Lori Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-1) at BUFFALO BILLS (2-4) SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2006 – 1:00 PM EDT RALPH WILSON STADIUM, ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK TELEVISION: CBS / CBS HD PLAY-BY-PLAY: Greg Gumbel COLOR ANALYST: Dan Dierdorf DIRECTV NFL Sunday Ticket: Channel 709 / Channel 724 (HD) RADIO: Buffalo Bills Radio Network PLAY-BY-PLAY: John Murphy COLOR ANALYST: Mark Kelso SIDELINE REPORTER: Paul Peck Patriots Radio Network PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gil Santos COLOR ANALYST: Gino Cappelletti Sirius Sunday Drive: Channel 143 (Buffalo feed) / Channel 146 (New England feed) REGULAR-SEASON SERIES RECORD: Patriots lead, 51-40-1. New England is 24-21-1 overall in Buffalo, 17-15 at Rich /Ralph Wilson Stadium. PLAYOFF RECORD: Patriots lead, 1-0. LAST TIME IN BUFFALO: December 11, 2005 – Patriots 35, Bills 7 preview Not much to talk about here. New England, tuning up for their playoff drive, ran roughshod over a Bills team in upheaval following an epic collapse in Miami the week before. Things actually looked promising early on, as a 58-yard Losman-to-Evans bomb gave Buffalo a first down at the Patriot 10. The offense shifted into reverse from there, though: after a two-yard loss and a couple of penalties, Losman’s overthrow on 3rd-and-22, intended for Sam Aiken, was picked off by Asante Samuel in the end zone. By the time the Bills converted another first down, the score was 14-0 New England. The second half performance featured two three-and-outs, two more interceptions (including one returned for a TD), and a missed field goal by Buffalo, and two Tom Brady touchdown passes for the visitors. With the score 35-0, most Bills fans were long gone when Josh Reed’s 51-yard catch-and-run finally broke the shutout just before the two-minute warning. LAST MEETING: September 10, 2006 – Patriots 19, Bills 17 preview Couldn’t have asked for a better way to start the season – Takeo Spikes celebrated his return to the lineup by blindsiding Tom Brady on the first play from scrimmage, and London Fletcher scooped up the loose ball to stake Buffalo to a 7-0 lead just twelve seconds into the game. Add a couple of decent drives from the Bills offense and a misfiring Patriot passing attack, and the score was 17-7 heading into halftime. The second half was a different story, though: New England held the Bills without a point – including a fourth-and-one stuff on Willis McGahee deep in the red zone – and the strong running of Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon helped lift the Pats into a tie early in the fourth quarter. And when a penalty on the ensuing kickoff pinned Buffalo inside their own ten-yard line, the stage was set for a big play by the Patriot defense. Ty Warren didn’t disappoint the raucous Gillette Stadium crowd, dumping J.P. Losman in his own end zone for the game-winning safety. The Bills would get one more shot thanks to an interception by rookie safety Donte Whitner, but an illegal-block penalty which nullified a first down, followed by another sack, halted the drive near midfield. The Bills punted with 6:22 left and never touched the ball again. Losman completed 15 of his 23 passes for 164 yards, the only game this season in which he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass. Brady rebounded from a horrific 3-11 start to finish 11-23 for 163 yards, with touchdown passes to Troy Brown and Kevin Faulk. The ground game carried the day – literally – with 183 yards on 41 clock-killing running plays. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PATRIOTS OVERVIEW (2006 RANKINGS) OFFENSE (#11 total yardage, #6 rushing, #18 passing, #t11 scoring): First-round pick Laurence Maroney looks like a star in the making; before the season opener, I surmised Maroney would supplant Corey Dillon in the starting lineup by midseason. That hasn’t happened quite yet, but the two are getting an equal amount of playing time – Maroney actually has ten more rushing attempts – and they give New England a solid one-two punch at the position. Versatile Kevin Faulk will also get some reps, mostly in third-down situations. The offensive line remains the same from last month’s game in Foxborough: LT Matt Light, LG Logan Mankins, C Dan Koppen, RG Stephen Neal, and rookie RT Ryan O’Callaghan. (Only O’Callaghan has missed a start this season.) The Bills got to Tom Brady three times in that game, but he’s only been sacked twice since then… and the team is averaging almost four yards per carry, even with several Brady kneeldowns affecting those numbers. The ageless Troy Brown, drafted the same year as Drew Bledsoe, needs six catches to surpass Stanley Morgan for the