Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 (edited) OK, here's a little thought exercise for you football gurus during the "slow time" before the draft. This was sparked by a comment that typically to get a successful QB, one needs to draft with the #1 pick. Between 1998 to present, there have been 26 QB taken with the 1st 10 picks in the draft. There have been 12 QB drafted at #1 overall I ranked them (based upon personal perception and certain fave QB parameters) as "I want him" "hasn't (or didn't) quite work out as planned" "outright bust or looks like one" "Didn't quite work out as planned" is a QB who played at the NFL level for several years, showed some flashes, but ultimately didn't become The Man (the game-changing leader) his team hoped for with a high pick. I came up with the following: For the #1 picks, 6 "I want him" 3 "DQW" 3 "OB" For the #1-10 picks, 9 "I want him" 7 "DQW" 9 "OB" (edit: and one guy I can't make up my mind about yet) Your challenge: What names would you put in these bins? Would you change the #s? Suggestion: note, but don't focus on, W-L record. That's really a separate Q: whether acquiring a talented QB is sufficient to change a team. I recommend pro-football-reference draft finder as a helpful tool for this challenge The statistically-minded can note that I give about 50% odds of finding the "I want him!" guy at #1 overall and 35% in the top 10 picks, but that isn't really my point - more curious about how people see various QB Edited April 6, 2013 by Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 OK, here's a little thought exercise for you football gurus during the "slow time" before the draft. This was sparked by a comment that typically to get a successful QB, one needs to draft with the #1 pick. Between 1998 to present, there have been 26 QB taken with the 1st 10 picks in the draft. There have been 12 QB drafted at #1 overall I ranked them (based upon personal perception and certain fave QB parameters) as "I want him" "hasn't (or didn't) quite work out as planned" "outright bust or looks like one" "Didn't quite work out as planned" is a QB who played at the NFL level for several years, showed some flashes, but ultimately didn't become The Man (the game-changing leader) his team hoped for with a high pick. I came up with the following: For the #1 picks, 6 "I want him" 3 "DQW" 3 "OB" For the #1-10 picks, 9 "I want him" 7 "DQW" 9 "OB" Your challenge: What names would you put in these bins? Would you change the #s? Suggestion: note, but don't focus on, W-L record. That's really a separate Q: whether acquiring a talented QB is sufficient to change a team. I recommend pro-football-reference draft finder as a helpful tool for this challenge The statistically-minded can note that I give about 50% odds of finding the "I want him!" guy at #1 overall and 35% in the top 10 picks, but that isn't really my point - more curious about how people see various QB Okay, I'll bite... For the #1s, here's what I'm guessing you did: I want him: P. Manning, M. Vick, E. Manning, M. Stafford, C. Newton, A. Luck DQW: A. Smith, S. Bradford, C. Palmer OB: T. Couch, J. Russell, D. Carr For part 2, I have a slight issue, since there are 26 QBs and your numbers only total 25...nevertheless, here's what I'm guessing you said: I want him: all the guys listed above, plus M. Ryan, RG3, & P. Rivers DQW: all the guys listed above, plus McNabb, Harrington, Leftwich, and Sanchez OB: all the guys listed above, plus Leaf, A. Smith, Leinart, Young, Gabbert, and Locker (?) I'm guessing the guy you left out was Tannehill...how'd I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 Cool! For the #1s, here's what I'm guessing you did: I want him: P. Manning, M. Vick, E. Manning, M. Stafford, C. Newton, A. Luck DQW: A. Smith, S. Bradford, C. Palmer OB: T. Couch, J. Russell, D. Carr Cool! The only switch I have with you, is I have Palmer as "I want him" - not for what he is now, but for what he was his 1st 4 years in the league which was a pretty solid QB who took his team to the playoffs. I think he got worn down by a crappy team after his injury. I have Vick as a "didn't quite work out as planned" - even if you like Vick, I think it must be conceded that when your "franchise guy" goes to jail rather than starting his 6th season, it "didn't quite work out as planned". For part 2, I have a slight issue, since there are 26 QBs and your numbers only total 25...nevertheless, here's what I'm guessing you said: I want him: all the guys listed above, plus M. Ryan, RG3, & P. Rivers DQW: all the guys listed above, plus McNabb, Harrington, Leftwich, and Sanchez OB: all the guys listed above, plus Leaf, A. Smith, Leinart, Young, Gabbert, and Locker (?) I'm guessing the guy you left out was Tannehill...how'd I do? Ooops... fixed now. I want him: right on, RGIII, Ryan, Rivers DQW: Locker, McNabb, Sanchez, Leftwich OB: Gabbert, Vince Young, Leinart, Harrington, Leaf, Akili Smith That's possibly generous to Locker and possibly mean to Harrington but man, when you draft a guy 3rd overall, you kinda want more than 2 losing seasons of 56% completions and more INTs than TDs. And you're right, I left out Tannehill - he showed flashes, give him a couple years, and I neglected to account for that Pretty dang close. I think the bottom line is, whatever a top QB is, we all know him when we see him - if you find yourself debating whether mediocre guy A is better than mediocre guy B, it's probably a sign that at best, things didn't quite work out as planned. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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