bartshan-83 Posted September 8, 2004 Share Posted September 8, 2004 ESPN is now reporting that the deal was only worth 23 million. Same link as before: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?id=1877220 peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted September 8, 2004 Share Posted September 8, 2004 A lot of these "deals" get fans in a tizzy over nothing. The deal might be worth $23 on paper, but it requires meeting incentives and staying on the roster. I suspect very few deals actually amount to the value the media quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted September 8, 2004 Share Posted September 8, 2004 A lot of these "deals" get fans in a tizzy over nothing. The deal might be worth $23 on paper, but it requires meeting incentives and staying on the roster. I suspect very few deals actually amount to the value the media quotes. 22693[/snapback] Actually, almost none of them do, since contracts are not guaranteed. Most are reworked well before the contract is up, or the player is cut long before they get all the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBob Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Actually, almost none of them do, since contracts are not guaranteed. Most are reworked well before the contract is up, or the player is cut long before they get all the money. 22761[/snapback] Actually, this happening less now, as GMs are not back-loading contracts as they used. TD tends to deals that are fairly evenly split over the years of the contract, and he keeps the guranteed money to a minimum. Tis way, you are not trrying to re-work the deal at the end because the cap number is so much higher at the back than the front. Actually, this seems like a very reasonable deal in light of the new amount. This means that the new money averaged over 5 years is only $4.6 Million per year. Also notice that he will get just about the average comp over the first two years in the form of bonuses (i.e. $6.75 Million this year and $2 Million next year as roster bonus which averages out to about $4.35 Million per year). The rest will be minimum salaries over those two years probably. These numbers make a bit more sense to me. I was mildly surprised at the $28 Million number because I didn't think Schobel would command a real top-end price on the open market due to his size. I think this is a good deal for both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick in* england Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 See recent TMQs for views on NFL contracts... The Schobel contract for "5 years for $23m" is moot. The fact that we managed to resign Aaron is huge! I am over the moon that we have locked up what promised to be one of the top NFL pass rushers for the future. I have found my new favourite player.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pm73 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 got this from one of my fantasy newsletters. thought it was quite complementary to schobels value. "The Bills had a fever, and the only prescription was more Schobel, baby. Aaron is one of the most underrated pass rushers in fantasy leagues that include individual defensive players." though it speaks of his fantasy value, i believe it is a reflection of his overall value as well. he's underated and compared to other recent DE contracts (winstrom, 14M sb - 4, 7 sacks the last two years) it is very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBob Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 The Schobel contract for "5 years for $23m" is moot. The fact that we managed to resign Aaron is huge! I am over the moon that we have locked up what promised to be one of the top NFL pass rushers for the future. I have found my new favourite player.... 23063[/snapback] So what are saying Nick? That we could have signed him for Grant Wistrom or even Jevon Kearse money and you would have been just as happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndyJay1234 Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 So what are saying Nick? That we could have signed him for Grant Wistrom or even Jevon Kearse money and you would have been just as happy? 23267[/snapback] I love this move. Locking up good to great DE's is critical for this team sucess. The Bills made the right call. Jennings is still good but I looked at Schobel as an absolute must. Pat Williams is a critical player but the drafting on Anderson might make him expendable. I hope not but we have a quality guy backing him up. I look to the Bills actively trying to resign Nate Clements next. I also look in the next draft to the Bills looking for a CB in round one if they are able to deal backinto the round. Picking a CB eary will allow Vincent to move to FS. This completes the Defense. TD has done a solid job this year. I also look to TD fixing the Offensive Line next season. I hate looking too far ahead. Well I do it all the time sooo. TD will fix the line next season with the help of Mcnally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick in* england Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 So what are saying Nick? That we could have signed him for Grant Wistrom or even Jevon Kearse money and you would have been just as happy? 