franchise reception record. Free-agent pickup Reche Caldwell (Chargers) is still the other starter for now, but that could change as Brady begins to develop a rapport with former Raider Doug Gabriel and second-round pick Chad Jackson. Gabriel was inactive for the first meeting, but he’ll play this time… and he has the size/speed combination that could give the Bills cornerbacks problems. (Already has, in fact: a year ago this weekend, he toasted the Buffalo secondary for five catches and 101 yards in a 38-17 Oakland win.) If Jackson can get past the hamstring issues that have limited him since training camp, he’ll provide a sorely-needed deep threat New England has lacked this season. The Patriots also signed former Houston Texans second-rounder Jabar Gaffney before the bye. With the almost-complete turnover in the wideout corps, the Pats have been featuring a heavy dose of two-TE sets. Ben Watson currently leads the team in both catches and receiving yardage. Fellow first-rounder Daniel Graham missed the Miami game and is questionable again this week; if he can’t go, David Thomas could get some playing time. Factoid: Tom Brady has a 17-1 career record on artificial turf. The only loss? Yup, you guessed it – the 2003 season opener at Ralph Wilson Stadium. (That game also remains the only blemish on his record vs. Buffalo.) Judging solely by his stats, one would think Brady is having a lousy year… but the Patriots just keep on winning, and the passing game should improve as the new crop of receivers becomes more familiar with the playbook. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DEFENSE (#13 total yardage, #8 rushing, #24 passing, #t6 scoring): Everyone knows about Richard Seymour: four consecutive Pro Bowls, one of the best DEs in the league, et cetera, et cetera. But the other end, Ty Warren, might be playing even better than Seymour this season – he leads the team in tackles, and it was Warren who dragged down J.P. Losman for the game-deciding safety in the first meeting. DT Vince Wilfork provides a solid presence in the middle; reserve end Jarvis Green leads the team with 4.5 sacks. (NOTE: Seymour, Warren, and Wilfork are all first-round picks. One could reasonably argue New England’s recent run of success makes a strong case for spending those high draft choices on the big guys up front.) With Tedy Bruschi back from the preseason wrist injury that kept him out of the opener, steady Mike Vrabel shifts back to his normal OLB position. Rosevelt Colvin and Junior Seau remain the other starters, with special-teamers Larry Izzo, Don Davis, and Tully Banta-Cain in reserve. Same story, different season: the Patriots are once again battling injury in the secondary. After breaking a bone in his wrist against Denver, cornerback Ellis Hobbs underwent surgery and missed the Bengals game the following week. (He’s listed as questionable, but played with a cast on the wrist in their last game before the bye.) Asante Samuel starts on the other side; his two pickoffs against Joey Harrington remain the only interceptions by any Pats DB this season. Another CB, Randall Gay, joined Tebucky Jones on I.R. at the end of September, leaving Chad Scott as the #3. Free safety Eugene Wilson (hamstring) hasn’t played since the Denver game in Week 3, but there’s talk that veteran Artrell Hawkins is a better fit in the scheme anyway. Strong safety Rodney Harrison, who recently ‘won’ yet another dirtiest-player poll, is still working his way back from the ripped-up knee that cost him most of last season. James Sanders, the top backup at safety, has fond memories of Ralph Wilson Stadium: last December, he returned the first interception of his NFL career for a touchdown here. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL TEAMS: Rookie Stephen Gostkowski has done an adequate job of stepping into Adam Vinatieri’s shoes, but has already had two kicks blocked in his first five games. (In comparison, ‘Automatic Adam’ had three kicks blocked in ten seasons.) Josh Miller’s 43.4-yard gross punting average doesn’t look that great… but 8 of his 22 kicks have landed inside the 20, and the New England punt-cover squad is leading the league with a microscopic 3.4 yards allowed per return. Kevin Faulk trails only Chicago’s Devin Hester atop the punt-return standings, with a 13.5-yard average. Maroney and Faulk share kick-return duties, with middle-of-the-pack results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK: Last week, the Bills defense allowed one of the worst rushing offenses in the league to exceed their per-game average by the end of their first drive. How will they fare against Maroney and Dillon, both averaging over four yards per carry? Belichick and Co. have had an extra week to prepare some surprises for Losman; that can’t be a good thing. Willis and A-Train both ran well in the first half of the first meeting, but the offense bogged down as the Pats’ run D stiffened… and never gained another first down after the blown fourth-and-one attempt on their first second-half possession. After watching the Bills go into Foxborough and play the Patriots close, I would’ve liked Buffalo’s chances in this game. But on the heels of a discouraging performance against a previously-winless Lions club, in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score might suggest? Not so much. The early ‘hey-maybe-they’re-better-than-we-thought’ optimism is fading, and most fans are back in ‘show-us-this-team-DOESN’T-stink’ mode. Guess that includes me. Can the Bills win this game? Absolutely, if they start playing up to their potential. But will they win? Tough to pick ‘em against anybody right now, much less a well-rested Patriot squad seeking its seventh straight win in the series. Hopefully that trend starts to change this week. See you in Lot 1 Sunday morning, and Go Bills. Links: NFL.com: injury report / Patriots depth chart / Patriots team stats / Bills depth chart / Bills team stats Ourlads.com: Bills depth chart / Patriots depth chart Official team website: Patriots.com Patsfans.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 i look foward to your post each week . thanks for all you put into it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 i look foward to your post each week . thanks for all you put into it . 811376[/snapback] So do I!!! Lori writes better, and knows more about the Bills (as well as football in general) than a lot of people who make a lot of money. This week her post was depressing but true. They are very strong up front on both sides. Maybe we can exploit the rookie RT. I don't know, but it would be oh so great to beat up on the pats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted October 21, 2006 Share Posted October 21, 2006 Good preview Lori. Enjoyed reading it. I think that Chad Jackson is going to start at WR this week. I have a hunch that they're using Troy Brown as a slot guy only this week, perhaps because they plan to use him in some of their nickel/dime packages since the Bills go four wide more often than most. They may feel Brown is better suited to cover either Reed or Parrish (if he plays). Losman making his reads on third down is going to be a critical part of the game; he should have a winning matchup somewhere since the secondary is thin, banged-up and could be missing some of its speed guys. Warren is playing very, very well as you noted. He should receive Pro-Bowl consideration if he keeps playing as he has. I think he has benefited greatly from having Vrabel as the outside linebacker on his side. They have had a lot of issues with field goals, but Gostkowski's kickoffs have been outstanding. Between Gostkowski and Miller (who is just terrific inside the NE 45 and closer), they have been establishing field position in their favor all season. It's quite an underrated aspect of the game, and is a big part of why they are 4-1 despite not really lighting up the stat sheets so far. I'd expect Maroney to get more carries than Dillon. He's at least established himself as 1A to Dillon's 1B at this point. Have fun at the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted October 21, 2006 Author Share Posted October 21, 2006 I think that Chad Jackson is going to start at WR this week. I have a hunch that they're using Troy Brown as a slot guy only this week, perhaps because they plan to use him in some of their nickel/dime packages since the Bills go four wide more often than most. They may feel Brown is better suited to cover either Reed or Parrish (if he plays). Losman making his reads on third down is going to be a critical part of the game; he should have a winning matchup somewhere since the secondary is thin, banged-up and could be missing some of its speed guys. Thanks for the kind words. I didn't see the Miami game, but I'd heard Brown is getting some reps on D again. Fortunately for us, unlike Bledsoe, Losman doesn't have a history of throwing to Troy... I'd expect Maroney to get more carries than Dillon. He's at least established himself as 1A to Dillon's 1B at this point. He certainly impressed in week 1. Plus, early work for LM keeps "Clock-Killin'" Dillon fresh for the fourth quarter. Nice combo to have. Have fun at the game! I certainly hope to, anyway. Bill and the NYC crew are making the trip for this one, and they've been a good-luck charm in the past. Hey Bill, seeya Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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