Peyton Manning is better than any West Coast QB

[AKC]

While statistics are sometimes misleading, considered in full context they can be enlightening in demonstrating the dynamics playing out “between the lines” of any football game. A game of football can be watched many ways, but sometimes even the experienced watcher can miss critical elements within the game that are crucial to a more complete understanding. It is here, in the nuances of the game, that statistics can fill in enough pieces of the picture to help answer some of the most common questions about the game of football as played in the NFL such as “Who’s the best Quarterback?”.

 

In order to establish this, it’s important to understand the stark differences between offensive schemes. Even casual fans understand that there’s a big difference between playing QB in an Option Offense and a traditional NFL Downfield Passing Offense. What most fans overlook is that the differences between a System Offense like the West Coast and a traditional Downfield Passing Offense differ to probably a greater degree than even the Option Offense does to Traditional Downfield Passing Offenses. I’ll demonstrate that here.

 

The West Coast Offense was designed specifically to- at the earliest moment- get the ball out of the QB’s hands and into the hands of a playmaker. At its roots the West Coast System seeks to limit the QB’s role to that of a “point guard” in distributing the ball to the “shooters” on the team. By contrast, the traditonal Downfield Passing Quarterback is required to be both “point guard” and “shooter”.

 

Like the college Option Offense, a staple of the West Coast is having much of the ball exchange taking place behind or within a few yards of the LOS. In fact, much like the Option Quarterback, the West Coast System rewards QBs who have better skills in that short range of play from the backfield out to about 10 yards from the Line Of Scrimmage.

 

The traditional Downfield Passing Quarterback has no such luxury- he is asked to perform almost the opposite job from the West Coast or Option type Quarterback- he is tasked with effectively throwing the ball downfield beyond 10 yards, with the consequences of his personal failure being the failure of his offense. Unlike his counterpart in a West Coast System, where the Quarterback is looking to immediately put the ball in the hands of a playmaker, the Downfield Pro Passing Quarterback is the team’s primary playmaker. This fundamental difference separates completely the requirements to play in a traditional Downfield Pro Passing Offense versus a West Coast System:

 

The West Coast QB's primary task is to distribute the ball to his offense’s playmakers.

 

The Downfield Passing Quarterback is the Primary Playmaker within his offense.

 

 

We can statistically demonstrate this difference by looking at the highest regarded QBs in the game today.

 

Peyton Manning is a traditional QB throwing the ball downfield effectively year after year. Peyton threw the lowest number of behind the Line of Scrimmage passes per game among all NFL starters in 2006. Manning has a QB rating on downfield passes of 112 and a completion rate on those downfield balls beyond 10 yards of 57%. Manning makes the throws, and makes them effectively, that are required for a traditional Downfield Passing Quarterback to lead a Downfield Offense as its primary playmaker. His effectiveness is the single most important key to the success of his offense. If he fails throwing the ball downfield with effectiveness, his offense will also fail.

 

On the other side of the offensive style spectrum we have the System QB. Looking at the top-rated System Quarterback in the game today we can study the stark difference between a traditional NFL QB like Manning and a System QB. Tom Brady once again had a terrible year throwing the ball downfield, as he has throughout his career. In fact, in 2006 of all his passes thrown over 10 yards Brady completed only 38%. Over 30 yards Brady hit on only 25% of his throws. On these balls downfield, where a good downfield passer like Drew Brees held a passer rating of 137, the system QB in New England was only able to manage a QB rating of 66. Brady this year was among the worst starters in the NFL in passing beyond 10 yards.

 

2006 Season Quarterback Stats:

 

Manning Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 57% Passer Rating 112

 

Brady Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 38%Passer Rating 66

 

Brees Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 58% Passer Rating 137

 

Don’t assume that these awful downfield passing numbers of Brady are exclusive to the 2006 campaign; they actually parallel his career numbers which are a QB Rating of 67 and completion percentage barely over 40% when throwing 10 yards or more downfield. Brady plays in a System that doesn’t require that he throw downfield well, and luckily for his team the System hasn’t penalized him or his offense for his bottom of the league performances throwing downfield. Surely the biggest advantage to not having to be effective downfield is that Brady doesn’t have to put himself into the highest pressure situations that Downfield Passing QB’s face throughout a game. The fact is the West Coast QB has far less pressure and far greater opportunities to simply dump the ball on the sidelines, a staple of Brady’s game. Tom Brady’s numbers prove that you can complete less than 40% of your throws downfield in the West Coast and it will have virtually no apparent negative impact on the effectiveness of the System Offense.

 

On the other hand, if Manning or Brees complete only 38% of their downfield passes, the Saints and Colts miss the playoffs this year- and badly. Unlike their counterpart in New England, Manning and Brees are of course the primary playmakers in their offenses. Manning and Brees simply don’t have the luxury of throwing every second or third long ball to the sidelines to avoid pressure or sacks. The design of their Downfield Passing offenses places the largest burden of offensive success squarely on the Quarterback’s shoulders. In the West Coast, the percentage of burden on the Quarterback for offensive success is dramatically reduced.

 

It’s clear from the irrefutable record of Brady’s horrible record career-long downfield passing during a span that his team’s offense has played effectively: the West Coast QB has a mere fraction of the pressure and responsibility burden that Downfield Passing Offenses places upon theirs. It’s mandatory to factor this in when considering any title for “Best in the League”. We would be insulting Quarterbacks who have made their NFL living the “hard way”- standing in pockets facing the rush and making deep throws with their team’s success completely on the line- if we simply ignore all the clear proof that shows that System Quarterbacks don’t measure up to the Downfield Passing Quarterbacks when it comes to the tasks they perform, their level of responsibility within their offense or the pressure they face as a result. Manning may not be the best QB in the NFL today, but he’s still far, far better than any of the System Quarterbacks who have ever played in the NFL up to this point in history.

[agilen]

What were Losman's numbers beyond 10 yards?

[ganesh]

What were Losman's numbers beyond 10 yards?

 

Better than Bradys !

[AKC]

What were Losman's numbers beyond 10 yards?

 

Not to drift too much from the topic of "Best in the Game", but JP's QB Rating downfield was 80.

[stuckincincy]

While statistics are sometimes misleading, considered in full context they can be enlightening in demonstrating...

 

Informative post, AKC. Thanks!

[Wraith]

Now these are the kind of topics I can dig my teeth into. Great work, very well-reasoned, very well-written. You've made me want to start going through some of those numbers myself!

[Prognastic]

Wow, Peyton Manning is a great QB! What are you going to tell us next, that water is wet? How about that there's no oxygen in space?

 

Come on, break some more ground here.

[soco]

I guess my question is that the reason Manning or Brees wouldn't make the playoffs with a complete rate of 38% downfield is that that's not their scheme? That doesn't necessarily mean they are better quarterbacks than others in other schemes, as the other guy mentioned, Tom Brady, just gets it done (most of the time) with the little tools he has. If he had a Harrison or Wayne as a down field threat, you don't think that his completion rate would go up?

 

I see what you're saying and I mainly agree, but I'm not sure (only because I've never played quarterback, and certainly not at the NFL level) that spread offense has more pressure than a West Coast precision offense or the reverse of that. The statistics don't seem to support your argument but instead seem to say that these guys are good in the schemes they are in.

[Hollywood Donahoe]

The statistics don't seem to support your argument...

When has that ever stopped AKC?

[Joe]

The patriots do not run a west coast offense.

[ofiba]

Interesting data, but I don't think it really proves who is "better". Your argument seems to imply that throwing short passes to a variety of different receivers takes little skill and anyone can do it. You act as though ANYONE can throw short passes, so the only way to gauge who is a great QB is how they throw the ball downfield. If this is the case, why doesn't everyone just switch to a short passing offense and sign any bloke off the street. Look what happened to the Bills when they switched to the west coast, or Atlanta. The fact is, it takes real talent to run a quick thinking, spread the ball around, short passing game offense. For whatever reason, Brady has the ability to get rid of the ball quickly and give it to the right guy to make a play. Montana made a Hall of Fame career out of it. This data only shows that Manning is a better downfield passer than Brady, not that he is an overall better qb. (I think he is, but this data doesn't convince me)

[Wraith]

I guess my question is that the reason Manning or Brees wouldn't make the playoffs with a complete rate of 38% downfield is that that's not their scheme? That doesn't necessarily mean they are better quarterbacks than others in other schemes, as the other guy mentioned, Tom Brady, just gets it done (most of the time) with the little tools he has. If he had a Harrison or Wayne as a down field threat, you don't think that his completion rate would go up?

 

I see what you're saying and I mainly agree, but I'm not sure (only because I've never played quarterback, and certainly not at the NFL level) that spread offense has more pressure than a West Coast precision offense or the reverse of that. The statistics don't seem to support your argument but instead seem to say that these guys are good in the schemes they are in.

 

After looking at the numbers over a five year period, I am convinced that it is not a scheme issue, or a "who is better" issue, at all. The facts of the matter are that Manning and Brady throw "down field" at almost the same rate. Manning is just MUCH better at it.

 

First a definition, then some numbers: "Down field passing" is defined as passes thrown more than 10 yards IN THE AIR. All other passes are "short."

 

_________________TD___INT___COMP/ATT___RATING___PCT of Passes

P.Manning_Short___83____35______0.73_______92.54______64.29%

T.Brady___Short___86____29______0.72_______94.59______66.52%

 

_________________TD___INT___COMP/ATT___RATING___PCT of Passes

P.Manning_Long___105____45______0.54______112.14______35.71%

T.Brady___Long____54____45______0.43_______77.13______33.48%

 

As you can see, Manning and Brady both throw short about 65% of the time and long about 35% of the time. They have nearly identical short passing numbers across the board, in fact. When throwing long though, similarities evaporate. Manning has nearly double the amount of touchdowns while throwing the same amount of intereceptions, has a completion percentage 11 percentage points higher, leading to an overall QB rating of 112.14 (Which is spectacular) while Brady has a mediocre 77.13.

 

So what does it all mean? I have no idea. All the numbers tell us is that Manning is a much better down field passer than Brady. Any conclusions about who contributes more to their offense is unfounded. It does make the mind wonder, though. Certainly, you wonder if Brady's inability to pass beyond ten yards down field is a major reason why all his "game winning" drives ended with long field goals, and when he finally needed to get all the way down the field (as opposed to coming up 35 yards short) he simply couldn't muster up a vertical passing game.

[Dawgg]

I will ask you 2 questions:

 

1) Does the fact that Manning has 2 1st round, Pro Bowl WRs and 1 first round Pro-Bowl caliber tight end and another first round RB have any bearing on this?

 

2) How about turnover. Manning has had the same coordinaor and the same offensive personnel surrounding him for most of his career. For Brady, it is quite the contrary.

 

In any case, nobody is going to dispute that Manning is a better and more prolific passer. I will say, however, that Brady is the better overall QB. If Reche Caldwell catches that wide open pass (which was on target and an easy TD) we wouldn't even be talking about Manning right now.

 

 

While statistics are sometimes misleading, considered in full context they can be enlightening in demonstrating the dynamics playing out “between the lines” of any football game. A game of football can be watched many ways, but sometimes even the experienced watcher can miss critical elements within the game that are crucial to a more complete understanding. It is here, in the nuances of the game, that statistics can fill in enough pieces of the picture to help answer some of the most common questions about the game of football as played in the NFL such as “Who’s the best Quarterback?”.

 

In order to establish this, it’s important to understand the stark differences between offensive schemes. Even casual fans understand that there’s a big difference between playing QB in an Option Offense and a traditional NFL Downfield Passing Offense. What most fans overlook is that the differences between a System Offense like the West Coast and a traditional Downfield Passing Offense differ to probably a greater degree than even the Option Offense does to Traditional Downfield Passing Offenses. I’ll demonstrate that here.

 

The West Coast Offense was designed specifically to- at the earliest moment- get the ball out of the QB’s hands and into the hands of a playmaker. At its roots the West Coast System seeks to limit the QB’s role to that of a “point guard” in distributing the ball to the “shooters” on the team. By contrast, the traditonal Downfield Passing Quarterback is required to be both “point guard” and “shooter”.

 

Like the college Option Offense, a staple of the West Coast is having much of the ball exchange taking place behind or within a few yards of the LOS. In fact, much like the Option Quarterback, the West Coast System rewards QBs who have better skills in that short range of play from the backfield out to about 10 yards from the Line Of Scrimmage.

 

The traditional Downfield Passing Quarterback has no such luxury- he is asked to perform almost the opposite job from the West Coast or Option type Quarterback- he is tasked with effectively throwing the ball downfield beyond 10 yards, with the consequences of his personal failure being the failure of his offense. Unlike his counterpart in a West Coast System, where the Quarterback is looking to immediately put the ball in the hands of a playmaker, the Downfield Pro Passing Quarterback is the team’s primary playmaker. This fundamental difference separates completely the requirements to play in a traditional Downfield Pro Passing Offense versus a West Coast System:

 

The West Coast QB's primary task is to distribute the ball to his offense’s playmakers.

 

The Downfield Passing Quarterback is the Primary Playmaker within his offense.

We can statistically demonstrate this difference by looking at the highest regarded QBs in the game today.

 

Peyton Manning is a traditional QB throwing the ball downfield effectively year after year. Peyton threw the lowest number of behind the Line of Scrimmage passes per game among all NFL starters in 2006. Manning has a QB rating on downfield passes of 112 and a completion rate on those downfield balls beyond 10 yards of 57%. Manning makes the throws, and makes them effectively, that are required for a traditional Downfield Passing Quarterback to lead a Downfield Offense as its primary playmaker. His effectiveness is the single most important key to the success of his offense. If he fails throwing the ball downfield with effectiveness, his offense will also fail.

 

On the other side of the offensive style spectrum we have the System QB. Looking at the top-rated System Quarterback in the game today we can study the stark difference between a traditional NFL QB like Manning and a System QB. Tom Brady once again had a terrible year throwing the ball downfield, as he has throughout his career. In fact, in 2006 of all his passes thrown over 10 yards Brady completed only 38%. Over 30 yards Brady hit on only 25% of his throws. On these balls downfield, where a good downfield passer like Drew Brees held a passer rating of 137, the system QB in New England was only able to manage a QB rating of 66. Brady this year was among the worst starters in the NFL in passing beyond 10 yards.

 

2006 Season Quarterback Stats:

 

Manning Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 57% Passer Rating 112

 

Brady Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 38%Passer Rating 66

 

Brees Beyond 10 Yards> Comp. % 58% Passer Rating 137

 

Don’t assume that these awful downfield passing numbers of Brady are exclusive to the 2006 campaign; they actually parallel his career numbers which are a QB Rating of 67 and completion percentage barely over 40% when throwing 10 yards or more downfield. Brady plays in a System that doesn’t require that he throw downfield well, and luckily for his team the System hasn’t penalized him or his offense for his bottom of the league performances throwing downfield. Surely the biggest advantage to not having to be effective downfield is that Brady doesn’t have to put himself into the highest pressure situations that Downfield Passing QB’s face throughout a game. The fact is the West Coast QB has far less pressure and far greater opportunities to simply dump the ball on the sidelines, a staple of Brady’s game. Tom Brady’s numbers prove that you can complete less than 40% of your throws downfield in the West Coast and it will have virtually no apparent negative impact on the effectiveness of the System Offense.

 

On the other hand, if Manning or Brees complete only 38% of their downfield passes, the Saints and Colts miss the playoffs this year- and badly. Unlike their counterpart in New England, Manning and Brees are of course the primary playmakers in their offenses. Manning and Brees simply don’t have the luxury of throwing every second or third long ball to the sidelines to avoid pressure or sacks. The design of their Downfield Passing offenses places the largest burden of offensive success squarely on the Quarterback’s shoulders. In the West Coast, the percentage of burden on the Quarterback for offensive success is dramatically reduced.

 

It’s clear from the irrefutable record of Brady’s horrible record career-long downfield passing during a span that his team’s offense has played effectively: the West Coast QB has a mere fraction of the pressure and responsibility burden that Downfield Passing Offenses places upon theirs. It’s mandatory to factor this in when considering any title for “Best in the League”. We would be insulting Quarterbacks who have made their NFL living the “hard way”- standing in pockets facing the rush and making deep throws with their team’s success completely on the line- if we simply ignore all the clear proof that shows that System Quarterbacks don’t measure up to the Downfield Passing Quarterbacks when it comes to the tasks they perform, their level of responsibility within their offense or the pressure they face as a result. Manning may not be the best QB in the NFL today, but he’s still far, far better than any of the System Quarterbacks who have ever played in the NFL up to this point in history.

[ganesh]

They have nearly identical short passing numbers across the board, in fact. When throwing long though, similarities evaporate. Manning has nearly double the amount of touchdowns while throwing the same amount of intereceptions, has a completion percentage 11 percentage points higher, leading to an overall QB rating of 112.14 (Which is spectacular) while Brady has a mediocre 77.13.

 

So what does it all mean? I have no idea. All the numbers tell us is that Manning is a much better down field passer than Brady.

 

All it means is that Manning has Harrison/Wayne/Clark/3rd WR to throw to, whereas Brady has scrubs like Gaffney and Reche Caldwell to throw the long ball.

[Wraith]

Some other interesting facts I learned while running the numbers:

 

Tom Brady went the first two years of his starting career without completing a pass over 40 yards (0 for 14). For reference, Losman completed 3 this year in fewer attempts (3 for 10).

 

Brady had the worst down field passing year of his career since 2002. He only threw past 10 yards 28% of the time while earning a 66 passer rating.

 

Of the top 15 QBs in 2006, the lowest percentage of downfield passes was held by David Carr at 17.46%. For reference, the next closest QB in the top 15 was Drew Brees at 26.85% Tom Brady's percentage of 27.91 put him at 11th out of the top 15. Interestingly enough, Drew Brees and Steve McNair threw downfield even less while Chad Pennington threw down field MORE.

 

J.P. Losman's downfield percentage of 29.60% put him at #9 out of the top 15. This was almost double the frequency with which Kelly Holcomb threw down field in 2005 (15.54%).

[billfan63]

After looking at the numbers over a five year period, I am convinced that it is not a scheme issue, or a "who is better" issue, at all. The facts of the matter are that Manning and Brady throw "down field" at almost the same rate. Manning is just MUCH better at it.

 

First a definition, then some numbers: "Down field passing" is defined as passes thrown more than 10 yards IN THE AIR. All other passes are "short."

 

_________________TD___INT___COMP/ATT___RATING___PCT of Passes

P.Manning_Short___83____35______0.73_______92.54______64.29%

T.Brady___Short___86____29______0.72_______94.59______66.52%

 

_________________TD___INT___COMP/ATT___RATING___PCT of Passes

P.Manning_Long___105____45______0.54______112.14______35.71%

T.Brady___Long____54____45______0.43_______77.13______33.48%

 

As you can see, Manning and Brady both throw short about 65% of the time and long about 35% of the time. They have nearly identical short passing numbers across the board, in fact. When throwing long though, similarities evaporate. Manning has nearly double the amount of touchdowns while throwing the same amount of intereceptions, has a completion percentage 11 percentage points higher, leading to an overall QB rating of 112.14 (Which is spectacular) while Brady has a mediocre 77.13.

 

So what does it all mean? I have no idea. All the numbers tell us is that Manning is a much better down field passer than Brady. Any conclusions about who contributes more to their offense is unfounded. It does make the mind wonder, though. Certainly, you wonder if Brady's inability to pass beyond ten yards down field is a major reason why all his "game winning" drives ended with long field goals, and when he finally needed to get all the way down the field (as opposed to coming up 35 yards short) he simply couldn't muster up a vertical passing game.

Maybe its because Brady plays most of his games outdoors amd Manning plays at least half of his games in a climate

controlled building.

[Dawgg]

Another brilliant point.

 

He plays half his games in a DOME!

 

Maybe its because Brady plays most of his games outdoors amd Manning plays at least half of his games in a climate

controlled building.

[Wraith]

All it means is that Manning has Harrison/Wayne/Clark/3rd WR to throw to, whereas Brady has scrubs like Gaffney and Reche Caldwell to throw the long ball.

 

Wrong.

 

If your implication is that NE's scrub wide receivers cannot get open deep while Indianapolis's can, Tom Brady would NOT be throwing deep at NEARLY THE EXACT SAME RATE as Peyton Manning.

 

If the implication is that NE's scrub wide receivers are dropping the deep balls 11% of the time MORE than Indianapolis's are, why are the short passes in traffic not getting dropped at the same rate?

 

Either way, you are reaching.

[Wraith]

Another brilliant point.

 

He plays half his games in a DOME!

 

Now that is a good point. Fortunately they keep stats for that, too.

 

I'm doubtful that separating out the stats by indoors/outdoors will have much effect, though, because the most overwhelming range of passes included in the "down field passing" is the 10 to 20 yard pass, which is not effected by the weather nearly as much as longer throws. These longer throws happen so infrequently as to have little effect compared to the 10 to 20 yard pass. In addition, I feel a quarterback as smart as Tom Brady will throw down field less frequently when it's windy/rainy/snowy, so his numbers will not be impacted much.

[ganesh]

Wrong.

 

If your implication is that NE's scrub wide receivers cannot get open deep while Indianapolis's can, Tom Brady would NOT be throwing deep at NEARLY THE EXACT SAME RATE as Peyton Manning.

 

That is a valid point....But to keep defenses honest you have to go deep once in a while...Otherwise they will put that safety at the line of scrimmage and stop the short ones.

 

If the implication is that NE's scrub wide receivers are dropping the deep balls 11% of the time MORE than Indianapolis's are, why are the short passes in traffic not getting dropped at the same rate?

 

Either way, you are reaching.

 

Because they WRs are not in the same class as a Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne....They can catch passes closer to the line of scrimmage, whereas may be they cannot run precise routes and grab the ball over the CB...Also Brady's short range completion % may be higher because he spreads the ball around to his RBs and TEs....and they might be better ball players than those lousy WRs.