franchise guy." Fitz is darn close to Kelly's best year as a Bill right now. But in the name of full disclosure I have to admit that I did not think Fitz would be this good when he took over last year. I was wrong.
PTR
Jim was one of the best QBs in the league during his era, and his numbers were always tops. Comparing Fitz's stats to a QB from 20 years ago doesn't show much.
Also youre right, we would be dancing the jig if a new guy was putting up those numbers. Our guy is in his 7th year.
Such a misleading post when you put the numbers next to each other. Why dont you show us how Fitz compares to other QBs over that span???
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Uuummm...they have been checking inside your coat at Sabres games for at least the last several years.
Ummm they glance at the inside of your coat. No touching or enhanced rub downs. Honestly what does an ankle pat prevent security wise that couldn't be hidden elsewhere.
Again, its contraband more than security. They want to drive revenue inside the stadium.
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utterly absurd, its all about contraband and preventing people from smuggling in drinks. If you really think its security, anything that could be hidden in the knee to ankle area could be hidden someplace else. A terrorist isnt going to be stopped by a shlub patting down 1000 drunk idiots. The reduced parking lot hours, new pat downs, they just want you buying more inside and this is the """best practice"" to increase revenue. I mean really, they dont do a damn thing at sabres games, but were suppsoed to believe the NFL on this?
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Jim Kelly's best year ever was 1991 when he threw 33 TDs and 17 INTs, basically the same 2-1 ratio that Fitz has. He threw 474 passes to those 491 for Fitz. He threw for 3844 yards to Fitz's 3541 and he had a much better completion average. But this was Jim Kelly's best year ever, on a 13-2 Super Bowl team (he missed one game) with a fabulous OL, a Hall of Fame RB and Hall of Fame to be WR.
Kelly's second best year ever, he threw for 25 TDs and he had only that one year over 3500 yards.
Just some perspective, not saying Fitz is as good as Kelly in any way. He's pretty good though.
Kelly was tops in a lot of categories too, remember passing numbers in general were lower then. Fitz is not tops in anything.
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This really should be put to rest.
The block SJ used was legal. It wasn't borderline dirty, it was in the open field, and Berry had the chance to see him coming.
Football is a rough game. And knees are really not designed for modern sports activities. Look how Easley injured his knee, on a nothing play in practice, just came down wrong.
For all we know, Berry had a weakened ACL from practice coming into the game.
Even if his knee was weakened by SJ's cut block, what does that prove? Players get dinged and injured by legal hits and normal plays all the time.
Stay away from the Chiefs boards, they'll degrade your sense of what a decent fan board is about.
you cant cut from the side, it was borderline from the side, berry knee buckled inward.
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It was a borderline cut block. Not totally dirty but not the way you are supposed to do it either. He came in from the side and cut Berry, and his injury is exactly why you dont cut from the side.
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I can't tell you the last time I read one of Sullivan's columns.
So...no.
its ok you can tell me, Im a doctor.....
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There are some seriously arrogant dellusions on that board. You would think you were dealing with steeler or patriots fans. Its the friggin. KC chiefs. I expected better from them or at least assumed they would have marginal intelligence
I know, its completelyyyyyyyyyyy different than the fans on this board predicting 10 wins this season. Unfortunately a keyboard and internet connection are all it takes to let the world know you are a fool.
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Kurt Warner's 1st opening day start was until he was 28 either. While some want to be pessimstic richards (realists
), I'll be an optimistic homer.It was and he had less NFL experience than Fitz and threw for 41 TDs his first year. He had also been tearing it up in the AFL and NFL Europe prior to that. It was not a sudden revelation at age 29 or a slow progression.
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10 wins *isn't* possible?
From a mathematical viewpoint, you're wrong.
Is it improbable? Sure, until we win some games we won't be seen as anything other than mediocre at best. But to say 10 wins is *impossible* is simply false.
Thats silly, of course its mathematically possible, its also technically possible that Jasper loses 80 pounds and turns into the reincarnation of Bruce Smith.
So in the context of message board banter, you knew exactly what was meant when i said 10 wins isnt possible.
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Give that man a cigar!
Actually the only thing that will fix our offensive line is....
GET SOME FRICKING OFFENSIVE LINEMEN!!!!
this
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There are only a couple of games on the schedule I'd chalk up as "almost certain" losses -- meaning less than a 25% chance the Bills win. Those are the games @ San Diego and @ New England*. Otherwise, while the Bills will be underdogs in the majority of their games, any of them are "winnable."
I could easily see 10 wins as follows:
KC, OAK, CIN, NYG, WAS, MIAx2, TEN, DEN, and NYJ (in BUF)
That presumes being swept by NE*, and also losing to NYJ (in NJ), SD, PHI, and DAL
Mind you, almost any of these could go either way, as we all know, but if one is taking an optimistic viewpoint I think this is a plausible analysis.
eball, you never post nonsense but I would have to respectfully disagree that 10 wins is possible.
I do see your point that there arent many sure losses and many games could be close. I think sometimes as Bills fans we are somewhat blind to the improvement other teams have made as well.
Also this time of the season is the worst for message boards, just take a look at the Chiefs board, as no fan really knows what their team has in store and everyone is anxious.
That being said, I really think the additions may add 2 wins. Anyone seriously stating 7-10 wins is being very optimistic.
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That's the funniest thing I've read all morning!
He turns 29 in November.
He'll be out of the league in 5 years.
lots of guys become franchise QBs at 29, back off.
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Dumb ? no. If you like the player then dont hesitate.
However, the odds he will be here for years to come arent that great so if you buy you should do so with that understanding.
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Marcel Dareus +1 win
Two new ILBs +1 win
Shawne Merriman +1 win
Dave Wannstedt +1 win
Fitz preparing as #1 QB for first time +1 win
CJ Spiller and/or Brad Smith +1 win
really? what 10 games do they win?
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i bought mine in china and its andrew luck #1
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really? these guys are competing at the highest level of thier profession, and if you don't think they go into a season believing that they are going to win, you're nuts. by no means is this an insult to players, but it's an ego thing. they believe they are the best at what they do and they believe they will win every game. where do you think the "I guarantee we make the playoff's" stements come from. these guys are a different breed & they ALL think this way.
No. they are people, and just like players on bad teams they know they're bad and know their limits.
Do you really think players on the Pittsburgh pirates honestly believe they will make the playoffs?
Just listen to how they speak publicly.... they talk about being competitive but not about the playoffs etc. Now listen to the talk coming from the sabres, they talk about winning it all etc..
Dont fool yourself into believing that every NFL player honestly believes that his team is good enough
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privately the players have used the word "competitive" when asked about the season's prospects. The players know they arent going to be challenging for the playoffs.
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So would you rather have Bell-Levitre-Hangartner-Wood-Green, with Wood and Bell both coming of serious injuries and unable to practice fully and needing to take plays off in games, or Bell-Levitre-Wood-Urbik-Pears, with Wood and Bell both healthy? I don't expect the line to be great this year and still think it's the teams biggest weakness, but I do expect them to be better than last year.
No and I didn't imply that at all. I would prefer a line with more talent than last years or this years. I don't understand how it wasn't addressed in the off-season.
We all expect the line to be better, but then again everyone on this board thinks every players will get better and that alone will be sufficient to add wins. Well other players on other teams get better, and the other teams have been doing more to improve their rosters more so than the Bills, who needed it more.
Stevie and Bills $2M apart
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
True, he did have good TD #s last year, but not elite. Dwayne bowe scored 15 on a team that primarily ran the ball.
Stevie is a clutch player but he's not explosive, he doesnt have a lot of big/long catches that the elite receivers do. All the best have for more 20+yard plays than stevie, almost double in fact.
stevie is good and he will get better, we hope of course. But as other have said, its a business and thats how negotiations go, they break down numbers of similar players and contracts.
I have yet to see anything to support stevie getting $8M year. here are $8m guys http://www.numeroten.com/top10/sports/files/top-10-highest-paid-wide-receivers-in-the-nfl-2011.html