Fastro Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 Can someone please explain to me what pick value is? I just don't see the connection between "so called experts" pick value and draft position. If a team has a need and has targeted a player, why is it a "reach" to draft that player at a position other than what was predicted by people who get paid to write about football by giving us their opinion? If we look at it from a science point of view, natural selection is where organisms adapt to their environment to survive. If a team needs a LB, go after the best available player or risk continuing to suffer because the media evaluates a player as a "reach". In economics, the law of supply and demand determines when and for how much a product sells. How often does a player's stock rise from a great combine or pro day workout based only on their physical attributes with no regard to their college career? My point is, if the Bills feel they need a WR as their #1 need, then go after their number 1 choice with the 11th pick. If the FO has done their homework and the player pans out, I disagree that it has been a reach. As troubled as our offense was last year, especially in the red zone, a TD maker would be a welcome addition to the team. If the FO thinks we should improve our DBs then go after their number 1 CB and forget what the so called experts think. Just my 2 cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanincuse Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 Can someone please explain to me what pick value is? I just don't see the connection between "so called experts" pick value and draft position. If a team has a need and has targeted a player, why is it a "reach" to draft that player at a position other than what was predicted by people who get paid to write about football by giving us their opinion? If we look at it from a science point of view, natural selection is where organisms adapt to their environment to survive. If a team needs a LB, go after the best available player or risk continuing to suffer because the media evaluates a player as a "reach". In economics, the law of supply and demand determines when and for how much a product sells. How often does a player's stock rise from a great combine or pro day workout based only on their physical attributes with no regard to their college career? My point is, if the Bills feel they need a WR as their #1 need, then go after their number 1 choice with the 11th pick. If the FO has done their homework and the player pans out, I disagree that it has been a reach. As troubled as our offense was last year, especially in the red zone, a TD maker would be a welcome addition to the team. If the FO thinks we should improve our DBs then go after their number 1 CB and forget what the so called experts think. Just my 2 cents! Reach is just a word it really means nothing. Its just talk that draft experts use to boost ratings. "did you hear the bills took a reach player" when people hear that everyone has to know why so they turn on ESPN, ESPN ratings go up And Mel Kiper and John Clayton talk more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 theres no such thing as a "reach". its just a term to save expert ego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_red Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 theres no such thing as a "reach". its just a term to save expert ego. So say we take Tommy Blake at 11, that is not a reach? Cuz f yea it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 So say we take Tommy Blake at 11, that is not a reach? Cuz f yea it is. and what if the pros know something we dont, and he goes on to have a HoF career? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 Can someone please explain to me what pick value is? I just don't see the connection between "so called experts" pick value and draft position. If a team has a need and has targeted a player, why is it a "reach" to draft that player at a position other than what was predicted by people who get paid to write about football by giving us their opinion? If we look at it from a science point of view, natural selection is where organisms adapt to their environment to survive. If a team needs a LB, go after the best available player or risk continuing to suffer because the media evaluates a player as a "reach". In economics, the law of supply and demand determines when and for how much a product sells. How often does a player's stock rise from a great combine or pro day workout based only on their physical attributes with no regard to their college career? My point is, if the Bills feel they need a WR as their #1 need, then go after their number 1 choice with the 11th pick. If the FO has done their homework and the player pans out, I disagree that it has been a reach. As troubled as our offense was last year, especially in the red zone, a TD maker would be a welcome addition to the team. If the FO thinks we should improve our DBs then go after their number 1 CB and forget what the so called experts think. Just my 2 cents! http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 and what if the pros know something we dont, and he goes on to have a HoF career? If you pick someone at a much higher spot than conventional wisdom has him- if he does well you are a maverick genius and deserve more money, if he does poorly then you're stupid and should be fired - harsh but true - if you pick with conventional wisdom than less risk and less reward. Case in point Ngata and Whitner, if Ngata continues to improve like he did from his first to second year the Whitner pick is going to look worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 and what if the pros know something we dont, and he goes on to have a HoF career? Then they are geniuses. Oh wait, they are already geniuses because they know special things that other good football people don't. Circular logic can be challenging. There is no such thing as a reach Yeah, that's the ticket. Every NFL team spends insane amounts of money to measure, probe, scout, test, investigate these athletes. All this data is compiled and chugged through their computer and each and every player is given various grades. The executive staff has meetings with the head scouts and they assign final overall grades. A reach is a term that means that after all this work is done, there is a team that takes a player that grades significantly lower than many other players still on the board at that point in the draft. So, drafting a guy with a 67.3 rating at #11 when there are 20 players at 80 or better (an absurd made up example for effect) would be a supreme reach and deserving of some raised eyebrows if not open ridicule. Now the team doing the reaching may well have the guy rated at 94.7 because he is the coach's son or something, but that doesn't turn reality on its head and suddenly mean the player is HoF caliber and all the other football geniuses in the NFL are fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanincuse Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 If you pick someone at a much higher spot than conventional wisdom has him- if he does well you are a maverick genius and deserve more money, if he does poorly then you're stupid and should be fired - harsh but true - if you pick with conventional wisdom than less risk and less reward. Case in point Ngata and Whitner, if Ngata continues to improve like he did from his first to second year the Whitner pick is going to look worse and worse. Since Whitner has been just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 If you pick someone at a much higher spot than conventional wisdom has him- if he does well you are a maverick genius and deserve more money, if he does poorly then you're stupid and should be fired - harsh but true - if you pick with conventional wisdom than less risk and less reward. Case in point Ngata and Whitner, if Ngata continues to improve like he did from his first to second year the Whitner pick is going to look worse and worse. this Ngata/Whitner argument that keeps being brought up is lost on me. I guess Im one of the few that understand what Whitner means to our defense, and feel we are building a good interior to the DLine. Im sorry we didnt pick someone you heard of. I know it was quite a shock, I was distraught too. But Ive taken the time to try to understand what Marv and Dick and Co are thinking. And we might as well roll with it. You can still be griping about the pick 3 years from now and we'll still have Whitner playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 this Ngata/Whitner argument that keeps being brought up is lost on me. I guess Im one of the few that understand what Whitner means to our defense, and feel we are building a good interior to the DLine. Im sorry we didnt pick someone you heard of. I know it was quite a shock, I was distraught too. But Ive taken the time to try to understand what Marv and Dick and Co are thinking. And we might as well roll with it. You can still be griping about the pick 3 years from now and we'll still have Whitner playing People say you can't judge a draft until 3 years later- and you say I shouldn't bring up something that happen 3 years ago- what a sweet Job - must be a Republican Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 People say you can't judge a draft until 3 years later- and you say I shouldn't bring up something that happen 3 years ago. you can judge it all you want. i dont agree with your assessment. i think Whitner is a very good player. Im not saying that Ngata wouldnt have been a good pick. Im saying youre wasting youre breath/bandwidth with this argument against Whitner. i also edited your post down to make you look a little less obtuse edit: obtuse is not the word i want to use there. ill go with cloddish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted April 13, 2008 Share Posted April 13, 2008 Can someone please explain to me what pick value is? I just don't see the connection between "so called experts" pick value and draft position. If a team has a need and has targeted a player, why is it a "reach" to draft that player at a position other than what was predicted by people who get paid to write about football by giving us their opinion? If we look at it from a science point of view, natural selection is where organisms adapt to their environment to survive. If a team needs a LB, go after the best available player or risk continuing to suffer because the media evaluates a player as a "reach". In economics, the law of supply and demand determines when and for how much a product sells. How often does a player's stock rise from a great combine or pro day workout based only on their physical attributes with no regard to their college career? My point is, if the Bills feel they need a WR as their #1 need, then go after their number 1 choice with the 11th pick. If the FO has done their homework and the player pans out, I disagree that it has been a reach. As troubled as our offense was last year, especially in the red zone, a TD maker would be a welcome addition to the team. If the FO thinks we should improve our DBs then go after their number 1 CB and forget what the so called experts think. Just my 2 cents! It's not an exact science, however it seems that the "grade" assigned a player should correspond to where in the draft he is taken, along what the need for the team is at that prospective position. i.e. Drafting Roscoe Parrish with Buffalo's first pick (round two) , probably wasn't a great pick. When you consider the other glaring needs on the team at that point, it was probably a bad pick. Nothing against Roscoe. http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDr...2008/About2.htm http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...yers/56967.html http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...grading_system/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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