PushthePile Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Anyone out there have the winner for todays race? I'm not much of a horse fan but I do enjoy the big three. Having gone to the track a few times I have a general idea of the different types of bets. My idea for todays race was to play a handful of trifectas and exactas with Mine that Bird. This isn't exactly going out on a limb and I'm curious how more informed handicapper views todays run. It should be fun to see if Borel can get it done again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Anyone out there have the winner for todays race? I'm not much of a horse fan but I do enjoy the big three. Having gone to the track a few times I have a general idea of the different types of bets. My idea for todays race was to play a handful of trifectas and exactas with Mine that Bird. This isn't exactly going out on a limb and I'm curious how more informed handicapper views todays run. It should be fun to see if Borel can get it done again. Not much on horses, but good luck buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOBILLS78 Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Watching Mine That Bird close down the stretch the way he did in Kentucky and Baltimore, I gotta think he's going to win on a longer course such as the Belmont. I know I didn't give you anything you didn't already know, but good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 I only did a cursory analysis, but here's what I see: Mine that Bird will be hard to beat at this distance. Calvin Borel is a great jockey for this horse, and this race, IMO. I'm a little concerned that Calvin isn't taking any other mounts before this race, but not that concerned. The problem of course, is MTB isn't going to pay squat to win. So if I were betting, it would likely be exactas (and maybe a trifecta for laughs). So, what horses do you put with MTB in some exacta bets? My top choice (for value) is Chocolate Candy. He had a decent Derby outing, but I think you have to throw out the Derby performance for all these horses, as it was in the slop. Many think CC might have problem with the dirt of Belmont, but he's been working out on the track for some time now, and the reports are very good. He should go at decent odds. Charitable Man probably is the safest second choice (according to people who know way more about this than I). Great bloodlines, his sire (Lemon Drop Kid) won this race, and CM is unbeaten on Dirt. This horse is very lightly raced, and I don't think it has performed all that great against horses of this class (G1 race) yet. Still, if you're looking for the horse the pros like, this is it. Summer Bird is getting some good word of mouth, due in part to how powerfully he finished the Derby. He was smoking at the end, but had no chance to catch the horses on top. Some think the extra 1.4 mile of the Belmont may make the difference. Dunkirk, like CM, is lightly raced and getting a lot of action at the window, it seems. The horse bombed at the Kentucky Derby, but had a real nice finish (2nd) at the Florida Derby. Another horse the pros like, but I really can't see it. If I was going to take a real flyer on a long-shot, I might look at one of these two: Flying Private finished well at the Preakness, coming on fairly strong to finish 4th. Actually, I'm just looking at the form, and some analyses, but don't really remember this horse coming on strong. But he certainly improved his position from the 3rd call, to the stretch call to the finish. I may be the only one giving Mr. Hot Stuff an outside chance, though I wouldn't bet too much on it. If you throw out the miserable Derby performance, you see a horse that is a strong closer. But, it's another horse that seems to prefer the synthetic track, and I know nothing about its bloodlines. It should be a very competitive race, but there aren't really any standout picks, IMO. I probably won't get to the OTB, as it is very far away, and I'm pretty broke. If I do go, I will make very very small wagers on exacta boxes with MTB and these horses: Chocolate Candy, Charitable Man, Mr. Hot Stuff and maybe Summer Bird. I think most of those exactas should pay a decent price, should they come in, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dog14787 Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 I only did a cursory analysis, but here's what I see: Mine that Bird will be hard to beat at this distance. Calvin Borel is a great jockey for this horse, and this race, IMO. I'm a little concerned that Calvin isn't taking any other mounts before this race, but not that concerned. The problem of course, is MTB isn't going to pay squat to win. So if I were betting, it would likely be exactas (and maybe a trifecta for laughs). So, what horses do you put with MTB in some exacta bets? My top choice (for value) is Chocolate Candy. He had a decent Derby outing, but I think you have to throw out the Derby performance for all these horses, as it was in the slop. Many think CC might have problem with the dirt of Belmont, but he's been working out on the track for some time now, and the reports are very good. He should go at decent odds. Charitable Man probably is the safest second choice (according to people who know way more about this than I). Great bloodlines, his sire (Lemon Drop Kid) won this race, and CM is unbeaten on Dirt. This horse is very lightly raced, and I don't think it has performed all that great against horses of this class (G1 race) yet. Still, if you're looking for the horse the pros like, this is it. Summer Bird is getting some good word of mouth, due in part to how powerfully he finished the Derby. He was smoking at the end, but had no chance to catch the horses on top. Some think the extra 1.4 mile of the Belmont may make the difference. Dunkirk, like CM, is lightly raced and getting a lot of action at the window, it seems. The horse bombed at the Kentucky Derby, but had a real nice finish (2nd) at the Florida Derby. Another horse the pros like, but I really can't see it. If I was going to take a real flyer on a long-shot, I might look at one of these two: Flying Private finished well at the Preakness, coming on fairly strong to finish 4th. Actually, I'm just looking at the form, and some analyses, but don't really remember this horse coming on strong. But he certainly improved his position from the 3rd call, to the stretch call to the finish. I may be the only one giving Mr. Hot Stuff an outside chance, though I wouldn't bet too much on it. If you throw out the miserable Derby performance, you see a horse that is a strong closer. But, it's another horse that seems to prefer the synthetic track, and I know nothing about its bloodlines. It should be a very competitive race, but there aren't really any standout picks, IMO. I probably won't get to the OTB, as it is very far away, and I'm pretty broke. If I do go, I will make very very small wagers on exacta boxes with MTB and these horses: Chocolate Candy, Charitable Man, Mr. Hot Stuff and maybe Summer Bird. I think most of those exactas should pay a decent price, should they come in, of course. Nice analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PushthePile Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 thanks dean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PushthePile Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 Not much on horses, but good luck buddy i appreciate the karma dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 I don't know who the winner is going to be But the biggest loser is going to be the poor schmuck that has to clean up all the horse schitt in the horse stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 thanks dean No problem. But remember I'm not expert. I think Gordio, Hazed and I think another poster of two, really have a much better handle on this stuff. Maybe they'll chime in before post time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 1. Charitable Man 2. Miner's Escape 3. Dunkirk 4. Mine That Bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 Damn....my horse got squeezed out in the stretch. Should have known Desormoux would run a good race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOBILLS78 Posted June 6, 2009 Share Posted June 6, 2009 I have a good feeling about Summer Bird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts