/dev/null Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 The Ravens would go higher than a 4th for Losman. Face it folks, there is no market for JP. He's going to be a Bill in 2008 and will walk in 2009. By 2010 he'll either be starting or backing up Mike Vick in Mark Cuban's new league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 Assume for a minute that the Ravens do indeed offer a 2nd rounder for JP. Do we make the deal ? Yes!!!! Who do we then have a backup QB ? Draft Flacco as backup may not be good as we will be backing up a 2nd yr QB with a rookie (yes I am ignoring Hamdan). I think JP is very valuable as a backup this season as options out there are very slim. I'll be the first to state that the backup QBs available in free agency are very underwhelming this year. We'd almost be better off drafting a rookie to be the long-term solution to backup QB; because the available crop of free agent QBs is very weak. Over the course of the 2008 season, the rookie represents a probable downgrade from Losman at the backup QB position. Also, Losman is at his best when he's coming in off the bench; when the other team has prepared a gameplan for some other QB. That makes him better as a backup than as a starter. But how many game will the expected downgrade in backup QB play really cost us? Of the (hypothetically speaking) four games Edwards might be injured in, the Bills might have lost, say, 1 - 2 of those games even with Losman in there. Of the 2 - 3 games the Bills might have won with Losman under center, how many might they win with the rookie QB taking the snaps? Knowing this coaching staff, they'd keep the game plan conservative, keep the rookie from costing the team the game, and try to win with defense and Marshawn Lynch. That plan would probably win the Bills 1 - 2 games for every four that Edwards is injured. It would be very surprising if the difference between Losman and the rookie cost the Bills more than just one football game. Bear in mind that the difference between those two players won't matter except in games where Edwards can't play. Also, the difference between the two will grow smaller as the season wears on, and the rookie absorbs more information. So let's say that the expected price of trading away Losman is one less win next season. Compare that price to the benefit the 2nd round pick might be providing. Let's say the 2nd round pick is a center to replace Melvin Fowler. Over the course of this guy's career, getting solid play from the center position will make the difference between winning and losing in multiple football games. The expected benefit (solid play from the center position, or whichever other position the Bills choose, for many years to come) far exceeds the expected cost (one less win in 2008). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 Yes!!!! I'll be the first to state that the backup QBs available in free agency are very underwhelming this year. We'd almost be better off drafting a rookie to be the long-term solution to backup QB; because the available crop of free agent QBs is very weak. Over the course of the 2008 season, the rookie represents a probable downgrade from Losman at the backup QB position. Also, Losman is at his best when he's coming in off the bench; when the other team has prepared a gameplan for some other QB. That makes him better as a backup than as a starter. But how many game will the expected downgrade in backup QB play really cost us? Of the (hypothetically speaking) four games Edwards might be injured in, the Bills might have lost, say, 1 - 2 of those games even with Losman in there. Of the 2 - 3 games the Bills might have won with Losman under center, how many might they win with the rookie QB taking the snaps? Knowing this coaching staff, they'd keep the game plan conservative, keep the rookie from costing the team the game, and try to win with defense and Marshawn Lynch. That plan would probably win the Bills 1 - 2 games for every four that Edwards is injured. It would be very surprising if the difference between Losman and the rookie cost the Bills more than just one football game. Bear in mind that the difference between those two players won't matter except in games where Edwards can't play. Also, the difference between the two will grow smaller as the season wears on, and the rookie absorbs more information. So let's say that the expected price of trading away Losman is one less win next season. Compare that price to the benefit the 2nd round pick might be providing. Let's say the 2nd round pick is a center to replace Melvin Fowler. Over the course of this guy's career, getting solid play from the center position will make the difference between winning and losing in multiple football games. The expected benefit (solid play from the center position, or whichever other position the Bills choose, for many years to come) far exceeds the expected cost (one less win in 2008). This is correct. The Bills should only trade Losman for a high 2nd or better. The Ravens pick at #8 is probably high enough to allow the Bills flexibility to draft a QB in that range who is good enough to be #2.. They will also need to bring in a vet as insurance and stability as #3. Trading JP for anything lower is counter productive to building the core of the team and success in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 This is correct. The Bills should only trade Losman for a high 2nd or better. The Ravens pick at #8 is probably high enough to allow the Bills flexibility to draft a QB in that range who is good enough to be #2.. They will also need to bring in a vet as insurance and stability as #3. Trading JP for anything lower is counter productive to building the core of the team and success in 2008 Losman isn't worth a high 2nd round pick, and I'd be very surprised if anyone was foolish enough to offer one for him. If someone does, then by all means the Bills should take it. Personally, I'd be perfectly happy to trade him away for a 3rd round pick. My hope is for this team to win the Super Bowl, and that's not going to happen in 2008. Better to get a 3rd round pick (who can help the team beyond just this year) than to lose out on that first day pick for a one and done type player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 Losman isn't worth a high 2nd round pick, and I'd be very surprised if anyone was foolish enough to offer one for him. If someone does, then by all means the Bills should take it. Personally, I'd be perfectly happy to trade him away for a 3rd round pick. My hope is for this team to win the Super Bowl, and that's not going to happen in 2008. Better to get a 3rd round pick (who can help the team beyond just this year) than to lose out on that first day pick for a one and done type player. JP is worth more as a backup in 2008 to the Bills than a 3rd round pick- especially since they would have to waste other assets to find an inferior backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 JP is worth more as a backup in 2008 to the Bills than a 3rd round pick- especially since they would have to waste other assets to find an inferior backup. I agree that, for 2008 purposes only, Losman may be worth more than a 3rd round pick. But Losman has no value beyond 2008; whereas a 3rd round pick would. Should the team build for this year only, or should it build for the next several years to come? Given that the Bills didn't even make the playoffs this year, I don't see them winning a Super Bowl this year. Better, therefore, to have a player who can contribute in the future (when the Bills will hopefully be in serious Super Bowl contention) than a guy who's on his way out after this season is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 I agree that, for 2008 purposes only, Losman may be worth more than a 3rd round pick. But Losman has no value beyond 2008; whereas a 3rd round pick would. Should the team build for this year only, or should it build for the next several years to come? Given that the Bills didn't even make the playoffs this year, I don't see them winning a Super Bowl this year. Better, therefore, to have a player who can contribute in the future (when the Bills will hopefully be in serious Super Bowl contention) than a guy who's on his way out after this season is over. We (and other teams) have to decide: Is Losman a season from now going to be worth to the Bills what Andre Woodson or Josh Johnson will be? Those are the 3rd Round QB's this year. From the other side of the coin, is Losman going to be worth to the Ravens (or Packers, or whoever) more than what Andre Woodson or Josh Johnson will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 19, 2008 Share Posted April 19, 2008 We (and other teams) have to decide: Is Losman a season from now going to be worth to the Bills what Andre Woodson or Josh Johnson will be? Those are the 3rd Round QB's this year. From the other side of the coin, is Losman going to be worth to the Ravens (or Packers, or whoever) more than what Andre Woodson or Josh Johnson will be? If by "a season from now," you're referring to the 2009 season, the answer to your question WRT the Bills is obvious. Losman will be worth exactly zero to the Bills in 2009, because he'll be with some other team. If the Bills were to use a 3rd round pick on a QB, the plan would (presumably) be for this guy to be the Bills' backup QB for at least the next ten years. Losman will only give us one year of backup services before he leaves. Hmmm . . . 10 years of having a quality backup, or one year . . . hmmmm. I'm not familiar with this year's QB class, so I don't know how Losman stacks up to the Andre Woodsons and Josh Johnsons of the draft. Hopefully, some team will look at Losman's physical skills, and decide that under the right circumstances, with the right coaching, Losman could seriously compete for a starting position. I think a team with the head coach making the personnel decisions would be more likely to make that mistake than a team with a general manager running the show. But you never know; and hopefully there are still GMs who make the mistake of believing that a QB's physical gifts and his upside are the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted April 20, 2008 Share Posted April 20, 2008 If by "a season from now," you're referring to the 2009 season, the answer to your question WRT the Bills is obvious. Losman will be worth exactly zero to the Bills in 2009, because he'll be with some other team. If the Bills were to use a 3rd round pick on a QB, the plan would (presumably) be for this guy to be the Bills' backup QB for at least the next ten years. Losman will only give us one year of backup services before he leaves. Hmmm . . . 10 years of having a quality backup, or one year . . . hmmmm. I'm not familiar with this year's QB class, so I don't know how Losman stacks up to the Andre Woodsons and Josh Johnsons of the draft. Hopefully, some team will look at Losman's physical skills, and decide that under the right circumstances, with the right coaching, Losman could seriously compete for a starting position. I think a team with the head coach making the personnel decisions would be more likely to make that mistake than a team with a general manager running the show. But you never know; and hopefully there are still GMs who make the mistake of believing that a QB's physical gifts and his upside are the same thing. relying on a 3rd round rookie to be your only backup QB for 2008 is pretty suicidal. Expecting to strike gold 2 years in a row is pretty optimistic. Since the scuttlebut is that Jauron is playing for his job in 2008 - can't see how they move JP this year. Even if they keep JP, that 3rd round QB may be ready to play in 2009 and would be a more prudent plan than trading JP for peanuts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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