Typical TBD Guy Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 ...and it is impossible for the Ravens to enter the final week fixed in at any of the playoff seeds. Unless the Ravens are completely indifferent to a situation where they can have only the 3rd or 4th seed, it looks like the Bills will be facing their last 2 regular season opponents at full strength. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but unfortunately I don't think I am. Either way, playing the backups is never a guaranteed win either (2004, Week 17). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartyBall4Buffalo Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Good Bring em on. If theres any shot that the bills can make the playoffs I'd rather see the best then back in. Yeah I know we havent been to the postseason since 99, but Id still rather earn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 I posted this in another thread. Updated -- The Definitive "Way for the Week 17 Game to be Meaningless for the Ravens" In an attempt to answer my own question about how to make that game meaningless, I am first listing the records, conference records, and remaining schedule for the teams Baltimore is competing with for seeding. This is a long post, but to make a long story short, there is a way for Baltimore to be LOCKED IN to the #3 seed without any chance of improvement or slippage going into the Week 17 game against us. Therefore, they would be able to rest their starters. In order for this to happen, five games have to go our way, which I list at the bottom. However, all 5 teams are favored by Vegas to win. SD: 12-2, 10-2 AFC, @Sea/Ari Ind: 10-3, 7-2 AFC, Cin/@Hou/Mia Bal: 11-3, 8-2 AFC, @Pit/Buf NE: 10-4, 6-4 AFC, @Jax/@Ten First, comparing SD to Baltimore....If next week SD beats Seattle and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (both are Vegas favorites), then the #1 seed is no longer in play for Baltimore because SD would be 13-2 and Baltimore would be 11-4 with one game remaining. Next, comparing NE to Baltimore...If next week Jax beats NE and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (again, both are Vegas favorites), then it is impossible for NE to catch Baltimore in seeding because NE's conference record would be 6-5 and Baltimore's would be 8-3 with one game remaining. (Note: we learned from the previous posts above that we need KC to beat Jax much more than we need NE to beat Jax. We can actually root for Jax to win next week as long as KC beats Jax the following week in Arrowhead) Finally, comparing Indy to Baltimore...this is the most complicated because it involves the third tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents. If Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and beats Houston next week (Colts favorites in both), the Colts will be 12-3/9-2. If next week Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, the Ravens would be 11-4/8-3, leaving the possibility that both Indy and Balt could still finish 12-4/9-3. The key is the NEXT tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents, which Indy has the advantage in, if both teams should finish 12-4/9-3. If Indy beat the Bengals, the Colts would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Ravens would be 2-2 with the Bills game pending. Obviously 3-2 would not beat 4-1, so the Ravens would have no reason to beat the Bills if they lose to Pittsburgh next week and Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and Houston next week. To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16: (1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then (2) Indy to beat Houston (3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore (4) SD to beat Seattle (5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead) Five games is tough, but all those teams are Vegas favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarthur31 Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 If they clinch the #1 or 2 seeds, then they won't take off that last game. They don't want a 2 week layoff. Here's hoping they get a #3 or 4 (or worse) seed so they rest their starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Too soon to worry, but clearly Ravens could be locked in at #3, or the game could mean difference for either seeding advantage (1v2, 3v4) or by advantage (2v3). Obviously our favorite scenario is if they are locked in at #3, but they aren't going to roll over either way. Right now I'm more focused on getting to that game at 8-7 and having it matter, not what the odds are that we see some backups (which doesn't really have a great history for Bills final weeks anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typical TBD Guy Posted December 18, 2006 Author Share Posted December 18, 2006 To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16:(1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then (2) Indy to beat Houston (3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore (4) SD to beat Seattle (5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead) 870370[/snapback] Fugging fantastic. Nice job, Ozy! I messed up with (5)...forgetting that we can still have Jax beat NE as long as they lose to KC. These scenarios are starting to get a bit ridiculous. I'd still rather see Jax taken care of in Week 16. I think I'm going to take this one day at a time before determining allegiances. Next up: Indy over Cincy tomorrow night, which I believe is a unanimously desired pick regardless of the particular playoff scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Like it really helped us skate past Pitzberg last year, didn't it? The Bills may not make it all the way into the playoffs this year, but the journey sure has been more enjoyable this December than it has the past several years. They're building something really good at OBD. That's music coming from the locker room these days - not back-stabbing jive and gibberish coach-speak. PS Ray Lewis might be scary, but Steve McNair isn't. That could be the real coming-of-age game for JP & Company. They win out - and even if they don't make the Playoffs through all the tie-breakers, they've had a GREAT season! Now, let's all go hold our collective breaths while crossing our fingers, doing the silent incantations and performing the sacred hexes and charms of the Seventh Circle of Secret Initiates which will ensure the most positive outcome we desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corp000085 Posted December 18, 2006 Share Posted December 18, 2006 Like it really helped us skate past Pitzberg last year, didn't it? The Bills may not make it all the way into the playoffs this year, but the journey sure has been more enjoyable this December than it has the past several years. They're building something really good at OBD. That's music coming from the locker room these days - not back-stabbing jive and gibberish coach-speak. PS Ray Lewis might be scary, but Steve McNair isn't. That could be the real coming-of-age game for JP & Company. They win out - and even if they don't make the Playoffs through all the tie-breakers, they've had a GREAT season! Now, let's all go hold our collective breaths while crossing our fingers, doing the silent incantations and performing the sacred hexes and charms of the Seventh Circle of Secret Initiates which will ensure the most positive outcome we desire. 870401[/snapback] mcnair might not even be playing. he had a NASTY gash yesterday on his throwing hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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