23267[/snapback] Well yeah I would actually. But what i was in fact getting at was the fact that the contract is not that huge. it will be renegotiated after 2 or 3 years for sure... not a huge contract really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBob Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Well yeah I would actually. But what i was in fact getting at was the fact that the contract is not that huge. it will be renegotiated after 2 or 3 years for sure... not a huge contract really. 23365[/snapback] I myself would have been extremely unhappy had TD paid THAT kind of money for Schobel! I think Aaron has done a nice job, but he is undersized and not particularly stout against the run. As for renegotiating his contract in 2-3 years, I doubt it. This contract seems quite reasonable on its face with average of $4.6 Million per year. Moreover, it appears with the roster bonus of $2 Million next year that the contract is hardly back-loaded as contracts have often been in the past. TD does not do backloaded deals just to squeeze a guy into the cap in the present. He typically spreads the money out fairly evenly over the entire length, which is evidenced by the fact that the average compensation for the first two years is almost $4.6 Million without consideration of the salary. The only kind of re-negotiation of this contract will come if Schobel is cut from the team in 2-3 years due to injury or poor play. With only a $6.75 Million bonus, his cap hit for this is only $1.35 Million per year. Even after just two years, he can be cut for virtually no negative cap hit! After three, the dead cap space for the following season would only be $2.7 Million! This is a VERY smart deal by TD, and very healthy for the Bills in terms of cap health for the future. I think that point is highly important to note! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBob Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 I love this move. Locking up good to great DE's is critical for this team sucess.The Bills made the right call. Jennings is still good but I looked at Schobel as an absolute must. Pat Williams is a critical player but the drafting on Anderson might make him expendable. I hope not but we have a quality guy backing him up. I look to the Bills actively trying to resign Nate Clements next. 23279[/snapback] I wouldn't be surprised if he was able to nail down one other guy early on either. Typically, the team does not continue to negotiate into the seaosn because it casues a distraction. Obviously, even though it was publicly stated that the deals to the the three were pulled off of the table, that at least Schobel's agent continued to quietly negotiate until a deal got done. If another reasonable deal could be done with either Pat or JJ, assuming he is not looking to jumpt to Atlanta, TD would probably take that opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 BuffBob- I flat out agree with your assessment that the AS deal seems quite beneficial and dfoable forthe Bills capwise and that though there is flexibility for the Bills if things happen this is not merely a two year and you must redo it deal for them. I also agree that if JJ or PW can reach a reasonable offer with the Bills we sign it, but I actually doubt this will happen and doesn't need to based on what the parties have said and done and their situations. My cut on this is: JJ- Obviously would love to have big bucks but has spoke openly about going home to settle with his next contract (AT I think). Unless the Bills make him an offer he can't refuse it makes sense for him from what I understand are his desires to play out and perform well this season and then he is in the drivers seat as an FA. Even if the injury bug hits him again, unless its a career ender, he still will be in good shape as a starting LT with some accomplishments in this league. Bills- The Bills would love to ink JJ to a long-term deal and bring further order to an OL in disarray. However, they do not want to give away the ranch and the dog to a player with a definite history of injury and given their overall cao structure. The Bills have put themselves in a position by accumulating a number of players with some tackle experience in their history (MW, Price, Teague, McFarland, Tucker. Sobieski and even the aborted effort at Sullivan) or preparing for the eventuality that JJ may be too pricey for their blood. They'd love to sign him long-term and given his history of injury their are some bird-in-the-hand reasons for him to agree to a smaller than FA market deal right now, but the upsides of him waiting are huge and the downsides of him waiting are not quite so huge but still substantial. Boh parties seem prepared for this eventuality and we'll see what happens or if someone blinks. I doubt either will. PW- He has been a difference-maker for us for a long time playing well when teams had him as their sole focus when the rest of the DL was weak and really benefiting from having Big Ted or Adams next to him to draw attention. However, he is an older player (due to his late start as a UDFA) and the next contract may well be his last. PW seems to love playing with Adams but he has seen how Big Ted has scored after the Bills said goodbye and many gave up on him. he would love to sign a cadillac deal abd has little reason to take less than the market will give him. The Bills have prepared for the possibility of