football outsiders prognosis of DB in dallas

[dave mcbride]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings...cat=16#comments

 

Even with the additions on defense, the big free agent story in Dallas is obviously the acquisition of new quarterback Drew Bledsoe. Dallas signed Drew to a “three-year, $14 million” contract, which in reality is a two-year deal with only $5.5 million guaranteed. It’s really hard for me to say this, since I’m no fan of Drew Bledsoe, but for a quarterback with his pedigree – only two seasons removed from a 4000-yard, Pro Bowl season – Dallas signed a great deal.

 

If Bledsoe is going to be a successful quarterback anywhere in the NFL, it will be in Dallas. They should have a top-flight running back in Julius Jones, a very good-to-great pass catching tight end in Jason Witten, and, most importantly, an offensive line that has ranked in the top half of the league in adjusted sack rate for the past two seasons. With the reported addition of Pro Bowl guard Marco Rivera, the line should give Bledsoe more than enough time to get off a pass. Bledsoe is also rejoining Bill Parcells, the coach under whom he had his most success. The Tuna has a history of getting good performance out of veteran quarterbacks who have been left for dead (see Vinny Testaverde version 2.0 and, to a lesser extent, Vinny Testaverde version 3.0).

 

But Drew Bledsoe isn’t the first veteran quarterback to struggle for a few seasons later in his career. Let’s check out some similarity scores to see whichquarterbacks since 1978 have been the most like Bledsoe’s 2002-2004 over a three-year period, to see if we can learn anything about what we can expect Drew to do over his likely two-year stay in Dallas.

 

(The Football Outsiders method for computing similarity scores was introduced here, if you would like an explanation. This list compares Bledsoe’s three seasons to the listed player’s three seasons, one by one, and then takes the “harmonic mean” of the three similarity scores. That’s a fancy math term that means that the players that come out as most comparable are the players with a similar career path, not the players whose three year totals are most similar to Bledsoe’s three year totals. The listed years here are the third year of the examined period. )

 

Lname FName YEAR TEAM POS G COMP ATT PaYD PaTD INT

Mitchell Scott 1997 det qb 16 293 509 3484 19 14

Testaverde Vinny 1998 nyj qb 15 259 421 3256 29 7

Lomax Neil 1986 crd qb 14 240 421 2583 13 12

Everett Jim 1992 ram qb 16 281 475 3323 22 18

Esiason Boomer 1995 nyj qb 12 221 389 2275 16 15

Everett Jim 1996 nor qb 15 267 464 2797 12 16

Kelly Jim 1995 buf qb 15 255 458 3130 22 13

Jaworski Ron 1984 phi qb 13 234 427 2754 16 14

Ferguson Joe 1983 buf qb 16 281 508 2995 26 25

Brunell Mark 2002 jax qb 15 245 416 2788 17 7

 

Look at that. Vinny 2: Electric Bugaloo is Drew’s #2 most similar player. For the most part, this isn’t that great of a list for optimistic Cowboy fans. You never want to see Scott Mitchell as the #1 most similar player to your new starting quarterback. Boomer Esiason, Jim Kelly, and Ron Jaworski were never close to their old selves after the seasons listed here. We’ve all seen how well Mark Brunell has played the past two seasons. However, there is hope on this list. Neil Lomax was a Pro Bowl quarterback in 1987 and had threw for over 3000 yards the next season in 1988. 1992 Jim Everett still had a few solid seasons left in the tank, although by 1996 “Chris” was feeling the effects of his infamous attack on Jim Rome.

 

Of course, Lomax and Everett are also the youngest quarterbacks on the list, with only six and seven years of experience respectively. I’m not sure if they make the best comparison for a 12-year veteran. If the past is any predictor of future success, my initial reaction in favor of the Bledsoe signing will turn out to be yet another time where I’m wrong.

[stuckincincy]

Not to rain on the parade, but Esaison returned for a short stint in Cincy in 1997 and started to tear it up, was named Off Player of the Month, but owner Mike Brown sat him down because he didn't want Norman's contract incentives to kick in.

 

7 games| 118 186 63.4 1478 7.9 13 2

[PromoTheRobot]

Being a #1 overall has it's benefits...like never having to admit that you actually suck. If DB was an undrafted FA, he would have been shown the door ages ago. "Yawn...yeah, yeah...DB can play in the right situation....blah, blah, blah!" How about ACTUALLY getting the job done once???

 

PTR

[duey]

Not to rain on the parade, but Esaison returned for a short stint in Cincy in 1997 and started to tear it up, was named Off Player of the Month, but owner Mike Brown sat him down because he didn't want Norman's contract incentives kick in.

 

7 games| 118 186  63.4 1478  7.9 13  2

269371[/snapback]

 

Damn...that's right. I remember that very clearly. Mike Brown - douchebag