Some thoughts re draft, trades and our front office

[jahnyc]

Some thoughts below:

 

1. We will see whether the Bills bet appropriately that Watkins will be a star for the team. For me, the bigger bet that is being made by the front office and coaching staff is that EJ is our franchise QB. If anything, this second bet seems to be the riskier bet, particularly without a number one pick next year if EJ fails to deliver this year. This is a double bet, and for Watkins to be successful, we need EJ to prove that he is a quality NFL quarterback.

 

2. The Bills have added some depth this year in many positions through free agency, the draft, and trades, including at the linebacker, the offensive line and at running back positions. What I do not understand is the failure to address the back-up QB situation. I assume this means that the front office and coaches are satisfied with Lewis and Tuel. Based on their play last year, I would not be too comfortable. Maybe the Bills will add another veteran QB. I hope they do, but they will need to do it soon. We all experienced what happened when the Bills tried adding some veterans at the end of the preseason and early in the season. The learning curve for the offense was too steep and the new QBs could not immediately contribute.

 

3. Not sure what to make of the Stevie Johnson trade. It does seem that we take a step forward and two steps back at times. Can Watkins play at a quality starter level in his first season? Will he be better than SJ would have been this year or would the two of them playing together been the best scenario for the offense this year?

 

4. With SJ traded, who will mentor this group of young wide receivers? Maybe SJ was not the right person for this role, but it seems to me that this group could use a veteran WR presence. I do not think Williams is that guy.

 

5. I like Whaley's passion and drive for the Bills to make the playoffs this year, but if he is going to be successful, he also needs to have wisdom, patience and judgment. I am a little worried that he has not developed all of these characteristics to this point. The other concern is that the front office and coaching staff know that the next owner will clean house if they fail to make the playoffs again this year. This is a lot of pressure, but there still needs to be some oversight so that the future is not mortgaged by the front office so that they can show the team is improving in the short term.

 

6. I think the overall roster is better, but I am not sure if our talent level surpasses any of the teams in our division on an overall basis. This means that it will come down to coaching, and I do not think that Marrone is a better coach than Bellichik. We will find out if he is a better coach than Ryan and Philbin. I have my doubts.

 

7. Still seems like we give up more when we make trades than we get when we trade away picks or players. I thought we gave up way too much for Bryce Brown. Didn't we trade Lynch for a fourth round pick and a conditional pick? I like Watkins a lot, but the price for trading up was very steep.

 

8. Similar to the point above about making trades, it also seems that we overpay for players in free agency. SJ's contract was above market for his play, and we are paying Mario Williams much more than any other defensive end is getting. Even McKelvin is overpaid based on the contracts that CBs have been getting in free agency the last two years.

[thurman34]

1. Completely agree, it's all about EJ.

2. The backup qb market is very dry right now. I do think that addressing the qb via the draft may have been prudent, especially in the 6th or 7th rounds (mccarron, mettenberger, etc.)

3. Too many cooks in the kitchen, we need reps for the younger receivers. We know what we had with Stevie...above average, but he's already peaked. Not a great locker room guy and not a great leader.

4. Agree, would be nice to have a veteran presence. Not sure how that will shake out.

5. No question that Whaley has a different style than his predecessors. I don't believe he's being aggressive just to save his job, but I'm sure it's in the back of his mind. It's cool to see a GM that is confident in the team. I think that type of thinking trickles down to the coaching staff and players.

6. Roster talent has significantly improved in the last two years. Coaching staff is better overall. I'm curious with D-coordinator change as a less aggressive scheme scares me a bit. All we need is a big step forward by the O and a step back by the D.

7. I definitely thought we gave up too much for Brown...unless, of course, he's good. Giving up a 3rd rounder for a good RB is a good price.

8. FA is all about overpaying, nothing you can do about it. That's why it's best to build through the draft and just fill certain holes through FA.

[transient]

1) The current regime put their eggs in the EJ basket well before this weekend. They went out of their way to bring in a shiny new toy, a couple of big uglies, and more insurance in the backfield in an effort to ensure that they're giving him every chance to succeed. On top of that, no playoffs this year and a new owner cleans house. They don't have the luxury of worrying about next year's draft. Makes sense to me.

2) The Bills tried to cover their bases last year, but a slippery mat, and a hit to the head took care of that. Give Lewis and Dixon some actual prep time in the system and they will be better than any rookie in terms of insurance. Tuel... meh.

3) SJ had a knack for coming up big until you needed him. And when he let the team down, it was never his fault (it was His fault). Better to let the young guys play without the mentorship of someone who so often couldn't be man enough to own his own mistakes.

4) Wisdom, patience, and judgement in the form of Levy, no one, and Nix has consistently missed the playoffs. Maybe someone with a win now approach to building a team will fare better. Besides, Whaley has shown more willingness in a single draft to find a way to get what he wants to succeed this year than we've seen in the last decade combined. I, for one, found it refreshing. Amazing what a GM with an understanding of cellular technology can do.

5) Year one of a coaches tenure is always in some part roster evaluation. As we turn this roster over, I'm interested in seeing what Marrone's plan is. Loss of Byrd and a few bit players aside, the 2014 version looks to have a true #1 receiver, a beefed up o-line, a better cast of run stuffers, and likely 3 QBs with a full season and offseason in the system. These pieces in place last year and I'm betting our coaching staff looks better than what you're giving them credit for.

6) I think the Brown trade was predicated on the BC back being picked. Plus, it appears, if I'm understanding it correctly, that the pick is a 4th next year, unless Stevie kicks in the incentive to make the SF pick a 3rd, in which case it becomes a 3rd in 2016. This for a proven NFL player as opposed to a questionable draft pick.

7) Until the Bills are a "destination" frachise with a chance to win the Lombardi every year, they will have to overpay for players, same as every team in the bottom third of the league. Be upset about it if you want, but it is a fact of life.

Edited May 11, 2014 by transient