life with out PW by hanging in there with former starter Edwards, keeping Bannan around, drafting Anderson. flirting with Gibson and be willing to go with Adams as long as he goes. If PW will sign a deal which places him below the market in the immediate the Bills would love to do it, but are not pressured to do so. In the end, the remaining cap room dictates a lot. Depending upon the details of contracts we do not know and the specifics of an individual deal I agree that the prsopects are there for them to sign one of these players but no pressure is there to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBob Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Actually, this deal keeps sounding better every time I read an article on it because the amount of the deal keeps going down! The latest article on the subject states that the deal averages $3.8 Million per year over 6 years, which means that this is the total value of the deal, not just new money. Also, in my previous calculation, I only divided new money by the added years, but actually new and old money is actually spread out over 6 and not 5 years. $3.8 Million per year is extremely good value for the Bills and I think a very good value for Schobel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 Actually, this deal keeps sounding better every time I read an article on it because the amount of the deal keeps going down! The latest article on the subject states that the deal averages $3.8 Million per year over 6 years, which means that this is the total value of the deal, not just new money. Also, in my previous calculation, I only divided new money by the added years, but actually new and old money is actually spread out over 6 and not 5 years. $3.8 Million per year is extremely good value for the Bills and I think a very good value for Schobel. 24402[/snapback] Yeah, I have found a lot of commentary on TSW bemoaning this deal based on a view that Schobel is an average DE to be quite strange. I have actually viewed myself as one of Schobel's most repetitive critics because I would quite often respond to those who had in the Pro Bowl as soon as he hit double digit sack numbers his second year that this view ignored the fact that Schobel had registered a lot of his sacks by having a pretty constant motor which allowed him to keep after a QB who took too much time trying to find a receiver who got shut down by Winfield and Clements and a D that has been 3/4 good for awhile and finally performed for a full game last year with better personel (Adams, Spikes and Milloy added a lot to the puzzle) and a scheme (the zone blitz) which made up for a weak pass rush from our DL. I harkened back to the lousy tackling angles taken by Schobel as a rookie against Brunell and him being overpowered by the Fins leading to a GW TD as examples of his rookie play, That being true and said, Schobel has improved his technique and game each year he has been here and is on the verge of a potential break-out year if he continues at this rate of improvement. Add to that, as you point out each time you read about this deal the raw numbers and overpayment that every athlete gets looks better and better for the Bills. The belly-aching about this deal looks better and better each time I hear about it from not only a sense of the sport, but also from a sense of the business. I think a lot of the moaning is actually motivated by fan dislike for TD since it is not based in any sense of the game that I see or even any sense of the business. I think all Bills fans should be pleased as punch about this one from all I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartshan-83 Posted September 9, 2004 Author Share Posted September 9, 2004 When I posted this, I was trying to emphasize that the deal went from good to even better (by dropping from a reported 28 to 23). I think it is a great deal and I believe that Schobel was the biggest priority among the 3 FAs for next year. He got pennies compared to what Kearse and other big namers got and he becomes more productive each year. I think this is some of the best news of the offseason. peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBob Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 I think a lot of the moaning is actually motivated by fan dislike for TD since it is not based in any sense of the game that I see or even any sense of the business. I think all Bills fans should be pleased as punch about this one from all I see. 24417[/snapback] Well, yes of course. If you can no longer B word because he didn't re-sign the guy, you need to B word because it was too expensive! I agree Schobel is no Kearse. He is undersized and is often blown out of running plays. BUT, I agree he has consistently improved his game every year, he is tough as nails and he is (dare I say it?) rarely injured (OK, I am furiously pounding on my wood desk LOL!). I think at the price for which we no have him locked up until he turns roughly 30, he is a good value. If he continues to improve his game as he has, he will be a bargain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick in* england Posted September 9, 2004 Share Posted September 9, 2004 if the numbers reported are true - this is a truly superb contract for the BUffalo Bills. Go Aaron! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts