Philly McButterpants Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 Taken with a grain of salt as the Dems will pick up a huge bump from the convention . . . Reuters Poll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 McCain with a 5 point lead . I don't buy it In regards to Obama's post convention bounce, I suspect it won't last long enough to have any effect. The day after Obama's acceptance speech is when McCain will name his running mate. So the MSM will have their coverage split between Obama and McCains running mate Friday-Sunday and then focus on the Republicans the following Monday when their convention starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 #1 - Its Zogby. #2 - There is always a chance (it is usually done at a 95% confidence level) that a certain poll is an outlier. #3 - Its Zogby. #4 - Other Natl tracking polls from yesterday show McCain +1, Obama +1 and Obama +2, all within the MOE #5 - Its Zogby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverNRed Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 #1 - Its Zogby.#2 - There is always a chance (it is usually done at a 95% confidence level) that a certain poll is an outlier. #3 - Its Zogby. #4 - Other Natl tracking polls from yesterday show McCain +1, Obama +1 and Obama +2, all within the MOE #5 - Its Zogby. #6 - It's a poll. #7 - It's a poll. #8 - It's a poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 20, 2008 Share Posted August 20, 2008 #6 - It's a poll.#7 - It's a poll. #8 - It's a poll. Dismissing all polls is rather silly. Anyway, Pollster tackled the "loopy" results today: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_loopy_zogby_polls.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JK2000 Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Obama's problem is that he's losing a lot of Clinton voters to McCain. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26314990/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Obama's problem is that he's losing a lot of Clinton voters to McCain. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26314990/ Incorrect. If you look at overall defection rates, its at historical levels. Currently, the race is at what it was always going to be: a battle for the swing votes. They are breaking in about even thirds right now, which gives the Republicans an advantage (even though Democratic party affiliation and registration levels is always higher, Republicans do a better job with turnout and defection). If Obama can win over this middle group, he'll win. If not, he'll lose. His biggest issue is that the Economic issue has slipped from breaking to him to breaking for McCain - hence the latest ad campaign by Obama. If he can win that issue, he'll get some of those swing voters back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wacka Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 The audio tape today that supposedly shows Obama lying about the abortion bill in the Illinois State Senate is also going to really hurt him if it turns out it is really him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede316 Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 He's down 12 percentage points in the last month. I think his change message is getting old and his vagueness on real issues is finally being questioned by intelligent voters. He didn't do as well in the recent "town hall" forum with McCain than you would have thought and McCain did very well. At the same time the issues with Russia/Georgia and Iraq going well are going to hurt Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Good article about reading polls... http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,407523,00.html Although I personally can't stand the author. If you've ever seen her on TV (and heard that gawd awful shrill banshee 2 packs of Pall Mall's a day voice), you'd know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 What a self-fellating way to write an article about polling. "Look at me, I know better than Hillary!" In any event, she does touch some of the basis of the misconceptions about polling rampant in America. The problem is a basic misunderstanding of what polls are, and aren't. They are a best estimate of current public opinion trends in America, which means they do not predict the outcome of close races. They indicate overall trends within the population, not a "OMG MCCAIN IS UP TODAY, OMG OBAMA IS UP TOMORROW" level of detail. They are based upon past turnout, so fluctuation in turnout numbers will cause them to be inaccurate. It takes time to do a poll, they cannot reflect shifts in a 24-time period accurately. There is also the problem that the media doesn't really ever talk about the polling methods of different people. The one Reuters continues to buy, Zogby, uses a self-selecting sample over the internet to do his polls - it doesn't get much more unreliable than that. She doesn't exactly help the cause though with her concluding paragraph: Of course, it’s not being held today. That’s the problem with these horse race polls. And it’s not being held at the end of next week, at the conclusion of the Democratic Convention, or at the end of the following week, at the end of the Republican Convention. It's still two debates, and countless ads and events, away. And the people who will most likely decide it are watching the Olympics right now. Viewing polls in such a way is flat out useless. I also think her view on exit polling is frankly a bit funny. You can't flat out predict how the results are going to go for a state with no results in yet, and the media is usually quick to jump the gun on calling it. However, they are extremely useful to see who voted for whom and why. For a more in depth view on exit polling, Mark Blumenthal has a good article on the limitations of exit polling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Real Clear Polling Chart: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20..._obama-225.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 NBC/WSJ has Obama's lead at 3%. It's getting tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 It will clear out once Obama picks a VP. Which now I am starting to think Hillary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 It will clear out once Obama picks a VP. Which now I am starting to think Hillary. Read Gregen's piece this morning eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Who is Gregen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Who is Gregen? Eh, long-time pundit: http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/20/obam...a-game-changer/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Eh, sorry I don't know all of the pundits. And no, did not read the AC360 page this morning. I will now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 Eh, sorry I don't know all of the pundits. And no, did not read the AC360 page this morning. I will now though. My "Eh" there was meant as like a "Meh"... no one important, just a long-time pundit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pBills Posted August 21, 2008 Share Posted August 21, 2008 My "Eh" there was meant as like a "Meh"... no one important, just a long-time pundit. My bad, I interpreted as "Ehhh" like dumb-ass. Seriously though thanks for the link. Always up for a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts